What's your record prediction for Michigan in 2018?
For me it's 9-3 (7-2):
L - @ND
W - WMU
W - SMU
W - Nebraska
W - @NW
W - Maryland
L - Wisconsin
W - @MSU
W - PSU
W - @Rutgers
W - Indiana
L - @OSU
I'd code @ND, Wisconsin, @MSU and PSU as "high level of uncertainty" games. So we could go 4-0 across that stretch or 0-4, but I don't see either as very likely. More likely we go 3-1, 2-2 or 1-3. Nebraska is another one that would be tricky, if it was a road game, but it's at home so I'm not too worried.
Expectations were 8-4 +/-1 his first year, 10-2 his second and 9-3 last year, so he's been right about there. No "smashing" that I've seen yet.
The last time Michigan smashed expectations was 2006, but that still resulted in a loss to OSU.
The last time Michigan smashed expectations and beat OSU was 1997. 20+ years ago.
2011 was a season of fortuitous bounces. We almost botched beating MSU despite their horrific team that year. Notre Dame was a gift from the football Gods.
With this schedule, predicting 10-2 is essentially predicting that this Michigan team is the best one in 20 years. It could happen- the coaching and talent is there- but a season like that is only lost in the month of May, not won. A long road ahead to achieve that kind of success.
Same as OP (9-3) but losing to (puke) Sparty instead of Wisconsin .....
11-1. I predict they will lose 1 game they shouldn't, and then win 3 straight playoff games to end 14-1.
12-2. Early loss @ND and then an odd one to NW. B1G Champ win, but snubbed from the Playoff. Win in a NY6 bowl game.
10-1 going into Columbus with the lone loss being at NW (has Iowa 2016 written all over it).
I do believe we win vs OSU this year and get to 11-1 where we will play Wisconsin for the B1G title.
Let's face it though - until someone else in the Big Ten West decides to be not dead, every year we do get there - and I believe we will, perhaps even this year - we will be playing Wisconsin. If not, then some else plays Wisconsin. The one constant for the foreseeable future is somehow running into Wisconsin.
That seems fairly constant as well.
see: OSU and PSU games last year.
Northwestern, where half the fans will be M fans, is not such a tough place to play.
They'll be good though. As I mentioned above, that game is in coin flip territory right up there with the MSU, PSU, Wisc, and ND games in terms of difficulty.
L - @ND
W - WMU
W - SMU
W - Nebraska
W - @NW
W - Maryland
W - Wisconsin
W - @MSU
W - PSU
W - @Rutgers
W - Indiana
L - @OSU
Unfortunately that season ending loss to OSU probably takes out of the Big 10 title game but we still go to a NY6 bowl game.
11-1 regular season (hopefully the loss is not in Columbus). We win the B1G and make the CFP and win the semifinal but lose the championship.
With this schedule that is major accomplishment.
I have also said 10-2, with an added win in a bowl game. 11 win season is nothing to be ashamed about, albeit we really need to make it to Indy and win the B1G one of these years. Would be great to accomplish that when guys like Gary, Winovich and Bush Jr. are still on the squad.
record sooner than later. If M goes 10-2 but wins the East (likely scenario if they lose to ND and beat OSU for a 8-1 conf record), and then wins the B1G title, they'll almost certainly be in the playoff given the difficulty of their schedule.
the o-line to screw us in 2-3 games this year. We don't have a LT and that's going to bite us against better competition.
Losses to PSU, OSU, and whoever we play in the Chew-N-Butts Discount Tobacco & Beer Bowl.
They have to find a way to get to double digit wins, so 10-2.
They have to beat one of MSU and OSU. I'd rather see MSU defeated at this point. I think UM should be the #1 program in it's own state before taking on the rest of the conference.
I still think OSU is ahead of UM in the depth of talent area. But I wouldn't be suprised to see a UM victory against them.
If they have a good season, everything will fall into place. Recruiting will pick up and be fine (they are in on a lot of good 2019 guys but the performance on the field this season will determine those outcomes), Harbaugh's reputation return to national prominence, and the program will have momentum again.
If it's another so-so season (especially if there are losses to MSU and OSU yet again), I think I may have to re-evaluate what my expectations of what UM football can be. If that happens, it's possible that UM is a lot like ND. Good enough to have winning seasons every year and every 4-5 years maybe have a good enough team to get into the playoffs, but maybe not Bama level power.
I'll take getting in the playoff (and winning) every 4-5 years in a heartbeat. Everyone wants to win it every year, but other than Alabama, who has done that? Maybe USC during the Carroll years. Carroll got booted because he was cheating. Barry Switzer? (cheater)
That said, I get your point. Bo would have made a playoff most years. I'd like to see 10-2 as our floor every year and that we beat OSU at least 3/5ths of the time.
I think 10-2 is my expectation floor for this year. If we don't have offensive tackles, I may be very disappointed.
I'm not sure that one win over Sparty this year automatically elevates us to the #1 program in the State in the eyes of today's kids. In terms of prestige, we will always have the edge, but we need to roll off two or three in a row to legitimately take control once again. While they do not have a national brand, Dantonio has certainly built up some cache here in Michigan.
W - @ND
W - WMU
W - SMU
W - Nebraska
W - @NW
W - Maryland
L - Wisconsin
L - @MSU
W - PSU
W - @Rutgers
W - Indiana
W - @OSU
What does my heart tell me: 12-2. Extremely difficult for any team to go undefeated no matter how good they are, but it's the final breakthrough Harbaugh and this fanbase have been waiting for. A trip-up in the first game of the season @ ND, the offense looks decent but just too many missed opportunities that lead to a 21-17ish kind of defeat. But the team regroups and goes undefeated the rest of the way, blasts MSU off the field as Shea finally gets true command of the offense and has his "coming out party," and then engineers a come-from-behind win at OSU to send us to the conference title game, where we knock off Wisconsin again to go to the playoff. Lose to Bama or Georgia in the semis, but its the desperate breakthrough that the program needed.
What my head tells me: even if the offense becomes decent this year, the schedule still does us no favors. The East is loaded with contenders and has three teams that as of right now, are legitimately better than us. Wisconsin is a tough out, so is Northwestern on the road, and who knows what Scott Frost will be able to do at Nebraska this year. An extremely hollow 9-4 season with losses to all the rivals but a bowl win in the Holiday Bowl or some worthless game like that. Not a terrible season, but certainly still a failure in the eyes of many fans. Many wondering if Michigan will ever beat MSU or OSU again before Meyer/Dantonio retire.
My assumption is somewhere in the middle, either 9-3 or 10-2 with some lucky bounces. We do win at least one between PSU and UW at home, but I've got a hard time seeing us beat good MSU or OSU teams on the road. Very much a "Believe it when I see it."
This schedule is downright brutal. No matter how you slice it, BASED ON LAST YEAR, we are in for a fight. Hopefully the football team got inspired by the run made by the basketball team and additions to coaching (S&C and oline especially).
The only "easy" games on our schedule are:
1. Western Michigan
2. SMU
3. Maryland
4. Rutgers
5. Indiana
ND is a very crucial game for us. If we don't win against ND then we are in for what could potentially be our worst season during the Harbaugh era.
In hindsight, dropping Arkansas to play ND was not the best decison to make...
I wanted to see the Arkansas games remain. Not so much becuase of the strength of the matchup but because it was something different.
College football teams mostly stay in their region of the country. It's rare to see a SEC team come north. It would've been cool to see UM go there too.
is rarely easy for us anymore. We've had one easy game, 2014, against them since 2009. Everything else has been way too close.
True, and tbh no games are really easy for us anymore. I expect MD to be improved. Western, who knows. IU will definitely be challenging.
featured JOK at QB though.
If I had to guess I'd say 10-2 or 9-3 with Wiscy being the swing game. ND could go either way too, but I give the advantage to the home team. I think we beat MSU on the road soundly. PSU is another one that could go either way, but at home I give UM the advantagege. Indiana has the potential to be a trap game, but I think we squeek one out there. OSU continues to be the one game we are clearly not favored to win, but I could see us winning that game too, but playing the odds I assume a loss.
ND - L
WMU - W
SMU - W
Neb - W
NW - W
Maryland - W
Wisc - W (this one could go either way)
MSU - W
PSU - W
Rutgers - W
Indiana - W
OSU - L
Best case scenario... 15-0. Why? First, Don Brown's defense, nuff said. But what will be the story of the upcoming season that will lead to Michigans 1st NC since 1997 is Warinner's "simplified" approach immediately paying dividends as the O-line finally transforms in to a death-trap gauntlet for opposing defenses. Starting with ND, they hold their own which will frustrate Kelly & Co. to no end when their gameplan of "pressure bust pipes" falls to the wayside and instead wears their defense down by the end of the 3rd qtr. From there, Kelly, desperate not to lose the spotlight game of the week, will implode on the sideline as his team falls under the efficient, relentless attack by both Michigan's offense and defense. After ND, the offense has 5 games to build on that confident showing and solidify it's meat-grinder mentality as they lead the B10 in fewest sacks allowed and rushing yards heading in to the Wisconsin game... who they will dominate! Things get tricky here because now the national media is in overdrive on the Michigan hype train and detractors are screaming "smoke & mirrors", and the team has a messy 1st half @ MSU that looks like the inevitble epic fail is coming. But the ghost of the past 11 years have finally been excised from this team, from this program, and Michigan fights back for a semi-comfortable win @ MSU. The last 4 games are won by an average of 14 points... yes, including PSU and that school down below as this Michigan team rolls in to the CFP.
Worst case scenario... 11-2 with losses to ND and PSU but we beat MSU and OSU this year plus the bowl win!
Everything hinges on QB play and OL play.
We're great everywhere else.
If Shea has a bumpy year, 8-4.
If he figures it out quickly and we find a way to beat ND, 10-2. With our OL I can't fathom a higher ceiling than that, which is a goddamned shame.
Losses to wisconsin and Clemson in the Natty.
I predict we go 9-3 and our idiot fanbase loses its mind and starts calling for Harbaugh's head.
If Harbaugh is 1-8 against rivals with no marquee wins after this season I think it's fair to want him out.
That would be a terrible criteria for changing coaching staffs AGAIN.
I disagree. Winning big games and beating rivals are extremely important. That's pretty much what I want out of Michigan football. If you're doing those two things, you're probably winning B1G championships (and maybe more). If you're not doing those two things, then you almost certainly aren't winning any kind of championship.
And I should say I don't personally think Harbaugh should be gone after this season regardless of what happens on the field. But if we lose to ND, MSU, and OSU this season, I think it's reasonable if fans want him gone. Let's be honest: 1-8 against rivals would be really fucking embarrassing for a coach as hyped up as Harbaugh.