The Mad Hatter

June 7th, 2016 at 1:25 PM ^

Lose a metric fuckton of talent this year.  We're returning most of ours.  Either of our potential starting QB's have been in Harbaugh's system for over a year.

We have the better HC and assistants.  We should be ranked higher than both OSU and MSU in preseason polls, and favored to win the Big 10.

We'll see what happens, but I haven't been this optimistic about our team in a decade.  If we get even decent QB play we should make the playoffs.  Good QB play should get us a NC.

drjaws

June 7th, 2016 at 2:35 PM ^

A metric fuckton is roughly equivalent to 3 standard tons (or tonnes for our UK friends) of shit as long as you use the proper conversion factor.

1 fuckton = ~3 shit-tons

And Hatter is right, a douche-canoe is a volumetric measurement of bull shit being spewed by someone, usually used as a pro-noun.  However, as it is a measurement of spoken BS, it is a measurement of gas, not of liquid, and therefore the precise volume of douch canoe is subject to Boyle's Law, Avogadro's Law, Gay-Lussac's Law, Amonton's Law and Charle's Law.

Example: "This douche canoe is spewing all kinds of BS, and none of it is even worth a fuckton of shorn pubes."  Temperature and pressure have an effect on the exact amount of BS being spewed in this example, of course.

 

The end.

umchicago

June 7th, 2016 at 1:58 PM ^

i haven't been more optimistic about a UM team ever before the season.  we may have the best D in the country.  i have never thought that about any other UM team.

1989 is a close 2nd.  i was too young to know about Bo's 1970s teams but i'm guessing that senior-led rick leach team would be right there.

EGD

June 7th, 2016 at 3:39 PM ^

Pretty much every year in the '90s I figured we had a shot at the NC. The one exception would have been 1995, when we didn't have a veteran QB on the roster. But this is the first year since probably 2003 that I have had that '90s level of optimism.

stephenrjking

June 7th, 2016 at 3:56 PM ^

Yep. Every year I went in thinking, "Is this the year?"

Honestly, the first season in the 90s that I entered autumn thinking "Maaaybe not this year" was a season in which Michigan was coming off of a meh finish without much offensive firepower and was ranked in the low teens.

1997.

There were hopes every Carr year in the 2000s, too. Again, I was getting pessimistic by 2006, but the Notre Dame game shook that off pretty quickly. I am hopeful that our current coaching staff is more deserving of that kind of confidence than previous ones.

WFDEric

June 7th, 2016 at 2:19 PM ^

PTSD is real. I believe 80% of our fan base suffers from this horrible psychological disease. 5% of the fan base is so young its never seen a Rose Bowl victory. 15% of us understand whats going on and that MSU is going to suffer a horrible beat down. All of us will hold our breath for "The Game." With this "D" top 5 ranking is reasonable.

SpikeFan2016

June 7th, 2016 at 4:02 PM ^

I don't think we can really say we have "better" coaches at this point. 

 

I'd say equal. MSU's staff has done a hell of a lot with not a lot of talent and Urban has multiple National Championships. 

 

We need to beat them consistently for us to say that. 

The Fugitive

June 7th, 2016 at 1:01 PM ^

So that's why these publications make so many preseason polls; just in case a program has a major sexual assault scandal resulting in coach firings and a mass player exodus.

I hope that doesn't happen at a basketball power although it would be nice to move up a line to the 5 seed out West.

Perkis-Size Me

June 7th, 2016 at 1:07 PM ^

That's placing a lot of trust in this team when we don't have a QB or any proven LBs. And its not like our new QB has an elite running game and OL play to fall back on. Both are good, really came on during the Citrus Bowl, but haven't proven to be great. 

I know we're in great hands with the QB whisperer as our head man, but I think this is more to generate clicks and rattle some cages than actual belief that Michigan is the #3 team in America. I would not put us ahead of OSU right now. Not until we actually prove we can beat them. 

Henry Arulingverder

June 8th, 2016 at 1:42 AM ^

OSU is ranked just about where they should be. Michigan on paper should absolutely be ranked that high. Harbaugh alone (considered in the big 3 of coaching at the collegiate level) + our staff + a bunch of returning seniors & one, Jabrill Peppers. One, Rashan Gary. Hard pressed to name any other team outside of Bama & Clemson that looks better on paper. 

*Sips Kool-Aid*. 

The Mad Hatter

June 7th, 2016 at 1:28 PM ^

from someone inside Ft. Schembechler.  Speight has the better arm and protects the ball better.  O'Korn likes to run too much and isn't careful enough for Harbaugh's liking.

We'll see what happens after fall camp, but I wouldn't be surprised if Speight is the starter.  Rudock 2.0.

RainbowSprings

June 7th, 2016 at 2:02 PM ^

I realize the Spring Game was a single glimpse of his play, but all those runs worried me. QBs who tend to run too much do not fare well in the passing game after numerous hits during the year. Just look at Denard and Devin. Plus, the QB seems to start thinking he has to make the big play all the time.

However, in Harbaugh we trust...

stephenrjking

June 7th, 2016 at 4:02 PM ^

It's not the hits that worry me. Someone who is described as "running too much" is often someone who stares down their first read but isn't comfortable making a second or third.

Ironically, Denard did not run enough; if he was supposed to throw a pass, he would look for an open receiver for an E T E R N I T Y before even thinking about pulling and running. DG had a better sense of it and had the electricity to do damage, which was an asset. The problem is that the OL let him get killed in the pocket and he tended to seriously biff a read or two every game.

If JOK is running too often (this is a fourth-hand rumor, so this could be total malarky, who knows) that suggests that he's not handling progressions well. And if Speight does handle those better, that's a real reason to give him an edge, even if his throws aren't as impressive.

FWIW I was no film buff back then but my sense is that this scenario is similar to the difference between Brady and Henson in 1999. One guy could run the whole offense, the other guy was talented and made the more exciting throws.

The Mad Hatter

June 7th, 2016 at 6:21 PM ^

Speight has the better arm. Maybe not as strong, but his accuracy has improved significantly over last season. O'Korn's first instinct is to run if his first target is unavailable. I think your comparison to Brady and Henson is probably pretty close. That said, my source could be wrong, but he's in a position to know.

stephenrjking

June 7th, 2016 at 9:05 PM ^

That's interesting, since O'Korn's rep is the ability to rip it with (we would presume) impressive deep passes. Speight's arm strength didn't impress me last year. But perhaps I lack proper data. Or, as you suggest, this is an accuracy issue, where it is entirely plausible that Speight has an edge. Fall camp will be interesting. I still tend to think O'Korn's ceiling is higher, but Harbaugh knows what he's doing here.

somewittyname

June 7th, 2016 at 1:24 PM ^

No one is saying we are better than OSU, just that we project to be pretty damn good this year. It'd be ridiculous to go around bragging about a #3 preseason ranking, but it's hard to argue against it.

We project to have the likely the best or certainly the deepest DL. I doubt you'll find a better set of starting corners. Two safeties who have seen significant playing time, one of whom has potential to be a big time play maker. While uncertainty looms at LB, the unit wasn't good this year and we have Peppers plus healthy McCray and incoming Bush. I can see a talented freshmen like Bush actually contributing because frankly a lot may not be asked of the linebackers this year with the strength of the DL.

On offense, we have an OL that projects to be solid, two very solid+ WRs, a ridiculous TE group, options at RB and then there's QB. This team doesn't need a JT Barrett or Deshaun Watson. While there is uncertainty the options don't seem scary, maybe even arguably exciting, especially considering who is coaching them. If O'Korn is too mistake prone, it seems reasonable based off spring to think Speight could be a good game manager. Even in absolute disaster scenarios, you have Morris and Peters.

Projections are projections, so sure they don't mean much. At the same time, there is a strong argument for top 5 projection.

UMBSnMBA

June 7th, 2016 at 1:10 PM ^

They are actually decided by the outcomes of the games.  When is September going to roll around?  These polls are about as worthless as the electrons that they are printed on!

HimJarbaugh

June 7th, 2016 at 3:00 PM ^

Not really? Western Kentucky and Navy weren't in the preseason polls last year. Neither were Michigan, Houston, Iowa, Utah, UNC, Northwestern, Florida, or Oklahoma State.

Polls don't matter until the end. It may look good to say you beat a top-10 team in week 1 or 2 but that doesn't hold weight unless they are still a top team at the end of the year. Hell, MSU squeaked by Oregon last year but most people didn't know how inept Oregon was until they got spanked at home by Utah a couple weeks later.

HimJarbaugh

June 7th, 2016 at 3:49 PM ^

No, I am suggesting that after the regular season and conference championship games, the cream rises to the top. Had they not lost to UConn, Houston probably would have been in the playoff over Oklahoma. Any AAC team would have had to run the table for a shot  because the conference was so weak.

BigBlue02

June 7th, 2016 at 6:14 PM ^

The point. You completely missed it. Going through 90% of the season ranked #1 is a fuck ton different than being unranked and making your way up the rankings. Unless you are suggesting that there isn't any controversy on who the 3rd or 4th team in the playoff will be and that their preseason ranking wouldn't matter in their final ranking. Which is just not based in reality, but you're welcome to think that.

HimJarbaugh

June 7th, 2016 at 7:06 PM ^

It doesn't matter - all that matters is your record relative to everyone else's at the end of the year. A preseason ranking won't keep an undefeated Vanderbilt out of the CFBP even if Oklahoma, Michigan, Stanford, and Clemson also went undefeated.

Auburn wasn't ranked in the 2013 preseason and neither was MSU but they each finished in the top 3. TCU wasn't in the top 25 before 2014 just like Notre Dame wasn't in 2012.

ghostofhoke

June 8th, 2016 at 7:58 PM ^

Exactly. The rankings are fully discussed by a panel every week. That is way different than the old system where coaches simply had their assistants send in rankings or the press who don't watch the west coast games. The system is far and away more fluid than ever before, there is no argument against that. Being first at the beginning of the season has no impact and leads to basically no bias.



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

chatster

June 7th, 2016 at 2:31 PM ^

In recent years, the credibility of all of these media-generated, way-too-early, pre-season guesses about the teams projected to be the best in the country have been undermined by the facts that (a) few of them are based on any detailed review of the teams, and (b) none of them can safely predict the impact of incoming freshmen and transfers or injuries to key players.
 
The typical MGoBlog reader knows substantially more about Michigan’s prospects for the 2016 season than any national media member. If I really wanted to know more about the prospects for this coming season for Alabama or Clemson or Ohio State or Michigan State or any of the other teams on Michigan’s schedule for this season, I’d read what their dedicated bloggers and the local media who regularly follow those teams are saying.
 
While it's always great to see outsiders predicting a great season for any Michigan team, I have a feeling that the moderators of MGoBlog will be providing me with far more accurate information about Michigan Football's 2016 prospects.

BigBlue02

June 7th, 2016 at 3:30 PM ^

Is this really way too early? Football starts in less than 3 months. At this point it is just preseason rankings

Stringer Bell

June 7th, 2016 at 4:01 PM ^

What does beating MSU or OSU have to do with anything?  We haven't played them this year.  I never understood this line of thinking that we have to prove it against OSU and MSU first.

SpikeFan2016

June 7th, 2016 at 4:08 PM ^

Because both have consistently finished in the top 5 or top 10 in the country for much of the last decade and we have gone a combined 2-14 against them in the last 8 years. So, both programs are the standard for what a top 5/top 10 team is and we haven't been able to compete with them in quite a while. 

And our most recent loss against one of them was arguably the worst loss to either of them in the last decade. So we have quite a lot to prove.