Zach Shaw's analytic case for John O'Korn
I liked the way he describes "on-target rate" and "improvisation plays." Beats a superficial look at completion percentage, which can underrate how a QB performs under duress. An excerpt below. Full article here: http://michigan.247sports.com/Article/Replay-Takeaways-No-8-Michigan-28-Purdue-10-football-film-review-107984685
First, O’Korn was exceptionally accurate for a backup quarterback. His on-target rate (see previous versions of this story for more on this) was 22 for 29 (75.9 percent), and he targeted 10 different receivers. While a couple throws waffled, both figures are better than Speight has done this season, and show that O’Korn has the ability to play like a starter beyond potential beginner’s luck.
But as I watched, another development arose that could bode well for Michigan. I pegged O’Korn as 7 for 8 on-target in what I will call “improvisation plays.” These are when the play broke down, the pocket collapsed or something else happened that forced O’Korn to work on his feet. That’s an incredible rate at which he can find someone open under duress, and might not be sustainable. But O’Korn’s improvisation kept Purdue’s defense honest, got more players involved in the passing game, and allowed the Wolverines to solidify momentum in the second half.
While this story is not meant to focus on intangibles, O’Korn’s dodgy approach may have rallied the offense around him. Having seen the previous games on film as well, a rewatch of Saturday looked like a sports movie after the coach tells his struggling team to just have fun or return to their roots in the championship game.
September 25th, 2017 at 11:24 PM ^
JOK also seemed to get that big, athletic TEs are a QB's best friend. Forever and always.
September 25th, 2017 at 11:26 PM ^
Speight is mentally broken. Until that is fixed, O'Korn must play.
September 25th, 2017 at 11:35 PM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 6:10 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 10:37 AM ^
Basing my opinion on how the 2nd defender hit Wilt. It looked more like a spinal injury. As they showed Wilton walking off the field it looked like he kept his spinal column from rotating as much as he could...soft tissue could be his Intervertebral dics, as they are like jelly doughnuts...
September 26th, 2017 at 9:21 AM ^
So he's had a concussion since the 4th quarter at Iowa last year? Cuz he has been a completely different QB since then. Hope he recovers and can do a grad transfer next year but I'd rather see O'Korn for the remainder of the season.
September 26th, 2017 at 9:33 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 3:43 PM ^
I had thought it was an injured shoulder then he had surgery on over the offseason from Iowa?
September 26th, 2017 at 2:48 AM ^
100%
He's forcing plays, not throwing the ball away, fumbling hand-offs, yelling at Harbaugh to go for two-point conversion in the 1st quarter of the first game of the season against Harbaugh, then subsequently threw 2 pick-6's...
I'm not totally sure why, but something does seem off. His injury was his non-throwing shoulder, so that seems unlikely.
My initial guess, after Florida, was that he just doesn't have the MASSIVE seniority that the team had last year, in Smith, Butt, Chesson, Darboh, Kalis, Braden, Magnuson, etc. and then on the other side of the ball, it's even greater, Clark, Wormley, Glasgow, Godin, Stribling, Thomas, Lewis, Charlton, Gedeon, D. Hill, and Peppers.
My only guess is that when that amount of leadership and seniority departs, there's no way you can avoid feeling that absence. And with all the Fr. and So. being in so many and several key positions, I can't help but feel that a) there simply is a leadership gap by comparison (how can there not be?), and b) Speight is trying to make up for it all on his own, by NEVER throwing the ball away, NEVER taking a clean sack (a factor in why he got injured, in addition to it being a cheap-shot AND late), and for some reason, struggling to throw very easy, makeable, passes to wide-open receivers.
Which seems sort of out of character as I remember Speight spelling Rudock @ Minnesota, after Rudock went down, and he was cool as a cucumber, and Harbaugh specifically praised his ability to be level-headed at all times.
Only time will tell.
But I am super excited to see what O'Korn can do!
Especially as teams now have MUCH less tape when scouting our current starting QB!
September 26th, 2017 at 1:06 PM ^
I seem him refusing, afraid, whatever, to pull the trigger. Before he was hurt on Saturday, there were at least three times where he looked right at an open receiver, wouldn't let the ball go, and then had to scramble or get sacked. My son and I rewound the Tivo and watched over and over, and in slow-mo. That's why I upvoted the "mentally broken" comment. I am convinced that Speight's problems are between his ears. It's like he got caught in the jetwash, spun out, Goose died, and now he can't engage.
September 26th, 2017 at 3:17 PM ^
The mental aspect, ability to slow down the game, that was always Speight's edge over O'Korn. Without that, JOK is just a better athlete and as of Purdue he was throwing a better ball to guys who were open. Plus I like what's motivating O'Korn. He's got 8 or 9 games left in his career.
September 26th, 2017 at 10:17 AM ^
an expert in Speight's mental and emotional makeup, so I'll just take your word for it, mr internet guy.
I doubt O'Korn would play just because he's better than Speight. It's totally because of Speight's mental make up
September 26th, 2017 at 11:29 AM ^
to make sure his hair is all pretty!
September 25th, 2017 at 11:34 PM ^
September 25th, 2017 at 11:41 PM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 6:32 AM ^
the offensive play calling in the 2nd half was very different in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.
A lot more passing on 1st and 2d down, empty sets, intermediate instead of over the top pass targets in the 2nd half.
O'Korn played really well. But it is also true that there were some serious half time adjustments in the offensive play calling.
I for one hope that Drevno/Hamilton/Harbaugh will use that approach from the start against Sparty.
September 26th, 2017 at 8:55 AM ^
So you're insinuating that they would have made the same adjustments, and Speight would have put up the same numbers as JOK? I believe the adjustments were made because of the QB they now had in the game.
September 28th, 2017 at 12:20 PM ^
I did not insinuate anything.
What I am saying is that two things changed. The QB and the offensive play calling.
I did not say anything or insinuate anything about Speight.
But I will say that O'Korn played very well. I'll also say that the play calling on offense against UC, AF, and the first half against Purdue was terrible.
No matter who the QB may be, they won't perform to their top ability if M returns to that sort of play calling.
The willingness to pass on 1st and 2nd down, use more emply sets, intermediate passing to TE and crossing routes was crucial in the 2nd half offensive production.
September 26th, 2017 at 11:19 AM ^
September 25th, 2017 at 11:45 PM ^
I agree completely. While I have not reviewed every one of Wilton's passes, my feeling is that since the florida game he has either thrown long or to the side behind the line of scrimmage. Very few over the middle or intermediate routes.
September 26th, 2017 at 12:05 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 2:05 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 8:07 AM ^
but very few to anyone else. Throws to the TEs would be less dangerous, so I don't think a fear of interceptions explains it. My theory is his first read was usually downfield to a WR, 2nd read was usually Perry and he rarely went past that. Last year that second read was most often Jake Butt and his first reads were open more frequently.
September 26th, 2017 at 8:07 AM ^
but very few to anyone else. Throws to the TEs would be less dangerous, so I don't think a fear of interceptions explains it. My theory is his first read was usually downfield to a WR, 2nd read was usually Perry and he rarely went past that. Last year that second read was most often Jake Butt and his first reads were open more frequently.
September 26th, 2017 at 8:07 AM ^
but very few to anyone else. Throws to the TEs would be less dangerous, so I don't think a fear of interceptions explains it. My theory is his first read was usually downfield to a WR, 2nd read was usually Perry and he rarely went past that. Last year that second read was most often Jake Butt and his first reads were open more frequently.
September 26th, 2017 at 7:39 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 2:29 PM ^
I agree with all of the above. I wouldn't say Speight's mentally broken, but throwing a pick-six and a half and fumbling in the biggest situation at OSU and then having that all repeat itself against Florida--I wouldn't be very confident either.
September 26th, 2017 at 2:55 AM ^
Both of which are attributable to young and inexperienced players on offense.
September 26th, 2017 at 5:53 AM ^
We were only beating Cincinnati by 3 points late into the 3rd and Air Force by 6 into the 4th - do you really think we've been holding back offensively risking an upset with vanilla plays?
September 26th, 2017 at 3:18 PM ^
Amazing how the play calling and run game open up when the QB is hitting open receivers.
September 25th, 2017 at 11:52 PM ^
Zero camera men were harmed by O'Korn's throws.
September 26th, 2017 at 12:47 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 10:00 AM ^
I have a sinking feeling that Tacopants may seek a grad transfer if this trend continues
September 26th, 2017 at 2:44 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 12:07 AM ^
Harbaugh's appearance on the Rich Eisen show earlier made it sound like Speight is still the starter so long as he's healthy. To me that's a mistake and is puzzling given the meritocracy the team preaches. Perhaps I misinterpreted his comments, but I find the coach's attachment to Speight a little unnerving.
September 26th, 2017 at 12:12 AM ^
Despite all the talk of meritocracy, Harbaugh strikes me as a very stubborn man.
September 26th, 2017 at 1:05 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 1:15 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 1:35 AM ^
Speight will have aged a little when he's healthy enough to return.
September 26th, 2017 at 1:10 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 2:05 AM ^
How is he motivating his players by saying there's no QB competition?
September 26th, 2017 at 2:31 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 2:56 AM ^
I'd say it's more 50-50. RBs seem to have been "best man up", same with WRs and TEs, with underclassmen getting many more reps than their Senior counterparts (wasn't Wheatly Jr. a 5-star???). Grant Newsome was in above MANY upper-classmen until his injury.
And it was planned to get O'Korn a few series in the Florida game (Jim had told the news-reporters, but it was meant to be a secret, which they didn't report on, faithfully, until after the game).
And Harbaugh doesn't hesitate for a second to switch players form LB to FB, or WR to DB, constantly looking for the best-fit.
So I'd say, he absolutely believes and practices his meritocracy.
It's unwise to take anything in its absolute, of course, but I would argue that Harbaugh seems to adhere to his meritocracy far more than any coach I can remember, from seeing who gets starts/snaps from week to week, and least it seems to me.
September 26th, 2017 at 1:53 AM ^
I mean he isn't going to publicly say that Speight is done after getting injured. I feel like that would be disrespectful to Speight. I would be surprised if JOK wasn't starting. His passes were crisper, he can move in the pocket, and he makes better reads.