This Season vs. Harbaugh's Stanford Year One
Now that the regular season of Harbaugh Year One is over, I'm wondering if it may be useful to compare this season to his trajectory at Stanford. We only have one data point at Michigan so far, but this may be fun for pure idle speculation. So far we have:
| Year | Stanford | Michigan |
| Prior Season | 1-11 | 5-7 |
| Year 1 | 4-8 | 9-3 |
| Year 2 | 5-7 | ??? |
| Year 3 | 8-4 | ??? |
| Year 4 | 11-1 | ??? |
For the sake of disucssion, let's assume that this 9-3 season is not a fluke ala Hoke, and that Michigan won't be back-sliding, or at most if the record does suffer, we would go no lower than 8-4 in the regular season. Perhaps the choice isn't simply binary, but for discussion sake, does our 9-3 season represent:
A) Harbaugh is "ahead of schedule" compared to Stanford and thus will get Michigan to the point where we have 10-2, 11-1 or 12-0 regular seasons somewhat regularly within the next 2-4 years? i.e., "We will be reaching euphoric heights and in the playoff conversation late in the year more often than not."
OR
B) Does our 9-3 season mean that--thankfully--Harbaugh has quickly "raised the floor" of our program back to our "traditional floor" of 8-4 or 9-3, but (unfortunately) that's basically it, and that we'll be back where we were back in the Carr era being somewhat content with 10-2 or 9-3 seasons & semi-regular victories over our big rivals? i.e., "At least we are past our existential crisis but will only be in the playoff conversation late in the year just once every 6-7 years & thus view that as a special treat vs. expected outcome."
Or some alternative mixture of the two?
DISCUSS
**Edited to make the Scenario A vs. Scenario B differences more clear.
December 7th, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^
was the cupboard bare?
December 7th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^
Hoke's season wasn't a "fluke." He took a team that Rich Rod and a million dollar DC could have taken to the National Championship and got a decent year out of them.
December 7th, 2015 at 12:57 PM ^
I can't tell if sarcasm or not. But that 11-2 season was a fluke. The damning stat of it is the ungodly turnover numbers. They recovered 20 fumbles that year. By comparison this year's Michigan has recovered 2.
December 7th, 2015 at 1:04 PM ^
I think he's saying that Hoke needed a lot of luck to get to 11-2, but the team was so talented that with a good staff the record would have been even better. I think?
P.S. - I don't endorse that view.
December 7th, 2015 at 1:23 PM ^
December 7th, 2015 at 1:43 PM ^
We were also very fortunate to beat ND so 10-2 seems about right. Either way it doesn't matter, we needed to beat State to make the B1G title game.
December 7th, 2015 at 1:57 PM ^
....and we were a Braxton Miller overthrow or three from another loss to OSU. As much as I enjoyed the ride, I dislike 2011 more each time I think about it.
December 7th, 2015 at 2:18 PM ^
Agreed.
Our optimism and expectiations for MFootball, further compounded by our previous PATHETIC seasons, blinded us to white-washing the 11-2 season as a truly "great" season, as we all pulled for Hoke so hard to do well.
Of course this is not to diminish any of the players, coaches and staff. But we were absolutely over-achieving at 11-2. Likely more of a decent, sometimes strong, 9-4, 8-5 team.
December 7th, 2015 at 3:34 PM ^
Hoke and co. did a good job of working with what they had, and they deserve credit for that. I'm glad we had an 11-2 season, but it's obvious he stepped into a ready-built team and suffered almost no attrition when he came in. Hell, even Denard stayed, which made no sense for him to do. Compare that with Ryan Mallett immediately leaving after RR was hired. Time ultimately showed that Hoke didn't have the chops for this job, but I think Harbaugh has a much more impressive track record, and don't for one second expect a let down. So in a way, Harbaugh has the best of both worlds: the benefit of two good recruting classes and no attrition upon hire, plus he's a coach who has proven he can sustain a program and win.
December 7th, 2015 at 2:20 PM ^
2011 was what it was. Hoke was working with what he had and was using a traditional model for building a program. His QB's were basically a phenomenal RB who throws and a REALLY green Gardner. He had nobody to really run the offense he wanted properly, so Al went to drawing on napkins.
Harbaugh came into a program in much better shape defensively and an even bigger hole at QB. He has not taken a traditional method of building, but is exploiting every single little thing he can to better this team in every way he can. I prefer this method. :)
December 7th, 2015 at 3:00 PM ^
In reality, though, Miller's overthrow shouldn't have mattered, given the sequence of events on Michigan's last possession. It went from a Toussaint five yard touchdown run to give Michigan a 9 point lead (10 point lead with the extra point), then it was oddly overturned following review. Then, Robinson's one yard touchdown run was wiped out by a holding penalty. Michigan was pushed back even further due to a personal foul penalty. Ultimately, Gibbons kicked a 43 yard field goal. Unbelievable...
December 7th, 2015 at 3:20 PM ^
Right. It felt like doom. Standing in the nortwest endzone, voice gone, I nearly puked in my mouth when Miller missed the throw.
December 7th, 2015 at 1:24 PM ^
Definitely not sarcasm. Tater gets a little, ah, "out there" from time to time.
December 7th, 2015 at 5:04 PM ^
did we seriously recover 20 fumbles in 2011?
December 7th, 2015 at 1:18 PM ^
Wouldn't have mattered with RR as coach, because he would have made him run that moronic defense he likes so much.
December 7th, 2015 at 12:32 PM ^
I mean, hopefully it's A...no way to know for sure this early though
December 7th, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^
December 7th, 2015 at 5:05 PM ^
did the discussion happen at all?
December 7th, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^
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December 7th, 2015 at 12:47 PM ^
I think 9-3 is an accurate reflection of our season since the Michigan State near-win and Minnesota near-loss cancel out.
December 7th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^
Indiana didn't directly bork themselves the way we did against MSU and Minny did against us, but all 3 of those games easily could have gone either way.
December 7th, 2015 at 12:56 PM ^
That's football for you. Close OT wins are in no way the same as a loss on a completely fluky, like 1 in a million play.
December 7th, 2015 at 1:26 PM ^
I think the actual odds were right around 1/50,000, but still, that's crazy odds.
December 7th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
It was a near tie. We went to OT and won. Minnesota was a near loss.
December 7th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^
I think it's safe to call it a near loss.
December 7th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^
You are what your record says you are. -Bill Parcells
December 7th, 2015 at 4:32 PM ^
Example is the comparision of luck factors from 2011 to 2015, fumbles recovered.
Another real live (though dated) example is an NHL team (Colorado I think) whose best player was injured for almost the whole season, came back in time to get in shape for the playoffs and I think they got to the Stanley Cup or won it.
In one sense you are who your record says you are, but I bet most people would pick one team over another to play in a bowl game, same record, if they had a choice.
December 7th, 2015 at 1:31 PM ^
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December 7th, 2015 at 12:42 PM ^
Completely diff situations. He took over complete garbage at Stanford - here he had the massively underdeveloped #6 (2012) and #4 (2013) recruiting classes waiting for him.
He had to build Stanford from scratch - at UM he had to fix gross neglect.
Looking at past history (Tressel, Saban, Stoops) year 1 is often spent fixing the mess/culture/installing systems - then year 2 you see a massive improvement. I think record wise he was "ahead" (9 wins instead of 8 wins many assumed) but the talent was probably worth 8 wins - if Morris/Speight was QB instead of Jake he'd probably have had a more traditional 1st year in terms of wins for elite coaches while all the progress was still being made under the surface to get ready for a breakout 2nd year. Jake being here was probably worth 2 wins alone but the rest of the team would still be making the same progress even if it was 7-5 (non Jake at QB record).
If we find a QB and a solution at LBs I expect 2016 to be the best of this 3 yr cycle of 2015-2017 teams. There will be a dropoff in 2017 as the team will be exceedingly young, and then you hope 2018 forward is a consistent floor of double digit wins (10+). What the upside is in any of those years 2018+ will depend on who comes out of the annual battle royale btw UM, OSU, MSU games each year.
December 7th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^
I was going to make a smart-aleck remark about Jake being worth 9 wins (I'm not a fan of the options at backup QB) but after checking the record, we won a lot of games by a healthy margin, so I think you are right, Jake was worth about 2 wins.
As a reminder, these were the margins of victory:
OSU: 28
UNLV: 21
BYU: 31
Maryland: 28
NU: 38
Minn: 3 (maybe one of the games Jake wins for us, but Speight also played well enough for us to win.)
Rutgers: 33
IU: 7, definitely one Jake won for us
PSU: 12, the other game Jake won for us. Hoke had a lot of close games. Harbaugh destroyed fools this year. The future is bright.
December 7th, 2015 at 1:15 PM ^
Going to be honest - if it was Shane starting for us a lot of games that ended up being blowouts would have been "in play". Defense on the field for 10 minutes more eachh game getting tired instead of being fresh, defense frustrated by offensive ineptitude, more short fields for opponents, more turnovers etc. See Florida - they beat Vandy 9-7. Vandy has 1 of the worst offenses in the country. That's one turnover or one drive all game going an extra 20 yds for a FG attempt from being a loss to Vandy. I think we'd have been in many more of those games but thankfully we did not have to find out.
The way we played Minn, Indiana, PSU - all would be in play to me or losses with a mediocre QB. Even Maryland when we started 6-0, you put up a shit offense in 2nd half and you dont know if that game ends 10-9 Maryland etc. And if you dont move on Northwestern instead of punching them in the mouth after chesson KO return, you have 58 minuts of M00N playing out and its anyone's game.
Post Utah Jake was a good steward of the ball - who knows what turnovers would have lurked with non Jakes at QB.
December 7th, 2015 at 1:33 PM ^
I don't agree with your logic. Shane might not have been as good as Jake, but there is no way to know how he would have developed over the year or how having him at QB would have altered development in other areas of the team. It might have played out close to how you think it would have, but we simply don't have enough data to make predictions off of.
December 7th, 2015 at 1:52 PM ^
Shane playing at all. Speight passed him on the depth chart and looked pretty good on that game winning drive against MN.
December 7th, 2015 at 2:57 PM ^
Against OSU Speight looked alot like Morris did against Utah and Minnesota last year.
Without Rudock we would have struggled to get bowl eligble.
December 7th, 2015 at 12:35 PM ^
seems to me option a and b have a lot of crossover (10-2 seasons vs 10-2 seasons, playoff conversation every 4 years vs every 4 years)
I would side with A. The B1G just doesn't have it's crap together enough to challenge a truly elite program. Look at OSU's dominance over the past 10 years and MSU's over the last 5.
December 7th, 2015 at 1:07 PM ^
I disagree with this.
The bottom of the Big Ten may not be great, but I think the top half of the Big Ten was the best top half of any conference this year. It is MUCH improved from the decade of OSU's dominance.
- MSU and OSU are nationally elite programs as of now and Michigan is a season or two away from that.
- Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin are very solid/all top 25 teams that could be dangerous to top 10 teams, especially on the road (well, not NW bc of Ryan Field, but definitely Kinnick and Camp Randall).
Beaver Stadium is never a cake walk and Indiana is much more dangerous than most 6-6 teams simply because of their explosive offense (if they catch you on a sleepy day they are much more dangerous than, say, a 6-6 ACC team like Duke or VT.
As we move to 9 conference games next year, it will become even tougher.
Next year MSU has to play both Wisconsin and Northwestern.
Michigan plays Wisconsin and at Iowa.
Ohio State plays Northwestern and at Wisconsin (as well as Nebraska at home).
December 7th, 2015 at 12:35 PM ^
I am fairly certain that Harbaugh will in no way be satisfied being 10-2 or 9-3 every year. The man is as competitive as it gets. I fully expect Michigan to be in the playoff conversation every year (as they were this year). This is Harbaugh!!
December 7th, 2015 at 12:36 PM ^
Every year we'll increase our wins from the previous year, and decrease our losses. And since Harbaugh is consistent, I expect the same pattern he had at Stanford.
So year 3 we'll go 13 and -1. And by year 4 we'll go 16 and -4.
December 7th, 2015 at 12:40 PM ^
December 7th, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^
Also, there is a chance we drop in wins (or tie) next season.... @ MSU, @ OSU, @ Iowa? Unless This Road team thing is the real deal!
December 7th, 2015 at 2:59 PM ^
December 7th, 2015 at 2:40 PM ^
The nonsensical comment was intentional: note the prediction that we'd go 16 and -4.
December 7th, 2015 at 12:37 PM ^
We're comparing apples to Volkswagens really. He wasn't as established and able to draw (let alone pay for) top-tier assistants back then.
He has far more resources at Michigan.
December 7th, 2015 at 12:39 PM ^
+1 for apples to Volkswagens.
December 7th, 2015 at 12:40 PM ^
What happens when Apple comes out with a competitor to Tesla? You'll be revisiting this comment with chagrin in five years or so, I think.
December 7th, 2015 at 12:42 PM ^
I know one thing...an Apple car will undoubtedly need a non-universal plug to charge.
December 7th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^
Yeah.. the iCar. Motor Trend's Car of the Year for 2022.
You can only drive it in Santa Clara, CA. and it only comes in white. and its throttled to never exceed 45 mph. and the radio gets one station. and....and...and...
December 7th, 2015 at 12:59 PM ^
made in China by 12 year olds getting paid $14 per day.
December 7th, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^
December 7th, 2015 at 12:38 PM ^
Doh!
I only clicked once... wtf?