Hypo: What if Gary Moeller stayed?

Submitted by 1408 on

Moeller was before my era by a little bit but I am curious what might have happened to Michigan had he never gone to Excalibur that night in Southfield.  The guy had a .758 winning percentage and was back to back Big Ten coach of the year.  

He might have coached for 15 seasons at that rate (especially given that he had immediate success following Bo).  

Do we still win it all in '97 if he is the HC?  Do we win more?  Interesting to think about.

Rhino77

May 22nd, 2018 at 7:26 PM ^

We still win the NC as Woodson was a Michigan fan. 

Mo was a good coach. Carr was too in retrospect, though the game passed him by a bit. Mo was an X's and O's guy, Carr hired great people. 

Michigan used to be stacked with regional talent. Man. 

Bando Calrissian

May 22nd, 2018 at 7:29 PM ^

This is all hypothetical, of course, but a sustained Moeller program with the kind of mismanagement and lack of responsible oversight in the Athletic Department at the time... I just feel like Michigan Football would have gotten dinged for something.

Let's face it, Moeller was a great coach, but there was some stuff going on back then that Lloyd seemed to clamp down pretty quickly. 

Rufus X

May 22nd, 2018 at 8:56 PM ^

I was there on the inside of the program the entire Mo tenure. It was 100% clean. No question.

In fact one of the most dismaying thing about the ordeal was that Mo used to say every single year to the incoming freshman class: You have to be not just as clean as other students at the university... but cleaner. You have to know that people in the communitiy are going to try to take advantage of your fame or your position, and they will cut you loose when the going gets tough. You are not special - so don't expect any special treatement from anyone if you get in trouble, expect them to be harder on you BECAUSE you are a football player..

What sunk him that night at the Excalibur was when the audio tape of him hit WJR a couple days later with him in a drunken stupor saying "You can't do this to me! You know who I am!"

Once that tape hit the airwaves and the evening news, it was over. 

 

NittanyFan

May 22nd, 2018 at 9:27 PM ^

The Excalibur was a survivable incident for Moeller - until that tape came out.  

A different time then.  Even in the era of Bill Bonds, WJR was THE most powerful voice in Michigan news back then.  Also the Michigan radio flagship.  JP was still on the air, he didn't die until late that summer.  He became very critical of Moeller once the tape came out, as I recall.  If JP had turned on you, the die was pretty much cast.

I liked and admired Moeller.  Thought he did a good job w/ the Lions in 2000 also.  Millen should have considered Moeller more than he did.

But it was what it was - Moeller did have to go in May 1995.   

Eng1980

May 23rd, 2018 at 1:20 PM ^

Yeah, there were some questionable incidents.  I am pretty sure Shonte People's was arrested for firing an automatic weapon from his balcony at someone he thought was trying to steel his car.

I think that was the same time that U of M formed their own police department so Ann Arbor police were in a weakened position to bring things to the coach before they went public.

othernel

May 22nd, 2018 at 7:42 PM ^

I wonder this all the time. Not specifically what would have happened if Moeller has stayed, but rather what if Lloyd hadn't been coach. 

Was Lloyd the great manager whose steady hand helped with the national championship, or was he the conservative old man who let all that talent go to waste?

I think both can be true in this instance. 

Benoit Balls

May 22nd, 2018 at 8:28 PM ^

I've spent waaay too much time thinking about this over the years. it is still somewhat unfathomable to me how unprepared Michigan seemed to be for Lloyd's departure. Is that Lloyd's fault for not giving the school ample notice so they could've had a better plan in place? Or did the Athletic Department just assume that because "This is Michigan" they'd be able to get whoever they wanted/it didn't matter who they got because "This is Michigan" and success was "guaranteed"? I believe it is more the Athletic Departments fault for being ill prepared (at best) and lazy (at worst). I also think they severely underestimated how much more competitive CFB as a whole had become and did not adequately understand how fragile the program had become. Lloyd probably could've made things easier for the Rodriguez tenure, but in the end I think the bigger failure was by the AD. The real question is if Bo had still been around and in good health would the AD have let the football program fall to such a precarious place? I don't think so. Also, had Bo not died in 2006 I think Lloyd may have stuck around at least 1 more year to give the AD time to get their ducks in a row

BeatOSU52

May 22nd, 2018 at 8:13 PM ^

Is there any proof that was actually him that night ? Someone on Reddit was saying how his cousin was working at that restaurant that night and he was saying how it was actually an Ohio St fan wearing an elaborate Gary Moeller mask in order to sabotage his coaching career .

maize-blue

May 22nd, 2018 at 8:44 PM ^

He was pretty good in bowl games, 4-1. Michigan has a rather sad bowl record so maybe he could have helped in that regard. Bo, Carr, RR, Hoke, and Harbaugh (so far) all had/have losing bowl records.

Rufus X

May 22nd, 2018 at 9:09 PM ^

What people forget is that Moeller's offense was revolutionary.  It was no huddle back when that was something, and at a traditional place like Michigan it was REALLY something. Cam Cameron was Sam Wyche's assistant at Indiana before he (Wyche) took the no huddle to the NFL and used it to lead the Bengals to the superbowl. Mo let Cam take that offense and make it Michigan's. Amazing stuff.  

Mo was also the first college HC to have a full time recruiting coordinator on staff (Bob Chmeil).  Michigan's recruiting footprint got so much larger during Mo's time - into Florida (Rod Payne), California (Toomer), and Texas (Mercury Hayes and Jarrett Irons).

The NFL talent that came out of that program during the Mo years was incredible; Howard, Alexander, Wheatley, Toomer, Runyan, Law, Skene, Steele, Grbac, Collins, Riemersma, Tuman, etc.  I could go on and on... not to mention the all americans who didn't get drafted highly or have great NFL careers... Hutchinson, Payne, Irons, Horn, Morrison, Jenkins, Stanley, Biakabutuka, etc. 

We'll never know for sure how the history would have changed, for better or worse. I know this; it's too bad we never had the chance to see Mo try to take UM to the next level.  With that staff I have no doubt he would have gotten close.

stephenrjking

May 22nd, 2018 at 11:14 PM ^

This is good stuff, perspective I haven't heard or have forgotten.

In fairness, MIchigan was stil really conservative on offense. Desmond Howard was a dominant player in 1991, but Michigan wasn't exactly lighting up the sky passing to him. It was still very much the run-based offense we were used to in the 80s, with the occasional dash of daring thrown in. 

What I come back to is the culture of the athletic department that discouraged maintenance of quality staff. Staff atrophy was a real problem under Lloyd, particularly on offense, and it's not clear to me that Mo would have had it any different. Yes, he was a better offensive mind than Lloyd, and maybe that makes a difference, but maybe missing out on more involvement from Mattison (who taught the 97 defense their fundamentals in 95 and 96 before leaving) and Hermann's schemes that effectively used Woodson hurts going the other way. 

Who knows? In retrospect you argue persuasively about his recruiting, but of course Lloyd recruited really well too. But perhaps if Mo stays around Michigan doesn't get mugged so badly by Tressel in Ohio. 

Who knows? It's a question we don't ask much, because Lloyd won a national title in 1997, and that cured most of the ills of the 90s.

Double-D

May 23rd, 2018 at 10:39 AM ^

Michigan had way more talent and should have buried him in mediocrity right along with his prediction. Lloyd came out predictable until we got down and then he opened up and ran up and down the field. We could not however catch up. A few months later Tressel pulls in a top class based on beating Michigan and the rest is history. We win that game, which should have been a layup, and we change history.

Wingsfan1

May 22nd, 2018 at 9:17 PM ^

My Dad was friends with one of the arresting officers at the time. He said if Moe had not pushed him he would have gone home and not to jail.  I really liked Moe, not a fan of Lloyd.

Eng1980

May 23rd, 2018 at 1:35 PM ^

I thought it was reported in one news source, and repeated in others, iirc, that the server was an MSU student, the drinks white or black russians, they were all doubles, and there were seven of them (14 regular drinks.)

It is no excuse however.  One should know when one has had enough even if the drinks are excessively strong.  (Except unless you are in high school and some college guy thought it would be funny to get the high school kid drunk.  Just sayin' for a friend.)

I thought Gary looked good with the Lions.

JFW

May 23rd, 2018 at 3:38 PM ^

to my brother that people complained bitterly about Lloyd; but if we ever got rid of him we'd soon learn his value. 

I would argue history has proven my point. 

I was at UM Under Mo, and part of Lloyd. Both were good coaches who gave us some great wins. 

Mr. Owl

May 22nd, 2018 at 10:46 PM ^

How many Super Bowls would the Lions have won if they had kept the best coach they ever lucked into as an interm fill-in?

Let's see...  1... 2...

Three.  The answer is three.

(3 is a magic number)

You Only Live Twice

May 22nd, 2018 at 11:14 PM ^

passed the reins to Mo, I will always wonder what might have been.

Years later, it doesn't matter, we have to pick up and go forward.

uminks

May 23rd, 2018 at 1:40 AM ^

and it was Mo. Carr did a good job but did not groom a successor. It was just like I want to retire and I don't have anyone to take over the program. I know Carr did not want Les as the next coach. I don't think he was thrilled with RR.

umchicago

May 23rd, 2018 at 3:17 AM ^

Mo keeps his job if he doesn't lose 4 games each of the preceding two years.  iirc, Mo was fired before Bo got to weigh in.  and Bo was pissed at the decision to fire Mo.