[Patrick Barron]

Cosmic Rays Comment Count

Brian January 3rd, 2023 at 1:39 PM

12/31/2022 – Michigan 45, TCU 51 – 13-1, Big Ten Champs, season over

At times like these I am drawn, ineluctably, to boxing metaphors. I had one all ready to go in my mind but there was something that bothered me about it, and yup: the last time this happened, more or less, was that Elite Eight game against Kentucky. And your author did the thing:

The boxing metaphor is inescapable. I have seen many basketball games; this one is the one that defies you to compare it to anything else. And it was specific: this was not the kind of boxing match where a Cuban with ten thousand amateur fights comes out and touches you up for twelve rounds until he's ahead on all the scorecards. This was two dudes with noses that might as well already be broken strolling out and windmilling at each other until one looks like Chernobyl… and he's the guy still standing.

At least I am not alone in resorting to this trope. I saw a Hagler-Hearns reference in my Twitter timeline during the game and when I tried to find it a couple days after what came up was a half-dozen people making the same reference, none of whom are the person who induced the search in the first place. Countless more are no doubt lost to the vagaries of Twitter's search function.

I'm not sure how many of those people remembered who won that fight. I had heard about it a million times but until I just watched the thing on YouTube now I did not know that Hagler won. I'm sure Thomas Hearns and Thomas Hearns's family is vividly aware of this, and this is the difference between boxing and team sports with vast rabid fanbases. Most of the people watching a football game are cheering for a particular outcome. Most of the people watching a boxing match are cheering for a good boxing match.

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In the aftermath of the game we were walking back to our hotel and there were various other disappointed Michigan fans in our vicinity. One of them was loudly bitching about Jim Harbaugh; I turned to see who it was. Just some kid. We locked eyes for a second, and then I turned away. He turned the volume down.

In the aftermath of the game all of the online spaces I frequent that discuss Michigan football were toxic. I made the mistake of tweeting anything—in this case a joke about how delirious that game was—and immediately got a bunch of replies from people deep in their feelings, just lashing out at anything that presented itself as a target.

I don't want to present myself as somehow above this. I devolved into a non-sentient being after the Mullings fumble, capable of saying "fuck" and only "fuck" for a solid minute. One reason this column is pretty much always the last column to come out about a particular football game is the simple fact that I don't trust myself to be a sentient being even the day after a football game. I need to gather myself.

This was not the above basketball game, spiritually, because Michigan was supposed to win the football game and was not supposed to win the basketball game. (They were higher seeded, but it was March Kentucky, not November Kentucky.) I am frustrated and upset and baffled at how galactically damaging all of Michigan's mistakes were, but… I mean… that was the game. Michigan made mistakes that were maximally punished. They responded by flinging balls downfield unlike they had done all year and battled until they had a chance.

They couldn't take it, but I don't know, if your main takeaway from that game is just to bitch about the program what are we even doing any of this for? Michigan's not going to be Alabama or Georgia. Michigan is always going to be exposed to this kind of thing. It sucks that Michigan lost this game, but at least it was a game worth losing. Unlike last year.

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That fumble just lingers with me, though, because it was the Michigan error that was truly unforced. It's true that the replay official made a nonsensical decision to take a touchdown off the board, but that still left Michigan with 98% of a touchdown. Michigan deleted the rest of that expectation themselves, without TCU's intervention. Not only did that play reduce Michigan's chance of winning by an absurd amount, it made the second half one in which Michigan was continually held at arm's length instead of one in which the teams were standing toe to toe, throwing haymakers for the lead.

I know, game states and all that, but Michigan robbed itself of a chance to win a game that would have been even more of a classic than this one was. I suppose you could work up a theory of why this is someone's fault. I don't see the point in it, nor do I think that's really true. Look at TCU's season and tell me there's any sense to it.

Sometimes you just have to look at something, blankly, and decide that the world is an unreasonable place. 2022 TCU football is that place. "Everything happens for a reason" is the biggest lie in the history of humanity. Some things are expected based on reasonable suppositions about previous experience, and some things are cosmic rays from a supernova a thousand light years from here alighting on the wrong strand of DNA. Many of the things that happened in this game were the former; the difference lies in the latter. A guy at the one yard line, without the ball.

Maybe "fuck" is the only reasonable statement that can be made, after all.

ONE BULLET

Sorry about not getting the Purdue UFR out; it is charted and I will post it in the near future. Game analysis of this one can wait until the TCU UFR, but the one high-level point I want to make is that Michigan's mistakes were indeed galactically damaging. There were four separate plays in this game with an estimated points added (or subtracted) of more than a touchdown, and they all went TCU's way:

image

Two pick sixes, a missed tackle on a Knowles-ass defensive playcall, and an inability to get a handoff into the hands of the running back. On top of that there was a giant completion on a busted coverage where Gemon Green thought a corner blitz was on but the safety did not think a corner blitz was on and the 69-yard run from Demercado. Also the failed Philly Special.

TCU responded with a fumble from Demercado and the interception that just bounced off their receiver; if Michigan is able to put together a touchdown drive on their last-gasp effort it's TCU fans sitting here today agonizing over their galactically large mistakes. But because Michigan had six of them and TCU had ~four, they're in the final and Michigan is not.

Comments

M Dude in Portlandia

January 3rd, 2023 at 5:09 PM ^

OK, I'll go.

Good stuff, as usual, Brian. This time of year is never easy.

There's just one thing that is really nagging at me about this game - our record on grass vs. turf.

Last two years (sorry anecdotal, but it does sound right) - Turf: 24-0 Grass: 1-3. With the one win falling heavily on the shoulders of a couple of future Iowa Hawkeyes.

OK, so you've got that and you add in the fact that TCU plays their home games on grass (like many Southern teams?) and we, evidently, do not put a lot of emphasis on practicing on grass.

Could this be a big part of our failure in bowl games? Could it be why the OL looked like they were playing on the surface of the moon?

It seems like there's something to this to me. I hope the staff takes this sort of thing seriously.

TrueBlue2003

January 3rd, 2023 at 6:35 PM ^

I think there's definitely something to this.  The play where Mazi comes at Duggan and slips was indicative of him not realizing how hard he could try to cut.

They did practice on grass during the week.  That's why they practiced at the (Angels?) spring training facility.  It probably wasn't enough and certainly didn't include a lot of all out plays like the above to even test the surface.

gbdub

January 3rd, 2023 at 7:42 PM ^

The grass seemed completely fine, especially compared to the horrible conditions in a lot of the baseball stadium bowl venues. It’s grass, so it will never be perfect, but there are plenty of NFL teams playing on worse every week. Let’s not be OSU and fall apart over any slightly bad natural conditions. 

First And Shut…

January 3rd, 2023 at 5:13 PM ^

"Maybe "fuck" is the only reasonable statement that can be made, after all."

I think that sums it up pretty well. 

I remember once when our cat meowed loudly to go out one winter day, so I got up, opened the door to the outside, and we both saw a swirling snowstorm. The cat took one look, hissed at the world, and went back to sit on the couch.

I'm sitting on the couch now

Goggles Paisano

January 3rd, 2023 at 5:33 PM ^

Still painful even a few days later.  The Philly Special, fumble on the goal line, cover 0 with the safety blitzing from the parking lot on a 3rd and 7 down 3, the incompetency of the booth...

Cosmic rays up my ass, with a red-hot poker - this is how I feel.   

Blue Middle

January 3rd, 2023 at 5:33 PM ^

So many things are true about this game:

  • It was poorly officiated
  • The players made some blunders
  • The coaches called some questionable plays
  • TCU got one more play than UM did
  • I hate the long layoff between games (looking forward to the playoff)
  • We were still one play/call away from winning
  • The players made some great plays
  • The coaches made some great adjustments
  • It was poorly officiated, right down to the last play

I absolutely hated the trick play on 4th down on the first drive.  We are the better, more talented team.  We should have just played our game.

The goal line fumble was an example of mistakes by players and coaches.  Don't know if the exchange is on JJ or Mullings, but those two guys had never run that play in a game.  I don't like that call.

Missed tackles on a few plays--most notably the 76 TD--cost us the game.  That has nothing to do with coaching and has not been a problem area for Michigan this year.

While I love our ground game, I felt we were too stubborn with it.  TCU had clearly activated a run blitz scheme that was designed to take away our base plays, and it was just clear how much that opened-up the play action game.  We should have been playing more big play murder ball earlier.

We should have activated the QB run game sooner.

We looked sloppier than we have all year.  A lot of play calls and new plays looked WAY overthought.  The better team should just play their game!

Losing Schoonmaker hurt very badly.  Did Bredeson play?  Given the way TCU was run blitzing, having a more fullbacky player lined-up in the backfield could have helped the run game.

Overall, I just want to see Michigan come out and play a good bowl game.  Hasn't happened in a long time.

MgofanNC

January 6th, 2023 at 4:48 PM ^

Great summation here. Agree whole heartedly on the bowl game losses. There have been a lot of reasons why Harbaugh hasn't posted a better bowl record but it is a disturbingly bad record. I am not a fan of the 12 team playoff generally, but I am hoping that the fact that those games will happen closer to the end of the season will improve his post season performances/record.

RAH

January 3rd, 2023 at 5:35 PM ^

Great, rational response! I have tried to avoid all the irrational bitching but that is not completely possible. It is helpful to have some sympathetic but rational discussion.

uminks

January 3rd, 2023 at 5:37 PM ^

Too bad Michigan had to play their worse game of the season in the playoffs. I don/t get how KSU dominated TCU in the trenches and we could not. Then Alabama dominates KSU in the trenches. I thought this game would be won in the trenches and that Michigan would win. Oh well, may be with a new coach we will open up the offense more to win playoff games. We should make the playoffs more frequently in the new 12 team playoff system after 2024, unless the new coach fuck things up?

KC Wolve

January 3rd, 2023 at 5:39 PM ^

I agree, but my excuse to poor performances in bowl games is mostly attributed to the idiocy of having a month or more off from your last game. I think UM wins that game 8 out of 10 times regardless, but I have few doubts they would have won had the game been played a week or two after the Big 10 title game. The break is as outdated as the bowl system. They need to start the playoffs no later than 2 weeks after the final game. 

DonAZ

January 3rd, 2023 at 6:24 PM ^

What I can't figure out is why some teams seem to handle that month-or-more layoff and come out hitting on all cylinders, and others teams -- historically Michigan falls into this category, though exceptions exist: 2008 Orange, 2016 Citrus -- seem to come out flat, lethargic, or error prone.

Double-D

January 3rd, 2023 at 5:56 PM ^

This one stings because this was our year.

I think back to the Pistons vs Celtics “Bird stole the ball”. The Pistons were the better team yet they still needed another year to break through.  And boy did they.

College is a bit of a different animal but Michigan should be loaded next year. Its one of the reasons I believe Harbaugh is letting the media negotiate with Warde right now. 

AC1997

January 3rd, 2023 at 6:04 PM ^

The f word and cosmic rays are likely the best thing to shake your fist at though I do want to make one point about the fumble. I would argue the reason we lost this game is essentially because we could not punch the ball in from inside the five for a while and left 20 points on the board. That included the dumb Philly special, the fumble, our first two-point attempts, and settling for a short field goal after the bell catch which I think the rest improperly spotted as well.

 

The analysis from my uneducated point of view is that we tried to do things we've never done before in order to score and did not have a good plan for goal line offense. Part of that was not having Corum, part of that is not having a fullback on the roster for reasons that make no sense, part of that was not engaging JJ in the run game until later, and part of that was maybe too much time to prepare and getting too cute. If you want to direct your anger in a specific direction, the comprehensive struggle of our goal line offense is the place I would direct it.  

 

The fumble was particularly infuriating not just because of the failure of execution, but it was running a play we have literally not run all year with players enrolls they have not played all year. We haven't run a fullback dive the entire season and now we put a linebacker in with a tight end acting as the running back and screwed it up. That is not logical when you could just run a quarterback sneak or hand the ball to an actual running back.

jdemille9

January 5th, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^

Having Corum may not have meant we win, but gotta imagine that first drive we get points with Corum by the goal line and I sincerely doubt he fumbles on the goal line like Mullings did in the 2nd quarter. 

Easy to play the 'what if' game after the fact, but I do think not having Corum was a really big factor in us losing this game - even just two field goals (on the first drive and the Mullings fumble) and it's going to OT. 

Oh well, we have seen Harbaugh rebuild this team and culture the last two years and honestly, it's great to be complaining about going 25-3 with back to back B1G titles and two straight curb stompings of OSU. Fucking sucks to have played by far the worst game of the year, in arguably one of the biggest games of the last 20 years, but such is life. As most of us probably agree, Michigan likely wins this game 8 times out of 10, this just happened to be one of those 2 times we couldn't. 

Whether it's Harbaugh or someone else next year, this program has an identity and a great culture and I think we'll continue to see The Game as the de facto B1G championship and playoff ticket for years to come. I hope. 

slimj091

January 3rd, 2023 at 6:08 PM ^

Luckily over the past couple of decades my brain has adapted by hording serotonin, and dopamine just for these situations. In games like these I'm usually numb by the second quarter. However it has turned me into a cantankerous stuffy pants for most of the rest of my life.

k.o.k.Law

January 3rd, 2023 at 6:10 PM ^

Yes. TCU has been lucky all season and they were lucky to beat us.

It is all about perspective.  

In 2016, I drove to Lexington KY to pick up daughter #2 and continued to Atlanta, landed a pair of tickets, watched the game, and drove back to Lexington in time for daughter to get to work.

It was worth it.

But I have seen our teams just miss so many times, the 1976 hockey final when we came back from down 5-2 in the third period only to lose in OT.

It was not meant to be.

Again this year for football.

Recently, I was stunned that a cyst older than Seth and Brian turned out to be malignant.

I am not sure why it was recommended to me to remove it now, after all this time.

The December 16 diagnosis of cancer of the saliva gland was totally unexpected - never any symptoms of anything; it was not even changing shape or growing, but my reaction was exacerbated by knowing one person who had that cancer - and she died of it 18 months ago.   So the December 27 call from the doctor that the tissue around the cyst, removed on December 16, was cancer free was a, well, the word "relief" just does not cover it.

I was so happy to be in that stadium sucking air in an apparently cancer free body, along with one of my two daughters, that the significance of the results on the field paled in comparison.

I concur with the "Desmond was tripped" Diary in pointing out that our team battled to the end.

I believe we will be back,

It is, was, and always will be, great to be a Michigan Wolverine.

DonAZ

January 3rd, 2023 at 6:27 PM ^

This is a good illustration of why it's better to invest oneself in what really matters, and the outcome of college football games is not that.  Enjoy the game, yes; hope for a win, sure; have things crash down because of a loss, no. 

Very happy to read of your healthy prognosis!

Meeeeshigan

January 4th, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^

Enjoyed reading this. So happy to hear the positive outcome. Perspective is necessary at times, as a fan and in life in general.

This column offered some rational takes, which I agree with and appreciate as well. As I watched the ending of this game with my 10-year-old son, he was devastated, crying, very upset. We had tentatively planned to fly to L.A. for the Championship Game, had Michigan made it (had flights, hotel, and tickets through U-M all lined up). Alas, not meant to be. In that moment, I found myself having to be the rational guy, not the toxic fan, for my son. Tried to emphasize how hard they fought in the game, and had a chance to win, despite the many big mistakes. Reminded him how great this season has been--really how absolutely enjoyable the last 2 years of Michigan fandom have been! Gently told him that this disappointment is part of being a fan--it hurts now, but makes the victories that much sweeter.

I find myself laughing every time that Dr. Pepper Fansville commercial comes on with the guy at the river telling the group that "it's just a bunch of kids playing with a ball. Maybe there's more to life..." I've seen this ad at least 30 times now, but I still appreciate the humor/message.

I will always be grateful for Michigan Football. There are obviously more important things in life, but this pastime has provided a worthy distraction, much joy, and sorrow, over many years and will continue to do so. Agree: It's great to be a Michigan Wolverine. Go Blue.

M-Dog

January 3rd, 2023 at 6:34 PM ^

Six very bad Michigan plays represented a 42 point swing:

- The two Pick-6's,

- The two Blitz-6's,

- The fumble at the goal line,

- The Philly Not-So-Special.

And yet we still were driving for the win at the end of the game.  (It is noteworthy that Ohio State's five very bad plays against us this year led to a 22 point loss.)

Change the six very bad Michigan plays above to merely five very bad plays . . . and we win the game and are playing for the National Championship.

It might be the worst loss in Michigan history in terms of what could have been versus what did not need to be.

HChiti76

January 4th, 2023 at 1:55 AM ^

M-Dog: “It might be the worst loss in Michigan history in terms of what could have been versus what did not need to be.”

No. 1972-75 Ohio State games were. Just happened to be the four games during mine & koklaw’s undergraduate years. 
 

Outplayed them all four years. Lost in 1972 because Bo was stubborn and went for TD’s on fourth downs instead of kicking field goals. And the Big 10 refs were afraid to signal TD in Columbus in front of Woody on a couple dive plays where it appeared we broke the plane. Go back and listen to Ufer completely lose it on the air. 
 

1973-The infamous 10-10 tie, where we were dominating, up 10-0 early, which was a big lead in that game, only to have QB Dennis Franklin get injured and be out of the game, followed by Lantry missing game winning FG’s, followed by the criminal Big Ten AD’s vote sending OSU to the Rose Bowl and our season finished. No bowl games for Big Ten teams back then other than the Rose Bowl. 
 

1974-Down in Columbus, we gave up no TD’s, outplayed them again and lost 12-10 with another game winning Lantry miss. 

In those three years, our record was 30-2-1, 0-2-1 vs OSU, & 30-0 vs everyone else. NO BOWL GAMES. 
 

Finally, our senior year, Ohio State moved easily down the field and scored a TD to go up 7-0. After that, our defense totally shut down the powerful Buckeye offense led by two time Heisman winner Archie Griffin. The Buckeyes DIDN’T HAVE A FIRST DOWN after that first drive until late in the game, when they were 3rd (maybe 4th) & 10 from their own 20, we had their QB, Cornelius Greene almost sacked, he ran around like Fran Tarkenton, at least ten yards behind the line of scrimmage, and threw a wounded duck prayer down the field to a diving receiver, who caught it at the 30, barely enough for a first down. They then moved down the field and scored, tying it 14-14. Because of two early ties in the non-conference schedule, we were 8-0-2 and they were 10-0. All they had to do was tie and they went to the Rose Bowl. We had to win. There were only two minutes to go and our freshman QB, Rick Leach, was forced to air it out, which we never did. He threw a pick to Archie’s brother Ray Griffin deep in our territory. A few plays later, they scored and won 21-14. Another heartbreaking loss. 
 

My Michigan undergraduate years, 38-0-2 vs everyone else, 0-3-1 vs the Buckeyes, and we should have won all four games. Our loss to TCU doesn’t even begin to compare. 
 

The only consolation that year was they changed the one bowl game rule and we went to the 1976 Orange Bowl, which I attended. We lost to the eventual NC Oklahoma Sooners with the Selmon brothers. 
 

Harlans Haze

January 4th, 2023 at 8:35 AM ^

No matter what Harbaugh does (stay/go), I simply want him to walk through the conversation that resulted in the Bredeson/Mullings goal line play, getting into the game plan. Did it go like this:

Harbaugh: Guys, we really need a good goal line play, since we've struggled there recently.

Moore: You mean, besides the Philly Special?

Harbaugh: Yeah, that's only in case of emergency and we're having trouble moving their d-line.

Weiss: With due respect Jim, Mullings did punch it in twice in the Purdue game. Once as a single back and once with Bredeson. Maybe we should just stick to that.

Harbaugh: Nah, they'll be ready for that. We have to change it up. 

Moore: You wanna try a split backfield with Mullings and D?

Harbaugh: No, no no. I like having the FB in there. 

Weiss: So, something different with Mullings and Bredeson?

Harbaugh: Yeah.

Moore: A split backfield with Mullings and Bredeson?

Harbaugh: No, no, no. I still want the FB.

Weiss: I'm lost. That's exactly what we had vs. Purdue. Bredeson at FB and Mullings at RB. 

Harbaugh: Right, but this time we'll switch it up.

Moore. I don't understand. How do you switch that up?

Harbaugh: We'll put Max at RB and Mullings at FB. 

Weiss: That's crazy. You can't hand it off to Max in that situation. We'll have to practice that 100 times. 

Harbaugh: We won't hand it to Max.

Moore: You mean, a JJ keeper? Why do we even have a FB then?

Harbaugh: No, no, no. We're handing it off to Kalel. 

Moore: Ok, then why do we have Max at RB, then?

Harbaugh: To throw the defense off. 

Weiss: I guess I can live with that.

Harbaugh: Aaannnnd, we're going to have Kalel line up in a tight formation, a yard behind JJ, just to disguise the run to get t hem to think that it's going to Max. 

Moore: What? That's crazy!

Harbaugh: So crazy, it just might work. 

 

OldManJim

January 3rd, 2023 at 8:33 PM ^

I can honestly say that I managed to not get totally blotto during the game---I reserved that for afterwards.  And at my age (70) the restraint was impressive.

Almost all of my criticisms go to the coaching staff:

1.  TCU's run defense looked a lot like Maryland's and Indiana's---shoot second and third level players down to stuff the run.  We seemed unprepared for this.  Bad.

2.  The "Philly Special" might have been the most outstandingly stupid play-call I have seen.

3.  Except, perhaps, for the safety blitz that gave TCU the long TD when DJ Turner missed the tackle.  Note to Jesse Minter:  How well did this work in Columbus?

4.  I do not understand the reasoning behind overturning Roman Wilson's first TD.  As I saw it, he caught the ball in his gut as his butt was lying on the goal line, so the ball was ON the goal line, ergo TD.

5.  So much changes if we get those two TDs.  If we assume the rest of the game flow is as it was (not entirely valid), then TCU's last possession begins with them down 59--51.  Just giving us one of them, we are still up 52--51.

6.  Supposedly one of the refs was an Ohio State graduate.  Not something you really want to complain about, but ...

7.  Whatever happens with Harbaugh (I really wish he would put all this off-season bullshit to bed with a simple declarative sentence) his post-game remarks were, IMO, spot-on.  The kids fought hard.  They found themselves in a damn big hole, and nearly dug out of it.

8.  I think a lot of the conservative play-calling regarding JJ runs was due to Cade's injury.  Without a seasoned backup, you do not want to risk the starter.

 

Blumami

January 3rd, 2023 at 8:45 PM ^

I’ve not heard or read anywhere the significance of Blake Corum’s absence. Not saying this is the reason for our loss. Injuries are part of the game (TCU lost their RB1 in the first quarter). Edwards is a fine back, explosive. Heck, his performance in Columbus is the reason we reached the quarterfinals in the first place. But Edwards is NOT Corum. As a result we were in 3rd-and-7 all day. 
 

Forgetting about the fact that if Corum is in the backfield, we don’t fumble on the one yard line and likely have no need to run the Philly Special on our other chance inside the five… What I am saying is that we did not get the game we wanted to see — 〽️’s boa constrictor, wear ‘em down approach vs. the wide open, Big 12 style of TCU. 
 

To continue Brian’s boxing analogy, ‘Styles make fights’. Unfortunately, our Wolverines were fighting southpaw in this one. 

Durham Blue

January 4th, 2023 at 12:04 AM ^

Thank you for posting this.  I made a similar comment to a friend after the game.  Corum was so consistent getting yardage that he left the offense with 3rd and manageable most of the time.  I would venture to say that the result would've been different having Corum at 100% against TCU.

Hail-Storm

January 3rd, 2023 at 10:09 PM ^

Such a weird game. I can’t explain it. The offense was bad, in that it threw 2 pick 6’s, couldn’t get a consistent run game, and couldn’t punch it in from inside the 5 3 times, yet scored 45 points after 7 was taken from them. 
 

I think they are the second best team in the nation this year and had a good chance at beating Georgia, but that’s why they play the game. 
 

really wish Loveland threw the ball away and they ran McCarthy more in the first half. I was annoyed by delayed blitzes but I was enjoying the game in the 3rd and 4th quarter. 
 

I really wanted that instant classic to go Blues way. Oh well. Fun season