OT Vaccine Optimism
It sounds like we have two vaccines with 90%+ effectiveness on the way https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1247888
Another thing that really stood out about Moderna's is that they believe it also lessens the severity of COVID if the vaccine doesn't completely prevent infection.
We could have a normal 2021 summer.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:33 PM ^
Actually I am working on the next one (Part IV: Treatments and Vaccines) but I've been waiting for the actual publications detailing the Phase III trials to come out. It helps to have Moderna and Pfizer (still just press releases unfortunately) but would love to get the AZ/Oxford and J&J results before dropping Part IV.
Vis-a-vis the next stage, tough to say. mRNA is a big technological advance but we'll see how broadly applicable it is to other infections (SARS-CoV-s was a particularly good one because the spike protein makes it an inviting and well-defined target).
Looking deep in the future, the Holy Grail would might be to take autologous immune cells (from your own body) and genetically modify them before returning back to you to confer something close to lifelong immunity to a given microbe. Otherwise it's just going to be refining the delivery process of either proteins or genetic material related to the target. There really aren't other options.
November 16th, 2020 at 5:02 PM ^
Thanks for the reply! Will wait in anticipation.
I have read about the science side of things and watched a couple videos in the last few days. But things seem to make much better sense when connected to Michigan sports analogies :).
And just think of all the new disease related illustrations the football team has given you to work with!
November 16th, 2020 at 4:23 PM ^
"...expect proof-of-vaccination to become a necessary element..."
Ah get out your papers and/or Scarlet Letters if you didn't get the vaccine! Where have I heard this before....oh, I know.
Sickening.
November 16th, 2020 at 5:28 PM ^
I don't know. Where have you heard this before? Please do tell...
November 16th, 2020 at 1:57 PM ^
I know someone who underwent the Moderna trial. First shot: nothing much. Second shot: got a bit sick, but then all good. Then, many weeks later: tons of antibodies. Seemed to work for him, at least.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:00 PM ^
I know someone (not well, friend of a friend) who was in the Pfizer study. Other than some soreness and minor swelling around the injection, no real issues. He doesn't know if he received the placebo or the actual vaccine, though.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:13 PM ^
If another vaccine becomes publicly available before this trial has been completed, participants have the option of stopping participation in this study and getting that vaccine. This is the case regardless which group participants are in – vaccine or placebo. However, if this study is not yet finished (it may be concluded early if the results show overwhelmingly that the vaccine is effective), the study team will not be able to tell participants which group participants were in – the vaccine or placebo.
https://www.henryford.com/moderna-vaccine/faqs#CanIGetVaccine
Sorry about that. Replied to the wrong comment.. Is it possible to delete the comment.
November 16th, 2020 at 1:58 PM ^
This is unmitigated good news. It will not get us back to normal this calendar year, but projections for manufacturing and distribution are that by April, we should have at least been able to vaccinate all of the elderly, front-line workers, essential workers and those who are most at risk. Once that has occurred, vaccination of the general population of younger, healthier adults and possibly kids would happen over the next 3 months. But, once all of the first group of people are vaccinated, we should be able to approach normalcy.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:01 PM ^
Thank you! ?
November 16th, 2020 at 2:34 PM ^
Yes. Unmitigated good news. But I wouldn't be scheduling any big celebrations just yet. There's a HUGE logistics challenge to getting any successful vaccine rolled out. I'm in manufacturing (car parts), but just look at the issues with COVID tests earlier to know the kind of hurdles we'll face. From having enough glass, to needles, to facilities to keep the drugs cold (-4C is a lot better than -70C though!) to manufacturing hundreds-of-millions of doses there's a ton of challenges between now and "normal".
I think this is huge news and that we'll get there! But it'll either take a long time or it'll be an amazing achievement of logistics, manufacturing, etc.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:43 PM ^
The -70C issue can be mitigated by transporting people en masse to Antarctica and inoculating in outdoor tents.
I still need to work out a few transportation kinks and the small issue of people not spreading and catching covid-19 while packed on air or ship transports en route to Antarctica. Mere minor details, though.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:12 PM ^
Rube Goldberg Vaccine Rollout you say?
November 17th, 2020 at 3:22 AM ^
The U.P. should have enough dune buggies and snowmobiles to transport 350 million Americans to the North Pole for the mass inoculation events. See ya in Escanaba!
November 16th, 2020 at 8:22 PM ^
There are already five hospitals in Indiana that have been designated distribution points. They have been working on this since April. The 100 million doses at Pfizer have been in cold storage for the last 2 months. I think they have the plan. And if the state of New York opts out, there will be that much more to go around.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:07 PM ^
I heard one of them (maybe the Pfizer one) you need two shots within 2 weeks. I hope we get this out there soon, but one side of me is a bit worried due to the length of testing and the effects it could have in a long run. Maybe someone who knows more about this can chime in.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:13 PM ^
There could still be more vaccines too. The more the merrier as that will mean production and distribution will ramp up more quickly.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:21 PM ^
Good news so far but in both cases these have been company press releases. Hoping for the best!
November 16th, 2020 at 2:22 PM ^
I guess I’ll have to lose these 50 pounds I found since lockdown.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:34 PM ^
Aw, fuck, I'll have to go back to wearing pants.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:56 PM ^
Going forward - garterized only!
November 16th, 2020 at 2:23 PM ^
"Normal 2021 summer" when it seems like 40% of the population are conspiracy theorists? ......Yeah, that's a little too optimistic
November 16th, 2020 at 2:30 PM ^
True but hopefully the segment of the population that is high risk will go ahead and get the vaccine which should help tremendously
November 16th, 2020 at 2:36 PM ^
There will be widespread adoption if places start requiring it. I mean places won't start that to begin with, but if people aren't vaccinating and it's still running rampant into 2021 and 2022 maybe they will? Like what if Disney said you can't go to Disney World unless you've been vaccinated. I know lot of conspiracy theorists that would then get it.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:41 PM ^
Just pray the SEC and NASCAR require it to get into their venues. That should solve half the problem.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:49 PM ^
this would be AWFUL if places start mandating it.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:31 PM ^
"There will be widespread adoption if places start requiring it."
Sounds familiar
November 16th, 2020 at 5:02 PM ^
One of my friends is working with Ticketmaster on this...https://www.billboard.com/articles/business/touring/9481166/ticketmaste…
November 16th, 2020 at 3:06 PM ^
Well, if it's 95% effective then the assholes have a much lower likelihood of ruining things for everyone else. It would be a much bigger problem with a 60% effective vaccine.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:41 PM ^
Exciting news on the long-term front. But I worry this will make people relax even more over the next few months, which are already promising to be hell in most part of the countries, especially if you-know-who keeps mocking masks and encouraging "uprisings." A large segment of the country still believes covid is a hoax and that masks equal "oppression."
November 16th, 2020 at 2:42 PM ^
Do you honestly think that a vaccine could be made in such a short time? We have flu vaccines that are only 40% effective at best. I can't wait for these side effects. I'll pass.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:59 PM ^
Yes?
I know at least one of them is essentially a re-purposed MERS vaccine or are otherwise continuations of MERS vaccine research (closely related to COVID) that stopped R&D after funding dried up.
What is your point regarding flu vaccines? There are literally multiple strains of flu that circulate every single year that mutate very quickly, and it's hard to know project exactly which strains will be most prominent (hence the 40% effectiveness rate on SOME years, definitely not every year) None of those things is true with COVID.
I can understand being hesitant over unknown side effects, but it may be literal years before we learn of all (if any) possible side affects with any of these vaccines. I'm not an expert, but I've read that these typically show up within the first few months and they largely have not. If it has undergone all of the necessary testing, review, and safety protocols, and the world's top-leading physicians and disease experts approve of it and take it themselves, that's good enough for me
November 16th, 2020 at 4:54 PM ^
Actually, he has a nugget in there, as the Covid, like all common cold type viruses also mutates quite quickly as well.
I would imagine either these vaccines are designed to address that possibility of mutation (my understanding), or we are going to be doing this all over in a couple years, yay!
Assuming this vaccine is "broad spectrum", to borrow a term many of you doctor types will be annoyed at me using, I would hope that same process could be applied to new Flu vaccines to make them more effective.
November 16th, 2020 at 7:56 PM ^
So without getting too far into the weeds, some aspects of these vaccines may be readily translatable to other diseases (utilizing mRNA) but that will be entirely contingent on the biology of the other diseases targeted and unlikely for influenza. Not every antigen is created equal in terms of stimulating immunity and not all antigens are stable. The flu, because of its biology and ability to simultaneously infects birds and pigs, is always shifting and drifting . So people need to get seasonal vaccines not because last years vaccine sucked, but because the circulating strains changed. With this corona virus, there’s at least a chance that this spike protein remains conserved and stable (but the virus hasn’t been around long enough to know). Provided the immunogenicity is strong, might need only one round.
To answer the original question, yes, it certainly is possible to create a vaccine this fast. It hasn’t been done before because the vaccine is different than any that have come before. The initial production can be super accelerated and with appropriate safety measures, it can still be released very quickly because of how compressed the initial production time could be.
Sincerely, some random internet guy with a degree in molecular epidemiology from Michigan.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:59 PM ^
Bad logic. You know nothing about vaccines, the process of vaccine creation in general and yet have confidence in your gut feel. Classic example dunning kruger effect.
Just say "I have no idea what's going on and that scares me, so I'm not going to take it."
November 16th, 2020 at 3:00 PM ^
Remember the part about covid-19 being different than influenza strains? Susceptibility to vaccines may also be one of those differences, but in a very good way.
To answer your question: yes, I do think a vaccine could be developed in such a short time if sufficient resources and attention are expended and the virus is discovered to be much more vaccinatable than "common" influenza strains.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:05 PM ^
The alternative is taking a chance on the side effects or worse of covid.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:08 PM ^
You can have mine if you feel like being a guinea pig.
November 16th, 2020 at 5:13 PM ^
I suppose that a step above being a gerbil or hamster, so yeah, where do I sign up?
November 16th, 2020 at 5:33 PM ^
But how will he know which one is yours? Never mind...
November 16th, 2020 at 3:14 PM ^
COVID-19 has really bad side effects that we know about. Probably more that we don't know about yet.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:57 PM ^
Excellent....I'll take yours please.
I hear the same damn thing in Ohio everyday calling for herd immunity without a vaccine, now they say they won't take it even if there is one. You'all can kill each other with Covid if you want for all I care, at least you won't be giving it to me.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:57 PM ^
The issue with the flu is that it mutates so quickly, which has not been true for the virus that causes COVID-19.
Flu vaccine side effects are generally pretty minimal, and they're a lot more minor than actually getting the flu--and the flu kills thousands of people every year.
The COVID-19 vaccines are going through safety testing right now, and they're likely to be a hell of a lot safer than actually getting COVID-19.
November 16th, 2020 at 5:14 PM ^
THE REASON WE'RE GETTING A VAC SO FAST IS B/C THEY ARE PREMATURELY MANUFACTURING IT PRIOR TO PROOF THAT IT IS 100% SAFE AND EFFECTIVE.
If the vacs don't past muster, the pre-manufactured doses will be a lost cost that gets destroyed.
It's all in manufacturing and some recent advances in the science of vac development, but mostly the risk of maufacturing the vac, then finding that it's ineffective or unsafe, is being absorbed by the companies (well, really the FedGov that thru money at these companies to mitigate financial risk.
I was orignially concerned that a vac would get rushed out prior to the election for political purposes. That hasn't happened, so I'm confident that a late Dec-Jan timeline, as described back in March would be safe.
I am doubtful that the logisitics of distributing 2 doses of -70C stroring temp vacs is doable by 7/1 say for the population at large, but we'll see. I'd expect all military & frontline healthcare workers get the vac sequence by 4/1, old folks and other high risk by 6/1 or 7/1 and the rest of us by 9/1/21
November 16th, 2020 at 2:47 PM ^
I'm sure ijohnb is having a field day blasting crazy conspiracy theories on some other platform.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:16 PM ^
well i hope wherever that platform is enjoys his rhetorical parler tricks
November 16th, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^
Niiiiiicely done!
November 16th, 2020 at 3:27 PM ^
What you did there, I see it.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:48 PM ^
back to normal by April 2021 regardless.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:01 PM ^
I've got the over under at May 1.
For sure deaths should plummet if we distribute it wisely. Still, I won't be going back to normal until I get my vaccine.
Speaking of which, y'all these vaccines are very suspicious. Def don't bother signing up until us poor saps can try it out for you.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:24 PM ^
My 70 yo folks are in Michigan and I'm thinking about suggesting they flee here to the safer confines of New York City until the vaccine is available.