THE ESSENTIALS

Right: nightmare fuel

THE US

Seth's graphic, now with 100% more Franz Wagner [click to embiggen]:

Nunez is no longer cyan'd because he's fine as a ninth man. We've added a couple sharpshooter designations. May we not regret these very important decisions.

THE BRACKET

Click for the larger version, I realize this is next-to-impossible to read.

This is the first semifinal, which you can find on the upper right side of the bracket. I'm writing this before the other two quarterfinals are decided. If Michigan beats UNC, they'd earn a spot in the title game against almost certainly one of Gonzaga/Seton Hall/Oregon; that game would be at 2 pm on Friday afternoon. If M loses, they'd face the loser of the other semifinal—still most likely one of those three teams—on Friday morning at 11:30.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

It's North Carolina, which means they've turned over almost their entire team, yet still look a lot like all of their other teams, which Michigan has gone 1-1 against over the last two years. Gone is lottery pick point guard Cody White; in steps freshman #1 overall pick candidate Cole Anthony to run the show. There's an athletic 6'8" dude with, uh, developing basketball skills. There are lots of tall people who rebound very well. They go fast. Their uniforms look good. While there are some distinctions to be made between teams upon closer inspection, this is easily identifiable as a UNC squad.

Let's start with Anthony, since UNC sure does. He's second in the early KenPom Player of the Year rankings because he's combined monster usage (31.5%) with okay efficiency (98.0 ORtg). The son of former NBA guard Greg Anthony, Cole is an exceptional athlete—he already has three games with at least nine defensive rebounds—and talented playmaker who's still in the process of reining it in.

Anthony was great in their opening win over Notre Dame, pouring in 34 points on 26 shot equivalents with 11 rebounds, five assists, and four turnovers. He was less great in the quarterfinal victory over Alabama: 13 points on 16 shot equivalents, seven rebounds, six assists, six turnovers, four steals. He'll almost certainly draw Zavier Simpson, which'll be a really fun matchup to watch.

Big man Garrison Brooks is the lone returning starter. At an athletic 6'9", 235, Brooks can play the four or the five, and has split his time this year evenly between the two positions. He's a solid finisher down low, tough to keep off the offensive glass, and draws a lot of fouls, though he's not a great free-throw shooter. He's become a more active passer out of the post over his career, but so far this season that's come with an uncharacteristic spike in turnovers. He's going to be a load to handle when he's lined up at power forward.

Brooks starts at the four next to 6'10", 232-pound freshman Armando Bacot, who's been really good at big man stuff so far: 23/38 on twos, top 35 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates, six blocks in four games. He gets to the line a lot, where he looks a lot like a big man, going 7/17 from the stripe. He's been turnover-prone; Teske will be a tough test for him.

Spectacularly named 6'8" sophomore Leaky Black is a lanky wing who's mostly out there for his athleticism, transition finishing, and defense, which is sorta three ways of the same thing. For the second straight season, he's taken a very small role in the offense, and while he's capable of making the occasional jumper, Roy Williams probably doesn't want him putting the ball on the floor.

In this afternoon's game, 6'5" senior guard Brandon Robinson made his season debut coming off an injury and provided an immediate lift as an outside shooter. The career 38% three-point shooter hit 3-of-6 triples; that was much-needed with previous starter Christian Keeling going 4-for-15 from beyond the arc to start the season. 

You may remember sixth man Justin Pierce from this offseason when we were kicking around names of desirable grad transfers. The William & Mary stretch four is a career 35% shooter from beyond the arc on high volume and he's also been an effective post scorer. He's scuffling this season in a smaller role against better competition, with his two worst games coming against the two power conference teams he's faced. While not finishing a lot of possessions, he's keeping many alive; he ranks in the top 75 in offensive rebound rate.

The final rotation piece is junior wing Andrew Platek, a low-usage option who's good at finishing what's created for him.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

Now that's quite a statistical profile. This is an extreme version of UNC so far. They can't really shoot: 45.9% on twos, 33.3% on a low number of threes, and 62.1% at the line. They turn the ball over more than most good teams. They still have the #19 adjusted offense because they rebound over 40% of their misses and draw a lot of fouls.

The UNC defense is particularly stingy at the rim, forcing opponents to shoot 40.4% on twos while blocking 10.5% of those attempts. They're third in the country in defensive rebounding rate and 11th in preventing opponents from getting to the line, a tough feat to pull off when going for that many blocks. The tradeoff is they don't force many turnovers and they allow a ton of three-point attempts, although those have only fallen at a 29.0% clip this season. Bama hoisted 31 threes and made only 11 this afternoon; they were 15/37 on twos, so that was still the preferable option.

THE KEYS

Control the tempo. Yes, yet again. UNC doesn't have a great halfcourt offense but they have great athletes and a really good open-court maestro in Anthony. Michigan, particularly Zavier Simpson, has been giving up the ball at an alarming rate. Open-play turnovers are death against this team. Simpson must be in better control than he was against Iowa State.

Make your threes. They're gonna be there for the taking. The game may well come down to this, unless...

Don't get murdered on the boards. Michigan can't let UNC go wild on the glass. This is a bit of a worry after a tiny Creighton team managed to rebound 43% of their misses against the Wolverines earlier this season, but Michigan has tightened things up on defense since then. This pace is going to push Jon Teske, so Colin Castleton and perhaps even Austin Davis are going to have to provide solid stretches; Castleton has been decent overall but is occasionally overwhelmed by strength, and that's something to watch in this one.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

UNC by 3.

The size of the Tar Heels will provide a new challenge for this team. If Michigan isn't careful, Brooks could wreak havoc at the four-spot, and it's also going to take a team-wide effort to contain Anthony.