Your Thoughts on ND-Syracuse
Not a great slate this weekend, but I'm super interested in the ND-Syracuse game. Something tells me that Syracuse might win. Not sure what that would do for UM chances at the playoff, but I always enjoy an Irish loss.
Your thoughts on this game, on others?
For your viewing pleasure, Syracuse coach Dino Babers after a previous big game:
November 16th, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
An ND loss is good for us.
November 16th, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^
If ND loses to Syracuse, the committee would drop them and us 5 spots and justify it by saying we lost to a team that sucks.
November 16th, 2018 at 3:05 PM ^
The committee is unreasonably high on the SEC, but I don't see any evidence that they have a thing for ND or OU this year. If ND loses, we likely leap over them, and we're still comfortably ahead of a one-loss OU or a two-loss Georgia. And if Georgia beats Bama, a Notre Dame loss opens up a 4th spot after those two and Clemson.
November 16th, 2018 at 3:06 PM ^
New top 4 would be
Alabama
Georgia
LSU
Florida
November 16th, 2018 at 3:26 PM ^
Kentucky feels your disrespect.
November 16th, 2018 at 5:52 PM ^
Mississippi State would be lurking at #6 too.
November 16th, 2018 at 6:17 PM ^
Auburn would be 3 to prop up a bama win
November 16th, 2018 at 3:49 PM ^
Yes, we do want ND to lose. And if ND is going to shit the bed we'd rather it happen against top 15 ranked Syracuse than unranked and pretty crappy USC. Syracuse is a good football team. USC is not so good. A good loss for the one team that beat us is OK for Michigan. Top 4 would be secure if we won out.
November 16th, 2018 at 3:50 PM ^
If ND loses, we move to 3 and the committee gets to sneak in their second SEC team of choice.
November 16th, 2018 at 4:17 PM ^
Plus, we avoid the dreaded #4 seed matchup vs. Alabama if they win out.
November 16th, 2018 at 5:24 PM ^
We're gonna have to beat them in one of the games, most likely.
November 16th, 2018 at 6:43 PM ^
I'd rather play Bama first so we get a full month to prepare for them instead of a week.
November 16th, 2018 at 7:44 PM ^
I'd rather play Bama first so we get a full month to prepare for them instead of a week.
Not me. I'd rather give Alabama a week to prepare against Michigan (rather than Clemson, who they'd be expecting), not a month. I'd also expect to get more banged up versus Bama than Clemson or ND/Georgia/OK. And would rather not face them at full strength if it can be avoided.
I love Michigan's coaching staff and roster, but do not understimate Alabama in the least.
November 16th, 2018 at 5:10 PM ^
Not picking on you but the "domer loss is bad for us" take is wrong and has been wrong for weeks.
ND losing drops them behind us and is a negligible impact on percieved SOS. With a limited 4 spots a loss from any team ahead of us is unambiguously good with the sole exception of alabama because every single outlier rating by the committee (vs ap, coaches, s&p+, etc) is related to them hedging their bets against a potential bama loss to georgia.
Cheers.
November 16th, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^
ND stumbles. 24-21 Syracuse
November 16th, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^
The fact that Syracuse is considered as one of ND's biggest hurdles this season is telling. Unfortunately I don't seen them losing this game.
November 16th, 2018 at 4:44 PM ^
Yeah I feel like this is the type of game Notre Dame (or literally any other team) would overlook/stumble on when its their like 5th toughest game. Like if ND had to play a top 20 USC, Mich, Stanford, FSU, etc and then Cuse is looming.... Reminds of Clemson's game @BC last week. I think ND takes this
November 16th, 2018 at 3:05 PM ^
Summed up my thoughts, I would be very happy but happier if basketball pummels GW
November 16th, 2018 at 4:50 PM ^
that may be the halftime score. way more points than that will be scored.
November 16th, 2018 at 1:50 PM ^
If anyone ahead of us loses that is a good thing, even Alabama.
November 16th, 2018 at 2:02 PM ^
not sure about that. I still think a 1 loss bama team would edge out UM.
November 16th, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^
Unless that loss is to Auburn...
November 16th, 2018 at 2:47 PM ^
If anything, Auburn is the one loss Bama can afford.
November 16th, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
yeah, but the 1-loss bama plays 1-loss georgia.
that's good!
(the toppings contain potassium benzoate)
November 16th, 2018 at 6:45 PM ^
A plus one for the Simpsons Halloween reference...
November 16th, 2018 at 9:06 PM ^
November 16th, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^
That would be interesting. Alabama loses to Auburn then beats Georgia. Both teams are 12-1 with conference championships, but Bama has a better win and worse loss, and their nonconference schedule is absolute trash (Louisville, Arkansas St., LA-Lafayette, and the Citadel). Plus their conference schedule was weak; their division crossover opponents were Missouri and Tennessee. Who cares if the SEC has all these ranked teams if Alabama skips half of them?
Alabama's ranked wins in this scenario are a neutral site win over Georgia, a road win over LSU, and a home win over Mississippi State. A&M could get ranked, but they'd have to beat LSU to do it. Plus their loss would be to a team that would barely crack the top 25.
In contrast, in this scenario Michigan would have ranked wins over OSU (road), Penn State (home), possibly ranked division champ Northwestern (twice, road and neutral), possibly ranked MSU (road), and a loss to #2 ND (road).
Unfortunately, the committee uses "wins over winning P5 programs" as a metric, and since many SEC teams are starting the season with 4 wins by virtue of 3 cupcakes and a crappy P5 team, Alabama is guaranteed to do better in this metric.
November 16th, 2018 at 3:39 PM ^
In that scenario, Georgia would be eliminated with its second loss, likely putting both Michigan and Bama in. Wazzu and Oklahoma won't have the resumes to match a 12-1 Michigan.
November 16th, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^
When you lose still matters. No team that loses a conference championship game this year is making it into the playoffs.
November 16th, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^
assuming we win out, the CFP will not take a one loss alabama team (assuming they lose to UGA in the SEC title game) over us who would be the B1G champs who went undefeated in their conference.
If we go undefeated in the conference that would be the first time in the last five years for a team to do so. If they get slighted out of the CFP that would be outrageous.
November 16th, 2018 at 2:40 PM ^
It may be outrageous but it is nearly consensus that if Alabama lost to Georgia in the SEC title game that both would be in and UM would be out.
Seriously, pretty much the only place where that is not a given is on this blog.
November 16th, 2018 at 2:47 PM ^
I don't necessarily disagree, but I just don't understand the reasoning behind it. Why would Alabama get in over us, with the same number of losses, one fewer win, and the loss being their last game played, which also happened to be the fucking conference championship.
I would be fucking livid if that happened. Like couch burning pissed.
November 16th, 2018 at 2:56 PM ^
The reasoning is that Alabama has nearly a 10 year track record of being a historically dominant football team/program and that this team is, even by their standards, incredibly good. And that if Georgia beats this Alabama team, that must mean that they are a great team too. Nobody, and I mean nobody, on a national scale, is giving any indication that they would take such a loss to mean that Alabama may have merely been overrated, and I don't really see the committee concluding that either.
It is not really Alabama/Georgia that is the problem for Michigan right now. It is an undefeated ND team that beat Michigan and a really bad BIG West.
Frankly, I don't think Alabama is going to lose. They just played two good teams back to back weeks and neither teamed threatened to score a point. Georgia is a step up from those teams but they are going to have to play the game of their life and get lucky to be in the game.
November 16th, 2018 at 3:03 PM ^
So what you're saying is that when we beat Alabama in the playoff, our team will be hailed as the greatest team in the history of ever.
I can live with that.
November 16th, 2018 at 3:19 PM ^
Exactly.
November 17th, 2018 at 8:39 PM ^
If Alabama went with one loss, then that would mean they take precedence over another one loss school that is a conference champion.
CFP would lose all credibility if they did that.
November 16th, 2018 at 3:17 PM ^
Not so consensus. I just randomly Googled "Can Alabama Lose To Georgia And Make The Playoffs" and the first article that came up was from Sports Illustrated (a national publication, right?) and it was suggested that Michigan is a one loss team that could be ahead of Alabama. It added caveats regarding the details of Bama's loss (controversial call, 3OT.....).....but they still suggested that Michigan would go.
Also, the Sporting News indicated that, "Michigan would be the best bet to win that argument against the Tide" when referencing one loss teams that could be ahead of Alabama.
I live in Jacksonville, FL and the local person responsible for picking Gator Bowl (or whatever they call it now) teams was on the radio earlier this week and he suggested that the SEC could get two teams in......if Michigan loses to OSU.
I think that we have different definitions of consensus.
In other news, the Gator Bowl guy projected that they'd be taking NC State if they go with an ACC team. It'll probably be MSU or Wisconsin if they pick a B1G team. The SEC team is undecided....but they'd love Florida if they lose another game and fall that far.
November 16th, 2018 at 3:50 PM ^
It's not consensus at all. Alabama's quality wins would be LSU, Miss St, and the Citadel? We have better wins and more of them with a win over Ohio State, and that's truly what the committee values.
November 16th, 2018 at 5:51 PM ^
I've been actually hearing more people saying Michigan would be in over Alabama in this scenario. Including Greg MacElroy, a former Crimson Tide player and current analyst.
November 16th, 2018 at 7:08 PM ^
As outrageous as the Big Ten ADs keeping a clearly superior Michigan team out of the Rose Bowl in 1974?
November 16th, 2018 at 8:28 PM ^
Or keeping 2006 michigan out of the BCS MNC game for losing to #1 osu when they were #2 in favor of Florida who lost to an unranked team because Michigan already had "their shot"?
Oh, wait, and then Having a BAMA LSU rematch in virtually the same situation just a few years later?
November 16th, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^
Therefore it's still a good thing. Because a 0 loss bama definitely would.
I'm flabbergasted by the number of people that are rooting for 0 loss teams to stay undefeated.
November 16th, 2018 at 1:50 PM ^
Syracuse at 12 is being crazy generous. High ceiling, but very rarely scrape it. I think ND wins by a couple scores.
November 16th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
Eh, they are a bit overrated but they also had Clemson beat until they blew it with turnovers.
November 16th, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^
A Clemson team with a 3rd string Quarterback.
November 16th, 2018 at 2:53 PM ^
Agree. Cuse has played nobody. ND in a blowout.
November 16th, 2018 at 3:32 PM ^
What good has "almost wins" done for us. Not a damn thing.
November 16th, 2018 at 6:25 PM ^
Syracuse picked up 10 points on Clemson turnovers at the 30 and 10 yard lines. Kind of like MSU's score against Michigan. This game was all Clemson except the score and the turnovers. Syracuse is overated.
November 16th, 2018 at 2:08 PM ^
I think ND is a pretty good football team. Their D isn't soul crushing like Michigan's but Tillery is a beast in the middle and they do a good job of getting to opposing QBs. I think ND wins by 2 TDs.
Then unimaginably loses by 2 TDs to USC ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
November 16th, 2018 at 6:41 PM ^
I think ND losing to USC is actually more likely than losing to Syracuse. But I'm not picking them to lose either. I think they beat Syracuse 37-20, and USC 27-17.