New kickoff rule
Might be spot on!
Or not....but either way, I like the proposal.
Edj Analytics might be able to tell us the answer. The Eagles use it and made some critical Super Bowl decisions based off of the software.
I'm bored and was interested in this. I'm using the home team model for Expected Point Value based on Big Ten conference games from 2013-2014 found here: http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/big-ten-4th-down-calcu…
The Expected Point Value of 1st & 10 from the 25 is 1.026.
The Expected Point Value of 1st & 10 from the 50 is 2.902.
So from the kicking teams perspective:
-1.026 = 2.902p - 2.902(1-p)
-1.026 = 2.902p -2.902 + 2.902p
1.876 = 5.804p
p = 1.876/5.804 =32%
The breakeven point is recovering 32% of their onside kicks.
The recover rate for non surprise onside kicks is roughly 20%, while it is 60% for surprise onside kicks.
It is statistically worth it to try for surprise onside kicks, but that has always been the case even before this new rule.
Looking at Michigan last year, they had 32 touchbacks and 37 returns for an average of 15 yards. Being as favorable as possible and assuming the return kicks result in an average field position of 1st & 10 from the 15:
32 X 25 = 800
37 X 15 = 555
1,355/69=19.6
The Expected Point Value of 1st & 10 from the 19 is .5758.
1.026 - .5758 = .4502.
If every return last year now results in a fair catch, Michigan loses 6 yards per kickoff. Their Expected Point Value is -.4502 less per kickoff than last year. Michigan averaged 5 kickoffs a game last year, which would be an Expected Point Value decrease of 2.251 per game. That said, teams are still going to try and return balls, and if your kickoff coverage is elite, you will still gain an advantage here. This is basically the worst case scenario for Michigan and it still only results in a 2.251 decrease in Expected Point Value per game for last season. That's not enough to really change your kickoff strategy dramatically.
Looking at the breakeven point last season for Michigan:
-.5758 = 2.902p - 2.902(1-p)
-.5758 = 2.902p -2.902 + 2.902p
2.3262 = 5.804p
p = 2.3262/5.804 = 40%
So this rule change just means Michigan would have to recover 8% less of their onside kicks to reach the breakeven point, but doesn't change the overall kickoff philosophy. It made sense for the them to try some surprise onside kicks last year, and it still makes sense for them to try surprise onside kicks this year.
TLDR: This rule change does not move the needle from it being worth it to try a surprise onside kick this year vs not being worth it last year. It has always been statistically worth it, it will be even more valuable to do it this year, but you're talking about a difference in Expected Point Value per kickoff of less than 0.5.
It is unlikely this rule change will really have any impact in how teams approach kickoffs.
And an increase in surprise kicks is exactly what I’m talking about. If the new norm is going to be lots of fair catches and bored and not fully locked in coverage units I think you’ll see more surprise kicks. Now those may not happen at the 60% rate they’ve done in the past, but even if they drop to around 40%, if there’s now a 40% chance I can get the ball my own 50 in exchange for a 60% chance of giving up just 25 yards? I’m taking that gamble. Maybe not every game, but I think it’s going to be something you see more and more of.
April 13th, 2018 at 10:17 PM ^
Teams returned balls that were caught in the end zone, even against Michigan, so they will absolutely still return some balls that are caught at the 5.
As for why, because of the upside. If you fair catch it you'll start at the 25. If you return it, you may get a TD or have a 50 yard return. If you have an elite return man, hes gonna average 25+ yards a return, so on average you will start with better field position than if he fair catches everything. There really isn't that much downside to returning a ball caught at the 2 if you have a good return team or are playing against a bad kickoff coverage team. You're risking maybe 5 yards of field position for the chance to gain a helluva lot more. There will also be situations at the end of half's where teams won't have the time to drive the field and will be more likely to take a chance returning the ball as a result.
Its just like teams in college basketball that slow the pace or shoot a bunch of 3s because they are outmatched. There are different talent levels amongst teams, and kickoff returns give teams a chance to break the game open and crate a double digit point swing. Look at PSU-OSU last year. OSU absolutely dominated that game but only won by one. PSU had one kickoff return for a TD and another 59 yard return that set up a 23 yard TD drive. If they fair catch both they lose that game by 10+, instead they almost pulled it off despite being dominated.
If this new rule has the impact you are suggesting, and everybody just fair catches everything, that would pretty much eliminate the surprise onside kick. Teams would just have their hands team lined up all over the place and the players would never look to block and would just anticipate an onside kick. The surprise kick works because players are mentally getting ready to block somebody on the coverage team. If there are no more returns, they won't have to worry about blocking and will just focus exclusively on the ball.
I couldn't find any stats about the average starting field position on kickoff returns.
Keep this up and you will be the #1 draft pick for my fantasy statistics league.
Nice statistics, but also enjoyed your logic. Will we see your articles in the Economist this year or you waiting until 2019?
April 13th, 2018 at 11:25 PM ^
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25 yards might not sound like a lot, but that's not the case here. Getting the ball at midfield is a huge plus for any offense.
The entire playbook is open and having such great field position you might be putting your defense on the hook for 4 downs versus 3. As teams may elect to go for it on 4th rather than punt or attempt a long field goal if they are able to move the ball even a little bit.
I agree - and onside kicks hardly ever ever ever work out. Bad strategy OP, regardless of the new rule!
It looked to me like most teams were contect with touchbacks when kicking off. We were an exception because James Foug was exceptionally talented at placing his kicks. We might have reverted back to kicking into the endzone with him graduating. Now we will for sure.
I get that this rule is for safety . Am i being selfish in saying so what? I think this is a dumb rule . Might as well work to kick it throught the end zone each time .
This will be good for teams with great offenses .
One more reason that I cant wait for College Football season .
Rather than onside kicks, I can see an increase in squib/line drive kickoffs that hit at higher velocity and lower trajectory, potentially making it a more difficult ball to control, while also eliminating the possibility of a fair catch.
Same thing I was thinking. Why kick it high & deep? Hell, with this a kick out of bounds is only a 15 yard penalty. Squib it or onside every time. Let's see your guys who don't normally handle the ball figure out how to grab it off a bounce.
I would love to see more squibs. I think probably makes the play more exciting and also less dangerous. Reduces the speed at which the receiving team is moving forward.
You're right this improves the math on onside kicks.
More than that I think we'll see more high and short kicks daring the up backs to field the ball around the 20-30 where a muff is likely to be a turnover. Urban used to do that at BGSU under the old rules; to great effect in a game vs. Toledo I attended way back in the day.
The very good "Alaskan Assassin" WR on BGSU at the time (Cole Magner for early 2000s MAC reverse pass enthusiasts) used to drive around campus in an Escalade FWIW....
This is stupid.
This is moranic
This is asinine.
This is ME
This is brilliant!
(in bizarro land)
As we routinely were placing kickoffs inside the 5 with good hang time and pinning teams inside the 20 to start their possessions.