Your Thoughts on ND-Syracuse

Submitted by Swayze Howell Sheen on November 16th, 2018 at 1:46 PM

Not a great slate this weekend, but I'm super interested in the ND-Syracuse game. Something tells me that Syracuse might win. Not sure what that would do for UM chances at the playoff, but I always enjoy an Irish loss.

Your thoughts on this game, on others?

For your viewing pleasure, Syracuse coach Dino Babers after a previous big game:

Click here

 

Comments

UP to LA

November 16th, 2018 at 3:05 PM ^

The committee is unreasonably high on the SEC, but I don't see any evidence that they have a thing for ND or OU this year. If ND loses, we likely leap over them, and we're still comfortably ahead of a one-loss OU or a two-loss Georgia. And if Georgia beats Bama, a Notre Dame loss opens up a 4th spot after those two and Clemson.

Carcajou

November 16th, 2018 at 7:44 PM ^

I'd rather play Bama first so we get a full month to prepare for them instead of a week.

 

Not me. I'd rather give Alabama a week to prepare against Michigan (rather than Clemson, who they'd be expecting), not a month. I'd also expect to get more banged up versus Bama than Clemson or ND/Georgia/OK. And would rather not face them at full strength if it can be avoided.

I love Michigan's coaching staff and roster, but do not understimate Alabama in the least.

 

 

 

dotslashderek

November 16th, 2018 at 5:10 PM ^

Not picking on you but the "domer loss is bad for us" take is wrong and has been wrong for weeks.

ND losing drops them behind us and is a negligible impact on percieved SOS.  With a limited 4 spots a loss from any team ahead of us is unambiguously good with the sole exception of alabama because every single outlier rating by the committee (vs ap, coaches, s&p+, etc) is related to them hedging their bets against a potential bama loss to georgia.

Cheers.

Paps

November 16th, 2018 at 4:44 PM ^

Yeah I feel like this is the type of game Notre Dame (or literally any other team) would overlook/stumble on when its their like 5th toughest game. Like if ND had to play a top 20 USC, Mich, Stanford, FSU, etc and then Cuse is looming.... Reminds of Clemson's game @BC last week.  I think ND takes this

mfan_in_ohio

November 16th, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^

That would be interesting.  Alabama loses to Auburn then beats Georgia.  Both teams are 12-1 with conference championships, but Bama has a better win and worse loss, and their nonconference schedule is absolute trash (Louisville, Arkansas St., LA-Lafayette, and the Citadel).  Plus their conference schedule was weak; their division crossover opponents were Missouri and Tennessee.  Who cares if the SEC has all these ranked teams if Alabama skips half of them?   

Alabama's ranked wins in this scenario are a neutral site win over Georgia, a road win over LSU, and a home win over Mississippi State.  A&M could get ranked, but they'd have to beat LSU to do it.  Plus their loss would be to a team that would barely crack the top 25.

In contrast, in this scenario Michigan would have ranked wins over OSU (road), Penn State (home), possibly ranked division champ Northwestern (twice, road and neutral), possibly ranked MSU (road), and a loss to #2 ND (road). 

Unfortunately, the committee uses "wins over winning P5 programs" as a metric, and since many SEC teams are starting the season with 4 wins by virtue of 3 cupcakes and a crappy P5 team, Alabama is guaranteed to do better in this metric.

gustave ferbert

November 16th, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^

assuming we win out, the CFP will not take a one loss alabama team (assuming they lose to UGA in the SEC title game) over us who would be the B1G champs who went undefeated in their conference. 

If we go undefeated in the conference that would be the first time in the last five years for a team to do so.  If they get slighted out of the CFP that would be outrageous. 

The Mad Hatter

November 16th, 2018 at 2:47 PM ^

I don't necessarily disagree, but I just don't understand the reasoning behind it.  Why would Alabama get in over us, with the same number of losses, one fewer win, and the loss being their last game played, which also happened to be the fucking conference championship.

I would be fucking livid if that happened.  Like couch burning pissed.

ijohnb

November 16th, 2018 at 2:56 PM ^

The reasoning is that Alabama has nearly a 10 year track record of being a historically dominant football team/program and that this team is, even by their standards, incredibly good.  And that if Georgia beats this Alabama team, that must mean that they are a great team too.  Nobody, and I mean nobody, on a national scale, is giving any indication that they would take such a loss to mean that Alabama may have merely been overrated, and I don't really see the committee concluding that either.

It is not really Alabama/Georgia that is the problem for Michigan right now.  It is an undefeated ND team that beat Michigan and a really bad BIG West. 

Frankly, I don't think Alabama is going to lose.  They just played two good teams back to back weeks and neither teamed threatened to score a point.  Georgia is a step up from those teams but they are going to have to play the game of their life and get lucky to be in the game.

raleighwood

November 16th, 2018 at 3:17 PM ^

Not so consensus.  I just randomly Googled "Can Alabama Lose To Georgia And Make The Playoffs" and the first article that came up was from Sports Illustrated (a national publication, right?) and it was suggested that Michigan is a one loss team that could be ahead of Alabama.  It added caveats regarding the details of Bama's loss (controversial call, 3OT.....).....but they still suggested that Michigan would go.

Also, the Sporting News indicated that, "Michigan would be the best bet to win that argument against the Tide" when referencing one loss teams that could be ahead of Alabama.  

I live in Jacksonville, FL and the local person responsible for picking Gator Bowl (or whatever they call it now) teams was on the radio earlier this week and he suggested that the SEC could get two teams in......if Michigan loses to OSU.

I think that we have different definitions of consensus.

In other news, the Gator Bowl guy projected that they'd be taking NC State if they go with an ACC team.  It'll probably be MSU or Wisconsin if they pick a B1G team.  The SEC team is undecided....but they'd love Florida if they lose another game and fall that far.