WTKA Roundtable 10/13/2022: You Don't Scare Me
Things discussed:
- Errors in the first half cropped up after Hart went down.
- IU's offense is about making you screw up, Michigan's plan was to try to handle it with their base.
- Officials were TERRIBLE. Worse on review than on first watch.
- IU totally selling out against Michigan's pistol run game. Incredible that Corum turned one of those into a TD.
- JJ had a great game—even the INT (put it on Bell's facemask vs a LB) and the "overthrow to Henning" was actually getting hit on the arm trying to go to Bell. Johnson drop was a great throw, twice JJ motioned
- Klatt's motion thing: red herring. Not a red herring: pistol = run. Penn State's not stupid; they're practicing play-action off Pistol.
- Is the pass rush real? I believe in Mike Morris. I believe in Eyabi Okie! Not so much the other guys.
- Penn State: worried about our LBs vs Singleton. PSU's OL not worrying us. Their secondary does. Chop Robinson is their biggest edge test so far. Cornerbacks are great—shout out to King out of Cass Tech and Joey Porter Jr. (sorry DJ) is the Big Ten's best cornerback.
[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]
You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream.
Segment two is here. You can watch the video here:
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- What's with the theme music?
That's probably my favorite of the deadliest sins, sloth.
October 13th, 2022 at 11:31 AM ^
How do we reconcile a fear of Penn State's secondary with their statistically bad pass defense?
October 13th, 2022 at 11:37 AM ^
Their YPP hasn't been bad. But, I don't think secondary play is going to be as much of a factor as line play.
I think that OL play is maybe the biggest key to this game. Ours is going to break down their defense. Theirs is going to buckle against ours.
October 13th, 2022 at 1:26 PM ^
That's my question too. They rank 103rd in passing yards allowed.
October 13th, 2022 at 2:56 PM ^
To quote Mel “horse shit coach” Tucker, total pass defense is the most overrated stat.
Dig a little deeper into the stats and you’ll learn much more than by looking simply at total yardage.
Note: even when you dig deeper into the stats, MSU’s pass defense is awful. But in regards to Penn State, they’re performing like a top 15-20 pass defense but because they lead the country in pass attempts against per game, their total yardage is inflated.
October 13th, 2022 at 1:27 PM ^
That's my question too. They rank 103rd in passing yards allowed.
October 13th, 2022 at 2:50 PM ^
Playing Purdue (threw the ball 60 times) and CMU (threw the ball 53 times) will add up over a short sample size of 5-6 games
October 13th, 2022 at 2:05 PM ^
Well there's more to pass defense than having elite corners. Modern offenses stress you by making you roll out five, six, seven guys in coverage, then targeting the weak link. Opponents haven't been throwing at our corners but that doesn't necessarily mean they're terrified of Turner and Green. As good as they've been, it more likely means they think they can pick on our linebackers.
Probably same deal with Penn State. For coverage it's better to have an entire back seven of B, B+ players, than a couple first-round draft picks and a couple cyans.
The defensive FFFF isn't out yet, right? I'll bet you'll see a cyan or two out there, that makes those elite corners not matter.
October 13th, 2022 at 2:39 PM ^
The accuracy of this post combined with your avatar makes for some wonderful irony
October 13th, 2022 at 2:49 PM ^
Context is the answer. Start by looking at stats deeper than simple yards per game.
They’re third nationally in completion percentage allowed (49.6%) and they’re 11th nationally in yards per attempt allowed. They’ve given up a lot of pass yards overall because teams are throwing 45+ times per game on average. But based on efficiency metrics, they're a really good pass defense.
October 13th, 2022 at 3:38 PM ^
Guh. Okay never mind then; that’s elite.
October 13th, 2022 at 8:00 PM ^
Who cares? Run it down their throats.
October 13th, 2022 at 11:34 AM ^
Here's hoping that the Colson missile keeps getting pointed in the right direction on run plays.
I think our DTs blow up the middle, and if linebacker play is sound, that it's possible that
(a) PSU can't run at all, get behind, and get put in obvious passing situations, and then
(b) Pass rush starts teeing off, and Clifford has flashbacks to last year
October 13th, 2022 at 12:19 PM ^
So penn state plays for play action off that formation. Do they do it on the correct play? If they’re playing for play action a bunch doesn’t that open up the run more from that formation? It’s not like Michigan is only going to run play action out of pistol now.
October 13th, 2022 at 12:39 PM ^
Concur, just the fact its been made into such a thing now sets them up either way. I'll trust our staff over theirs from a game planning / in game management standpoint every day of the week and twice on Saturday.
October 13th, 2022 at 1:52 PM ^
Yeah they can rep "Michigan is totally gonna PA this" but it's tough to set up your keys if that PA isn't on film. All you got is the O-line going into pass protect, and that's just football 101. But the point stands; they burned downs against Indiana for no upside. And we're still not even sure they're going to run PA! They didn't run any counters for split zone last season; they eventually just stopped running it. So we've seen them burn downs for no reason.
The most charitable explanation I have for not running PA is that the plays weren't quite ready. IF they have PA off their pistol looks, coaches don't run something if they're not confident in the players' execution. To be clear, it's not necessarily McCarthy. It could be a blitz pick-up, or some obvious tendency that needs to be worked out lest the defense immediately key on it. You know, any legit reason to not debut the play in a real game. But you run the base play, ostensibly because it's better to have it in the bag and show it, if it's ready.
Again, not saying this is the case. Just saying this is the best excuse I can think of.
October 13th, 2022 at 12:32 PM ^
I'm buying Mike Morris but Okie still feels a bit like an unknown; he has looked really good against bad offensive lines like Iowa and Indiana but still feels like a guy who might hit a wall against better teams. Mostly I just don't see him becoming Ojabo this year, though probably trending up.
Officials were awful and I guess it's good UM got them last week against a bad opponent and not one where it might have shifted the game.
Porter's a great corner but I'm not sold on PSU's safeties. Brown is really good but feels you can pick on the other one. Should be interesting if Wilson is back and healthy.
I remain somewhat on the fence wrt McCarthy having fantastic games - he's doing what the offense is asking him to do but it does feel like the playcalling is trying to put hm into positions to succeed perhaps at the expense of some dynamism. It's totally understandable but my guess is the UFR is going to show a lot of smart, shorter passes out of some basic packages. And I know it was bad luck that the Bell ball popped up to be picked off but there was at least 1 other guy open on that play and I guess my definition of "on his facemask" is different than others when there are two guys within 3 yards of him. Yes that's a throw you can try to make; it's also not one you necessarily need to make in that situation when you're already in FG range and would make the game a 2-score affair late in the 3rd quarter.
October 13th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^
Well good news is that the vast majority of big ten OL suck…with the exception of Osu.
October 13th, 2022 at 1:17 PM ^
Illinois has a good line and we'll see if PSU's has improved a bit. Yeah, most of the conference isn't great but there will be a step up in the back half.
October 13th, 2022 at 1:40 PM ^
The interception is such a nit to pick. He's a true sophomore making what his fifth start? Taking the shot is fine to Bell is fine. It's really easy to look back and say "oh there were x amount of guys open underneath." It's your best WR on a linebacker in area of the field where you can take a shot into the endzone. Against a better quality team, sure you can question the decision making, against Indiana and with the chance to put them away is fine.
Regarding Okie, he doesn't need to be Ojabo because he's not Ojabo. He has ability and can make a difference. Morris and Okie (and the rest of the gang), don't need to be 1:1 facsimiles of Hutch and Ojabo. What he brings to the table is different than the rest of the guys in the room. They can use him in different capacities within the scheme. He has enough physical ability and technique to be a plus player in the scheme in relation to the other guys they have in the edge room. It's not rocket science, he adds value and makes plays.
October 13th, 2022 at 2:23 PM ^
The pick wasn't a good throw because even when he threw it the LB was in good position; that's a tough catch even if you believe that Bell (who was covered by that guy plus the safety coming down) could have surged forward. And more than that, there was a much easier throw in the back of the endzone. And it's something McCarthy has done this year; he sometimes misses open guys by trying to go long, and thus far it's not been hugely successful against non-cupcake teams. I'd also argue that going up 10 also effectively puts IU away and UM was at their 25-ish when that ball was thrown.
Plus, I'm just responding to the comment in the podcast about how that was a good play. He also tried insanely hard to throw a pick earlier only for Bell to bail him out, and he sailed a couple of easier throws. He's a good QB but people keep talking about how the offense seems to be stuck in 2nd gear and then bring up every other possible reason why beyond "maybe they're not trying to overwhelm their starting QB making his (as you noted) 5th career start". I've said this elsewhere but critiquing does not make you a hater of a guy.
I like Okie, I'm just saying that putting him in the same realm as Morris seems premature right now. If he shows up against PSU and plays well then maybe he really has just turned the corner and will be a major contributor. But it still feels like a guy who's relying on athleticism and maybe doesn't have a ton of tape on him yet; as the season goes on teams will compensate and we'll see how he responds. He doesn't need to be Ojabo or Hutchinson but I also get a sense people are expecting him to be an all-conference type player this year and it feels a little early given the competition.
October 13th, 2022 at 3:41 PM ^
FWIW, I don't believe that you're being a hater, just disagreeing with your opinion in relation to the interception. If you go back and watch the route developments you'll probably agree that the only other guy open is Schoon on the front side slant The pick comes after the huge Henning return and the 15 yard penalty on the punt. They're at the 18, IU is in 2man and we're running 5wide. Bell runs a bit of a skinny post from the slot against a LB. The only other guy that's open is Schoon (from #1) running an in or a slant. Bell is breaking away from the play side safety, against a linebacker. You can argue that the ball could have been placed more inside, but the LB just makes a good play and they get a fortuitous deflection.
If anything you can chalk that up to play design and not having your #1 run a route with a more aggressive stem so it can hold the safety's eyes longer in a condensed area of the field. There really isn't anywhere else to go with the ball that also doesn't put the ball on a covered receiver because they're in the red zone, IU is only rushing 4, and is playing a true 2 man to the pass strength and 2 match to the field. If you throw to Johnson out of the slot, the corner is going to come off his vertical route that gets passed to the safety and break on Johnson running an out into the boundary.
From my vantage point the dude is playing fine for his 5th start. Some of the other throws definitely ill advised like the one Bell redeemed. However, this pick is one you can chalk up to just ball playing, sometimes the dude makes a great deflection and the guy tracking the ball doesn't collide with anyone else. If the dude stumbles over the bodies of Bell and the linebacker it's not a pick. In my opinion, far from the reckless under throw Cade had when he threw the deep shot intended for Anthony that got picked earlier this season.
October 13th, 2022 at 4:03 PM ^
On UFR rating he's scoring much higher than Ojabo did for the amount of play time- more than twice as many plusses per snap.
He's a five star- if he has his head on straight he will have a major impact. DE is a position that there are very few misses in ratings.
October 13th, 2022 at 3:23 PM ^
Barnhart v Jones
I expect Barnhart to be a lot more sound this week getting to focus on RT. It has to be hard to be the 6th OL at either T or G position.
October 13th, 2022 at 3:51 PM ^
Trial by fire.
October 13th, 2022 at 4:04 PM ^
My favorite part of the podcast was Seth saying OSUs wide receivers are not coached very well and Brian slapping back. Hot takes are awesome and the fact that they can banter back and forth and not just agree with each other all the time makes it a very fun dynamic. Very enjoyable.
October 13th, 2022 at 4:19 PM ^
Isn't Brian Hartline regarded as an excellent WR coach? I could see Seth's point if he was talking about their DBs...
October 13th, 2022 at 4:45 PM ^
I honestly don't know how good of a receivers coach Hartline is?
He was a great player, and gets to coach a bunch of 5 stars. . .
I believe he is also passing coordinator so he likely doesn't suck. OSU doesn't have morals, but they have standards.
October 13th, 2022 at 5:42 PM ^
To clear this up, I think Seth was basically saying that the IU receivers get more of a detailed, nuanced coaching attempt than what OSU has. OSU can roll the ball out there and tell their guys to go be themselves (read better than anyone else out there). They put in the work and are great players but they don't have to focus on the minutia of winning a specific type of route against a guy who favors a particular method of rerouting a receiver.
OSU can just say to Emeka Egubka or Marvin Harrison Jr., "Don't think too much, you're a better athlete, trust your ability, relax go play." Those guys are all stallions who have a ton of natural ability. They don't need to fill their index card to the edge with notes, they can go be a bunch of five stars.
The IU receivers aren't better than OSU's but in the lead up to Michigan week they probably got the level of game planning OSU does for a CFBP game, not week 6.
October 13th, 2022 at 10:02 PM ^
Really I was prefacing a compliment to the IU receivers who were getting off the line on Turner when Olave did not.
October 14th, 2022 at 6:46 AM ^
Maybe go straight to the compliment and skip the Graham Couch-level hot take?
October 14th, 2022 at 10:05 AM ^
Texas A&M has as much talent as anyone and they're not even close to being as good as OSU. Sorry but with Brian on this one. It was also crazy when Seth seemed to be saying Eyabi didn't get coached at Alabama. When you're at programs performing that well it's not JUST talent. We saw poor coaching with great talent and that was OSU's defense, which was not nearly as good as their WRs.
October 13th, 2022 at 4:43 PM ^
"JJ had a great game, even the interception"
Come on, man. Cade could do nothing right last year because he "left yards on the field". JJ throws an interception in the end zone on a ball he should NOT have thrown, and Sam/Devin/and other star gazers still praising that play. IT. WAS. AN. INTERCEPTION.
October 13th, 2022 at 7:22 PM ^
If Penn State has the ball on the Michigan 20, and for some reason Michael Barrett has to cover Parker Washington one-on-one, what outcome are you expecting on the play?
October 13th, 2022 at 4:56 PM ^
Yo, the commercial mid-sentence is kinda effed up.
October 13th, 2022 at 5:23 PM ^
Brian, welcome back. Looking much more upbeat. Always great to see you enjoying work again sir.
October 13th, 2022 at 5:45 PM ^
I think Brian and Seth dona great job breaking things down.
But, I think they are overblowing the pistol play action thing. Penn State will likely rep some play action passes against pistol, but they are guessing what UM will run as a play action out of pistol. I’m sure the action and routes will be different than what PSU reps. You also have to rely on your guys not to suck up when they see run. If Michigan has a couple successful pistol runs early, the play action will work, which is true of any play action regardless of formation.
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