1/28/2020 – Michigan 79, Nebraska 68 – 12-8, 3-6 Big Ten

You may have noticed that these posts spend an inordinate amount of time talking about Franz Wagner. The slim sections of them not dedicated to complaining about cosmic shooting injustices often linger on Wagner: how is he feeling? How is he doing? Would he like some hot tea? Guten morgen Franz, would you like a newspaper? Newspapers used to be news, on paper, Franz. Yes I don't know why anyone would print that stuff out. I feel like we're losing the thread of the conversation.

Anyway: this game made the reason for this obsession clear. Minus Zavier Simpson, Michigan needed someone to generate shots. John Teske opted out after a little early success when Nebraska's oompa-loompa crew started doubling him; DDJ and Brooks chipped in here and there but Brooks only took two twos and DeJulius only hit one of his five. With Michigan stuck in its usual malaise from behind the arc someone was going to have to hit something on the interior.

That was Franz, who was 7/10 from two with an and-one and one dubious charge call suffered. Many of these were easy finishes:

Michigan | ATO Special

Really like this after timeout call from Howard to get a baseline runner a look from three or attacking a close-out.

Baseline runner --> Pin --> Hand-back --> Flare pic.twitter.com/ARokYtr4BS

— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) January 29, 2020

And that's why we keep talking about Franz. DDJ's only make was a tough floater he took after driving baseline. When DDJ hits something the most common reaction is "wow," because everything DDJ hits is tough. Aside from the occasional cut that catches his defender on a screen, everything Brooks hits inside the line is tough. An earlier edition of this post asserted that Brooks should prefer long twos once he steps inside the line. QED.

Never say never but it is unlikely that either one is able to improve from their current 46% inside the line to anything near good. They're always going to be 5'11" guys who shoot layups on breakaways. Zavier Simpson did it; guys who improve like Simpson are rare. Call me when someone else under six feet tall develops a sky hook.

Wagner is nearly a foot taller than those guys and has crazy gumby arms, so when it goes right it leads to shots that should convert. He missed an early bunny against Illinois, causing everyone to go "argh." But to miss a bunny you've got to make a bunny. Franz creates bunnies. He's already shooting 58% from two despite looking like a stick insect.  There's a path to high volume efficiency there that nobody else currently on the roster has except maybe Johns. Wagner is nearly two years younger than Johns and much more aggressive despite that gap.

Also Franz was 1/5 from three to pull his season average further under 30% and had six turnovers. It can be said that Franz saved Michigan's ass in a game where he had an 89 ORTG. This is the dichotomy of Franz. Dan Dakich exclaimed that "he's a pro" after one swooping layup, because he sure as hell looks like one 36.4% of the time.

The rest of the time… eh, not so much. Wagner is currently high on the list of deceptive highlight guys. You can put together reels in which he looks like a superstar. In fact someone did based on this game:

Franz Wagner
Michigan G 6'8, 205

Wagner continues his strong stretch (18 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST, 3 STL, 1 BLK), making an impact on both ends and leading the Wolverines to a crucial road win.@ProBBallCombine
pic.twitter.com/rqNxVyDF2V

— Jonathan Götting (@j_goetting) January 29, 2020

This is not the reality of Wagner. But it—particularly the floater that is an entirely different kind of shot than floaters from Michigan guards—is why we keep talking about him. Brooks is going to be a version of Brooks down the road. DDJ is going to be a version of DDJ. Wagner could be anything.

[After THE JUMP: miscellania including a 353 ranking]

always flashes [Campredon]

Speaking of Johns. This was probably his best game at Michigan; last year against Indiana and the recent PSU game are the other contenders. 16 points on 9 shot equivalents plus 3 OREBs is tough to beat. Level of competition caveats apply most heavily for him against Nebraska's tiny lineup but it still seemed telling in the second half when Michigan repeatedly posted him up instead of Teske. At that point Teske was sitting on three shots total; seemed like Michigan got a little frustrated with his passivity.

Johns is still massively inconsistent and seems to have games that start poorly and go nowhere from there. He's coming off 18 minutes against Illinois in which he took one shot and had 3 rebounds. Remember when it felt like Moe Wagner hitting his first three was worth 10 points? Johns is like that but moreso. At the moment. It might not be a bad idea to involve him in some early post touches to see if he can get off on the right foot.

Crashing the glass. Michigan was far more aggressive about offensive rebounding in this game than they have been all season. That resulted in Michigan grabbing 30% of their misses. Six of the ten OREBs came from Johns and Wagner because the closest thing Nebraska has to a 4 is ThorThor.

off-guard point guard [Campredon]

Point guard preview. In Simpson's absence Michigan used Brooks as the primary initiator but not as a major shot creator. He took 10 of his 12 shots from outside the line and had four assists vs two TOs. I'd expect much the same next year, which will be fine if Michigan has a creator at shooting guard. Maybe a 6'4" guy with the ability to jump over small nations.

I mean. Since Nebraska is Nebraska Michigan's three point curse only bought them a 11-point loss, but the portion of this game that was tight was almost entirely because Nebraska shot 54% from three over the first ~30 minutes. Guys shooting 31 and 29 percent entering the game combined to go 8/12 on shots that were either contested or well behind the line.

Michigan shot 29% as a team; Nebraska shot 43%. Someone find the malevolent demon running this pocket dimension and offer him a sandwich.

Bajema's lack of PT is baffling [Campredon]

Exit Cole Bajema? Bajema did not get on the floor. Michigan preferred Adrien Nunez, who went 1/6 from three in 17 minutes and had a turnover that looked like an ordinary fan had been handed a basketball, and CJ Baird, who was one rebound away from an eight trillion. Nunez is now shooting 22% from three on 54 career attempts and does nothing else. Baird is a walk-on.

It rather boggles the mind to think about what must be going on in practice for a top 100 recruit to not even get a chance to prove he's better. This goes beyond "misses all his shots and is a bad defender," because Nunez also checks those boxes. Cole Bajema practices must start with Bajema driving to the basket and end with him re-entering the gym hours later covered in glowing green ooze, pursued by a gaggle of furious stop-motion animated animals. One time Bajema bent over to tie his shoe and ended up accidentally kidnapping the president of Uzbekistan. The last time he shot a three it bounced off the top of the backboard, rolled through the door and into the street (where it caused a five-car pileup), trundled across the golf course, and fell into a drain. And that's why the entire state flooded last Tuesday. Cole Bajema covered the only drain in the state with a basketball.

Anyway: the road back from not playing in this game is a tough one. This isn't a redshirt decision: Bajema played against MSU, well after the deadline to stop playing and claim an injury. This is Juwan Howard surveying a bench consisting of Bajema, Nunez, and no other scholarship guys 1-4 and giving him a DNP-CD.

The good news for Bajema is that Ibi Watson is shooting 57/45 as 18-2 Dayton's sixth man.

Castleton sighting. A lot of people are writing Colin Castleton off. This game provided a couple reasons not to: when faced with guys who weren't going to overpower him he had 5 points in four minutes here plus an impressive block. Another year of meat on him might allow him to extend that performance to other teams in the league.

One of this site's mantras is Never Give Up On A Big. Austin Davis is exceeding admittedly modest expectations; Castleton has a lot more upside and sticking with him is likely to pay off better than trying to find someone else at the 5 next year.

Nebrasketball is always good for names. Not so much the basketball but this year's edition features Thorir Thorbjarnson, Yvan Ouedraogo, Akol Arop, and Haanif Cheatham.

FWIW, Michigan's six blocks sent Nebraska down to 353rd (dead last) in opponent block rate. Next lowest high major is… Baylor? 17 and 1, headed for a one seed Baylor? Far out.