Member for

6 years
Points
1113.00

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
07/14/2018 - 8:04pm These predictions are all…

These predictions are all coming in because Oregon just got a 4th WR commit and are probably out of the Ford sweepstakes.

05/13/2018 - 1:18pm Eight Men Out involves a lot

Eight Men Out involves a lot of fiction. If you're interested in reading about the scandal I would recommend Burying the Blacksox by Gene Carney.

As far as tools to that show website traffic, I would say no. You will really only get accurate data of that if you have admin access to the website. I know for various websites I own the estimated traffic from tools like semrush or ahrefs aren't even in the same ballpark as what I actually get.

05/11/2018 - 12:15pm All the NCAA has to do is let

All the NCAA has to do is let the players get paid by anybody who wants to pay them. If somebody wants to give a player $500 to sign autographs, let them. If a local business wants to pay a player to be in a commercial, let them. If a rich booster wants to give a player 10 grand, let them. If an agent or apparel company wants to pay a player, let them.

All they have to do is let the players earn money just like every other college student is allowed to. The argument that paying the players will kill off the non-revenue sports is completely invalid. Restricting the players ability to profit off their name and likeness is amoral.

05/06/2018 - 5:28pm Glory of Their Times is the

Glory of Their Times is the best baseball pick IMO.

If you're interested in learning more about some of the advanced stats and the logic behind them, Tom Tangos The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball is a great introduction.

I absolutely follow other teams and players as well as the progress of the Tigers top prospects.

The Angels are a very interesting team to follow, they have the best player in baseball, who has arguably had the best start to a career in MLB history in Mike Trout. The first legitimate two way player in Ohtani, and they have the best deffensive SS in the last 20 years in Simmons.

I've followed the Astros, and especially Verlander as well. It's pretty easy to follow and enjoy watching any great starting pitcher if you like basbeall.

05/05/2018 - 7:54pm I never really was, or saw,

I never really was, or saw, any hazing in high schools. The only thing was as a freshman you'd be tasked with doing the bullshit tasks like getting the water jugs and equipment.

05/05/2018 - 1:16pm Well yeah, he's been bad with

Well yeah, he's been bad with the Angels.

05/01/2018 - 12:57am Miggy is untradeable. The

Miggy is untradeable. The amount of money we'd have to eat to move him would be absurd, no matter how well he hits.

The best bet for our rebuild is that he continues to his, as he has so far this year and does so for the rest of the contract. We're gonna be paying his contract, if he can age well like David Ortiz, that won't be that bad.

04/22/2018 - 11:02pm Teams really only manipulate

Teams really only manipulate service time like that for all-star level prospects. Gerber and Lugo aren't the quality of prospects where you really worry about them getting too expensive, they aren't long term pieces.

04/22/2018 - 10:59pm Yeah, Stewart is a DH only,

Yeah, Stewart is a DH only, and he's not likely to hit well enough to have a big impact there.

Lugo and Gerber can be solid players, but their value will just be when their cheap. They're good as depth players, but players like them are a dime a dozen.

04/22/2018 - 10:55pm The draft position is still

The draft position is still important for the draft pool. The Tigers benefitted from players dropping based on signability before, but the new limits got rid of that. You don't see the best prep pitching arm fall to the 27th spot anymore like Porcello did.

04/22/2018 - 10:50pm They have about three

They have about three position player prospects worth a damn in Rogers, Cameron, and Paredes. They have a few lotto ticket types, but they haven't even reached A ball yet. Stewart and Gerber aren't gonna be more than average. They aren't long term pieces.

04/13/2018 - 10:17pm Teams returned balls that

Teams returned balls that were caught in the end zone, even against Michigan, so they will absolutely still return some balls that are caught at the 5.

As for why, because of the upside. If you fair catch it you'll start at the 25. If you return it, you may get a TD or have a 50 yard return. If you have an elite return man, hes gonna average 25+ yards a return, so on average you will start with better field position than if he fair catches everything. There really isn't that much downside to returning a ball caught at the 2 if you have a good return team or are playing against a bad kickoff coverage team. You're risking maybe 5 yards of field position for the chance to gain a helluva lot more. There will also be situations at the end of half's where teams won't have the time to drive the field and will be more likely to take a chance returning the ball as a result.

Its just like teams in college basketball that slow the pace or shoot a bunch of 3s because they are outmatched. There are different talent levels amongst teams, and kickoff returns give teams a chance to break the game open and crate a double digit point swing. Look at PSU-OSU last year. OSU absolutely dominated that game but only won by one. PSU had one kickoff return for a TD and another 59 yard return that set up a 23 yard TD drive. If they fair catch both they lose that game by 10+, instead they almost pulled it off despite being dominated.

If this new rule has the impact you are suggesting, and everybody just fair catches everything, that would pretty much eliminate the surprise onside kick. Teams would just have their hands team lined up all over the place and the players would never look to block and would just anticipate an onside kick. The surprise kick works because players are mentally getting ready to block somebody on the coverage team. If there are no more returns, they won't have to worry about blocking and will just focus exclusively on the ball.

I couldn't find any stats about the average starting field position on kickoff returns.

04/13/2018 - 7:30pm We did that last year with

We did that last year with Foug, but he's gone. It may or may not hurt us this year.

04/13/2018 - 7:27pm I'm bored and was interested

I'm bored and was interested in this. I'm using the home team model for Expected Point Value based on Big Ten conference games from 2013-2014 found here: http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/big-ten-4th-down-calcu…

The Expected Point Value of 1st & 10 from the 25 is 1.026.

The Expected Point Value of 1st & 10 from the 50 is 2.902.

So from the kicking teams perspective:

-1.026 = 2.902p - 2.902(1-p)

-1.026 = 2.902p -2.902 + 2.902p

1.876 = 5.804p

p = 1.876/5.804 =32%

The breakeven point is recovering 32% of their onside kicks.

The recover rate for non surprise onside kicks is roughly 20%, while it is 60% for surprise onside kicks. 

It is statistically worth it to try for surprise onside kicks, but that has always been the case even before this new rule.

Looking at Michigan last year, they had 32 touchbacks and 37 returns for an average of 15 yards. Being as favorable as possible and assuming the return kicks result in an average field position of 1st & 10 from the 15:

32 X 25 = 800

37 X 15 = 555

1,355/69=19.6

The Expected Point Value of 1st & 10 from the 19 is .5758.

1.026 - .5758 = .4502.

If every return last year now results in a fair catch, Michigan loses 6 yards per kickoff. Their Expected Point Value is -.4502 less per kickoff than last year. Michigan averaged 5 kickoffs a game last year, which would be an Expected Point Value decrease of 2.251 per game. That said, teams are still going to try and return balls, and if your kickoff coverage is elite, you will still gain an advantage here. This is basically the worst case scenario for Michigan and it still only results in a 2.251 decrease in Expected Point Value per game for last season. That's not enough to really change your kickoff strategy dramatically.

Looking at the breakeven point last season for Michigan:

-.5758 = 2.902p - 2.902(1-p)

-.5758 = 2.902p -2.902 + 2.902p

2.3262 = 5.804p

p = 2.3262/5.804 = 40%

So this rule change just means Michigan would have to recover 8% less of their onside kicks to reach the breakeven point, but doesn't change the overall kickoff philosophy. It made sense for the them to try some surprise onside kicks last year, and it still makes sense for them to try surprise onside kicks this year.

TLDR: This rule change does not move the needle from it being worth it to try a surprise onside kick this year vs not being worth it last year. It has always been statistically worth it, it will be even more valuable to do it this year, but you're talking about a difference in Expected Point Value per kickoff of less than 0.5.

It is unlikely this rule change will really have any impact in how teams approach kickoffs.

04/13/2018 - 6:05pm Teams will adjust. If you

Teams will adjust. If you onside it regularly they'll just always have hands team guys at the front line.

Surprise onside kicks are worth it because they are recovered at such a high rate. Non surprise onside kicks are not worth it because they aren't recovered at a high enough rate.

04/13/2018 - 5:57pm They won't sleep if a team

They won't sleep if a team shows a tendency to try an onside even once a game on average, let alone a few times a game.

04/13/2018 - 5:38pm You may see a small uptick in

You may see a small uptick in surprise inside kicks, but that's about it.

And the better your defense is, the less sense it makes to try for an onside kick.

04/07/2018 - 10:37pm https://www.mlb.com/news/why-

https://www.mlb.com/news/why-the-angels-6-man-rotation-wont-last/c-2669…

We'll see how long it last, but it is what they've stated they want to try.

Either way, Ohtanis starts and IP will be limited this year. They may not stick with the six man for long, or even never use it due to injuries, but they'll push some starts for him back and give him extra rest when they can, even more so if he continues to mash.

04/07/2018 - 5:22pm They have stats that take

They have stats that take context into account though. Sounds like you prefer WPA.

04/07/2018 - 4:05pm He has a career K-rate of 35%

He has a career K-rate of 35% and a career slash line of .185/.232/.322.

He couldn't be a DH.

04/07/2018 - 1:49pm The purpose of the stat is

The purpose of the stat is still to determine the overall value an individual player contributes in terms of wins. It's literally the name of the stat.

04/07/2018 - 12:17pm No, they won't.
The whole

No, they won't.

The whole point of WAR is to determine how many additional wins players create for their teams.

04/07/2018 - 12:09pm The Angels are experimenting

The Angels are experimenting with a six man rotation, so he is pitching less than other starters.

04/07/2018 - 12:08pm He could not hang around as a

He could not hang around as a DH.

04/03/2018 - 3:54pm Yeah, I agree. This isn't a

Yeah, I agree. This isn't a particularly good shooting team, 2 of our starters are bad 3 point shooters. Shooting performances over small samples are mostly random, and unfortunately we had bad shooting nights at the worst possible time.

04/03/2018 - 1:05pm It's clearly not though. OP

It's clearly not though. OP has nothing to do with Nova, it's a question of whether our defensive approach had a negative impact on our shooting. It has nothing to do with any one game or any team.

04/03/2018 - 12:27pm Do you think that's relevant

Do you think that's relevant to the OP?

03/21/2018 - 1:10am About whether A&Ms defensive

About whether A&Ms defensive 3P% is just luck or some skill, it's just luck. Their 3P% on the season is 31.9%, good for 22nd best in the country. In conference play it was 36.2%, good for 12th in the SEC.

03/13/2018 - 3:00pm For NFL purposes, he's kinda

For NFL purposes, he's kinda right.

03/03/2018 - 10:34am People sending threats to

People sending threats to recruits isn't a new thing.

02/15/2018 - 2:13pm Don't forget how he said

Don't forget how he said Iowa's starting 5 was top 3 or 4 in the league.

Also, he sounds just like Dan Dakich. When I'm listening to a game that is not announced by Dakich, the last thing I want to hear is Dakich announcing.

02/03/2018 - 6:07pm Yeah, 1-8 on wide open threes

Yeah, 1-8 on wide open threes is bad.

01/24/2018 - 8:57pm Bonds was on track to be a

Bonds was on track to be a top 10 player without roids.

01/23/2018 - 12:33pm They did run one Pepcat play

They did run one Pepcat play against OSU where he was supposed to throw the ball, but they obviously didnt fall for it and it resulted in another 1 yard run.

01/23/2018 - 12:31pm They used him so much more

They used him so much more effectively the year before.

12/19/2017 - 3:10pm He's going to Alabama.

He's going to Alabama.

11/27/2017 - 11:43am Petit-Frere would have a

Petit-Frere would have a solid chance of starting at LT next year.

11/27/2017 - 11:43am Petit-Frere would have a

Petit-Frere would have a solid chance of starting at LT next year.

11/14/2017 - 4:45pm McCaffrey is a better runner

McCaffrey is a better runner than Milton is.

11/14/2017 - 4:44pm McCaffrey is a better runner

McCaffrey is a better runner than Milton is.

11/14/2017 - 4:44pm McCaffrey is a better runner

McCaffrey is a better runner than Milton is.

11/07/2017 - 1:48am https://youtu.be/ZPm8uYfVtiw

https://youtu.be/ZPm8uYfVtiw

Looks different to me.

11/02/2017 - 3:31pm There's some overlap, but a

There's some overlap, but a lot of different material covered. Sam and scout provided more inside Intel on the actual team than 247 did.

11/02/2017 - 3:29pm Still upset about the OSU

Still upset about the OSU writer fuck up?

10/11/2017 - 11:33pm Holland didn't qualify for

Holland didn't qualify for the WC.

10/09/2017 - 2:11pm Our TEs aren't good blockers,

Our TEs aren't good blockers, so they really don't help there. Running heavy sets makes it harder on the Oline because it results in the defense putting 8 guys in the box.

Use the TEs, yeah, but split at least one of them out wide.

08/08/2017 - 11:59am Barnett got a Bama offer

Barnett got a Bama offer after he worked out at their camp. Michigan wanted him to work out at their before offering, but he didn't.

08/06/2017 - 3:15am Llyod Carr pulled a couple of

Llyod Carr pulled a couple of 5 stars out of Louisiana in the 90s.

07/18/2017 - 3:50pm This. Trade players you

This. Trade players you aren't gonna resign only. Keep the rest and rebuild on the fly. The Tigers aren't the A's we don't need to tank to build a winner.

07/02/2017 - 6:42pm That's not how trade value

That's not how trade value works.