SBNation's Bill Connelly's 2017 Michigan Football Preview
Bill Connelly has released his 2017 Michigan Football preview.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/7/7/15910358/michigan-fo…
Enjoy!
A synopsis would help. Is it worth the click?
Yeah, but links to Colin Cowherd, Michael Rosenbert, (in the past) Drew Sharp, and others are NOT worth the click. I'm just looking for a bit of an explanation of what I should be expected to see. I don't want a cut and paste job, but at least a "this is worth a look".
There are a lot of links to Michigan Football. Not all of them are worth anyone's time.
That said, this was a solid write up with quite a bit of depth and thoughtful analysis. Can't wait for the season to start.
Everything from Bill Connelly is worth a read.
only 4 active CFB head coaches have national Championships...that is almost unbelievable...
How can you have been here for 7 years and not know Bill Connelly is awesome?
He lost me when he said that Magnuson, Kalis and Braden were excellent lineman.
Yeah, but to be fair, it's not like he can watch all 120+ teams. He's probably gauging that off the fact that they were named all-Big Ten.
Yeah, you're right it's way to much to ask that a sports writer actually do some research and analysis on the teams that he or she is covering. My bad, they were great!
/s
After HTTV, very likely my 2nd favorite Michigan football preview to read. Bill does a fantastic job every year.
If you're really into numbers, this is heaven for you. If you're not, you can still read the text and get an idea of how the team is expected to look in 2017.
Connelly is well-respected when it comes to this, arguably the most respected.
FWIW, Connelly applies a 2.5 point margin for Home Field Advantage. A 3.0 point margin shifts UM's total expected wins slightly upward from 8.9 to 9.0.
let's go with 3.0 and that will mean we're definitely going to win exactly 9 names.
Live life on the edge.
Click that link, DO IT! GIVE IN to peer pressure.
is that available as a podcast? Better yet, a video???
You could have gotten to the site faster than clicking "reply," typing your lame post, and clicking "save." Oh, and then wait for someone to answer your question.
It's...it's...
Isn't it beautiful...?
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The only "weakness" was because Michigan didn't allow anything short so Yds/Comp was high.
The one stat I read recently about PSU that stands out is that they won like 75% of their 50-50 jump ball passes. Those were a big, big part of their offense, and with Godwin gone you'd have to think you're going to see a big regression to the mean.
On the other hand...Barkley is a beast. So ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Barkley is the one guy on PSU's offense who's game I really have to respect, despite the fact that Michigan is the one team that has repeatedly shut him down. He's made a lot of lemonade out of the dogshit lemons his OL has given him.
For me its hard to be concerned about McSorely too much at this point when his whole game consists of chucking up Hail Marys and hoping for the best. At some point, you revert to the mean on those 50-50 balls.
Not saying that winning in Happy Valley will be easy. Will be an extremely tough game and will almost certainly be at night, but I agree in that I don't buy the PSU national title contenders hype right now.
Barkley is a non factor. No one will be able to run against Michigan's defense this year. Barrett will get some with bullshit that will get him into the cfl.
They won them because Godwin could high-point that ball like a MoFo.
But he's gone now.
50/50 isn't a term referencing the actual probability of any player to come down with the ball. It is a type of pass thrown to space where both the receiver and the defender are in position to play the ball.
That doesn't mean that there aren't players who are above or below average at fielding such passes.
Some receivers are better than others at 50/50 passes. Braylon Edwards, to use a local example, was excellent at them his senior year. Of his four game-changing catches in the 2004 MSU game (one to set up the FG that was immediately followed by the onside kick, two more regulation TDs, and the OT winner) three were 50/50 balls that he won using superior size, athleticism, and skill.
On the other side of things, Jourdan Lewis was a great defender of 50/50 balls despite often yielding several inches to the receivers he defended.
Regression to the mean is likely for PSU, but it is likely because their primary 50/50 target is no longer on the team. I suspect they will try to find new ways to make the passing game work.
how many of their offensive plays/yards were on 50/50 balls? Or how many of them went to Godwin? I think Brian mentioned this stat earlier this year, and I'm curious about the numebrs behind it. If there are 4 jump balls a game, which seems reasonable, and they are truly 50/50 balls, then 75 percent is only catching one more per game than expected per game, which isn't much.
I read a stat that nine of their top ten pass catchers return from last year. That's remarkable. Gesicki, Hamilton and Blacknall aren't chopped liver.
Connelly has that being our toughest game and I believe it. Good team in a difficult place to play.
Perfect last paragraph:
You can’t take a “wait ‘til next year” approach when you’re still projected as a top-10 team, but if Michigan does lose a couple of late games and keep the “Never better than third in the Big Ten East!” meme alive, you should get your laughs in while you can. Because this program is probably a year away from ignition.
Bill's numbers predictions are only numbers predictions (he overrates the issues with the passing game and underrates issues with the OL, imo) but projecting Michigan to drop to... 10th in S&P is pretty eye-opening. I'd be delighted with that at the end of the year.
Breaks down offense, defense and special teams - last year and looking into this year. Projected win probabilities for each game. Bottom line - D will be incredibly good, offense will depend on Speights connection with the new guys. Should win 8 games easily, and have 4 that are tossups (UF, PSU, Wiscy, and OSU). Given all the talent assembled, and superior coaching, expect a title run in 2018 he says.
the offense (as is the case for almost all offenses) will depend mostly on how well the young, inexperienced oline comes together. If they open holes, the run game will be great. If they give Speight time, he'll find guys and we'll find someone to get open and catch it.
write up and it's obvious he has done his homework. Still some questions for this upcoming season and like him I have felt for a while that 2018 could be very special. But, let's start with a very good 2017.
Great preview. Shows there are eight games that are very likely to win with four toss ups. And it's all based on numbers. If we start with a win at Florida (slight favorite in this article) then we're looking at nine wins at the baseline. Only games to worry about are Wisconsin, Penn State and OSU. Interesting.
The first sentence is mind boggling. Fuck Tim Tebow.
What will you try after failing baseball, Timmy? MMA?
Bill has great writeups and actually knows his stuff - you can read about the 89th team in the nation and he will know things such as the 4th WR. And for those of us who like advanced stats it's very good too.
Bottom line he is projecting 9-3 which I think is where a lot of the non homers are. That of course assumes 1-3 in the "tough games" but it also allows for the nearly annual Carr type f* up vs a bad team so maybe 7-1 vs "guaranteed wins" and 2-2 in the tossups.
So a few things will be interesting to me:
- does this team have a big learning curve i.e. is the team demonstrably better in Nov than Sep which it should be do to youth.
- Harbaugh has basically won the games he should (ex Iowa) in his time here and mostly lost games "we should". Can he do some Stanford magic and have us go in and beat someone "we shouldn't" a year ahead of schedule.
Like someone else said the elite programs don't all wait until everyone is an upperclassmen or the schedule aligns perfectly to have great years. And I don't mean 12-0 years but exceeding expectations. The Wisc and OSU games are probably going to be 2 of our 3 toughest games this year but they are at the very end of the year when UM should be at its best with a full season to get all its youth a ton of experience. Which is why the PSU game is tougher as it's much earlier in the year against what will be a veteran team at home. But a lot of people are viewing Wiscy and OSU vs the lens of UM with Aug 30 experience - vs a team with Nov 10 experience. Hence I'm more positive than most on that road game at Wisconsin and the home game vs OSU (despite UM's long history of not beating anyone of value on the road) - we just much higher ceiling player vs player than Wisconsin and by the time we get "there" (nov 18) our players should be showing it. As for OSU everyone hates on Franklin and said Harbaugh is 10x the coach - so show it at home in year 3 - Franklin found a way at home in year 3 with a team inferior to UM 2018. Luck or not - where is our luck next November? (not the Andrew type) Find a way like other programs do - a disaster MSU program played OSU nearly even at home last year.
This very expensive staff should have UM at a much better place on Nov 10 than Aug 30.
You could do a lot worse, but here are two parts that make me glad that sites like MGoBlog exist:
"The Wolverines must replace ... three all-conference offensive linemen ..."
"... loss of three excellent linemen (Erik Magnuson, Kyle Kalis, Ben Braden) ..."
95+% of the people who read the review will take those statements at face value. Through MGoBlog we know that all three guys (Michigan Men and generally great people to be sure) were multi-year starters but not next-level material (or excellent).
But, if those statements help reduce any ridiculous expectations of Harbaugh (you know, "HARBAUGH NEEDS TO BEAT OSU THIS YEAR!!!"), fine.