Your Final 4 and why
This is my second favorite time of year for sports. How do you top March Madness (except for football season)?
What is your final 4? As much or as little detail as you want.
Mine is Michigan, Virginia, Purdue and Duke.
Why?
Michigan - because I'm a massive homer and if the layoff doesn't hurt them, I think they can beat Carolina if they shoot well. Carolina followed by Xavier or Gonzaga isn't nice, but I'd rather lose than win picking against us when we have a chance.
Virginia - holy shit are they good.
Purdue - we beat them because they missed everything they shot (except Haas). Kudos to our defense, but if they were more disciplined about pushing it inside the whole way until the other team changes defenses to try and stop it (and then raining threes)... I guess I think that on paper Purdue is a massive problem for anyone unless they go stone cold from the field like they did against us.
Duke - I hate Duke. But, I always pick against a Bill Self coached team in a close matchup (although I think Kansas has the better team on paper, easily).
I don't think anyone will beat Virginia again this year.
Duke will win both meetings with msu to win the championship game. And Oklahoma, having sat out their final four game with msu, would still be given the championship trophy even though they didn't deserve it.
Cincy, Michigan, Nova and Duke
Why? Because those are the teams that are going to be in it.
West - Michigan. Yeah I'm a homer, but there is something to be said for a team getting hot at the right time, which is exactly what Michigan has done. UConn mastered that art during their last two title runs and beat plenty of teams with far more talent. A hard fought, statement win over UNC propels them to San Antonio, and the West Coast alums flood the Staples Center for the Elite Eight against Gonzaga and make it feel like the team is playing in Crisler.
South - UVa - That defense. Wow. If they can get past Arizona I think they could easily whoop on Cincinatti. They've still got to prove as a program that they can get over the proverbial hump, but this is probably the year to do it.
Midwest - Duke. I'd prefer Kansas make it in over Duke, but KU is notorious for underacheiving this time of year. I just don't have much faith in Bill Self to make it to the Final Four. And anyone in this region is better than MSU making it. Izzo is 1-11 against Duke, so that says a little something about something. Duke has proven itself more, is a better team, and has played tougher competition week in and week out. I think MSU vs. Kansas would be a toss-up, but Krzyzewski has Izzo's number.
East - Villanova. Different year, same mindset about Purdue. Just have little to no faith that Painter can get them to a Final Four until he actually does it. If they're going to make it, this is the year to do it with the amount of talent that they have. But I have a hard time seeing them get past Villanova given how they fumbled down the stretch.
Semi's - Michigan vs. UVa - I have a hard time seeing Michigan win a game against UVa if its fortunate enough to get that far. Michigan would have to have a hurculean night from three-point land. I'd see a close game, but one where the whole offense just can't get into rhythm. I love this team and Michigan's defense would keep them within striking distance, but UVa's defense is as dominant as it gets. UVa 65, Michigan 56
Duke vs. Villanova - Toss-up, but Duke just knows how to win these kinds of games. I take Duke in a high-flying affair. Something like 89-83.
Title game - Duke vs. UVa - I want to take UVa, but again, as a program Duke just knows how to win these types of games. I think Duke would do just enough on offense to squeak out another title, and Twitter breaks over all the constant Grayson Allen hate after the game. 63-59 Duke.
Michigan, Virginia, Michigan State, Villanova.
Nova over Va- I thought they were the best two teams all year, not changing now.
I have the identical final 4 to you, with Michigan winning it over Purdue in the finals. The only slight homerism is UM over NC, and even that I honestly think we match up well with them in the current incarnation of this team. UVA will be a war, but I like our chances.
same as OP
Zona Mich Nova Duke
Quick glance:
- Michigan
- Villanova
- Duke
- Tennessee
and wouldn't be hard to defend without other options. He especially wears down when Beilein makes him defend the pick and roll every time down the court.
Didn't UM centers score 31 points against PU in the B1G finals without making them the nexus of the offense?
It's a two way game.
The Michigan that played UNC three months ago was a completely different team.
UNC is not a mercurial team this year and why should they be? They're loaded with juniors and seniors. A stable commodity.
But we have completely changed our lineups and our performance has exploded because of it.
Check these out.
Michigan
North Carolina
We have made massive improvements on offense and moderate ones on defense. UNC has made minor offensive improvements and actually gotten slightly worse on defense.
In the first game, Duncan and MAAR combined for 5 points. Simpson played 13 minutes. Maye and Berry were dynamite for UNC and that was the difference. I strongly, strongly like our chances to reverse those numbers if we get another crack.
Basically the same as everyone here.
Virginia and Villanova because they are the best two teams in the country. Duke because MSU is not good. Michigan because I'm an enormous homer, but UNC if I were being honest.
The intial bracket whre it's tough to not put a bunch of 1-3 seeds in:
(1)Virginina
(1) Villanova
(2) UNC
(1)/(2) Kansas/Sparty
My, "let's be a little more tricky and pick some matchups where guards could ignite or a team I've seen play I think could go far":
(5) Kentucky
(2) Purdue
(1) Kansas
(4) Gonzaga
My 1st round upset special I've most confidnce in:
(11) Loyola-Chicago over (6) Miami
My mid-tier seed (6-9) to make a Final Four:
(9) Alabama
My high seed to make an Elite 8/Final 4:
(12) Davidson
Finally, I think MIchigan could do some real damage in this tournament. That scares me. There are times when over confidence seems to bite me in the ass...some superstiitional bullshit probably. But when I put Michigan out "early-ish" I seem to have this mentality of, well, if I'm wrong it's okay my team is advancing! It's a bit of a weak-minded philosophy, I admit. But it's hard to overcome even though I'm reallllly not that superstitious.
Posted mine in the ESPN Bracket thread:
Michigan/UVA and Purdue/Duke final four with MEEEEEEchigan to beat Duke for the National Title!
Why? Idk that is what I ended up with on my gut feels. If I have to retroactively put reasons, I'd say...
Michigan: Great defense, good/great PG play, good/great 3pt shooters, good/great center. This is as deep and as prototypical a team that John Beilein has had, PLUS elite defense. That has a final four team written all over it, imo. Not getting there would be based on luck of the draw between two great teams in Michigan/UNC. Why not us?
Virginia is a great team in an easy bracket. This year they don't fall short in the tourney for reasons.
Purdue. Remember that game where we lost by 4 points after posting 1.35 PPP and 88 points?
Duke: They are due for a run and I want Michigan to beat them in the final because eff them man. Also they are due for a first round loss, but I don't want MSU to have a cake walk tournament matching their cake walk B1G schedule.
Michigan, Virginia, Villanova, and Duke as well- seems to be a popular pick around here. UVA/Nova/Duke for reasons everybody else has covered. Michigan because what's the point of even having a favorite team in the bracket if you don't pick them? UM over Duke in the finals. Also of note- SF Austin to the Sweet 16 over TTU and Florida
Virginia - best D in the country, enough offense to get it done vs anyone, which overall makes them the best team in the country.
Villanova - easiest path to the final four.
Michigan - hottest team in the country. The sweet sixteen game vs UNC is a revenge game for UM, and Beilein will have a week to prep for it. Gonzaga/Xavier dont have enough talent to stick with Michigan.
Michigan State - most talented team in the country. Bad B1G tourney will motivate them.
My champ game is Virgina 64, Villanova 60.
im having a tough time picking first round upsets
Me too i think i only picked 3 lowers seeds
Sad Diego St over Houston
South Dakota St over Ohio St
UCLA over Florida (and St Bonnie)
of course im gonna be way off .someone ike Kansas will lose round 1 and destroy my entire brackket
Michigan 80 Arizona 72
Michigan St 69 Purdue 68
Michigan 77 Michigan St 72
MICHIGAN National Champs
woman in pic?
Michigan, Virginia, Purdue, Duke
Michigan's great run finally comes to an end versus the eventual champion, Virginia.
Cincy - because the number 1 overall seeds (here UVA) don't always last to the final four and if these two meet in the E8 I consider it a coin toss who wins.
Nova - I don't see who beats them even if Purdue makes the E8.
Kans Ass - If they get over being eliminated (sometimes by Michigan) in the Sweet 16 I think they beat any takers in that region (including Puke).
Zags - The year UM went to finals I hade them losing to FLA in E8. Oh dear let me be wrong again.
I don't see anyone beating UVA in the South. Starting in the S16 round, they get Zona or UK (or a Cinderella) and both teams are seriously flawed. Then it's either Tennessee or Cinci.
Our bracket is the most wide open. I love our chances and will ultimately pick us in 80% of the brackets. If I remove the Maize and Blue glasses, I still like Michigan. Xavier goes down early (FSU), South Dakota State beats OSU and we get a UNC, then Gonzaga.
East seems to be Nova's to lose. I like the underdogs early there - Murray St and the Lumberjacks of SFA to the S16 before falling to Nova and Purdue
The regional we all love to hate is the Midwest - MSU, Kansas and Duke. Burn em all! Go Bucknell! Kansas has the home court (or close to it in the S16), so I will go with them.
Michigan, Virginia, Purdue, Kansas
Michigan Purdue
Michigan
Zona, Michigan, Nova, and Duke.
Michigan over Zona, Nova over Duke
Nova over Michigan.
I like the way we are playing and the matchups (I have us beating Xavier to get there).
Virginia is a fraud until they prove otherwise to me, and I don't have a good feel for that region overall. But Zona can get there if they don't choke for once as well.
I like Nova overall- guards get it done.
Duke. Talent that hasn't hit the ceiling yet.
I will add my biggest sleeper/bold pick. Florida making the elite 8 and beating Purdue. I have no idea why, purely based on gut feeling and looking for an odd pick.
Villanova and Virginia are the undisputed top 2 and haven't seen any metrics to justify picking someone else in those brackets.
538 and Sagarin's recent index both give Kansas the slight edge over Duke, but Sagarin's other 3 measures and every other index pick Duke. So, I'm picking Duke.
Most seem to have picked UNC over Xavier. The problem that I see is that, if you use recent ratings, Michigan has been performing better than UNC. Using Torvik over the last 10 games, Torvik over the last month, or Sagarin's recent index, Michigan is expected to beat UNC and the winner of that game is almost always expected to get to the Final 4. In fact, any model that I've put together that picks Michigan over UNC reaching the Final 4 also has the winner beating Virginia.
I keep separating Michigan being the favorite from them actually being picked to win because I'm using % chance to reach a round, i.e. the product of all of the win probabilities to reach that round. North Carolina has such an easy path compared to us that even when Michigan is predicted to win the game by a slight edge, the 50% chance of Michigan making it to the sweet 16 weighs them down. The moral of the story is that if Michigan makes it to the Sweet 16, there is a very good chance that Michigan beats North Carolina. To justify this take, though, you need to weigh recent games more heavily than early season games.
tl;dr: I'm probably picking Villanova, Virginia, Duke, and Michigan.
Michigan
Kansas
Villanova
I’m terrified of our inability to make FTs. I hope the time off has allowed our team to make It count when needed.
Steak, Chicken Wings, Burgers , Tacos
Wrong list
Michigan, Duke, Arizona,Villanova
If michigan can get past UNC in the sweet 16, i have a strong feeling were going to the final 4
Duke, just think their better than kansas and MSU
Arizona - Playing their best ball right now.
Nova - Justa good team and i don't think abody in their region can beat them
1) Michigan will always go all the way on one of my brackets. I had North Carolina in 1989 and will never ever forgive myself.
2) I am a homer
3) It will be a long time before I can pull for Villanova after that sqeaker in 1985 over Michigan leading to their successful NC run. Before that, 'Nova was one of my favorite teams for many reasons one of which was this girl, oh never mind.
4) I always pull for the Big 10 over the ACC and Kansas.
5) I am an imperfect father, my daughter went to MSU so there are a few teams I dislike more.
6) There will be few upsets in the first weekend but many slight upsets after that.
March 12th, 2018 at 10:13 PM ^
March 12th, 2018 at 11:29 PM ^
March 13th, 2018 at 12:13 AM ^
This thread has me waffling on my Purdue over Nova pick.
UVA, Michigan, Nova, Duke
UVA because I just don't see anyone standing in their way this year till the championship game
Michigan because I believe that we're hot right now and outside of NC, I don't see a team who can challenge us in this bracket while we're hot. We pull a NW or Neb type game, or maybe even an Iowa game and things could get dicey quick.
Nova because I don't think Due can pull it off.
and Duke because Coach K has Allen who will just hip check any opponent who starts to get close to winning.
My finals are Duke vs UVA with Duke winning it all. I hate Duke.