just guys being dudes [Patrick Barron]

The Title Of The Game Column Is Also It's Over Because It's Over Comment Count

Brian November 18th, 2019 at 1:32 PM

11/16/2019 – Michigan 44, Michigan State 10 – 8-2, 5-2 Big Ten

This, finally, is what the program that used to proudly proclaim that they brought "60 minutes of unnecessary roughness" with them has been reduced to:

“I think it was a little bit of poor class on their part, poor sportsmanship to come over to our sideline barking how they were,” Michigan State linebacker Tyriq Thompson said. “It comes with the game, with the rivalry. It is what it is. Still, it’s just terrible taste.”

Whining about the Michigan sideline waving to them, and asserting an advantage in "class" immediately after a game in which one of their defensive linemen was ejected for head-hunting Shea Patterson. Last year that same guy tried to injure Michigan players, twice.

This site doesn't go in for "class." Class is a way to complain that you got your ass beat and someone enjoyed doing it to you. As Spencer Hall has asserted, great teams taunt. The least interesting question in football is whether team X ran up the score. I don't want to hear it if the answer is no. Twist the knife.

It's not like Michigan State can work harder to beat Michigan. There's nowhere else to go. So show them where things are at.

[After the JUMP: where it's at]

-----------------------------

This is where things are at: without one of the most unlikely endings in college football history Mark Dantonio would be 1-4 against Jim Harbaugh. The 1 is a four-point win over John O'Korn. The three Ls are all by two scores or, in this case, five. In the most competitive of them MSU gained 94 yards of offense.

Michigan State is headed for a bowl sponsored by a suburb of Chicago if they can beat Maryland and Rutgers. Next year they lose seven starters from their defense, which has already flagged badly as the talent starts to run out. Dantonio is about to be deposed in a lawsuit from Curtis Blackwell. The aftermath of Blackwell being made the fall guy has cratered MSU recruiting, which has zero top-15 players in Michigan and zero top-20 players in Ohio as they trundle towards a recruiting class currently ranked behind Minnesota, Kansas, Georgia Tech, and Iowa State. Cincinnati, Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, and Kentucky have higher-rated commits in MSU's home state than MSU does. Six guys have already hit the eject button and headed for the portal.

Faced with a disastrous offense last year, Dantonio went the Brady Hoke route, firing nobody but rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Faced with clear evidence his quarterback was concussed against Illinois, Dantonio again went the Brady Hoke route, asserting in a press conference that everything was fine and no check was needed to be made only for the school's medical staff to assert he was lying in a statement issued hours after his press conference.

Michigan State's athletic director is a vastly unqualified internal hire who owes his job in part to being Dantonio's buddy. Bill Beekman is not going to fire Dantonio. If Dantonio does decide to pack it in, good luck having that guy convince a coach to sign up for a job in the same division as stable, winning editions of OSU, Michigan, and PSU—especially after MSU's fanbase now expects 10 wins instead of 7.

This is as good as it's going to get for Michigan State in the near future.

-----------------------------

This is the way Mark Dantonio deserves to go out. Punt/Counterpunt summed up the real legacy of his tenure:

That’s how you build a cult of personality. You convince people that applause, criticism, and outright neglect are all signs that things are working. It’s how you can get a Glenn Winston, a Donnie Corley, a Josh King, and Demetric Vance, an Austin Robertson, a Curtis Blackwell, a Delton Williams, a Chris L Rucker, a Demetrius Cooper, an LJ Scott, a Demetrious Cox, a MacGarrett Kings, a Jon Reschke, a Max Bullough, and a Joe Bachie. It’s how you can let Will Gholston play after he practiced some MMA mid-game, let Will Gholston play after he was knocked unconscious, or let Brian Lewerke play after getting knocked half-unconscious, then make three contradictory statements about it.

Anything goes as long as you beat Michigan. Finally, this culture has caught up to Michigan State. Finally, the program that spawned the above paragraph is looking for its fainting couch because it has nothing else to do. It took way too long but, finally, it's over.

Fake tough guys always get exposed. 

AWARDS

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[Bryan Fuller]

Known Friends And Trusted Agents Of The Week

you're the man now, dog

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#1 Ronnie Bell. Nine catches, 150 yards, a fair number of those made by Bell himself after the catch. 42-yard slot fade was harder than it looked after the DB fell down; body control to catch that and keep his feet was excellent. Also a crucial part of Michigan's success attacking the perimeter as he absolutely leveled MSU DBs every time his blocking became relevant. On a per-involvement basis probably grades out higher than…

#2 Shea Patterson. But not by much. Patterson had a fair number of throws that weren't great and had his numbers boosted by a lot of screens and easy RPS YAC… and also put up 11.6 YPA. Also had a couple of successful runs.

#3 Lavert Hill. Doesn't get the credit he deserves most of the time because he's not on the screen. Hill's line: 1 assisted tackle, 1 PBU, one INT. He now has as many PBUs as unassisted tackles on the season. This is the first time he's broken out of HM territory. Is this because he stepped out of bounds after the INT so he could flex on Cody White? Maybe! But also he's further down the list below than he should be because of the nature of the position.

Honorable mention: DPJ turned nothing into a TD and almost a second; we'll call the punt return and ensuing fumble even. Nico Collins drew yet another redzone PI and scored a touchdown of his own. Mike Danna had another sack in a strong outing. Carlo Kemp forced the lone ground TFL and added a sack and a half. Josh Uche didn't get the stats but added five pressures per PFF. Khaleke Hudson blocked a punt and legally annihilated an MSU WR.

KFaTAotW Standings

NOTE: New scoring! HM: 1 point. #3: 3 points. #2: 5 points. #1: 8 points. Split winners awarded points at the sole discretion of a pygmy marmoset named Luke.

18: Josh Uche (#3 MTSU, #3 Army, T2 Rutgers, #2 Illinois, HM ND, T1 Maryland, HM MSU)
17: Aidan Hutchinson(#1 Army, HM Rutgers, T1 Iowa, HM Illinois, HM ND, T1 Maryland)
15: Shea Patterson(HM MTSU, #1 Rutgers. HM PSU, #2 MSU)
14: Whole Dang OL(#2 PSU, #1 ND, HM Maryland).
13: Zach Charbonnet (#2 MTSU, #2 Army, HM PSU, HM ND, HM Maryland), Nico Collins (HM Rutgers, HM Iowa, #1 PSU, #3 Maryland HM MSU)
12: Cam McGrone(HM Rutgers, T3 Iowa, HM Illinois, #3 PSU, #2 ND), Jordan Glasgow (HM MTSU, T3 Iowa, #1 Illinois, HM Maryland), Ronnie Bell (HM Army, T3 Rutgers, HM Illinois, #1 MSU)
10:  Ambry Thomas (#1 MTSU, HM Rutgers, HM Illinois), Kwity Paye (T2 Rutgers, T1 Iowa, HM PSU, T1 Maryland)
9: Khaleke Hudson (#2 Iowa, HM Illinois, HM ND, HM Maryland, HM MSU)
7: Josh Metellus (HM Army, HM Iowa, #2 Maryland), Hassan Haskins (#3 Illinois, #3 ND, HM Maryland)
6: Lavert Hill (HM Army, HM Iowa, HM ND, #3 MSU)
3: DPJ (T3 Rutgers, HM MSU), Mike Danna (T1 Maryland, HM MSU)
2: Dax Hill(HM Rutgers, HM Iowa), Tru Wilson (HM ND, HM Maryland), Will Hart (HM MTSU, HM Maryland), Carlo Kemp(HM MSU)
1:  Josh Ross (HM, MTSU), Sean McKeon (HM, MTSU),Brad Hawkins (HM Army), Christian Turner (HM Rutgers), Nick Eubanks (HM Illinois), Brad Hawkins (HM ND), Giles Jackson (HM Maryland), Michael Barrett (HM Maryland).

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Michigan induces a false start, blocks a punt, and immediately hits Nico Collins to go up 34-10 and effectively end the game.

 

Honorable mention: Cornelius Johnson provides the exclamation point; Lewerke flutters two INTs into Michigan CBs' arms; DPJ scores a touchdown out of a bunch of nothing; Paul Bunyan wears pants.

X4OROG3KOKTIFUY4YU4SNSLDIY_thumb_thu[2]MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Lewerke nails an RPO that puts MSU on the one-inch line; MSU scores on the next play and for a queasy second doubt plagues your mind.

Honorable mention: Michigan's second drive ends with a blatant uncalled PI; Jacub Panasuik cheapshots Patterson; Jim Harbaugh's post-game press conference is not a vicious wrestling promo aimed at Mark Dantonio in an attempt to goad him into staying.

OFFENSE

It turns out they were indeed close. Jim Harbaugh after Penn State:

"I feel like we're very close offensively and very close to hitting our stride, hitting on all cylinders," he said. "Really good evidence to back that up and also what I see."

This was widely derided. Since they've put up 45, 38, and 44 against ND, Maryland, and MSU. I did not specifically deride this quote but I did roll my eyes at it, so here's the mea culpa: I pulled the trigger on BPONE too fast this year and particularly with Patterson and Gattis.

Hit 'em where they ain't. I can't tell you how many times this hasn't happened. Michigan has gone into a lot of games in which it seems like the right approach is to gesture vaguely at the run game and rely on passing. Outside of the occasional Ohio State game, when the gloves are always off, I'm not sure there's been another outing where they've followed through so emphatically.

I'll get exact numbers later in the week but some box-score approximates follow. Delete 10 Tru Wilson carries, almost all of which happened after the game was decided, and the goal-to-go-inside-the-five carries that Haskins had from the wildcat. If you disregard those Michigan had 16 rushes and 37 dropbacks* as they shredded the #11 SP+ defense. A defense that had been shredded by Ohio State and Wisconsin previously, yes, but now we get to talk about the Michigan offense in the same sentence as those two offenses.

Importantly for the future of the offense, this felt like Josh Gattis's thing much more than the Notre Dame game. The ND game was a lot of stuff that we'd seen last year with the occasional Speed In Space cameo. This was about 90% the latter, starting from the opening snap when they attempted to go deep, got sacked, and kept on throwing. MSU's defense dares you do to this; Michigan did it.

*[some of those happened in Tru Wilson time but also there were some short yardage carries, etc. I'll get the full picture in UFR]

The easiest example of the above. Michigan hit Ronnie Bell on ~3 RPO hitches where he was the innermost receiver on the trips side. When the linebacker level ran at the line of scrimmage there was no one within five yards of Bell on those catches, so he got to ramble upfield for first downs.

Earlier in the year I'd complained that Michigan was running the same RPO slant that was all the rage three years go and that opponents had learned to defend that fairly well. This was the opposite, a dead-easy throw that was going to be a successful play.

Also in this bin were Michigan's various flare screens, which both gained chunks of yards and moved MSU's eyes. Immediately after one of these flare screens Michigan got an eight yard run in part because one of the MSU LBs was looking at the edge of the field until the RB crossed the line of scrimmage. This is likely to be an RPS beatdown.

And introducing: wide receiver blocking. Michigan's WRs were called into a ton of blocking action because of the edge stuff. In addition to the obvious flare screens Michigan ran a speed option on which the pitch was made, got Giles Jackson two edge carries, and had a flat route to McKeon that was also a screen, with the WRs blocking downfield.

Bell and Collins stood out; Collins would get a stalk-block on his DB about 10 yards downfield and that guy went backwards and never got off his block. (I should mention here that I've been told that the bubble against PSU where Collins ran a slant was not a Collins issue—that was the playcall.) Bell executed about five cut blocks where he tossed his waist into the body of MSU DBs and ended them. One DB was able to get up and make a tackle on Jackson; the other guys stayed down and Michigan got chunks.

One of these Bell blocks got flagged for reasons that are mysterious on first viewing, because it looked identical to the other cut blocks. I know the cut block section of the rulebook is riddled with subclauses and it's possible Bell may have violated one of the many and arcane rules therein. I'm at a loss as to which one it was.

While we're on Bell. As I said above, that slot fade catch was fairly impressive:

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[Barron]

It could have been worse. Patterson's first half was a little wobbly, which resulted in a couple of throws where he took guys off their feet when they were about to run for 30 yards after the catch. The seam throw to McKeon was similar, although it's a lot more understandable to take a guy off their feet when it's 30 yards downfield. The slant to Black in the endzone was also well behind him.

Otherwise Patterson was excellent. Michigan got stuck in third and 14 early, called a route combo on which MSU had everything covered, and then Patterson slid out of the pocket to give Ronnie Bell time to get to a pocket of space on the sideline. He was able to break the pocket and make a few other plays happen, and his errors were limited to marginal balls. There weren't a lot of uncatchable ones, and there weren't any big errors except the sack immediately before the long field goal were he tripped.

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Literally didn't lay a finger on him [Fuller]

Even the bad stuff worked. Patterson checked it down to Peoples-Jones at the line of scrimmage twice. Neither of these plays were screens; they were just checkdowns on which DPJ got unblocked defenders almost immediately. He was a few inches away from turning those two opportunities into 60 yards and two touchdowns. Instead he had to settle for just the one.

This was oddly reminiscent of DPJ's punt return style, which is to look like he's not really doing much and then just outrun people without changing direction. Turns out he's fast.

Hello again Tarik Black. In the event Michigan loses Collins and DPJ to the NFL a lot is going to be on Tarik Black's plate next year, so it was nice to see him sky for a deep ball like he did very early in his career. He hasn't made a lot of downfield contested catches since.

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[Fuller]

Haskins-cat: approve. After a wildcat run last week when Patterson motioned out of the backfield Michigan went with a straight-up wildcat this week with Haskins and Mason in the backfield. This scored from the two in two plays the first time out; the second time Haskins got stopped at the LOS but momentarily broke a tackle and was then ruled down at the five. Patterson came in and Eubanks scored on the next play.

I don't mind wildcat snaps in short yardage situations, especially near the goal line. Telling the opposition you're running when they already expect you to run isn't much of a negative compared to buying back a blocker.

Vastardis a contender? When Ruiz went out for the back half of a drive, walk-on Andrew Vastardis came in. Vastardis has been the second-string center since Stueber's injury flipped Hongiford out to tackle and Spanellis moved to guard, so I imagine Michigan just wanted the guy who'd been snapping for the last three months to spot Ruiz. I wonder if that would still be the case if Ruiz was out for more than a few snaps.

Vastardis did have a low snap to Haskins but other than that he looked fine. Nice to have another option for next year, when at least three starting spots on the OL will be up for grabs.

DEFENSE

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[Barron]

Early thing, adjustment, over. Michigan met substandard opposition and whooped it, so there's not as much to say. This happens a lot.

The most interesting subplot of the day was the existence of an MSU Fall Camp Drive, albeit delivered in a different way. Usually these are obvious because they're end-arounds with a lead blocker and whatnot, but here the early success MSU had from their bunch sets was more of a football coach thing not immediately apparent to the layman. James Light:

MSU was able to work Michigan's expected coverages for a couple of third down conversions; they got the RPO not-quite-TD, and then as soon as Light noticed what was going on so did Don Brown and MSU's offense went in a hole.

Four! Four. Four. Elijah Collins's long run: four yards. Four! Michigan doesn't have the DTs to grab a bunch of TFLs even against a shaky OL but at no point did MSU have a successful run from Collins.

They did have a couple from Lewerke. I was surprised live that MSU wasn't running him more but after the dust cleared he did have 10 non-sack carries that went for a total of 30 yards. So that didn't work either.

MOVE. Michigan's MOVE call started off the satisfying false start/blocked punt/Collins touchdown sequence. Michigan DTs suddenly shifted right and an MSU guard came out of his stance. Couldn't hear Brown bellowing MOVE on the tape this time, unfortunately.

Still trying mesh. I missed Michigan's first sack of the afternoon because I was watching the coverage. MSU ran mesh, I momentarily thought "oh no," and then I saw Brad Hawkins sliding down to cover what was probably Lewerke's first or second read. He held the ball and ate a sack. That is strange. You'd think that if any opponent would be current on Michigan's vulnerability, or lack thereof, to crossing routes it would be MSU.

SPECIAL TEAMS

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lunch [Barron]

Only Marquise Walker can argue. Khaleke Hudson is probably the best punt-block specialist Michigan has ever had. This is related to his pass rush ability, where he's able to redirect and keep a lot of his momentum. On the one he returned to sender he zipped around the punt protector like he was not there.

I wonder if Michigan's punt block ability will continue after he's gone. It will at least in part—Michigan has had a couple other guys block punts over the last few years. But if Hudson is uniquely well suited to taking out spread punts there will be a step back.

Field goals. They were made, all by Quinn Nordin. I suggest they keep making them.

Uh… there was a punt. One punt. Against MSU.

Mild kickoff adventures. Jackson failed to field one kickoff that didn't get very far, had one return to about the 35, and almost touched the kick out of bounds. David theorized that the sun may have played a factor on the first. Meanwhile Michigan put all of theirs in the endzone except one pop-up the upback fielded. I prefer to get touchbacks whenever you can because against a poor opponent they're just extra bits of variance without a lot of upside.

MISCELLANOUS

Is this the ghost of a koala that was axe-murdered? You be the judge.

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[Barron]

Yes, go for it on the plus 40. We're not really talking about this. Not much else in game theory territory except I wasn't a big fan of Michigan's approach after they got down to the red zone just before the half. Going run-run to burn clock probably wasn't worth the decrease in expected points given the state of the MSU offense, and MSU promptly demonstrated why Michigan's gameplan was to avoid running up the middle.

Targeting roulette is also over. Probably? After years in which I feel utterly at sea whenever a targeting penalty is assessed or reviewed, I finally think I have a handle on it, and so do the people applying the rule. Did you strike someone with the crown of your helmet? You're gone. Did you hit a defenseless player (ie, a QB or WR immediately after a catch) in the head? You're gone. Otherwise… eh, probably all right.

I think it finally seems like targeting is usually going to be called right. Khaleke Hudson annihilated a WR over the middle; everyone braced for a flag; none came out, and that was correct. Kwity Paye was under threat after a borderline PF, and the replay booth correctly found that he'd hit the shoulder only. I've seen targeting called when guys put the crown into an opponent and targeting waved off when they put their facemask on the opponent.

Things aren't perfect. That Army targeting call when Turner got knocked off his feet and a second guy got ejected was pretty bad, but at least that felt like a rule applied in a situation it shouldn't be instead of something totally random. It still feels like CFB has finally arrived at a spot where most of the targeting calls are predictable and correct. Not all, but most.

Personal foul roulette, however. This game has turned into one of college football's most consistent ref shows. There's some justification for that, but a brief survey of the personal fouls shows a poor strike rate:

  • MSU gets flagged for a late hit on DPJ; the hit comes before Peoples-Jones is actually out of bounds.
  • Aidan Hutchinson is flagged for mutual shoving.
  • Luke Campbell is flagged for something that happens off screen and does not get a replay, because the replay is used for a taunting call on Cody White. White does loom over Hudson in a confrontational fashion and this one is probably correct.
  • Tarik Black gets flagged for a flex after his catch down the sidelines. This was ridiculous but did result in a spectacular reaction gif.
  • MSU gets a PF for shoving Hudson in the bench area.
  • Panasuik #1 gets a no-doubter and is ejected.
  • Panasuik #2 gets flagged after his helmet comes off; he argues with the referee about a penalty for a while and then gets flagged for saying something to the referee.

The hit rate on non-obvious calls there is pretty bad.

HERE

Best and Worst:

Best: Hudson Hawk

Khaleke Hudson had an underwhelming junior year, in some part due to shifts in duties that required him to play more like a traditional linebacker (e.g. trying to hold up against Wisconsin's ground game or trying to cover WRs) and less like his natural Viper position. He wasn't bad or anything, but after a record-setting sophomore campaign 2018 was a step back.

But in one of the more pleasant surprises of the season for the defense, Hudson has largely returned to his previous destructive self, even if the counting stats aren't quite there. Yes, he's still not great when asked to be your classic linebacker and can get a bit lost in coverage, but as a guy who can attack from the edge and keep runs tamped down, he's been great. And his blocked punt in this game (the 5th of his career), effectively ended the competitive part of the game for MSU; the doors sorta blew off when Michigan scored on the subsequent play. His presence will be missed next season, even if there are a number of viable options to fill the gap.

ELSEWHERE

Tom Van Haaren:

ANN ARBOR, Mich. -- Michigan safety Josh Metellus was waving goodbye to Michigan State players after the Wolverines' 44-10 victory over the Spartans on Saturday. Metellus and his teammates took exception to the chippiness during the game and thought it was time for the Spartans to leave.

"I was telling them to go home," Metellus said. "It was time for them to leave and they didn't deserve to be in our stadium. I was trying to wave them goodbye because some of them wanted to stay on the field and it was our time to shine. We came out with the 'W' so we were just telling them to go home."

Baumgardner:

“Josh Gattis and the offensive staff really had this game plan wired,” Harbaugh said afterward. “They’d predicted what some of the adjustments were going to be in this game.

“And just about every one of them was right.”

All of this against Dantonio, who spent the better part of eight years giving Michigan absolute fits with his ability to call defense, turn under-recruited players into standouts and get everything to work exactly right against the Wolverines. Five years ago, Michigan limped out of East Lansing after Dantonio punched in an extra rushing touchdown, payback for the Wolverines shoving a tent stake into the Spartan Stadium grass. On that night, Oct. 25, 2014, MSU owned this rivalry. In every area.

That’s over.

This wasn’t John L. Smith bad. This was worse. Michigan State hasn’t taken a beating like this against Michigan since 2002, Bobby Williams’ last act in the rivalry. The game where MSU’s soon-to-be fired coach was asked whether he’d lost his team, and replied: “I don’t know.”

Orion Sang:

Shea Patterson said something that was startlingly accurate after Michigan football's 44-10 win over Michigan State on Saturday afternoon.

"Usually it’s kind of the other way around," he said. "Usually the defense is the one to thank and everything."

Ronnie Bell has everything but a touchdown. Maize and Blue Nation. MGoFish. Sap's Decals. Hoover Street Rag. Touch the Banner.

Comments

saveferris

November 18th, 2019 at 3:55 PM ^

To be honest, what you're seeing now is the standard MSU fan attitude when it comes to their football program.  A Michigan Stadium pretty much devoid of Spartan fans for the Michigan/MSU game was pretty much part for the course in the 80s and 90s.  For all their bluster the past 10 years about Walmart Wolverines and the suggestion that we're bandwagon hoppers and shirt-tail fans, before Dantonio MSU fans were the most aggravating because they'd act pretty aloof about football, knowing they wouldn't win but one game every 3 or 4 years and then become insufferable when they pulled off an upset.

Spartans, historically, are the biggest bandwagon fans because they don't have a lot to root for.  They're just returning to that paradigm.

rice4114

November 19th, 2019 at 12:02 AM ^

About 12 years ago was in my Auburn Hills restaurant for the first half the teams were neck and neck. The entire restaurant was pretty much silent for 3 quarters. I thought to myself must not be a football crowd today. Then in the late stages MSU started to pull away and all of a sudden you wouldve thought a 100 people just won the lottery. It was like Spartan stadium emptied into my restaurant. They had all been there for most the game but holy shit they now were all MSU fans. Thats when I really started hating MSU. You dont have to wait for a game to be decided to know im a UM fan. Keep on crushing them!

EastCoast_Wolv…

November 18th, 2019 at 3:47 PM ^

Add to all of that the fact that MSU's non-conference schedule is actually pretty hard for a middle of the road Power 5 team, and it's hard to see them winning more than 7 games a year for the next 4-6 years. They've got BYU on the road, home-and-homes against Miami (YTM), Boise State, and Boston College, plus home games against WKU and WMU.

It really wouldn't be surprising to see them go .500 or worse the next 3 years:

2020: Miami (YTM), @ Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Minnesota, @ Penn State (plus lose-able games @ BYU and @ Indiana)

2021: @ Miami (YTM), @ Michigan, Penn State, @ Ohio State (plus lose-able vs. Nebraska, WKU, @ Purdue, and vs. Indiana)

2022: @ Boise State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, @ Penn State, Minnesota (plus lose-able games vs. WMU and @ Indiana)

 

 

saveferris

November 18th, 2019 at 4:03 PM ^

Spartan fans now expect the success of 2011-2015 when history of their program and the current landscape of the Big Ten East suggest otherwise.

Fact:  Michigan State as a football program has never been consistently competitive for a long duration when the Michigan program is operating to form.  Reasons are myriad, but the biggest one is that there just isn't enough talent in the area to go around and Michigan picks up most of it when it's operating like Michigan.  That's not a recipe for long-term success.  It's why Nick Saban jumped ship the second a better opportunity came along, because for all his ability, he couldn't compete in the Michigan / Michigan State arms race when Michigan was being effectively managed. 

Spartan fans better settle in for a lot of disappointment over the next 10-15 years because not only is Michigan operating like Michigan, we're paying attention to this rivalry.  Players like Kirk Cousins and Javon Ringer claim this a good thing.  I don't think future MSU teams are going to appreciate what this dynamic is going to look like.

ca_prophet

November 18th, 2019 at 4:08 PM ^

This is true of any fanbase though.  I mean, “OSU fans expect the success of the Meyer years even though replacing an all time great coach and the state of the B1G East suggests otherwise” could be a thing in a year.

And, sadly, “Michigan fans expect the success of the Bo years even though OSU being at its program peak and the nature of the B1G East suggests otherwise” is also a thing.

 

Leaders And Best

November 18th, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^

Why would PJ Fleck take that job? Minnesota can match the money. It is easier to win from the Big Ten West. Minnesota is the only FBS program in the state and have recruiting advantages there like Wisconsin where many prospects fly under the radar that they can keep home. MSU is surrounded on all sides by predators (Michigan, ND, and OSU) for recruiting. You get to live in Minneapolis, not East Lansing. Minnesota's expectations are lower, and you don't have to deal with the unrealistic fan expectations of following Dantonio. And why risk rebuilding another Big Ten program when you have already successfully got one off the ground? Even good coaches can fail at attempting that through misfortune and poor timing.

If I were PJ Fleck, I would only leave Minnesota for a top-10 traditional college football job or the NFL. The only rumor I have heard is that his ex-wife and kids live in Michigan, but I am not sure if that is true or even a serious consideration for him.

saveferris

November 18th, 2019 at 3:30 PM ^

Michigan State is not a step up from Minnesota.  It's nothing more than a lateral move to a program that is in much worse shape than what he has now.  I suppose MSU could roll up the Brinks truck and lure him away with a big payday, but he's got a good thing going in Minneapolis and if he aspires to a bigger stage, he can afford to wait it out until that opportunity comes along.

Big Brown Jug

November 18th, 2019 at 3:46 PM ^

Strange thing about Minnesota sports expectations: they turn on a dime. After one competitive loss, on the road, to a good Iowa team, following nine straight wins in which they were significant underdogs in at least two, there is already an opinion piece in the local paper about how the next two games will define the season:

 

http://www.startribune.com/gophers-football-team-finds-itself-at-fork-i…

 

I think part of it is watching Wisconsin's success over the last two decades and believing there's no structural difference between them and Minnesota that should prevent the Gophers from getting there too.  Whatever the reason, this program fired their next best coach since the 1960s in Glen Mason for losing one bowl game badly, and they will absolutely turn on Fleck if he doesn't perform at this level consistently.

Tuebor

November 18th, 2019 at 2:18 PM ^

I gotta think Minnesota year 4 is going to be more attractive to him than MSU year 1. Especially with what Dantonio would leave him.  Tanner Morgan has 2 years of eligibility left.  

 

Playing against Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska is more favorable than playing against OSU, PSU, and Michigan.  

 

I'd be shocked if Fleck left Minnesota for MSU.  

stephenrjking

November 18th, 2019 at 2:39 PM ^

Agree with the others, I don't see PJ going to MSU.

I disagree with some of the reasoning: Minnesota football is not a better job than MSU, and recruiting is very difficult there.

But the division is much easier, and Fleck is a viable candidate for any number of top P5 jobs that may pop open in a year or two. If he were to leave this year (unlikely, I think, with the new $10 million buyout that seems designed to keep him for a "year or two") a place like Florida State, or perhaps USC if Urban doesn't go there, would be a better option. In a year or two there could be openings at places like Notre Dame, Auburn, Texas, or Texas A&M that could be interested in him. 

Highly doubt that Fleck will ever seriously consider MSU. 

ESNY

November 18th, 2019 at 2:46 PM ^

Its not that Minny is better than MSU, per se, it is that MSU is not clearly a better destination plus has fundamental problems to boot. 

A successful coach does not make a lateral move, at best, unless there are extenuating circumstances (disagreement between coach and AD, etc.).  PJ Fleck, still fairly new to Minnesota and having a cinderella type season isn't going to a comparable place to rebuild it.  

I'd have to imagine the only successful P5 head coach that would consider the lateral move would be Narduzzi due to his history there.  and even that may not be a great move for MS as some of the luster has worn off him with his insane coaching decisions and unintelligible responses when questioned about those decisions,

Leaders And Best

November 18th, 2019 at 2:52 PM ^

Minnesota has a new on-campus football stadium and brand new football facilities. I don't follow how recruiting to Minnesota is harder than recruiting to MSU. MSU is closer to Ohio, Chicago, & PA, but Minnesota is located in a major city with an international airport a 15 minute drive away.

I don't see a significant difference between the two jobs, and personally, I would prefer the Minnesota job because of the Big Ten West setup and being the only FBS school in-state.

stephenrjking

November 18th, 2019 at 3:15 PM ^

(MSP is rarely, if ever, 15 minutes from the campus of the University of Minnesota, but that's an irrelevant detail).

Minnesota has been a bottom-third program in the B1G for decades. It is theoretically possible that someone can leverage the advantages of being in a big city to draw recruits, but in college football that is extremely rare, the only cities having been so utilized being Miami and Los Angeles. Whatever positives may exist from being in Minneapolis are counterbalanced by negatives like weather, which is considerably harsher in Minnesota than in other Big Ten locations. 

Recruiting is tougher in general because there is no natural talent base. MSU isn't the first choice in its own state, and has to compete with a number of programs in Ohio, but Minnesota has no natural talent base to draw from at all. Even if MSU can only get two or three of the top ten kids in Michigan every year, those are still two or three kids that are likely better than anyone produced in the state of Minnesota. 

The new facilities are nice and bring Minnesota to near-parity with other midrange schools. The division issue is extremely real--while Wisconsin and Iowa continue to be the power programs in the division, they do not bring in top ten classes, and the right coach at a program like Minnesota can compete with them if they scout and develop and build a program and a system the way Wisco and Iowa have.  

But Minnesota just isn't on the same level of program as MSU. MSU is at a low point, and Minnesota is at a high point for this season, but let's not get carried away. 

That doesn't mean that MSU is enough of a step up to tempt Fleck. It would be a better program, but the margins are much smaller. We're basically talking about mid-pack B1G programs right now, as long as Fleck has Minnesota at a good level. No reason to shuffle between them. Fleck would be wise to hold out for a job that is a massive step up. They will be available in a year or two or three. 

 

Hail-Storm

November 18th, 2019 at 5:18 PM ^

This is year 5 of Harbaugh and he will yet again miss the BIG Championship game.  The BIG East is extremely difficult to win.  MSU has not consistently gotten 2 top guys in state, as others mentioned, they compete against UofM, OSU, ND, and the rest of the conference for those players. 

Northwestern won the BIG west last year.  As other's have mentioned, unless there is a personal reason to be in Michigan or at a school (like Howard and Harbaugh coaching where they played and coming home) the arguments for moving seem like they just don't make sense.

TrueBlue2003

November 18th, 2019 at 5:38 PM ^

"There is no natural talent base" is something you could say about Wisconsin and Iowa, too though, and Iowa has to compete with another P5 program in-state.

The state of Minnesota boasts nine top 1000 players in the 2020 class per 247.  The state of Wisconsin? Six top 1000 players in the 2020 class (and only THREE in 2019).  Iowa has eight in 2020 and only six in 2019 without a top 200 in either year.

There really is no reason structurally that Minnesota can't replicate what Wisconsin or Iowa does (which is mostly turning a bunch of sub-1000 recruits into very good linemen after 3-5 years of beefing up and being technically very sound).  Wisconsin was also a bottom third or worse program forever until Barry Alvarez figured out this simple formula. Minnesota just needs a program builder like Alvarez was for Wisconsin and Hayden Fry was for Iowa (and Bo was for Michigan).  Maybe PJ Fleck is that guy but I doubt he stays long enough to change the culture and financial support.

Also, MSU is not at all at a low point.  This is mostly the norm for MSU historically.  They're going to make a bowl game.  They were simply at a high point from 2009-2016ish, a period matched only by Duffy Dougherty's 60s teams.

George Perles had a 500 record.  Bobby Williams? sub-500.  John L? sub-500. Even Nick Saban futzed around 500 until his final season which was his only season with more than 7 wins.

The MSU program is at its historical level right now (and will likely be worse for the next couple years if that's what you mean by low point).

yossarians tree

November 18th, 2019 at 2:53 PM ^

It's going to be very amusing to see the incredulity in their fanbase when some of these hot new coaches like Fleck spurn their advances. These people are seriously delusional and can't see what others see. They play in a  brutal division and they are going to be broke as hell for a long time after Nassar. This counts in attracting good assistants, not to mention all the analysts, training staff, etc. that the big boys all have now. They could rarely fill their little stadium even during Dantonio's era which is the best they've ever seen. 

I would almost feel sorry for them, but I saw the Schadenfreude post on this blog a couple days ago (if you haven't seen it, it is unbelievable) and now I am going to just enjoy it. These people are delusional, twisted, and sick--multiple calls for Michigan players to be concussed or have their ACLs torn up. Suck it, Sparty. The karma is callin'.

saveferris

November 18th, 2019 at 3:37 PM ^

Recruiting is just as difficult at MSU when you have a fully weaponized Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Notre Dame to compete with.  I can't see any reason why Fleck would consider the Spartan job.  Besides, I'm not in any way convinced that Dantonio is going to step down, which is good because I will enjoy continuing to see him humbled for seasons to come.

Alumnus93

November 18th, 2019 at 3:52 PM ^

Zero chance Fleck goes to MSU... None... Minnesota has a great fanbase, yet theyve never won... Minneapolis is a great place to live, too.... hes a KING there...

now.... who you should WORRY about, is Jim Tressel... thats the only thing...if they hire him, it'll be a problem....  his player analyis skills are exceptional, and he is well connected everywhere in Ohio, and he is the first culprit in our slide.... he shut out the state, which was our lifeblood for the Ohio recruits, who wanted nothing more to beat OSU, and thus also end up with the Big Ten title.

Blue2000

November 18th, 2019 at 1:58 PM ^

This is where things are at: without one of the most unlikely endings in college football history Mark Dantonio would be 1-4 against Jim Harbaugh.

"One of the most unlikely endings?"  You're being too kind.  That was the single flukiest play in college football history.  

evenyoubrutus

November 18th, 2019 at 1:59 PM ^

It's absurd how many times MSU has beaten us thanks to blind luck that really had more to do with officials or Michigan screwing up than them actually doing something.

Four times I can think of in my lifetime: the 1990 Eddie Brown/Desmond Howard PI game, 2001 Spartan Bob, 2015, 2017. But Dantonio ran up a good record against Hoke and Rodriguez, so there's that.

stephenrjking

November 18th, 2019 at 2:48 PM ^

2017 was certainly lucky for MSU, but I think it needs to be in a separate category from the other three. The 90, 01, and 15 games were really unique in the way a single event changed the game in their favor. 2017 did provide them with fortune in the weather, but they also jumped out to a lead when the weather was good while Michigan mucked around doing nothing, before forcing John O'Korn to try to make plays he was incapable of making. Not the same thing, IMHO.

saveferris

November 18th, 2019 at 3:43 PM ^

2017 did provide them with fortune in the weather, but they also jumped out to a lead when the weather was good while Michigan mucked around doing nothing, before forcing John O'Korn to try to make plays he was incapable of making. Not the same thing, IMHO.

We helped them get that lead by coughing the ball up at midfield in the first quarter.  We were on a pretty good drive when Ty Isaac coughed up the football near midfield, which lead to their first touchdown.  Isaac holds onto that ball and we probably wind up 10-0 instead of trailing 3-7.  My point being that Dantonio's gameplan in 2017 wasn't anything earth shattering; we just kept shooting ourselves in the foot and he just kept running into a stacked line and hoping we didn't come up with a big play.  That's not coaching innovation.

WolverineHistorian

November 18th, 2019 at 3:21 PM ^

The screw job in 1995 doesn't get brought up as much as 1990 and 2001.

End of the 4th quarter, Michigan leads 25-21.  MSU has one last chance to put a drive together or it's game over.  They're faced with a 4th down and 7 around mid-field but are stopped a yard and a half short.  Instead of changing possession so Michigan can take a victory formation, the ref moves the ball 1 1/2 yards up to give MSU the first down with no explanation.  A few plays later, Charles Woosdon had the game winning interception in his hands....and then dropped it.  MSU scored a TD a couple plays later to win 28-25.  

Woodson blamed himself for the loss but we never got an explanation as to why being stopped a yard and half short = first down.  

B-Nut-GoBlue

November 18th, 2019 at 4:05 PM ^

Wow this play is all sorts of goofy.  It was 4th and 11 from their own 31 yet they needed to get to the 44.  Well that's 4th and 13 then.  The chain and the orange marker that lays on the field were a yard apart as well.  And he appeared to make the catch a ~half yard short yet the chain measurement gave a first down.  You're right, that ending was ludicrous.

Wolverine 73

November 18th, 2019 at 2:02 PM ^

So it is OK to strike the Paul Bunyan pose after a score or catch or whatever, but it is not OK to flex.  Considering how similar the poses look, that’s a pretty fine distinction we have there.