This Week’s Obsession: Assistant 180 Comment Count

Seth

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Nuss went from sense-bringing savior to Brandon crony really in one trip to South Bend. And he didn’t even make our list. [Fuller]

The Question:

The assistant you changed your opinion on the fastest, negative or positive? Note: this was inspired by a conversation about Durkin, whom nobody took. In fact we probably left a lot of answers on the table in trying to avoid the obvious.

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The Responses:

Adam: I was on the fence when Jedd Fisch was hired; he hadn't spent more than two seasons anywhere since his time as an assistant QB/WR coach with the Ravens from 2004-2007, and his stints as an offensive coordinator in college and the NFL yielded uninspiring results. One need only look as far as his Hello post to see that advanced stats weren't kind to his tenure as a college or pro OC outside of one shiny FEI number in 2011.

You shouldn't judge based on a limited data set, and Fisch's work is a reminder why. Jake Rudock, already a pretty good quarterback when he got to Ann Arbor, saw his completion percentage rise 2.1% and his yards per attempt rise 0.7 yards to 7.8 from 2014 to 2015. The Harbaugh caveat applies, but the receivers also made big year-to-year improvements.

[After the jump: another thinks—we had them coming]

Amara Darboh's catch rate rose 6.7% and his yards per target increased by 0.5 from 2014 to 2015 to a total of 7.6 YPT. Jehu Chesson's catch rate didn't rise as much as Darboh's (up 4.2% to 62.5% in 2015), but his yards per target jumped a massive 3.2 to 9.6 YPT in 2015. RYPR, a Bill Connelly measure that looks at a receivers production, how important they are to their team, how good the team's passing game is, and how often the team passes, was not kind to Darboh (201st overall) and Chesson (665th) in 2014. By 2015, both players were basically in the top 50, with Darboh 53rd overall and Chesson jumping up 620 spots to 45th.

From Fisch admonishing Harbaugh to run a play that wasn't on the call sheet that ended up winning the game against in Indiana in double OT to the "good shit, Jedd" gif to the efficacious screen game for which Harbaugh heaped praise on Fisch, the year ended with his one-year contract as cause for concern, not celebration.

All of the advanced stats provide strong supporting evidence but don't consider the most important number: two, the number of years Fisch's contract was extended a few months ago. Using the Indiana game as the point where my opinion had completely flipped, it took only 11 months to go from thinking his title was a fancy way of saying he's a WR coach to viewing him as either the de facto offensive coordinator or co-OC and as responsible as anyone for the offense's growth.

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David: Lavall Jordan was hired by John Beilein after the disastrous 09-10 season.  That season went down in flames and in order to save his job, Beilein completely remade his staff.  He poached Jordan from rival Iowa, who also had a mediocre season. 

Though not highly-touted, Lavall came to be known as a "guard developer."  He started off very quickly turning Darius Morris into one of the best guards in the B10.  His PPG went from 4 to 15, APG from 2.4 to 6.7, and his 3FG% from a paltry .179 to an increased .250, including All-B10 honors.  It might have worked too well and Morris left after his sophomore year to go to the NBA.

Guys that followed include: Trey Burke, Nik Stauskas, Caris LeVert.  Burke went from a PSU-bound 3* to POY and a Top 10 NBA draft pick.  Stauskas was a lot higher rated, but after blowing up in his sophomore year, he followed the 2 years and out trend and also became a Top 10 pick in the draft.  LeVert was a little different.  He wasn't as coveted as the previous few guys, but still has a lot of potential for a post-March class-filler.  LeVert returned for both his junior and senior seasons, but neither worked out for him health-wise.  It remains to be seen where he'll get drafted, but after his junior season he was talked about as a borderline lottery pick. 

Over the last couple seasons, you could see the development in guys like Rahk and Irvin.  Rahk came in as a super raw athlete and has turned into...maybe Michigan's most well-rounded player?  Irvin also has grown his game from Just A Shooter to a bit of a drive-and-kick player.  Jordan won't be around for the end of either of those careers, but their progression has been easily noticeable.

Lavall Jordan was considered for the Butler head coaching job a few seasons ago.  He was ultimately passed over, but UW-Milwaukee finally came calling in early April.  He has done a lot for Beilein and Michigan in his six seasons and certainly deserves and opportunity to see if he can run his own ship.  It also works well for Michigan because when Beilein retires in the not-too-distant future, Michigan should have some indication of what Jordan looks like making all of the decisions.

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Seth: I may be betraying my own folly here but, well, West Virginia's pass defense was ranked 2nd in S&P+ in 2007, and ​Tony Gibson​ had turned Ryan Mundy into an NFL prospect in a year after three of that guy wandering lost in Michigan's defensive backfield. It was 2008, and we were young and in love with Rich Rod's modernization mandate, Barwis's wolves, and advanced maths, and I clung to that ranking which probably had a lot to do with Jeff Casteel's diabolical blitzes.

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Before “Never Forget” starting taking its toll we got a preview of 3-3-5 hell on the day RR put Gibson in charge. [via DetNews]

Through much of 2008 the only major hit to my inflated rating of Gibson's stock was when Juice Williams turned Michigan's entire defense into a twitching pile of goo. By Penn State Donovan Warren had perceptively checked out, and they were doing panicky things like inserting Cissoko.

Then came Purdue, when the defense suddenly switched to a 3-3-5 stack that didn't cover out routes. Since Shafer was a 4-3 guy his whole life, and Gibson was the chief representative of the West Virginia Party, it didn't take long to deduce there'd been some sort of coup, and who was in charge. In the UFR Brian openly asked...

>"Is Gibson completely inept or something? He was one of the two guys who made an appearance with Rodriguez at his first Michigan press conference (Magee was the other) and therefore is subject to accusations of Debordian cronyism from the skeptical; he and Rodriguez have been joined at the hip for a long time. West Virginia fans were mostly glad to be rid of him."

I made my name with a series documenting the personnel problems underlying the "Never Forget" era of Michigan's secondary, and Lloyd's players and staff can shoulder as much of the blame for rejecting the transplant as Rodriguez's staff. There's also recruiting Denard to Michigan, and Gibson has done very well as WVU's defensive coordinator (with an underrated assist from now-UCLA DC and onetime Paterno heir apparent Tom Bradley). But if we're talking about dramatic changes in perception, nobody can match the drop from unreasonable high to unfair low that Gibson undertook in November 2008.

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Ace I was a freshman in 2006, the year defensive backs coach Ron English took over as defensive coordinator from Jim Hermann. This was before I followed position coaches much at all, so for me, English entered with a clean slate.

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Back when Ron English ended a dominant season with a total misfire at Ohio State it didn’t earn you the Maryland job. [via MGoBlue]

For the first nine games, the defense absolutely kicked ass. The run defense was impenetrable, the pass rush was fearsome, and Leon Hall was a great number one corner. I watched with glee from the student section as David Harris patrolled sideline-to-sideline, Shawn Crable mad storked his way around blockers, and LaMarr Woodley killed people. While Michigan’s offense wasn’t bad themselves, I couldn’t wait to see English’s vicious cohort of demons get back on the field.

In an oddly timed non-conference game, a 3-6 Ball State squad came to Michigan Stadium for what would be undefeated Michigan’s final tune-up before The Game. While the defense didn’t exactly falter, they allowed BSU to hang around; at the time, most figured the too-close-for-comfort 34-26 win was simply a product of the team looking ahead to Football Armageddon.

Instead, it was a harbinger of doom. Instead of a heated defensive battle, The Game quickly turned into a shootout, and it revealed just how little Michigan was prepared for the new era of spread offenses. All year, the defense had crushed a series of pro-style plodders, but English had no idea how to counter OSU’s three- and four-wide sets with Troy Smith taking snaps.

In the waning moments of the first half, the Buckeyes—already up a touchdown—drove deep into Michigan territory. OSU emptied the backfield, sticking future first-rounder Anthony Gonzalez in the slot. English decided the best way to defend this was to put Chris Graham, a 230-pound inside linebacker, in man coverage on a NFL-level slot receiver. You’ll never guess what happened next.

Ohio State shredded Michigan to the tune of 7.2 yards per play. In the Rose Bowl, USC ripped apart the secondary in the second half to cruise to a win. The next season, Michigan played their first two games against modern spread offenses.

I’ll spare you the details. Needless to say, I was no longer a fervent Ron English supporter.

Comments

ScruffyTheJanitor

April 27th, 2016 at 3:40 PM ^

It has to be Durkin. The way the guy completly brain-farted the OSU game away blew my mind. I would have understood trying a few different things to cover up for Glasgow's absense; the fact that he refused to make adjustments was dissapointing. I wasn't expecting a Michigan win, but I sure as hell wasn't expecting the defense to take a giant dump on my heart. 

dragonchild

April 27th, 2016 at 7:29 PM ^

Was not picking Durkin "avoiding the obvious"?

My opinion of Durkin's skill didn't change.  I still think most available evidence indicates he's a fast-rising and very competent DC.  He took an already-good defense and made it better, which isn't easy to do because there's presumably little left to go.  And for most of the season his schemes covered the unit's weaknesses (namely the linebackers' athleticism).

What changed was my opinon of Durkin as a person.  Indiana exposed him but he was too busy going on dates with Maryland (or too far gone in "take this job and shove it" mode) to fix what done broke.  I still think he's a top-tier DC; I just now think he's an asshole.

P.S. I will admit I was wrong about Fisch though.  What Adam said.

bsand2053

April 27th, 2016 at 11:28 PM ^

It always surprises me that Durkin gets so much shit for the OSU game while Harbaugh is rarely mentioned.  I know Jim is more of an offensive guy but I have to believe he does more than just make sure DJ was awake during film sessions.

Magnus

April 28th, 2016 at 11:03 AM ^

I think it's quite a jump to assume that since Durkin was interested in the Maryland job that he didn't put in any work to beat OSU. I have seen zero evidence of that, other than the fact that a) he was hired by Maryland and b) Ohio State beat us soundly. OSU was the reigning national chaampion and had lots of good pieces. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Michigan just biffed and that OSU just upped their game. After all, they have been kicking our butts for over a decade.

dragonchild

April 28th, 2016 at 1:38 PM ^

I'm not sure if you're trying to exonerate him but Durkin being an irresponsible asshole who half-assed his OSU game prep is the LEAST damning accusation.  Because if it's NOT right, and I concede there's no proof, then he really thought he could stop the most athletic 11-man run game in the FBS with 3 down linemen and a safety 20 yards off.  As in, he actually thought that might be a Good Idea.

He didn't have many good pieces left and I fiercely defended him for that, but he also made zero adjustments when what he did prepare stopped working.

Well, we'll see which is true next time OSU plays Maryland I guess.

Needs

April 27th, 2016 at 3:52 PM ^

English shoulders a lot of blame for the inability in developing a plan to defend the spread, but there was an injury early in the OSU game (Jamar Adams maybe?) that totally screwed what was an already sparse secondary due to recruiting failures. I think the alternative to walking Graham out over Gonzalez was to insert Johnny Sears. When the question is "Should I play Chris Graham or Johnny Sears?" it doesn't really matter what the answer is.

Needs

April 28th, 2016 at 7:22 AM ^

Burgess either missed that game entirely or went out after giving it a try, but there was an additional injury in the secondary, I'm pretty sure it was Adams going down with a knee on that terrible resodded field. And that defense, for all it's strength, really only had 5 guys that played in the secondary (Hall, Trent, Adams, Ryan Mundy and Brandent Englemon). With Adams out, they were stuck playing base against a team that played at least 3 WRs as their base offense.

And you could fault English for not developing more depth during the year, but when you look at the roster, there's just not a lot there. The only backups in the secondary that would go on to contribute in future years were Jonas Mouton and Stevie Brown, and those guys were both freshmen that would have to move to LB to see the field. 

jmblue

April 27th, 2016 at 3:47 PM ^

 

Lavall Jordan was hired by John Beilein after the disastrous 09-10 season. That season went down in flames and in order to save his job, Beilein completely remade his staff.

 

I don't think this is correct.  Beilein took some heat then but he was not seriously in jeopardy of getting fired.  

707oxford

April 27th, 2016 at 3:52 PM ^

GERG came in with that fabulous hair, and not far removed from a national title with Texas.  

 

Then he rubbed a stuffed beaver in our players' faces.

jmblue

April 27th, 2016 at 4:11 PM ^

But he also had had a horrible tenure at Syracuse.  A lot of us rationalized it away by explaining that he officially wasn't then DC then, since he was the head coach . . . but doubt was lingering in a lot of our minds when he was hired.

He did have one fine head of hair though.

 

MI Expat NY

April 27th, 2016 at 4:14 PM ^

Wasn't everyone trying to talk themselves into the GERG hiring when it happened?  He had just finished the utter destruction of Syracuse football over a four year period.  I thought the general feeling here and elsewhere was "maybe it won't be bad, he did well at Texas and Denver, right? RIGHT???"

wile_e8

April 27th, 2016 at 4:20 PM ^

Yeah, as others have mentioned, he was pretty far removed from the national title by the time he arrived here, and was most remembered for the terrible tenure at Syracuse that he had just finished. The initial reaction was less than stellar. So I don't know how this can be a 180 if he tenure turned out pretty much like everyone expected when he was hired.

BlueMan80

April 27th, 2016 at 4:30 PM ^

Rich Rod made some comment about have GERG meant he had a head coach for the defense.  So, GERG was being given the lattitude to do what he wanted.  He failed leaving a mushroom cloud over the stadium.  I was at the Illinois track meet game that Michigan won in 2010, but I never felt so bad about a win as that one.  The defense was just pathetic.  Like they had never seen a wheel route.  Many around me called for the head of the beaver rubber that day.

Kevin13

April 27th, 2016 at 3:58 PM ^

I was really excited when English become the DC and at first our defense looked like I had always dreamed about. Tough, attacking shutting people down. Then we played spread teams and it looked like we thought playing defense was illegal. 

SwordDancer710

April 27th, 2016 at 4:01 PM ^

After the debacle that was Al Borges, I figured that Nussmeier (who we paid over 750k for to seatl from Alabama) would fix the offense and work well in Hoke's system with senior Devin Gardner. And then 2014 happened. 

He couldn't use Devin's mobility, he didn't improve our tempo or O-line issues, and was just a terrible OC. A lot of the issues could be placed on Al Borges's failures, but with the vast improvement under Drevno and Fisch, I think we greatly overestimated Nussmeier.

Needs

April 27th, 2016 at 4:08 PM ^

This is a great answer. At least under Borges, for all his faults, we had exciting offensive performances (Devin vs OSU) interspersed with the 27 for 26. Nussmeier, after all the hype, ran a tremendously boring offense that seemed to consist of nothing but a bunch of 4 yard crossing routes.

kehnonymous

April 27th, 2016 at 4:40 PM ^

Al Borges on the whole failed at offensive coordination, but at least 20% of the time the dude was all aces (OSU 2011 & 2013, ND 2013, Indiana 2013)

Picture a punch-drunk Mario that keeps running into Goombas at 1 mph on his way to bash his head against the same block wall... but one out of five times, the block wall explodes because there's a power-up star behind it.   That's Al Borges.

UMgradMSUdad

April 28th, 2016 at 6:44 AM ^

I'll always wonder how much blame for the offensive woes should be placed on Hoke. I remember the IU game when it was realized our defense couldn't stop IU from scoring, so Hoke unleashed Borges, knowing our only chance was to score a lot of points. Granted, IU's defense wasn't exactly stout, but I still think Hoke limited both Borges and Nuss with his offensive philosophy that time of possession and not taking chances were more important than scoring a lot of points

Glennsta

April 28th, 2016 at 6:56 AM ^

But I didn't see much in Nuss' body of work before arriving here to suggest that he was capable of putting together and running an explosive offense. I expected a dominating, downhill running game with just enough passing to keep the run defenders off the line.  Of course, we never got that either.

imafreak1

April 27th, 2016 at 4:19 PM ^

In terms of 180, it is totally Nussmeier.

He went from the Alabama golden boy to breaking the no shutout streak with that trip to South Bend. Was he even interested in scoring or was that game just a well attended practice?

That game punctured so many balloons.

1VaBlue1

April 27th, 2016 at 4:54 PM ^

I found it hard to buy in to the Nuss hype. Bama was sound, but boring. Plus the rumors about him being on the outs in Birmingham were all but verified when Saban immediately hired Kiffen. Not sure that was such a big steal. Aside from that, I never felt like firing Borges was Hoke's idea, let alone hiring someone he'd never met. Did anyone ever see Hoke and Nuss next to each other, or talking (not bickering)?



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PopeLando

April 27th, 2016 at 11:48 PM ^

I had a chuckle of sadness (that's a thing) when the announcers talked about how good of a runner their QB was...but that they weren't going to be utilizing that because "that's not who they want to be." My thought was: so you have otherworldly QB talent which, not only are you refusing to use, but will get killed by forcing him to do something which your team is specifically not designed or capable of doing? This is going to be a long day for Florida. I feel for you, Gators QB. We've been through that.

Blue Balls Afire

April 27th, 2016 at 4:01 PM ^

Mine was Al Borges.  I didn't know much about him when he came on with Hoke, but the media said good things and I knew he had success at Auburn with big backs running a power offense that Hoke said he wanted, so I had high hopes.  Then to watch that guy mismanage the players on his roster, constantly trying to fit square pegs into round holes, and to have such horrible tactical acument in-game, totally turned me against him.

Seth

April 28th, 2016 at 8:46 AM ^

Borges was a square peg from the get-go. The media always say nice things about the new guy, and we didn't think he would get as bad as he did, but Borges was an adequate OC by 1990s Michigan standards. Like on his way in I'd have said he fits between Stan Parrish and Terry Malone.

But Hoke shouldn't have hired his old buddy nor tried to change the offense. He had two more years of Denard and two of Devin Gardner after that. All he had to do was retain Calvin Magee and let him run the offense. We didn't realize it at the time but Cal said he would have stayed if asked. He loved the players they'd recruited, and wanted to be a head coach one day. And anyone who argues that Magee wouldn't have gotten along with the new staff doesn't know Cal Magee.

1VaBlue1

April 28th, 2016 at 9:53 AM ^

I don't think they needed Magee, though he would have certainly helped.  I mean, Borges did a pretty good job running the read option in that first 11-2 season.  It's from there that the whole thing started going south with the slow change to pro-sets and forcing guys to do things they couldn't do (ie: making Tom Brady out of Robinson and Gardner).  But I thought they did a really good job of shaping the offense to the guys they had in yr 1, so I don't buy that they had to keep Magee.

But to your point, keep Magee until Gardner is gone, then go full-boar pro offense with a new OC in Yr 5.  Hindsight says that would have been a far better option than the path Hoke chose...

Seth

April 28th, 2016 at 10:07 AM ^

They didn't run much read option in 2011. They did run an inverted veer option, but not correctly, and it didn't really have the option component--they would block the end the real play is supposed to option, and left a linebacker unblocked for Denard to deal with. It worked well because  "Denard: I need you to dodge this totally unblocked guy!" actually worked as an offense.

The zone read was in the offense under Gardner, but--and forgive me if this is just reading too much into things--I remember a lot of the time he checked into that, so I imagine it wasn't Borges's intent to call those so often.

Hindsight doesn't matter. In January 2011 the clear move was to retain Magee or if that wasn't doable, retain the offense, which was No. 2 in the country despite every key member of it having SOPHOMORE eligibility or less.

mclub

April 27th, 2016 at 4:13 PM ^

Michigan played Indiana right before The Game in 2006.  Breaston had a big game and took a punt back if my memory serves me right.