Never in Last 10 Years Has Preseason No. 1 Won Championship
(EDIT: I updated this when someone pointed out that Oklahoma was the preseason No. 1 in 2011.) This is pretty remarkable: Never in the last 10 years has the preseason AP No. 1 team ended up winning the championship. Moral of the story: You don't want the voters to love you in August.
Here's the list from the last 10 years:
2016
Preseason No. 1: Alabama
Champion: Clemson
2015
Preseason No. 1: Ohio State
Champion: Alabama
2014
Preseason No. 1: Florida State
Champion: Ohio State
2013
Preseason No. 1: Alabama
Champion: Florida State
2012
Preseason No. 1: USC
Champion: Alabama
2011
Preseason No. 1: Oklahoma
Champion: Alabama
2010
Preseason No. 1: Alabama
Champion: Auburn
2009
Preseason No. 1: Florida
Champion: Alabama
2008
Preseason No. 1: Ohio State
Champion: Florida
2007
Preseason No. 1: USC
Champion: LSU
January 10th, 2017 at 1:58 PM ^
crazy to me that Ohio State was ranked #1 in the 2008 pre-season poll after getting hammer-smashed by LSU in the title game the year before and stomp-mauled the year before that by Florida.
January 10th, 2017 at 4:55 PM ^
...OSU is good, B1G is bad, so OSU will get back to the BCS title game by default.
January 10th, 2017 at 5:41 PM ^
I recall people thinking that the B1G allowed OSU to become overrated after consective slobberknokers at the hand of FLA and LSU. They were the Buffalo Bills of college football - making the Super Bowl only to get smashed by the bigger boys.
January 10th, 2017 at 5:02 PM ^
is as far back as anyone should try to remember. So I will give you that.
January 10th, 2017 at 1:59 PM ^
If the voters would just consistently put Alabama at #1, they'd be 4/10. Lesson here is not that #1 never wins; it's that most of the time, Bama is the smart bet.
January 10th, 2017 at 2:43 PM ^
January 10th, 2017 at 2:00 PM ^
it's going to be a crapshoot. if michigan and osu played 10 times, it would probably be a 5-5. if clemson and alabama played 10 times, probably the same.
if the media loves you in the preseason, you're more likely to be a good team and put yourself in the conversation for playing in that crapshoot, though.
January 10th, 2017 at 3:36 PM ^
If 'Bama and Clemson played ten times, 'Bama would win eight of them just because of their advantage in sheer talent. Fortunately for Clemson, they had the advantage at the most important position on the field (QB), and Dabo and staff pulled off a masterful coaching job (coupled with the fact that changing offensive coordinators a week before the NCG was probably not one of Saban's best decisions).
January 10th, 2017 at 4:16 PM ^
Given that Bama had a true freshman QB, I don't know about them winning 8 of 10.
January 10th, 2017 at 4:30 PM ^
Perhaps not that many. Maybe just a majority. But my point is that, on the whole, 'Bama had more talent and depth than Clemson. Yes, Hurts is a freshman, but Saban has never really had an elite QB. In fact, his entire system is designed to obviate the need for an elite QB. Clemson won because Deshaun Watson played lights-out and because the stars aligned for Dabo to out-coach Saban, owing in no small part to the fact that 'Bama was breaking in a new offensive coordinator on the eve of the NCG.
January 10th, 2017 at 2:01 PM ^
Interesting.
January 10th, 2017 at 3:01 PM ^
If you aren't #1 then they don't care if they win or lose to you, right?
January 10th, 2017 at 2:04 PM ^
Would be how many times did the Pre Season #1 get to the championship game?
January 10th, 2017 at 3:04 PM ^
Without looking it up, I can go back to 2011, and in that time it only happened twice, both times Bama.
January 10th, 2017 at 3:24 PM ^
2016 - Alabama (Lost)
2006 - OSU (Lost)
2005 - USC (Lost)
2004 - USC (Won)
January 10th, 2017 at 2:04 PM ^
What would be helpful/more interesting is to see where the champion was originally ranked. For instance, what was the farthest back anyone's come? Probably not outside the top 10? 20?
Preseason polls are pretty useless when it seems like a lot of the time it's just a recoronation of the previous champ (which they had gotten wrong the year before).
January 10th, 2017 at 2:25 PM ^
January 10th, 2017 at 2:39 PM ^
I agree - what would really add to this analysis is the weekly tracking of each team. There used to be a great site called PollTracker (which I think was resurrected in some form) that would let you follow the weekly progressions of each team down to the individual voter. I would also like to see the deepest pit anyone has climbed out of in order to eventually come back in the rankings and win it all.
January 10th, 2017 at 3:15 PM ^
2016 - Clemson - 2
2015 Alabama - 2
2014 OSU - No. 4
2013 Florida St - 11
2012 Alabama - 2
2011 Alabama - 2 (Oklahoma was the preseason no. 1)
2010 Auburn - 22
2009 Alabama - 5
2008 Florida - 5
2007 LSU - 2
2006 Florida - 7
2005 Texas - 2
2004 USC - 1
January 10th, 2017 at 3:29 PM ^
double post
January 10th, 2017 at 2:09 PM ^
Long con.
January 10th, 2017 at 2:12 PM ^
Great - odds would really be against us as a pre-season #1 next year! Good thing we're in the 10-15 range.
January 10th, 2017 at 2:17 PM ^
Not sure why.
I looked at Florida's season that year. Talking heads jabbered about our team not playing any games outside of Michigan. Florida played 10 games in the state of Florida that year, including the BCS title game. Their forays outside of the state:
At Arkansas (finished 5-7)
At Tennessee (finished 5-7)
At Vanderbilt (finished 7-6)
The SEC championship game in Atlanta against then #1 Alabama
January 10th, 2017 at 2:18 PM ^
This is excellent news for purdue fans - they have a chance next year!
January 10th, 2017 at 2:25 PM ^
Hopefully some of are early enrollees will help the team flourish.
January 10th, 2017 at 2:27 PM ^
10% of the time, it works every time...
January 10th, 2017 at 2:29 PM ^
The last 4 years the returning champ has been preseason number 1... Thats pretty lazy and probably part of the reason they are inaccurate...
That or the fact that football is weird. Ill go with football being weird.
January 10th, 2017 at 2:40 PM ^
January 10th, 2017 at 3:56 PM ^
Yeah. Above all this just seems to suggest that it's very difficult to repeat as champion.
January 10th, 2017 at 2:38 PM ^
1981 Preseason No. 1: Michigan (loss to Wisconsin in Madison in opener, 14-21, finished 9-3)
1981 Champion: Clemson
1989 Preseason No. 1: Michigan (loss to Notre Dame 19-24 in Ann Arbor in opener, finished 10-2)
1989 Champion: Miami (FL)
January 10th, 2017 at 2:44 PM ^
But we're not, because this time we're Ten
January 10th, 2017 at 2:49 PM ^
January 10th, 2017 at 3:17 PM ^
Correct. 2004 USC was the last team to be No. 1 from start to finish.
January 10th, 2017 at 3:00 PM ^
Good news is we won't be No. 1 to start 2017. It's our year!
January 10th, 2017 at 3:05 PM ^
What this says to me is that frequently, though not always, this year's champion ends up being next year's pre season #1. And champions rarely repeat.
January 10th, 2017 at 3:06 PM ^
Pre season rankings mean nothing . Rankings shouldnt start until a week or two into the season .
January 10th, 2017 at 4:32 PM ^
thanks