Persistent Underachievement, Part I
This is a two-part diary. Part I explore the problem. Part II explores solutions, because my college professor taught me that it's okay to complain if you offer ideas and effort to improve the situation. There is a TL;DR at the bottom.
We live in a world that seems to be dominated by absolutists. Many folks out there brand you a traitor if you criticize the person/group you supposedly support, and others believe that once something goes wrong, it's okay to abandon your alliances. Any mistake is worthy of permanent banishment and disassociation. Any constructive commentary is tantamount to an attempted coup. To all these people I say:
This next part is important, because I'm going to be attacked by both sides of the ridiculous spectrum. So please, read this even if you ignore the rest: I support Jim Harbaugh as our Head Coach. I support the University of Michigan and its football team. I am a fan, and I am not abandoning my team, my coaches, or my players. I am fully aware of the challenges and limitations our roster presents, and don't expect this year's version to be Michigan's most successful team.
I'm also a rational human being. There are deep, systemic problems with our offense that go way beyond youth and inexperience. For those of you saying, "just wait until we have experienced players in our offense, we'll be fine," you are ignoring the data, the eye test, and the reality that if we are not careful, medicore is going to start to look pretty damn good. Here's your picture:
Misery Comparison
When things are bad, perspective is important. Are we really the bowler-hat-dog sitting in hell, or are we just irrational fans? To this end, hard data helps us uncover bias. Data is never perfect, but it is a good place to start to see if we can trust our eyes.
Michigan's offense is currently ranked #85 in S&P+. For comparison's sake, Buffalo is one spot ahead of us. Nebraska is #73. Purdue #69. And here's my favorite: Flordia is #81. Our offense is worse than Florida's. Please let that sink in.
Don't like fancystats? I can sympathize. Those damn things never seem to predict accurately. So how about this statistic: our yards per play (5.17) is Michigan's worst performance since 2008. Yep, the 2014 sludgefart mustered 5.32. Borges cranked out 5.44 YPP in his final season. And we have yet to face the #6 (Wisconsin), #7 (Ohio State) S&P+ defenses. Granted, we've already done battle with #3 (Michigan Staee) and Penn State was #9, but we also had the pleasure of facing #93 (Cincinnati) and #109 (Air Force) defenses--the lowest ranked future opponent is Maryland at #77, and everyone else is #33 or higher. It's not going to get easier.
Our rushing game is bad. The current 4.08 YPC is our lowest since 2013--the 27 for 27 year (which wasn't even our worst rushing performance). We are ranked #41 in S&P+ in rushing.
Our passing game is much, much worse. We are #74 (which feels high) in S&P+ and convert only 32.4% of our third downs. Guess when we last had a lower conversion rate? Yep. 2008.
But what about the youth argument? Well, we are ranked 99th in returning offensive production. Let's give ourselves even more handicap since we lost our starting QB, and let's compare with our peers. West Virginia is ranked #123 in returning production. Their offense is #5 in S&P+. Ohio State was ranked #122 last year, their offense finished the season at #23. Clemson is #121 this year. Heck, even Nebraska is ranked #127 in returning production, and is out-performing our offense. Getting the picture?
It's impossible to argue that Michigan performing up to the level of their talent, and that is what is troubling. It's not that our offense is "not great," we are horrible. And no, saying that does not mean I'm not a Michigan fan.
If we want to build a strong, successful program, we need to make some radical changes on offense.
Specific Objections
Hopefully, the previous section has at least convinced you that there is a problem that goes beyond the simple and lazy explanation of youth. But what about other quips from the lemmings that say our problems are all the result of inexperience?
- Harbaugh has a proven track record. This is 100% true, and it's why I still want him to be Michigan's coach. That said, he's never been this bad. His third year at Stanford--with considerably less talent--his offense was #6 in S&P+. Did he get lucky with some recruiting hits? Yes. But it's a long, long, long way from #6 to #85. In fact, he was even better in his first year at Stanford--#83. That was with a roster that only compares to this year's Michigan roster in that they had the same number of players. At the 49ers he led the #18 most efficient offense his first season, #5 his second season, and #8 his third. Even the year that got him fired, 2014 (LOL 49ers), his offense was #16. Middle-of-the-pack. And that's with the parity of the NFL--he has huge advantages over most competitors at Michigan. It's also worth pointing out that his offenses have looked very different as his OCs have changed--the argument that it's "his offense" is only very partially true. Stanford played the same brand of manball they're currently playing, and the 49ers ran a different version and adapted to their QB. Michigan's offense that past two years was very different from this season's version.
- We are a pro-style team. This is simply false. If you mean that we operate largely from under center and use TEs and FBs, I guess that's true. But there is not one team in the NFL running an offense that even remotely resembles Michigan's constipated turd. If you're making this claim, do you even watch the NFL? It's largely a spread league now, and even the more manbally teams use more misdirection, more spread/match-up concepts, and more quick passes than Michigan does. No, we are not a pro-style offense, unless your definition stopped keeping up with the league in 1997.
- There is nothing we can do with this roster. This is another absurd assertion. No one was expecting Michigan to win the CFP this year (well, almost no one) but everyone should expect a competitive offense, no matter how young we are. We are making basic strategic blunders. Our pass protection is bad. It is known. And yet, we persist with 7-step drop passing plays with deep and slow-developing routes as our only options. We leave RBs that can't block in the backfield to block, instead of turning them into hot reads and safety valves. We max protect with our TEs--our best match-ups in the passing game. We hardly ever run slants. We don't isolate our athletes in space. Our version of misdirection is 1980's play action--we don't use motion, deception, or gadgetry even as much as we did the past two seasons. Yes, the roster is limited. No, it's not nearly as bad as its #85 ranking. And let's remember that last year's loaded roster only produced the #40 offense. And it's scheme was miles ahead of this year's version. Which brings me to...
- Our scheme is fine. First question: what scheme? Try to tell me this team's identity. Try to identify the carryover plays from the previous two years. College football is a vastly different game than the NFL. The hash marks allow offenses to create mismatches in an entirely different manner, and misdirection and trickery are far more effective. Our offense seems to ignore those principles, opting for plays that require 11-man execution instead of match-up plays. Penn State did not run an innovative offense on Saturday--they ran their offense with minor tweaks. They ran the same plays over and over and over again, with repeated success. And their plays created mismatches, allowed the QB to get rid of the ball quickly (even the fade routes were thrown early), and maximized their talent. This year's Michigan team has no scheme. We run zone and power in the ground game, and neither looks polished. The passing game makes no sense. Our constraint plays are 20-year-old play action fakes. There is no imagination, and there is nothing to hang our hat on.
TL;DR
This offense is dramatically underachieving. Having better players would help, but being a year better will not take us from inept to elite, and that's the jump we need to make. Part II will explore ways out of this mess.
October 25th, 2017 at 6:08 AM ^
Because he has a cool name and is from the NFL
October 24th, 2017 at 4:33 PM ^
Wish I could upvote this more than once.
October 23rd, 2017 at 9:22 PM ^
I'm not sure about the frustration part.
That picture is probably from the Gameday interview with the trio from this weekend.
October 23rd, 2017 at 9:42 PM ^
Yeah that's the source
October 23rd, 2017 at 9:13 PM ^
You hit the nail on the head, well written, great breakdown.
October 23rd, 2017 at 9:18 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 9:23 PM ^
I agree with the original post, especially the last point about offensive identity. However, I am not ready to conclude the assistant coaches (or Harbaugh for that matter) who have done well on other teams have suddenly turned into idiots for some inexplicable reason.
I have questions about how the offensive coaching staff is organized. Who's in charge of or accountable for, well, anything? Harbaugh made some very unconventional coaching assignments for this season: a passing game coordinator, a running game coordinator (in fact I think one of those has two co-coordinators if I remember correctly), a position coach for C and G only, a different position coach for T and TE; overall he reshuffled most of the position coach assignments. Jay Harbaugh is the RB coach, which is his third different position group in three seasons. This might be really creative and if it had worked could have revolutionized offensive football. This season, it feels like the coaching staff is the guys from the Big Bang Theory and they have so many "good ideas" they never get around to teaching the players to do anything well. I have to wonder who has the big picture on offense? Who decided to run (without any sense of urgency) in the first half of the MSU game, when the weather was good, we were behind, and we knew a monsoon would arrive in the second half? Who decided switching to a pass offense after the monsoon arrived was a good idea? Why was John O'Korn so woefully unprepared to run the offense with two weeks to prepare?
So, I don't think we need to clean house with offensive assistant coaches. But, I would like Jim to take a long, hard look at the choices he made this season, and consider switching to a more conventional assignment of responsibilities, with coaches taking on position groups they have coached well before. For example, Jay should be the TE coach; in his first season they were a revelation, and not just Jake Butt. If Jim wants to keep his hand in on the offensive side, and be the head coach, pick one. Either be the QB position coach, or take on the play-calling responsibilities of the offensive coordination. But for the love of God, don't try to do all three; not even Jim can attack with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind more than 24 hours/day.
October 24th, 2017 at 12:08 AM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 6:34 AM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 9:27 PM ^
so in summary, fire jaybaugh?
just kidding. that said, it seems like the RBs can't block worth a damn.
October 23rd, 2017 at 9:31 PM ^
No offense, but I don't need any fancy statistics to tell me how bad our offense is. I watch them and they suck so bad it's hard to watch even despite my love affair with this team. The question is not how bad we suck. Knowing what we know about how good of a coach Harbaugh is and his track record of success, the question is 1) why do we suck so bad and 2) how does he fix it?
October 23rd, 2017 at 9:33 PM ^
This is a great assessment of the current issues facing Michigan right now. I disagree as far as recognizing the scheme, but they did have to flip it mid-season. Lots of zone with some power mixed in. Now, it seems to be more power with some zone. That counter draw has been in the playbook for it seems like three years now.
Ultimately, the issue with Michigan is that they don't have a QB. Switch QBs last Saturday and what happens? Yes, PSU still has Barkley, but imagine Michigan with 9 in the box, daring a QB like O'Korn to throw. Wait, you don't have to imagine. It's been every game unti this one. Look at the Indiana game last week. DPJ toasts the Indiana secondary. O'Korn overthrows him.
In college, you need somebody who can at least threaten the defense via either the run or the pass. O'Korn isn't dangerous enough as a runner to cause defenses to worry about him. So, if you wonder why Evans looks like trash this year, it's because the OL has to a) execute perfectly to open up holes and b) those holes are immediately filled by safeties playing nine yards deep.
Yes, there's been a lack of a variety in the offense. I'm not sure how much of that is the younger talent out there and how much is Pep replacing Fisch. Remember that double fake FB screen in the MSU game from 2015? What happened to those plays that got people crazy wide open.
October 23rd, 2017 at 9:34 PM ^
I said largely the same thing, with fewer stats, yesterday. I also thought Michigan was 89th rather than 85th in S and P. Waves joyful flag. I agree that Michigan needs to run more misdirection, take advantage of the hashes to stretch the field horizontally and then vertically. I also agree that blaming youth and OLine recruiting is taking it too far when Michigan is 85th overall. Something is rotten in Denmark.
And no, it doesn't mean I think Harbaugh has lost his mind. But it does mean that the system they installed this year has been an eyesore. The best thing I saw last game was the small McDoom package that took advantage of his quickness stretching the field horizontally. Fake it the third time around, then try and hook up on something Deep to DPJ or a tight end running underneath. Again, I know it's all much harder than that. However, we're 85th in offense and a Power 5 team. Probably need to think about digging a new hole for that well.
October 23rd, 2017 at 10:02 PM ^
Finally, a clear statement of what's been jumbling in my head! Thanks for this great write-up!!
October 23rd, 2017 at 11:15 PM ^
October 23rd, 2017 at 11:29 PM ^
West Virginia's top three receivers are: Junior, Senior, Junior.
Ohio State: Sophomore, Junior, Junior
Nebraska: Junior, Sophomore, Senior
Only Nebraska has a roster with upper classmen recruited by a different coach, and in that case an argument could be made that the previous coach was better than the current, and cretainly better than Hoke.
Find me an offense where coach's players are only sophomores, the previous coach cratered the offense, and the starting QB and top receiver are out for the season.
October 24th, 2017 at 7:15 AM ^
a valid excude for having the no. 45 offense. It is not a vlaaid excuse for the no. 99 offense.
Youth/injuries are a problem. But OP is correct. Scheme, game plans, play selection are a huge factor too.
October 23rd, 2017 at 11:41 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 12:01 AM ^
So, in short, the problem is Pep.
October 24th, 2017 at 12:21 AM ^
That used to buy something of demonstrable value. And not that long ago.
October 24th, 2017 at 8:32 AM ^
What else could it be?
Switching to a Frey inside zone running game was bad the first few games, but they seemed to have picked it up and they are running power again.
Passing game sucks ass.
October 24th, 2017 at 12:19 AM ^
Excellent breakdown. Very interested in seeing part II
October 24th, 2017 at 1:06 AM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 5:15 AM ^
We HAVE to have a better OL, and a better qb.
It's that simple.
October 24th, 2017 at 6:39 AM ^
We had a historically good team last year for Michigan. Top 2 defense in the country, we put up 40 points per game, good enough for 11th in the country. Best performance on offense since the early 90s, maybe longer in terms of points per game. Yes we run up the score, but it was the same offense. Last year the problem wasn't so much the offensive gameplans as much as the execution. I think that's the problem still.
People shouldn't be surprised. It's a rebuilding team, returning 5 starters the fewest in the country. We're replacing most of the offense and almost all of the defense with ultra talented players, but there are some average players out there too. It shows. We were screwed the moment Speight went down. He wasn't elite, but he is better than the other options at this point. The OL is not good and but is not overwhelming their opponents with their talent. We're not at the level people expect. Fine. We were never going to compete for the playoffs this year. We're not there, we probably will not be there next year either.
The loss to MSU was painful. The loss to Penn State was expected. We'll beat Rutgers and probably win vs. Minn and Maryland (on the road though, I don't expect much). If you're expecting wins vs. wisconsin or OSU, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. Hopefully, we'll end up 8-4. It's what you should expect when a team that returned 5 starters had their QB knocked out for the season.
October 24th, 2017 at 7:20 AM ^
So you think youth/injuries is a valid excuse for having the no. 85 offense in the nation?
OP did a nice job de-bunking this idea.
October 24th, 2017 at 6:07 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 7:18 PM ^
the same coaches as in 2016. Fisch and Wheatley are gone. Pep is in.
October 24th, 2017 at 6:59 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 7:40 AM ^
Most UM fans have been thinking he's the Michigan version of Bear Bryant coming home to Alabama, but he could just as easily turn out to be our version of Johnny Majors coming home to Tennessee.
October 24th, 2017 at 8:56 AM ^
plays the role of Phil Fulmer on the current Michigan staff?
October 24th, 2017 at 9:37 AM ^
Good question... Fulmer was long-time UT OL/OC under Majors, but I have a hard time envisioning Drevno pulling it off.
So Greg Frey?
October 24th, 2017 at 1:35 PM ^
story is the Fulmer (then an assistant) negotiated with the AD to remove Majors when Majors was recovering from a heart attack.
October 24th, 2017 at 8:29 AM ^
The offensive output was exceeding the talent that was on the roster in 2015 and 2016. This year, the offense is clunky and uncreative. It was like that before Speight got knocked out against Purdue, so I don't think O'Korn is the primary problem (although, his play hasn't helped).
Something happened this off season that dramatically altered how the offense operates. It has to be a disruption with Pep, Drevno and Harbaugh. I'm predicting that Pep, Drev or both will be gone after the season is over (i know, not a bold hot take).
October 24th, 2017 at 10:56 AM ^
Get rid of Pep now and Harbaugh take over all playcalling.
October 24th, 2017 at 10:24 AM ^
One thing I like about the college game is the strategic aspect of planning around extremely variable talent pools. I'm sure I don't know more about that than Harbaugh, but I'm very interested to hear what ideas people come up with.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:04 AM ^
Was listening to Marcus on the M Zone yesterday. He says people misunderstand what pro-style means, saying that it is not related to the NFL/pros. However, in all of the Googling I did, it says it IS an offense that closely resembles that played by NFL. I am confused.
October 24th, 2017 at 12:13 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 2:25 PM ^
the mobile QB. Doesn't have to be a true running QB in a read option, but one that can scramble and keeps plays alive. Just seems to pay big dividends in college these days.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:05 AM ^
I take exception with some of this. First of all in JH's 3rd year at Stanford he had Andrew Luck and Toby Gerhart in his backfield. His OL had guys like David Decastro and Jonathan Martin. That's a little different than JOK and Higdon. Second of all his offense at Stanford was the exact same thing he ran in the NFL. He was one of the only coaches to use multiple TE's and FB's. Greg Roman came with him from Stanford to SF and he ran most of the same stuff.
I agree that they definitely need to use more misdirection/motion and be more creative. I am in love with the Chiefs offense and have been advocating for running something similiar. I also think this level of suck is inexcusable and hiring Frey and Pep were mistakes because now we don't know if we are a zone team or a gap team. It's a hodge podge of ideas and concepts.
No excuses for next year as its put up or shut up time.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:49 AM ^
The only real disagreement I have with the post is that your comparisions to other historically bad offensive Michigan teams (2008 and 2014) are complete data sets and this year's data is 60% of a season. This is not to say that the offense will get much better, but as a young team I do expect there to be more improvement by end of year. I really wouldn't be surprised if they manage 60th or so in S&P+, which would put them about halfway between where they are now and where they finished last year (somewhere in the 40's).
In terms of OL scheme (and I realize this is not an original thought) it seems we wasted a lot of time in the offseason trying to become an inside zone team. When that didn't work out through the first 4 games, we then wasted probably all of the bye week(s) working on more iso/gap schemes instead of fine tuning and adding wrinkles to the offense. Again not an original thought, but I think the lack of "creative playcalling" is actually more "unable to execute basics."
In addition, putting Ulizio at RT and hoping he didn't become a black hole has also horribly backfired. In retrospect, going Cole/Runyan/Kugler/Onwenu/Bredeson might have a lower ceiling but it probably (maybe?) would have a higher floor, especially at this point in the season. Having to pull Ulizio in the 2nd Q of the MSU game after you had 2 weeks to reshuffle the line (which they did last year in the bye week after the Newsome injury) is by far the biggest coaching blunder of the year. You have 4 games of data showing this guy can't block anyone in pass pro and you have a guy that is a better run blocker and no worse at pass pro in JBB and you wait to make that change mid game following a bye? It may seem trivial in the big scheme but this is the type of error I don't expect a highly paid coaching staff like this to make.
Regarding the passing game, with the lack of experience at WR we probably needed a good, dedicated WR coach instead of a passing game coordinator this year. I think this slowed the progress of some of the younger WR's significantly. I'm pretty sure another assistant becomes available early next year due to some rules changes that were voted on earlier this year, and while there may be some other position coach shuffling I would be suprised if we don't have a WR coach next year.
This leads me to my last point - I really think there is one too many cooks in the offensive kitchen. As many have stated before me, this offense lacks "flow" (cohesion, purpose, identity, pick one) and it almost looks like guys are taking turns calling plays. When MSU was a disaster of a team last year, their "co-coordinator" structure was part of why they managed 3-9 with a team that was really 6-6 or 7-5 in terms of actual talent. They shifted some responsibilities around in the offseason, which I personally thought was akin to re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but the results have obviously improved.
October 24th, 2017 at 12:52 PM ^
You can make an argument that when Cole and Kugler leave, and a tire fire at RT, that the O-line could be worse than this year. Now I don't think that will be the case, but why exactly should we expect improvement on the line?? New LT, New RT, new C.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:15 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 4:58 PM ^
isnt tht they lost..I could live with losing to the #2 team in the nation on the road at night..its that they were NOT competitive..out played outcoached out hustled out Everythinged...
October 24th, 2017 at 5:16 PM ^
To compare Osu's "young" offense last year to Michigan's this year is not a true comparison. The folks that didn't contribute for Osu the year prior and then started playing, were high star recruits, some of those that may be been non-contriburtors but then started on the line as, like a redshirt junior.
Michigan's 3rd, 4th, and 5th year offensive players were not high recruits. To say they should be better than Buffalo is a bit misleading. Even if the fancy stats "accounts" for SoS of Buffalo, it isn't so precise that it can be taken literally with no context.
Before the 2016 season started, many people thought this was going to be a worse year than last year. Can't say I'm thrilled, but I'm not is some state of panic or think that I have observations that would be useful to the coaching staff.
October 24th, 2017 at 5:29 PM ^
Harbaugh's offense is out of touch with football reality, either as the game is played by amateurs or pros? And, this despite continual connection with the game for the entiety of his life as college quarterback to career coach who took a team to the Super Bowl and with a composite record over the last five years that would rival the best in pro or college football?
This, is a remarkable observation, indeed. Winning 10 games a season is not good enough when you set the bar higher for expectation based on that achievement or simply beat all the usual suspects. Fuck that. Winning is hard.
One could say he has overacheived based on your evidence of medicocrity in creativity and offensive development, or one could say based on his record, that in spite of failed creative ingenuity in the way others now play, he has managed to succeed at the hightest level.
The trouble at Michigan is the people who support and love the program judge every game and performance as if winning is only a byproduct of a higher achievement in how you are evaluated by the accomplishment of the achievement. Everyone competes. Winning is a matter of degree when you are the winningest program of all time. You are measuring your best performance against yourself because everyone wants what you've already achieved.
Yeah excellence and perfection are the goals of every game, win and season. Not gonna get there all the time even if the gap in response is longer than desired. When did the Tigers last win a pennant or WS? When did the Red Wings last win the Stanley Cup, or God Forgive, the Lions do anything?
You know, greatness in achievement and program history is a function of great achievement, great character and great luck. Maybe 1997 exhausted a lot of that going forward. But I feel better as a Michigan fan with this regime in place to move ahead than at any time since Lloyd Carr, whose teams were routinely critiized for the same shit.
October 24th, 2017 at 5:40 PM ^
I wish this was inaccurate, but alas, I cannot find fault with it.
October 24th, 2017 at 9:23 PM ^
This is an excellent diary- Ron has a strong head for the key numbers that cut through the haze of arguments.
But Ron- your talent is really wasted on this website. People here don't want to hear what you are saying, they want to believe that our problems are being caused by the less than 20% of the Hoke kids left or some conspiracy of officials.
Nobody even wonders about how stupid the Hoke recruiting class argument is or how, if it is true, it shows that JH can't recruit worth shit- if his kids still can't beat out Hoke's "terrible" recruits for starting spots.
Don't waste your time with Part 2- nobody wants to hear anything but what makes them feel good. and that JH is takin' them to the promsed land.
Comments