[Patrick Barron]

Upon Further Review 2019: Defense vs Indiana Comment Count

Brian November 26th, 2019 at 3:34 PM

image-6_thumb_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thu[1]SPONSOR NOTE: Upon Further Review is sponsored by HomeSure Lending and Matt Demorest. Rates are the lowest they've been in three years so it can't hurt to check whether you can save money on a refinance. Or you could buy a house in Ann Arbor! Good luck with that!

Matt's relocated the bus to Pioneer this year, BTW, and invites everyone to stop by and say hi. There's beer. I mean, obviously. Matt. Matt and beer: a good pairing.

FORMATION NOTES: The usual split between one high and two high looks with a lean to two high, and a ton of depth from the safeties:

image_thumb4[3]

That was an extreme example since M was blitzing off the corner but the depth of those safeties was pretty consistent. This didn't make a ton of sense against Indiana's offense and almost seems like Michigan getting in some trial runs for what they intend to do against OSU.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Standard on DL, with Paye/Kemp/Hutchinson getting most of the work, Danna spotting the two DEs, and Uche/Dwumfour being an either/or with Uche having a small lead in snaps. Standard at LB, where the starters went virtually the whole way. Hinton did get some early snaps. Michigan's short yardage package now adds him as a third DT.

Hawkins's absence in the secondary meant Dax Hill got his first start; when Michigan went to their jetpack sets they brought in Gray instead of a safety.

No real surprises during quasi-backup time late. Jess Speight continues to be the first guy off the bench when it's garbage time. Vilain, Jeter, and Upshaw got a few snaps; Barrett got in at viper a bit.

[After THE JUMP: it was bad, and then it was okay]

Ln Dn Ds O Form D Pack Front Cover look Type Rush Play Player Yards
O25 1 10 Shotgun trips bunch TE 4-2-5 4-3 over SAM Press one high Pass 5 Corner D Hill 16
Bunch where the two outer guys stop and inner WR runs a corner on Dax, who has inside leverage. Dax(-1, cover -1) beat but does get an immediate tackle in; ball very well thrown, up and away so no shot at anything else. Glasgow(+1) dodged an RB cut block and Paye(+1) went through the LT(pressure +2 )and if this throw’s not out now QB is sacked.
O41 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 4-2-5 4-3 even Press two high Pass 4 Bubble screen Hudson 6
Short side bubble after PA draws Hudson(-0.5) inside, too much respect to the IU ground game. Hudson able to push Hale out after six. Two S at 15 yards on this play, which is super conservative. RPS –1.
O47 2 4 Shotgun trips 3-3-5 30 nickel slide Press one high Pass 4 Fade L Hill Inc (Pen +15)
Paye(-1) jumps offside. Free play, Ramsey chucks a fade at Westbrook; Hill(+1, cover +1) has won over the top of this and gets an incredibly bad PI call on an uncatchable ball. Refs -3.
M38 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 4-2-5 4-3 over Press two high Pass N/A PA TE bubble Hudson 11
PA, LB level gone, Hudson again peeks in at the backfield but he does get over the top of the slot guy trying to crack him and force this back okay, three yards downfield and a little inside the numbers. Dax has dropped to 15 yards presnap and that’s the main reason this is eight yards before contact. RPS -2.
M27 1 10 Shotgun trips 4-2-5 Nickel even Press one high Run N/A QB counter T Paye 6
RB motioned out of the backfield; fake flare screen and then run a counter the other way with the QB. M blitzes Glasgow and dives Paye(-2, tackling -2) inside; guy on Paye lunges and falls and Paye has a shot at a TFL. Paye gets too aggressive and Ramsey jukes him. RPS +2. Dax(+0.5) fills pretty quickly here.
M21 2 4 Shotgun empty 4-2-5 Dime even Press one high Pass 5 Slant Hill 6
Glasgow pulled out to cover the RB; press on three guys and then Dax(-1, cover -1) is playing off and with outside leverage, which seems backwards. Easy presnap read leads to rhythm throw; immediate tackle with Metellus(+0.5) reacting very quickly to help hold this down.
M15 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 4-2-5 Nickel even Press one high Run N/A Inside zone Dwumfour 4
First straight run sees Dwumfour(+0.5) hold up pretty well to a double, sticking at the LOS, but he gets sideways and when Scott plows into him the pile lurches. Danna and McGrone in the area to help tackle.
M11 2 6 Shotgun 3-wide Jetpack CB Dime even Press two high Pass 4 Scramble Paye 7
Gray in as extra DB in jetpack with Hawkins out. M covers what IU wants to do which is a wheel route for the RB, with Hill(+1, cover +1) falling off the attempted pick and Gray(-1, cover -1) not replacing on the WR to the interior. Ramsey comes off the wheel and has nothing (cover +2) but he’s able to scramble as Uche(-1) and Paye(-2) both get too far upfield and don’t maintain lane responsibility. RPS +1, had a plan. Pressure –2.zsdfgbgfdsaz
M4 1 G Pistol 3TE 4-2-5 Goal line Press one high Run N/A Split zone Paye 2
Dwumfour(+0.5) gets a little depth and the TE gets tripped up on his OL a little. Paye(+0.5) is able to dismiss him; he and Glasgow stack up Scott at the LOS and that dude toughs out two yards out of nothing.
M2 2 G Pistol 2TE Goal line Goal line Press zero Run N/A Inside zone Hutchinson 1
Hutchinson(+1) chucks a TE past him and hits Scott at the LOS; Scott burrows for a yard even with McGrone coming up to help hit too; just awkward positioning and Scott being a beast.
M1 3 G Pistol 2TE Goal line Goal line Press zero Run N/A Inside zone N/A 1
Hutch and Hinton give a tiny amount of ground; Hudson comes around and is about to hit Scott; Scott leaps into the endzone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 0-7, 10 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Pack Front Cover look Type Rush Play Player Yards
O25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 3-3 stack Press one high Pass N/A Delayed bubble Gray 11
An incredibly delayed bubble as Ramsey keeps and gets contained by Paye(+0.5) and Metellus(+0.5); Gray(-2) gets over-eager to get after this and runs at Ramsey, so very delayed bubble actually works.
O36 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 3-3 stack Press three high Pass N/A PA TE bubble Uche 4
This is so weird from M. Dax is at 16 yards, Metellus at 9, and then Hudson backs out to 12. CB blitz helps explain that but even so. Uche(+0.5) moves out over the slot and drives his blocker back, getting in a tackle attempt that is barely successful; a little more go would have made this a good idea a la putting Jake Ryan over the slot. As it is Uche has no support with super deep S and Hendershot can fall forward.
O40 2 5 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 Exotic Press two high Penalty N/A False start N/A -5
This had Paye at the LB level and was gonna be weird. McGrone(+1) clearly induced this jump with a bluff at the LOS btw.
O35 2 11 Shotgun 4-wide Jetpack CB Dime under Press two high Pass 4 Tunnel screen L Hill Inc (Pen +10)
RB flare, McGrone goes with him, tunnel the other way. M’s stunt/double loop is on and disrupts the releases here so looks like Hudson is going to force this back to DL and this is going to be nothing; Hill jumps this and grabs the WR about six frame before the ball comes out, drawing a holding call. I’ve seen this a lot and this is almost always let go. Bah. Hill –1. RPS +2.
O45 2 1 Shotgun 3-wide 4-2-5 4-3 even Press two high Run N/A Split zone Kemp 6
Dwumfour gets passed up by the G over him and the LT tries to reach him. He gets under this and into the backfield a but but then he goes down. He did get to the hash before doing so, so I guess that might be okay? Kemp(-1) gets moved out by a double and McGrone(-0.5) clunked by that G, so an easy conversion. Hutch(+0.5) came from the backside quickly to tackle but Scott drags him.
M49 1 10 Shotgun twins twin TE 3-3-5 3-3 stack Press two high Pass 5 ?? Hutchinson INT
Indiana attempts to go deep; looks like Gray gets beat by a step and is going to be in tough. Rush overwhelms as the pocket disintegrates, with Kemp(+1) bursting through his man and Hutch(+2, pressure +3) ripping past a TE and hitting the QB’s arm on the throw. Ball flutters to nowhere; Dax(+2) makes a tough diving catch.
Drive Notes: Interception, 7-7, 3 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Pack Front Cover look Type Rush Play Player Yards
O48 1 10 Shotgun trips 4-2-5 Nickel even Press two high Pass N/A Bubble screen Hudson 6
M asking for this with two vs three to the field; bad throw gives M time to rally. Hudson held(refs -1) and his momentum gets slowed up so he makes contact at 3 yards and gets moved back; Hudson(-0.5) really could have been more aggressive on this, he keeps checking run; if he gets outside of this solid chance interior pursuit holds this down. RPS -1.
M46 2 4 Shotgun trips TE 4-2-5 Nickel even Press one high Pass 5 TE delay Dwumfour Inc
Man Hudson(-1, cover -1) is just hanging out on this TE and should be wise to this route but gets too far outside and upfield and is beat when TE releases. He can probably recover to tackle from behind before this gets giant. Probably. M gets lucky as Dwumfour(+1, pressure +1) bats it and the TE can’t bring in the ensuing duck.
M46 3 4 Shotgun trips TE Jetpack CB Nickel even SAM Press one high Pass 6 Rub wheel D Hill 23
IU pulls their WRs tight and runs a wheel route behind the two outside WRs, one of whom picks off Thomas; Dax(-2, cover -2) is clearly supposed to switch onto the wheel but doesn’t until Thomas starts yelling at him to. Six man pressure mostly picked up but Hudson(+1, pressure +1) gets around the corner and is likely to hit if Ramsey has to go to a second read.
M23 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 4-2-5 Nickel even Press one high Run N/A Inside zone Hutchinson 2
Ramsey really should pull but does not. Hutch(+0.5) slides down and tackles; Kemp(+0.5) stunted with Hinton and whacks an OL back to help shut the space down.
M21 2 8 Shotgun trips Jetpack CB 5-1 fold Press one high Run N/A Inside zone Danna? 17
Jetpack gets got as IU expects and gets a stunt so their C pops up and cuts off Glasgow. Still could be okay but one of McGrone/Danna busts. McGrone shoots outside as if it’s a stunt; Danna does not dive inside. I assume it’s Danna(-2) since M stunts its as off in these situations. Gap, chunk. RPS push since I think without the bust this might have worked.
M4 1 G Shotgun trips TE tight Goal line Goal line Press zero Run N/A Edge pitch McGrone 3
McGrone(-2, tackling -2) flies out on this and has a shot at a TFL; he misses the tackle on a Scott stutter step; gotta at least force this back because Hutchinson(+0.5) is charging out behind you. Hutch still manages to get this down, barely, before the sticks.
M1 2 G Ace twin TE Goal line Goal line Press zero Run N/A QB sneak N/A 1
They get it. M actually almost stuffs this up until Scott plows his own QB into the endzone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-14, 14 min 2nd Q. Indiana is done scoring.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Pack Front Cover look Type Rush Play Player Yards
O40 1 10 Shotgun trips 4-2-5 Nickel even Press one high Run N/A Inside zone Dwumfour 0
DT twist puts Dwumfour(+1) a couple yards in the backfield; Kemp(+0.5) comes around and shoves the RT back; Hutch(+0.5) helps clean up. RPS +1.
O40 2 10 Shotgun trips bunch Jetpack CB Nickel under Press two high Pass 4 Hitch Uche Inc
This is open(cover -1) for 7 yards plus some YAC but Uche(+1, pressure +1) drives so far inside on another two-gap stunt that he seems to throw Ramsey off; his footwork is terrible and he turfs this.
O40 3 10 Shotgun empty Jetpack CB Dime even Press one high Pass 4 Sack Paye -2
Coverage sack(cover +3) as pressure(-1) is not there at first and Ramsey has time. Horrible zoomocam so dunno specifics downfield. Paye(+0.5) and Uche(+0.5) are able to peel back and contain the QB when he bugs out and Hutch finishes.
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-14, 9 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Pack Front Cover look Type Rush Play Player Yards
O38 1 10 Shotgun trips 3-3-5 3-3 stack Press one high Pass 4 Tunnel screen Metellus Inc
Tunnel doomed. Uche(+1, pressure +1) does the thing where he’s unblocked on a screen and gets in too fast, resulting in a high looping throw. Metellus(+1) has this dead to rights and gets a hit in on the catch, which is dropped; aided by bad play from a WR who took a bad angle. McGrone(+1) read this as well and would have pounded it for a TFL if necessary.
O38 2 10 Shotgun trips bunch Jetpack CB 5-0 fold Press three high Pass 4 Hitch D Hill 6
Dink hitch immediately tackled on by Dax(+0.5); M had dropped Hutch out and he just needed to drift a little more to the bunch side of things to be a real problem.
O44 3 4 Shotgun empty Jetpack CB Dime under Press one high Pass 4 Slot fade Thomas Inc
M again drops Hutch but Indiana’s going for a chunk. Thomas(+1, cover +1) step for step on this fade and has a great shot at anything over the top; he turns well at the attempted back shoulder and requires perfection to beat him; nope.
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-14, 7 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Pack Front Cover look Type Rush Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Shotgun trips 3-3-5 Nickel over Press one high Run N/A Inside zone McGrone 1
McGrone(+1) fires and tackles in the backfield; he didn’t really get a block but he had to respect a potential interior run, so he hits an OL trying to release to him and then explodes outside. Hutch(+0.5) slid inside into a double and stuck at the LOS to provide the flight path. Kemp(+1) drove his guy and forced it to McGrone.
M26 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 3-3 stack Press two high Pass 4 PA TE bubble McGrone 8
Paye at LB, Uche threatening, Paye sent with Glasgow dropping out. All this is irrelevant; McGrone(-1) drops out into the slot and then takes his eyes off his blocker to go attack vertically, getting cut off by his blocker and edged. Thomas forces it back at the numbers but M’s super conservative S positioning again allows a good gain on a dink. RPS -1.
M34 3 1 Ace 3TE 3-3-5 4-3 over SAM Press two high Run N/A Jet sweep Uche -4
Under center jet where the two TEs widen out and the LT blocks down. This leaves Uche(+2) unblocked, and he explodes vertically to TFL and end this drive. RPS +3. Dunno why you’re running a jet that gets killed if someone gets quick vertical penetration against an unblocked Uche.
Drive Notes: Punt, 21-14, 3 min 2nd Q. Indiana has a couple of plays at the end of the half from their own 4 that are not charted.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Pack Front Cover look Type Rush Play Player Yards
O25 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 4-2-5 Nickel even Press one high Pass 4 Scramble N/A 5 (Pen -10)
IU’s WRs trip each other, so Ramsey bugs out. Kemp(+1) in good position to get tackle attempt in but gets held and Ramsey's able to pick up 5.
O15 1 20 Shotgun 4-wide Jetpack CB Dime even Press two high Pass 4 Sack Paye -9
Two gap loop from Hutch again; Paye(+2, pressure +3) swims past the LT to get pressure and Hutch(+0.5) comes up on the outside to contain, sack.
O6 2 29 Shotgun 4-wide Jetpack CB Dime even Press two high Run N/A Zone read keep McGrone? 9
Paye crashes down hard and there’s no replace behind him so Ramsey can go get some yards before Metellus tracks him down. Could be McGrone, could be Paye. Probably McGrone(-1) since we really do not see this activity from M ends.
O15 3 20 Shotgun 4-wide Jetpack CB Dime even Press two high Pass 4 Improv N/A 20
Four man rush, ton of time, pressure -3. M’s stunts end up putting guys in their own way and Uche ends up on the ground after three guys hit him. McGrone is spying and on 3rd and 20 I’d much rather just have him blitz. Ramsey’s able to roll out and hit a guy who was on a fly route as he comes back to the sticks. Can’t blame the coverage.
O35 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 4-2-5 Nickel even? Press one high Pass 4 Waggle throwaway N/A Inc
Coverage(+2) good and Ramsey just punts it OOB. Hale broke open deeper late, which was a little dangerous; Dax may have gotten away with something there.
O35 2 10 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 5-0 fold Press two high Pass 5 Skinny post Hudson 24
Danna(+0.5) and McGrone(+0.5) combine to get through on a stunt as Danna pushes the LT a bit to let McGrone have a decnet flight path; Hudson(-2, cover -2) has inside leverage on the TE and lets him run by without a chuck, and then moves laterally, I guess in an attempt to PBU, which just means he can’t tackle. Chunk, Glasgow cleans up.
M41 1 10 Shotgun trips TE 3-3-5 ??? ? Pass 4 PA TE bubble L Hill 7
Tempo catches M off guard and they’re still checking with each other presnap. They get some semblance of a call in with Hill(-1) popping off the outside WR in trap but Hill then just stands there and the WR shoves him inside, leverage lost. Uche(+0.5) makes up an impressive amount of ground to hold this down even though it gets to the sideline. RPS -1.
M34 2 3 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 3-3 stack Press one high Run N/A Split zone Kemp 2
Kemp(+1) drives the C and disengages to tackle; no support as M is playing a 3 man line and Glasgow gets turned out by a free releasing G; not really worth a minus.
M32 3 1 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 3-3 stack Press one high Pass 4 Slot fade Hutchinson Inc
Hutch(+2, pressure +2) around the edge at 8 to force a throw. Faked MSU OPI in into a fade route; no sale for Hudson(+2, cover +2), who is over the top of this and then appears to get a PBU in on a pretty good back shoulder backup plan.
M32 4 1 Shotgun trips bunch tight Goal line Goal line Press zero Run N/A Inside zone Dwumfour 3 (Pen -10)
Dwumfour(+2) shoots outside and then comes around the LT, or would if the guy didn’t grab him around the neck. Flag. Kemp(+0.5) stood up his guy and Danna and Hinton got stalemates so nowhere to go except in the spot Dwumfour would be.
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-14, 6 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Pack Front Cover look Type Rush Play Player Yards
O25 1 10 Shotgun twins 4-2-5 4-3 even SAM Press two high Run N/A Inside zone Dwumfour 1
Dwumfour(+2) fires the RG in the backfield in a flash and tackles; Kemp(+1) gets a similar but not as emphatic win; only Scott’s beef keeps this from ending up in the backfield.
O26 2 9 Shotgun 4-wide Jetpack CB 5-0 fold Press one high Pass 5 Throwaway Glasgow Inc
Glasgow(+2, pressure +2) gets a run at the QB; RB whiffs a cut as Glasgow dodges around him; Ramsey just punts it. Danna(+0.5) there to prevent a rollout. Hill(+0.5, cover +1) in a good spot but this is a throwaway.
O26 3 9 Shotgun 4-wide Jetpack CB 5-0 fold Press one high Pass 5 Hitch Paye Inc
Paye(+3, pressure +3) with an instant edge win that can’t be better.Ramsey punts up a pass that’s impossibly good given the situation, a perfect back shoulder throw that beats Thomas, except that Thomas(+0.5) had just barely gotten this WR to step out on his own by winning over the top on a fade.
Drive Notes: Punt, 32-14, 4 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Pack Front Cover look Type Rush Play Player Yards
O29 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 4-2-5 4-3 even SAM Press one high Pass 4 Fly L Hill Inc
OL buys just enough time for the deep shot but with a couple guys coming through this is a push at worst for the pressure. Hill gets beat inside as Hale releases for a fade and then breaks inside of him; Dax moves up on a shorter route which is probably fine since Hill is supposed to have this route in the sideline. Ramsey loads up and fires on it. By the time the ball gets there Hill has caught up and actually passed Hale, albeit on the outside. Push?
O29 2 10 Shotgun 4-wide Jetpack CB Dime even Press two high Pass 4 Hitch Thomas Inc
Uche(+2, pressure +2) shoots inside the RT to force a quick throw; Thomas(+2, cover +2) in blanket coverage on it, with zero window. This throw is right on point and WR still has a diving one handed stab at it because that’s the only spot it could go.
O29 3 10 Shotgun trips Jetpack CB Dime even Press two high Pass 4 Sack Uche -10
Uche(+4, pressure +3) with the perfect edge win that Paye just had but didn’t get paid off on; this time Ramsey holds the ball for an extra beat and gets sack/stripped; Uche then recovers. Coverage(+1) good on first read and that’s all she wrote.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 32-14, 1 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Pack Front Cover look Type Rush Play Player Yards
O25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 4-2-5 Nickel even Press two high Run N/A Split zone Speight 1
Speight gets in for this snap. Here Speight(+1) takes a quick double and is able to fight back to the gap and tackle basically at the LOS; Glasgow(+0.5) comes up to hit the guy who released off Speight and shut down any space.
O26 2 9 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 3-3 stack Press one high Pass 4 Fade Thomas 29
Hinton(-1) jumps offsides as the NT. Default fade after that. Thomas(-0.5, cover +1) again in good position but the ball beats him as he turns right and then left as it’s a back shoulder; still gets a rake in but too late.
M45 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 3-3 stack Press one high Pass 4 Throwback screen Thomas 0
Orbit, fake end around, screen the other way. Thomas(+2, tackling +1) reads it, beats the OT coming to him, and submarines Scott on the catch.
M45 2 10 Shotgun 4-wide Jetpack CB 5-0 fold Press two high Run N/A Inside zone Uche 2
LT goes out, RT to LT, new guy at RT, IU tries to bait Uche(+1) into a pass rush against this guy and more or less gets it but Uche gets around so fast he’s able to redirect and tackle.
M43 3 8 Shotgun trips TE tight Jetpack CB Nickel even Press one high Pass 4 Fade L Hill 32
Uche(-1) jumps offsides. Paye(+0.5) and Glasgow(+0.5) both get decent rushes in(pressure+1) despite this; Hill(-2, cover -2) beat clean over the top by the IU WR and commits an obvious PI. Complete anyway.
M11 1 10 Ace twins twin TE 4-2-5 4-3 under Press zero Pass 5 Wheel D Hill Inc
Hutch(+1, pressure +1) able to spin through his guy and Ramsey chucks a back foot pass well into the sideline. Dax(+2, cover +2) got through a couple picks and is over the top of this.
M11 2 10 Shotgun trips Jetpack CB 30 dime slide Press two high Pass 4 Circle D Hill 7
Uche(+1, pressure +1) zips inside the T, gets a last second shove from a G, and ends up diving at Ramsey’s feet; Ramsey is able to hop over this and fire an accurate pass that Dax(+0.5) tackles immediately on after this was set up to be more successful; tough redirect. RPS -1.
M4 3 3 Shotgun twins twin TE 4-2-5 4-3 even SAM Press zero Run N/A Split zone Hutchinson 0
M has a stunt on; problem until Hutch(+1) bowls over a DE trying to post him up and shuts this gap down. Speight(+0.5) took a double and gave a little ground and then threatened to split it, not bad.
M4 4 3 Shotgun trips bunch 4-2-5 Nickel even Press one high Pass 5 Corner Metellus Inc
M covers the whole bunch well(cover +3), with Dax(+0.5) shooting up on the slant and Hill(+0.5) on the fade; Metellus(+2) is targeted on the corner and finds the ball, missing it but grabbing the WR’s arm as he attempts to bat it, 93% of a PBU.
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 39-14, 13 min 4th Q. Indiana goes on a 13 play drive with 8 minutes left that is not charted.

[snoring]

Get up!

Uh… what day is this?

Tuesday.

This is not the time when I am roused from my slumber.

Thank Tom Allen and his 13-play, 8 minute garbage time drive in which nothing worth noting happened, and the looming entity that is Thanksgiving. Also thank Don Brown for hammering the door shut after some early Indiana success. Drives:

  • five three-and-outs, one of which results in a QB fumble M recovers
  • two drives of 26 and 33 yards ending in an INT and punt, respectively
  • 71-yard drive ending on a turnover on downs at the M 4
  • 75 yard TD drive, 52 yard TD drive

That is pretty good against a team just outside of the SP+ top ten entering the game. The order of those drives made it feel worse until the middle of the third quarter.

It did feel bad. Please detail why the bad things happened.

Michigan's early issues were largely an inability to cope with Indiana's dink-o-rama offense. Their first three drives featured six successful dinks ranging from bubble screens to slants; it felt like Michigan was paying way too much respect to IU's ground game and their ability to go deep. This early bubble is an example of both. Hudson, playing over the relevant slot, keeps his nose in the run game a bit when it's 5 v 5, and since Metellus started at 12 yards and took two steps back on the snap he's not in position to do anything:

LB #7 to top, S #14 to top

IU's TE flare screen met near-identical issues from Michigan, with Hudson checking the potential run, preventing him from doing much except forcing it back to a safety who started at 15 yards deep:

LB #7 to top, S #30 to bottom

I don't know why Michigan put their safeties so deep for much of the game. Can't argue with the results too much, but it felt like a weird approach against a team that spends so much of its time chucking it short and couldn't protect its quarterback.

This culminated in a play with this presnap safety alignment:

image_thumb4

That's guys at 8, 15, and 13. Michigan sent the boundary corner on a blitz and slid Uche over the slot; Uche did all right but it's still four yards because he's got no support:

LB #6 to bottom

If Uche had torn after this he probably gets through the blocker and gets a tackle near the LOS so at least this is kind of a trap for the offense. The other ones remain a little odd.

That was about half of Indiana's early success.

And the other half?

A bust on a run and Indiana going at Dax Hill early. Hill comes in for a thorough discussion later. The bust was the weirdly open Scott run that set up Indiana's second touchdown. It came against the jetpack package on second and eight; this is either McGrone getting a stunt call that doesn't exist or Danna not getting that call. McGrone widens out super far:

DE #4 to bottom, LB #44 tucked inside of him

I gave that to Danna because I assume that stunting is going to be the default option when Michigan's in their pass rush set on a plausible run down, especially since a linebacker going head to head with a guard at the LOS is a bad bet.

Other issues included telegraphing coverage; the early slant against Dax Hill was off coverage, clearly man, with no linebacker support indicated presnap or provided post-snap, so Ramsey can confidently fire the ball in and it's asking a lot of Hill to do anything except tackle quickly:

S #30 over slot to top, also no LB level

It was in these ways that Indiana matriculated down the field twice in their first three drives.

And then Michigan shut it off?

Mostly, yes. After a six yard bubble with the same issues detailed above to start their second TD drive Indiana had just two more successful WR screens the rest of the game, both of which had mitigating circumstances.One was a play where Michigan had a trap on for it a screen but didn't execute it, probably because they got caught by tempo:

CB #24 to bottom

image_thumb10

Hill has popped off the WR but hasn't fired at the screen because M is still getting set. The second saw McGrone pick up a minus and probably could have been held down to a modest gain as well.

Once Michigan got serious about forcing Indiana to go downfield the Hoosier offense crawled in a hole and died, more or less immediately. Michigan turned up the heat with a single deep safety at ten yards and pure press on the outside on IU's second drive. Indiana immediately tried to take a deep shot and discovered their offensive line had no hope of blocking Michigan's pass rush:

IU did score on the drive after this but the bulk of that yardage came on the aforementioned stunt bust and rub wheel.

So… any holes poked for OSU?

Not really. Unlike last year, none of the stuff IU did seems like a recipe to obliterate Michigan. Obviously getting Hawkins back would be nice. But at no point did IU defend its QB like last year, when doubling Michigan's ends shut off the pass rush, or run a bunch of crossing routes that served as a platform for, uh, you know, that. IU's success here was sporadic, not systematic.

One thing Michigan's got goin for them is that their pass rush is vastly more diverse than last year. Even when Michigan's defensive ends had a slight off day you've got a lot of different guys chipping in rush. Chart: 

 

Defensive Line

Player + - T Notes
Paye 8 5 3 Fallible after all; had some edge rush though.
Dwumfour 7   7 Out of nowhere, in half the snaps.
Kemp 6.5 1 5.5 Helped force INT, interior runs didn't happen.
Hutchinson 9   9 No minus lifestyle
Danna 1 2 -1 Quiet day with one (probable) missed assignment
Uche 13.5 2 11.5 Sack-strip was capper on Wino-level day on per-snap basis.
Speight 1.5   1.5 #3 DT now?
Upshaw       DNC
Hinton   1 -1 Offsides once.
Vilain       DNC
TOTAL 46.5 11 +35.5 Raining rushers on anything that took more than 2 seconds.
Linebacker
Player + - T Notes
Hudson 3 4 -1 Too much respect for run game?
McGrone 3.5 4.5 -1 Did get dusted by Scott once.
Glasgow 4   4 Dodged a couple RB blocks on blitzes.
Gil       DNC
Anthony       DNP
Solomon       DNP
Barrett       DNC
TOTAL 10.5 8.5 +2 This O does as much as it can to make this level irrelevant.
Secondary
Player + - T Notes
Metellus 4   4 Corner PBU at end excellent.
Hawkins       DNP
Lavert Hill 3 4 -1 3/4 minuses for two of his penalties.
Thomas 5.5 0.5 5 Slashing edge tackle and a couple of nice cover instances.
Gray   3 -3 Delayed bubble bite.
Dax Hill 5 4 1 Not boring yet.
Reynolds       DNP
TOTAL 17.5 11.5 +6 Solid day but not dominant.
Metrics
Pressure 26 6 +20 Comeback improv route was a unicorn.
Coverage 21 12 +9 IU stresses this metric.
Tackling 1 4 -3 Couple of important early whiffs.
RPS 9 7 +2 Very good outside of bubbles.

Not quite the paving we've seen in a lot of other games but relative to expectations—IU entered the game with the #13 SP+ offense—it's a very good performance.

So about that diversity of pressure?

You've got Uche, of course. He had two massive plays in this game that ended drives. One of them was handed to him on a platter by the playcall:

standup DE #6 to bottom

I'm baffled why you'd ever run a jet sweep that leaves Uche unblocked as an edge defender. Meanwhile McGrone also widens out, taking a couple of steps to the jet that I don't think would have been any different if that was a fake, and a handoff easily converts. But Indiana has no read built into this—it's under center and the QB turns his back—so they're just running a thing and hoping it works.

This is more of an offense UFR thing but the offense is moving away from this approach and as the RPO game clicks it's no coincidence that the offense blows up.

Anyway. The second Uche thing was a strip-sack that was always coming:

DE #6 to top

In fact the very play before that Uche had just about hit Ramsey's arm after dipping inside on a ten yard hitch.

Uche also had some production on the ground. After IU's LT went out they put the fresh meat in at RT and ran that way, probably expecting that Uche would try to rush the passer. That's pretty much what they got but Uche was able to redirect and tackle anyway:

He's approaching a complete player, and the nature of his rush is such that I think he's got a shot to be very disruptive against anyone. This weekend is the test.

The other guys aren't on his level, though?

No, but neither are they last year's DTs, which provided exactly zero rush all year. Kemp returns and has improved from a non-entity to a guy who chips in, but the real win has been a ton of 3-3-5 and the all-DE formation I've called Jetpack. These formations have given Michigan framework in which their DEs can stunt while crushing the pocket, which will be crucial as Michigan tries to pressure Fields without giving up scrambles, and without using a spy.

Michigan did give up a scramble in this game. This is bad, but while watching this bad thing let's appreciate the fact that I can't remember the last time a QB was able to jet directly upfield like this:

It'll be important for Michigan to not allow this to happen against OSU's sturdier DL.

Meanwhile there are hints that the DEs might be able to get there on the edge from time to time. Against Indiana there were a few pure edge rushes that have not been a frequent feature of their game. A major degree of difficulty caveat is warranted, as IU's tackles seemed slow and off-balance, which is like ice cream being warm and made of asphalt. But anyway both Paye…

DE #19 to top

DE #19 to top

…and Hutchinson…

DE #97 to bottom

…got in some whoopin'. The constant threat of the DE diving inside, as Paye does on one of those embeds above, helps a fair bit since the first thing on any OTs mind has to be helping on a stunt before finding the looper, making it easier to get around the outside.

And hey, Dwumfour!

Dwumfour exists on the chart this week, albeit not as a rusher. He did his work on the ground, most notably on the fourth and one where he drew a holding.

DT #50 to left

In addition to that he was extremely productive as the anonymous DT who stuffs up a run play while someone else makes a tackle. Michigan did a lot of twisting with their DTs and he was able to use his explosion to pay that off by driving guys in to the backfield:

DT #50 to top

This was not a twist on which the element of surprise helps but just Dwumfour giving a guy the business:

DT #50 to bottom

Given previous outings I think this is more a blip than anything, especially since Indiana was largely content to single him up instead of thunk him inside on gap-blocked plays. I'd bet Michigan sees a lot of gap against OSU.

You said you'd have a Dax Hill section?

Indeed. Hill had the kind of game you'd expect from a super-talented freshman. IU's initial success on offense was a lot of screens and some chunks at Hill's expense. Their first play was a corner route from a bunch set on which Hill got a step behind and couldn't challenge:

S #30 to top

Serendipitously, Indiana's final charted play was also a corner route from a bunch set, but this one was against Josh Metellus, who played it better:

S #14 to top

Metellus is in a spot where he can grab the WR's arm and turn that into a near-impossible catch.

The other IU chunk at Hill's expense was the rub wheel route:

S #30 to bottom

And here too we have a look at what this is supposed to look like, because on Indiana's first drive they tried a wheel route to Scott. This time it was Lavert Hill on the edge, and he nerfed the route:

CB #24 to bottom

Michigan looks like they're intentionally running those CB/LBs through the picks even when they have a switch on in the hopes that the QB will take the bait. Hopefully they anticipate that OSU will try to exploit this tendency with pick routes that turn into delayed moves into newly open space and combat that before it costs Michigan chunk plays.

Hill offset much of this by digging out a difficult interception, and after those early events of note he receded into anonymous safety territory until late, when he had a couple of nice plays. Here he's able slalom through two attempted rubs and still get over the top of a wheel route:

S #30 over innermost WR to top

He even takes a false step early there. To be able to recover from that and smoothly redirect three times is the reason Hill is such a highly touted prospect. Not a lot of guys can get all the way over a wheel route when put in this situation. On the next play he got hit on a circle route; here you can see him overcommit to the outside but when the ball gets to the WR Hill is still there to hit immediately:

S #30 over slot

Clean up some technique, get a better command of the playbook, and Hill's going to start whacking guys on the catch instead of immediately after. He should slide into Metellus's spot seamlessly next year.

Ambry kilt two guys on one play?

Thomas continues his excellent season, turning in another edge thump:

CB #1 to the top

There were some perimeter yards to his side of the field but they were generally targeting just outside the slot—all the TE bubbles—and not the numbers, where he generally held his ground and forced it back. There was one incident on which he got bottled up about eight yards downfield, so he's no longer undefeated. Just close to it.

When the ball was in the air he wasn't challenged. I'm not sure if he actually gets a hand on this ball but that's not strictly required for a +2, which this is:

CB #1 to top

He's probably too skinny for the NFL. That's the ticket.

What's the deal with Jess Speight sticking ahead of guys like Hinton and Smith?

I don't think I'd say he's still ahead of Hinton, who's getting a smattering of real snaps. He was in the opener. Not now. Speight is apparently still in front of Smith and probably even Donovan Jeter, who got on the field after him in this game. Speight got a few snaps on the last drive I charted, getting a plus for holding up to a brief double and offering no gap:

DT #67 to bottom

Not bad. He hasn't jumped out as a potential Glasgow in the snaps I've watched. Even so it seems clear he'll be in the conversation for playing time next year.

Probably not much playing time if Carlo Kemp comes back for a fifth year, which should be both feasible and desirable. In that situation Michigan's entire DT depth chart returns and it might be hard for Speight to stay ahead of guys who are younger than him and likely have more athletic upside. Extra DT snaps will be available unless Michigan finds someone they can plug into the Uche role; Speight might be a part of the depth there.

Heroes?

The Uche/Dwumfour combo was Michigan's best player, so to speak. Hutchinson had another flawless day. Kemp did some work as well. Thomas and Metellus were excellent in the secondary.

Maybe not so heroic?

No one really but the LBs other than Glasgow had some hiccups.

What does it mean about the Game?

It'll go better than last year. Michigan is much more diverse in its coverage approaches; their rush is far less dependent on one guy getting through. They've pieced together a weird but highly effective defense and Brown has been stewing about last year forever. I think they're well equipped to combat the OSU offense…

Worried about Wisconsin. …unless Michigan gets hammered on the interior. OSU's OL is by far the best Michigan has seen since Wisconsin, which stomped M flat. The D has come a long way since then. Donovan Jeter picked up a +0 –7.5 in that game and has receded from view; Michigan used Glasgow as a weird DT for a portion of that game.

But Michigan did have some issues defending interior runs against Maryland even post-stabilization. It could be hairy if tight zone is grinding for 4 yards minimum.

Uche's got a shot to be Chase Young. He is just as dominant as a rusher. He could change the calculus of this game massively.

I'd prefer to see little of Gray. He's clearly a step or two behind Lavert Hill and Thomas and OSU is not a spot to rotate if it's not near-even, like it is at DE.

Yikes. Dios mio man.

Comments

Watching From Afar

November 26th, 2019 at 4:21 PM ^

Concern:

Watson, for all of his limitations, was still ahead of where Gray is now. I mean, he was a 5th year senior compared to a RS freshman (or true sophomore - whatever he is) so no shame in that. Against lesser competition Watson pasted guys. Gray has yet to really do that outside of the MTSU game and a smattering here and there. The scheme will have to cover for this year's DBs.

2018 Long >= 2019 Hill (still grabby and Long was the slightly better athlete)

2018 Hill ~ 2019 Thomas (though he keeps getting early-career Lewis'd)

2018 Watson >> 2019 Gray

I'm concerned that if the interior guys can't hold up and need LB and Safeties help to stop the run, leaving the DBs alone on islands things will go sideways quickly. Even if they don't have to commit LBs and Safeties to help and can leave some more bodies in coverage, I still feel... queasy.

MGoBlue96

November 26th, 2019 at 4:56 PM ^

The difference is not in personal this year it is in UM's ability to be more multi-dimensional and actually play zone. That bodes better for OSU than last year when they could only play man functionally and struggled when they tried to play zone. I don't think the gameplan is going to require DB's to be on islands nearly as much as last year. 

Teeba

November 26th, 2019 at 5:27 PM ^

2018 Watson is not 2019 Gray. Hill is the nickleback. Daxton is certainly faster than Watson, and the scheme promises to be completely different.

With Winovich and Gary screaming outside and up 10 yards downfield, and the DTs doing nothing, Haskins pocket was huge. The d-line has done a better job compressing the pocket this year while maintaining gap integrity. Will Fields be willing to run from the pocket given his questionable thumb?

I, too, think that we'll be able to hold OSU under 62 points this year.

We're 6th in DFEI to Penn State's 9th. They held OSU to 28 in the 'shoe. We get them at home after Dobbins carried 36 times.

Michigan 31 OSU 23. Same score as the Biakabutuka game. Only this year, it's a Nico/DPJ game, a passing Biakabutuka if you will.

Mr Miggle

November 26th, 2019 at 6:32 PM ^

The starting corners were fine last year. The problem I saw was that Watson was both the 3rd CB and the nickel and Kinnell was vulnerable in coverage. They had a lot of trouble covering the middle of the field. 

Gray normally rotates in as the 3rd CB, but Lavert and Ambry can stay out there instead if he struggles. Dax at the nickel provides the speed we lacked last season. Hawkins looks like an upgrade over Kinnell. 

As long as Hawkins is back we aren't going to be stuck in a situation like last year when there was nowhere else to go when Watson kept getting beat.

crg

November 26th, 2019 at 4:26 PM ^

Just remind these kids to have fun out there.  To hell with the media, the "narrative", fans, pressure, whatever.  Go out, hit someone, and smile - these rest will sort itself.

Booted Blue in PA

November 26th, 2019 at 4:28 PM ^

It would be a good thing if we were to start the game the way IU did.  Lets get some dinks and dunks moving the chains without Shea having to hang out in the pocket until young shows up.

 

mGrowOld

November 26th, 2019 at 4:35 PM ^

Well the tone of this UFR contrasts with the earlier round table discussion post that's for sure.  Reading this one might almost have.......dare I say it.....

Hope.

 

readyourguard

November 26th, 2019 at 4:44 PM ^

On the Scott run up the middle that set up IU's 2nd TD, I pegged Glasgow as the primary culprit (didn't get over to the playside A gap on a twist stunt) and McGrone (who got pushed out of the playside B gap.

 

BuckeyeChuck

November 26th, 2019 at 4:57 PM ^

Michigan's pressure on Fields (or, dare I say, Chugunov?) is probably the biggest factor of all the many important factors of the game. The one statistic that exposes a weakness of OSU's offense is sacks. Fields is vulnerable to them (hanging on to the ball too long, trying to make a play with his feet, etc.).

If Michigan's pass rush can get OSU behind the chains, potentially cause turnovers, perhaps even impact Fields' thumb injury (or create a new injury), it could be anybody's game.

If OSU is able to protect Fields, although M's defense will certainly have its fair share of good plays, the offense should do pretty well, and I will cackle with knowing glee.

jbrandimore

November 26th, 2019 at 6:08 PM ^

One flaw I have seen in Field's game that better teams might be able to exploit is he doesn't seem to have been coached to get rid of the ball and live to fight another play.

Because of his athleticism, I have seen him drift way way back and hold onto the ball a long time. This works for him against slower B1G teams. Might work against Michigan too, but in the CFP, it won't work against Clemson. 

Sometimes you do have to toss the ball up to the band and punt.

lhglrkwg

November 26th, 2019 at 6:44 PM ^

The d certainly seems better suited to deal with Ryan Day this year but I refuse to be truly optimistic until we actually beat them for once. I’ve only been a fan since 2006. I live in the BPONE

RJWolvie

November 26th, 2019 at 7:57 PM ^

Need Hawkins back way more than we think? Seems to me very possible the way-deep sets were because, past Lavert & Ambrey, there’s a whole lot of youth & inexperience in backfield (if also talent, thankfully!). Just keep it in front of you, especially since offense is clicking now 

RJWolvie

November 26th, 2019 at 8:49 PM ^

Mid 30s wintry mix forecast + M’s weakness up the middle = OSU game plan has to be: run Dobbins up middle until we prove we can stop it, if we do.

On flip side: OSU D also less strong up middle than edges and backfield, I think (?), so Harbaugh fits in run game like vs ND in monsoon may be our better bet as well?