Expectations and Emotionally Satisfying Wins

Expectations and Emotionally Satisfying Wins

Submitted by Kevin Holtsberry on January 3rd, 2018 at 1:07 PM

As we continue to work through another ugly ending of the season for Michigan football, I thought I would explore an area I think contributes to the anger, disappointment and even ennui for fans.  Trying to find reasonable expectations and the impact of emotional wins.

The expectations game has been debated to death on the site, so I am not going to rehash that in detail.  Instead, I wanted to explore how emotionally satisfying wins help temper expectations and how Michigan's lack of such wins is in a significant way driving so much of the unhappiness.

My argument is basically that winning rivalry games and other high-profile games builds a reserve of goodwill that can be drawn on in tough times thus balancing out some of the fan dissatisfaction as a program has its natural ups and downs.

For example, Ohio State has had some inexplicable losses (Iowa 2017, Michigan State 2015) and some bad ones (Clemson 2016), but they have a National Championship, have dominated Michigan, and have 8 total losses in Urban Meyer's tenure. Michigan State had a disastrous year in 2016, but beat Michigan and Penn State and won their bowl game handily.  This overshadows losses to ND, Northwestern and an embarrassing loss to Ohio State.  Penn State had heartbreaking losses to Ohio State and Michigan State but won 11 games and ended with a win.

We do need to take a few minutes to discuss the expectations that should set the context for our discussion. If you thought Harbaugh was going to step in and bring Michigan to the level of Urban Meyer or Nick Saban in three years, I can't help you.  A cursory glance at the record of the schools for the last ten years would disabuse you of this notion.  Ohio State has been playing in title games and winning conference championships.  In contrast, even before RichRod and Hoke, Michigan lost 3-5 games with regularity.

Since 2000 Ohio State has averaged 2.27 losses a year while Michigan has averaged 4.22. So that should temper expectations.  Ohio State has consistently been better than Michigan for a couple of decades and the last five have been dominant. Urban Meyer has never lost more than 2 games at OSU.

And the program that Harbaugh inherited was not exactly trending upward.  RichRod had three consecutive losing seasons.  Hoke started great (11-2), had a season remarkably like this year (8-5 with a bowl loss to SC), before two losing seasons.  The two coaches prior to Harbaugh were a combined 41-35. 

And going back to Lloyd Carr things were not at Meyer or Saban levels.  Carr’s tenure at Michigan averages out to roughly 9-3. Obviously, the 1997 season stands out as the high point and the ending of the 2006 season as the start of the slide to mediocrity and below.  Heck, Bo’s record is basically 9-2 with a losing record (5-12) in bowl games and no national titles.

This background indicates that in his first three years Harbaugh has brought Michigan back to what it was in the 90s and early 2000s.  I would argue what he hasn’t achieved is some emotionally satisfying wins that would make this accomplishment FEEL better to Michigan fans.  This recap of recent history may seem redundant for fans but bear with me.

2015

Harbaugh’s first season started out with a tough but in many ways understandable loss to Utah but then won five games by a combined score of 160-14.  The next game, however, was the heartbreaking and maddening loss to Michigan State.  The Wolverines won the next four games including a goal line stand to win against Minnesota, an OT win against Indiana, and a sold 28-16 win against Penn State in Happy Valley.  After a blowout loss to Ohio State in the Big House, Michigan thumped Florida 41-7 in the Gator Bowl.

Despite the pattern of painful losses to rivals, Harbaugh first season brought some emotional satisfaction. Ten wins and a blowout bowl win felt like a great start.  Plus, the wins against Minnesota and Indiana provided some excitement and confidence that Michigan could win conference games on the road.

2016

Michigan reeled off 9 straight wins in 2016 and other than the comeback against Colorado and a three missed field goals game against Wisconsin, none of them were particularly close.  You know the story from there.  Painful loss on the road to Iowa, snow game escape against Indiana, and then heartbreaking losses to Ohio State and Florida State.

This is where the emotional damage was done.  A few plays, and one atrocious call, away from a playoff appearance and a great season; potentially one for the ages.  So much promise and potential and yet fans came away with nothing but heartbreak.

The ending was particularly rough not just because it robbed Michigan of a great season, but it erased satisfying wins against not only Colorado and Wisconsin, but also Michigan State and Penn State.  Win one of those three losses and the season feels very different.  To use a cliché, fans were deprived of the type of closure or ending that can make a season feel satisfying even if disappointing.  The end colors the whole season.

2017

This year was the year of youth, particularly on defense.  But an opening win against what was thought to be a solid Florida team seem to portend good things.  The offense struggled but the defense was playing at last year levels despite losing a ton of talent and that was exciting.  A comeback win against Purdue on the road with John O’Korn at QB had fans thinking that the injury to Wilton Speight would not doom the season.

A sloppy loss in a second half monsoon to Michigan State at home drove home the indication that QB and OL play would remain an issue for Michigan; a turnover fest would spell doom.  The feeling of being snake bitten against Michigan State also continued.  The team managed to sneak past Indiana but then were blown out in the second half by a Penn State team who seemed to have it all figured out. 

Michigan went on to thump Rutgers, Minnesota, and Maryland with a suddenly quite good running game.  And it seemed as if Brandon Peters might be the QB that Michigan so desperately needed.  But a concussion against Wisconsin ended that possibility and the end of season losses followed.  This included a torturous loss to Ohio State at home that included a 14-0 lead at one point.  But the lack of a competent QB, O’Korn had lost whatever competence he once possessed, doomed the Wolverines to yet another loss in The Game.

So even before the bowl game, Michigan fans were struggling to make sense of the team and season. On the one hand, the defense seemed to be beating expectations given their youth and the running game come alive.  The offensive play calling against Ohio State was brilliant even if the QB couldn’t hit an open receiver with the game on the line.  On the other hand, the OL couldn’t protect the QB and seemed to find any stunt an unsolvable mystery.  The WRs were young and failing to help the QB when given the chance.

What the bowl game represented was a chance to reset the expectations and reach a plateau on which to build.  South Carolina was a bad team, worse than their 8-4 record.  This was a chance to prove that Michigan could beat a team with a winning record.  The Big Ten was undefeated in bowl games and had a chance to really stick it to the arrogant SEC.  Michigan was favored to win and most felt comfortable then would do so handily.

When you combine the incredible frustration built up in 2016 from being a few plays, and an atrocious call, from greatness with the continuing losses to our rivals in painful fashion (and the media drumbeat on this point), this was a pool of gasoline waiting for a match.

The last quarter and a half against South Carolina provided not a spark but a flamethrower. 

In the first half Michigan had the ball on the South Carolina 17, 8, and 27 and came away with filed goals each time.  SC had a muffed punt and a fumble but were only down 9-3.  Michigan looked poised to put the game away in the second half, however.  After a 7 play 72-yard TD drive and a SC interception Michigan was driving for a score to put the game out of reach.  Karan Higdon fumbled at the 4, seemed to recover it, only to have the defensive lineman rip it away.  The defense held but a chance to deliver the knockout punch slipped by.  Up 23-3 midway through the 3rd quarter would have been a great place to be.

The mistakes from there just multiplied.  SC drove for a TD aided by a stupid personal foul penalty.  Then facing 3rd and 1 at their own 23, Michigan ran the by now infamous play where TE Sean McKeon was lined up as a FB and promptly fumbled the handoff. The very next play was a SC TD and the collapse was on.

  • SC overcame a 3rd and 18 and then hit on a 53-yard bomb for their third straight possession with a TD. 
  • Trailing for the first time Michigan drove to the five only to have Brandon Peters throw an interception in the endzone. 
  • Donovan Peoples-Jones muffs a punt. 
  • The defense holds SC to a FG despite having the ball on the 14. Peters throws four straight incompletions and Michigan turns the ball over on downs. 
  • Again, defense holds, and SC misses a FG.  2nd and 2 at the 39 and Peters inexplicably slides instead of running for the first down.  Two plays later, interception to end the game.

The litany is familiar: five(!) turnovers, 23 unanswered points, results in a blown 19-3 lead midway through the third quarter. An embarrassing loss. The only Big Ten team to lose a bowl game (to an SEC team).

I recap all of this, not because you are not aware of what happened but to try to capture the emotional rollercoaster and how it likely destroyed any semblance of balance and rationality many Michigan fans had.

In 2016 Michigan fans were deprived of the opportunity to prove they could be great.  Instead, a season on the precipice of greatness was cruelly snatched away by the thinnest of margins and by a fate that seems intent on punishing Michigan repeatedly.

Having digested this pain, well mostly, Michigan fans simply wanted to believe that a very young team was still competent enough to win games they were supposed to win.  After coming tantalizing close against quality opponents, they wanted to beat a winning team, hold up their part of the Big Ten reputation and slap down the SEC.

Instead, they got an epic collapse.  Players they had hoped were coming into their own in the 13th game of the season made critical mistakes.  Players they thought were the future, looked unable to handle the spotlight.  And the coaches seemed unable to stop the bleeding or find a way to win.

You can say that Michigan’s history of failing to hold a lead in important games is not relevant to whether Harbaugh knows how to coach or the talent level on the 2018 team.  You can say this year was roughly what was expected.  But the history is there emotionally, and it FEELS important.  Monday made it feel like that history was destiny, that Michigan would forever be the underachieving team. Without a great season to fall back on the future feels like a continuation of heartbreaking losses and mediocrity.

So where do we go from here?  I think you must acknowledge this history and understand that it warps expectations and exaggerates the emotions.  Living in Columbus, I know what winning once in 15 years against OSU feels like.  You can’t have a hyped, media dominating, coach who gets paid ungodly sums, and a coaching staff who are also paid among the highest in the country, and not have expectations grow. And you can’t just wave away the emotions and baggage.

But you also need to realize that Harbaugh is digging out of a hole in terms of recruiting and winning.  And he is doing this at a time when Ohio State is one of the best programs in the country, when Penn State is recruiting at a high level and Michigan State has a coach whose life goal is to beat Michigan even if that is all he accomplishes.  This is an uphill climb. 

It is also important to note, that Michigan isn’t trying to get BACK to the level of Meyer or Saban or Dabo.  It was never at that level.  Those programs have five years of top five recruiting classes under their belt.  They have climbed to the highest level and stayed there. Michigan is trying to build a foundation from which they can reach that level.

That said, 2018 has the feel of a turning point.  Michigan will need to find a way to give fans some significant wins so that they can feel like all the money and hype means something. Another season of losses to rivals and missing the conference championship game will drive the angry voices to newfound heights. 

The good, and bad, news is that Michigan will have plenty of opportunities to get big wins.  As everyone is aware, the schedule is not easy.  Games against Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State on the road and visits from Wisconsin and Penn State.  10 wins, including wins against ND, MSU and/or OSU, would be quite an accomplishment.  It would also give fans enough satisfaction to look to 2019 with excitement. A 4 or 5 loss season would seem to put even Harbaugh on the hot seat.

QB vs Ohio State: Thought Experiment

QB vs Ohio State: Thought Experiment

Submitted by Carcajou on November 19th, 2017 at 9:49 PM

No indication so far that Michigan's starting QB versus Ohio State will be any other than John O'Korn. Maybe not a best case scenario, but not much choice at the moment. You go with what you've got.

Spare us the negativity on JOK- true or not, we've heard it all before. It's stale, unoriginal, pointless, and depressing, Yes, he gets overwhelmed and presses too hard sometimes. Got no choice right now but to root for the young man.

Not sure what was available downfield (Thanks, Fox!), but for some inexplicable reason on the last possession he seemed determined to run for the first down on 3rd and 4th down, when he was clearly outnumbered. Was this a matter of dropping his eyes? Or was it not trusting his receivers and protection, based on past experience?

With the exception of that looping stunt that always seems to fool them (and resulted in Peters' injury), Michigan's pass protection has improved recently, even at this game looking back at it. Peters was getting a little bit of time, and DPJ adjusted nicely on that deep post (if thrown properly it would have been a TD).

The receivers still need to do more, not only about separation, but being more physical. McDoom didn't put up enough effort IMO on that Hitch & Go to the end zone that was underthrown. While not perfect passes, receivers had their hands on four of O'Korn's incompletions, so it can't all be on him. Not sure if he throws a more difficult ball to catch, or what.

Senior Day. Last home game- maybe last game of football ever for JOK.He is in serious need of some kind of redemption. Here's hoping that Michigan's coaches can somehow get him in the right mind to perform the game of his life.

So again, sparing us the snark and negativity: Fast Forward to 4PM Saturday, and Michigan has upset Ohio State with John O'Korn at QB. How did they do it?
 

O'Korn Homecoming Article

O'Korn Homecoming Article

Submitted by PeterKlima on October 17th, 2017 at 9:05 AM

SIAP:  Good article on John O'Korn's homecoming this week.  Apparently his mother is a waitress in State College and the whole family is from the area. 

I had always thought he was from Florida (probably because he was a college transfer):

O’Korn grew up in Huntingdon, Pa., a sleepy borough located on the Juniata River just 33 miles south of State College. It’s the type of small town where people leave their front doors unlocked and everyone knows each other’s first name. They’ll have two rooting interests in this game: the Nittany Lions and the town’s favorite son.

“I’m really excited,” O’Korn said. “I know it’ll mean a lot to my family. I grew up going to a lot of games. I’m really looking forward to it.”

His mom, Paula, is a waitress at a State College restaurant and routinely has Penn State players and coaches’ wives as customers, sister Kalyn is a Penn State graduate, and the entire family is lifelong Penn State supporters. O’Korn’s dad, Gary, noted Kalyn will be wearing maize and blue Saturday.

He tried to graduate early so he could go to PSU:

Ultimately, O’Korn’s fate at Penn State was sealed by Christian Hackenberg’s commitment. The coaching staff wasn’t keen on taking two quarterbacks the same age in the same class. Fisher approached the idea of graduating early, but O’Korn couldn’t make it work.

John's best game was on the road against the coach who benched him at Houston. Maybe that made it personal?

 

Anyway, here is to hoping he plays his ass off for his hometown!!

Analysis: Can John O'Korn Execute Multiple Reads?

Analysis: Can John O'Korn Execute Multiple Reads?

Submitted by stephenrjking on September 25th, 2017 at 11:43 PM

John O'Korn is the man of the hour. He was terrific against Purdue. We are busily considering how far he can take the team as the starter, trying to understand his strengths and weaknesses.

One of the potential weaknesses: does John O'Korn lock on to receivers, neglecting to progress through reads? It was a worry after Indiana. It has been observed by fans this week. Speight's continued hold on the job suggested that it might still be an issue. How'd he do Saturday?

Let's look at the tape. 

This is taken from the WD highlight video. We are analyzing the key drive of the game, the go-ahead drive in the third quarter, the drive in which O'Korn miraculously avoided a sack to hit Perry in stride. I am not overly concerned with that play, however; I'm interested in his pocket passes. The important plays begin at 10:53 of the video, and the plays are listed by video time (I will embed the video in comments). Note: I disclaim any actual knowledge or expertise. 

10:53
It is 1st and 17 at the Michigan 7, midway through the third quarter. From a heavy set Michigan snaps the ball and O'Korn looks to the right, where the TE is releasing to an out route. There is zone coverage and the TE has three guys surrounding him. O'Korn then looks to the center of the field where Gentry is crossing underneath the zone, wide open thanks to a Wheatley clearout. He fires and Gentry turns upfield for an 11 yard gain.

11:07
2nd and 6 from the Michigan 18. O'Korn throws on the first read, a quick out to Gentry. It's the first read, but he fires as Gentry makes his cut, before the defender can respond. It's not a perfect pass but Gentry has a good opportunity and drops it. This was not a progression but it was a correct read and a decisive throw.

11:19
The escape. O'Korn is locked in on Perry here, waiting for him to come open, a bit of a lock on. It's not actually that relevant to this analysis but we all want to watch this play again anyway because it's awesome.

12:02
3rd and 7 from the Michigan 34. Michigan is 5 wide. At the snap O'Korn looks right towards Evans wide right and the slot receiver. Evans is running a vertical and the slot receiver is crossing with man coverage. O'Korn then looks center, sees Mckeon crossing beyond the slot and nails him instantly for a huge gain.

I'm no expert, but I doubt that Chris Evans running a fly is the first read, so either O'Korn was looking right to read the coverage (the slot man may have been the primary target if Purdue had dropped to zone) or that was a designed lookoff. But he clearly didn't turn to Mckeon until the moment it was time to pass, and his execution was perfect.

12:17
The Eubanks targeting play. It's playaction with Perry split wide left running a deep out, which appears to be the primary read. O'Korn appears to hesitate a bit, waiting on Perry to get open, before looking to Eubanks and throwing instantly. Eubanks was open in a space in the zone, but it wasn't a great throw. 

13:19
This is a very encouraging play. 1st and 10 from the Purdue 22. O'Korn looks first downfield left to a TE running what I believe to be a seam route into the endzone, then right to either a TE running a post or the WR in the corner (both covered). He checks down from these reads to Evans, who is open for a short gain. Not a huge gain but a very impressive job of quickly and decisively making the correct reads and checking to an open man, gaining some yards and giving a playmaker a chance to move with the ball in space.

Analysis:
First, the negative: O'Korn can occasionally wait too long for a primary receiver to get open, and he has some rough edges. And I believe his decisiveness could allow clever defenses to bait him into errors with disguised coverages.
 
However, the positive is very impressive. On this drive, the crucial one of the game, O'Korn executed the plays that were called and moved the team down the field. He made multiple-read progressions on several plays, including a solid third-read checkdown that kept the ball moving and set up the subsequent run for a TD. 
 
And his decisive throws upon moving his eyes to a second read were great. As soon as he saw his man he pulled the trigger, something Speight has had trouble with this year. And the throws he made weren't just correct, they were accurate as well. 
 
As a bonus, on the one play where he held on for too long and things broke down, he deftly avoided tacklers, rolled, and found an open man for a perfect throw. 
 
This drive answers a lot of the (valid) questions about his ability to sit in the pocket and make progressions, in my opinion. Very different from the Indiana game. Decisive. Accurate. Smart. 
 
I can't wait to see what he does next.

Zach Shaw's analytic case for John O'Korn

Zach Shaw's analytic case for John O'Korn

Submitted by Communist Football on September 25th, 2017 at 11:16 PM

I liked the way he describes "on-target rate" and "improvisation plays." Beats a superficial look at completion percentage, which can underrate how a QB performs under duress. An excerpt below. Full article here: http://michigan.247sports.com/Article/Replay-Takeaways-No-8-Michigan-28-Purdue-10-football-film-review-107984685

First, O’Korn was exceptionally accurate for a backup quarterback. His on-target rate (see previous versions of this story for more on this) was 22 for 29 (75.9 percent), and he targeted 10 different receivers. While a couple throws waffled, both figures are better than Speight has done this season, and show that O’Korn has the ability to play like a starter beyond potential beginner’s luck.

But as I watched, another development arose that could bode well for Michigan. I pegged O’Korn as 7 for 8 on-target in what I will call “improvisation plays.” These are when the play broke down, the pocket collapsed or something else happened that forced O’Korn to work on his feet. That’s an incredible rate at which he can find someone open under duress, and might not be sustainable. But O’Korn’s improvisation kept Purdue’s defense honest, got more players involved in the passing game, and allowed the Wolverines to solidify momentum in the second half.

While this story is not meant to focus on intangibles, O’Korn’s dodgy approach may have rallied the offense around him. Having seen the previous games on film as well, a rewatch of Saturday looked like a sports movie after the coach tells his struggling team to just have fun or return to their roots in the championship game.

More name suggestions for the John O'Korn fanbase

More name suggestions for the John O'Korn fanbase

Submitted by vertiGoBlue on September 24th, 2017 at 10:12 AM

(sorry, I just couldn't let this die; but, hey, at least it's apolitical [I think]) ...

O'Kornucopians: a sect of M fans who believe that - in a world in which John O'Korn is M's starting QB - their lives will be overflowing with fruit and vegetables, and, most importantly, victories.

O'Kornutopians: a sect of M fans who believe that - in a world in which John O'Korn is M's starting QB - their lives (and, most importantly, M's offense) will be truly ideal.

UnO'Kornians: a sect of M fans who believe that John O'Korn is a mythical horse-like being with a single, sparkly horn growing from the middle of his forehead and a rainbow-like mane & tail. As such, they believe him to have magical abilities including the ability to render poison water potable, the ability to heal sickness, and the ability to resurrect a moribund offense.

Note that there is a rather large overlap between those who self-identify as O'Kornucopians and those who self-identify as O'Kornutopians. Those who despise fruits and vegetables (particularly winter squash) typically self-identify as O'Kornutopians only.

UnO'Kornians, however, are a singular and - not surprisingly - rather fringe group.

(in case you were wondering, Ich bin ein UnO'Kornian - mainly because it reminds me of the Bob's Burgers "Equestranauts" episode).

In any case, I think we can all agree that, today, we are all UnO'Kornians.

(Editorial note: I'm absolutely a fan of all the guys who don the winged helmets - it's all about the team; I can see how the above content comes off as pro- or anti- certain guys vs. others; that's not - at all - my intent, nor my personal feelings on the matter; I just had to share my arguably clever names, that is all. And, as others have commented herein, we are all [or should be] fans of whomever is behind center).

JUB seems to think O'Korn is the QB

JUB seems to think O'Korn is the QB

Submitted by Michael on August 26th, 2016 at 2:10 PM

During his interview on WTKA this morning, John U Bacon seemed to imply that John O'Korn is the starting QB. At least that's what it sounded like to me, when he says "You have to see what O'Korn does in this system" in evaluating the prospects for making the playoffs.

Listen from the 28:00 minute mark.

http://www.wtka.com/2012/09/06/podcasts/

EDIT: To clarify, I think this is significant for two reasons: 1) JUB offered this as fact and not merely his opinion, and 2) JUB has very good access, so it's possibly he's unintentionally leaking information nobody else has.

Of course, I don't subscribe to any of the paid services so I really don't know what's being talked about there.