SEARCHBITS X: THE XTH ONE
THAT'S THE SPIRIT. User "Number 7" on the correct way to take all information:
1. All good news is good news. (Because it's good news. Duh.)
2. All bad news is good news. (Because it's probably just a smokescreen, because timing.)
and, thanks to this,
3. No news is good news. (Because also timing.)
Don't forget "4. In case of 2, annihilate the messenger."
ON HARBAUGH'S INTEREST LEVEL. I like it when NFL guys fire off things that I know aren't true, because then I can rail against 'em. It provides a level of certainty that's rare in any coaching search, and especially this one featuring a primary candidate who's employed until the end of December.
So: I know that the Michigan end of things referred to here…
The University of Michigan has reached out to #49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, sources say. U-M left convinced he wanted to be an @NFL coach
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 7, 2014
…certainly does not think they're going to have to move on, at least not to the point of being "convinced" about anything. There was a meeting of some variety—executed slightly better than Jeremy Foley's—but the aftermath of it has not seen any lack of pursuit or increased focus on guys other than Harbaugh. Since Michigan didn't advertise it to the nation, we can't be certain exactly who was involved. I've heard it was high-level, possibly a Hackett-Harbaugh face-to-face.
I don't know what's going to happen, but the NFL-facing sources have been so strident about things that I know are not true multiple times that I take every new report from them with a grain of salt. If they end up being right it's not going to be because they're super plugged in.
ALSO HARBAUGH. Heard that he took in the OSU game with a bunch of former teammates who were asking him to fix things, to which he said (paraphrased) 1) you'll have to wait a bit here and 2) I'll have to get paid like a top five college coach.
The upshot of the first bit: Harbaugh isn't going to to anything that would be seen as abandoning his team, even as their playoff odds get extremely long. Don't expect something until the 28th, if Michigan is still waiting then.
The upshot of the second: I don't think we're talking Godfather money here, but something approximately Saban/Meyer yes. This was apparently the subject of a brief tug-of-war at the AD/prez/regents level when Schlissel balked at the idea and the regents were like "no, actually, this makes sense because X and Y." They are good to go for compensation, with donor aid.
UNLESS! That is, unless Harbaugh gets canned before the season's over. That would be completely nuts on San Francisco's part, but guys who cover the team are broaching the idea:
With a trip to Seattle coming Sunday, where the 49ers haven't won since 2011, before Russell Wilson was drafted, there's a reasonable chance Harbaugh doesn't last the season.
The precedent is Harbaugh's predecessor Mike Singletary, who was fired in Week 16 of 2010, after San Francisco was eliminated from playoff contention. That year, the Seahawks won the NFC West going 7-9.
If they're so inclined Michigan could step in and save the 49ers a hunk of money. With Harbaugh's contract an asset, it's unlikely he gets fired-fired; SF would probably not want him across the Bay and if so would want to get at least a mid-round pick out of it. Speaking of across the Bay…
MARK DAVIS IS A ROMULAN
DON'T WORK FOR THE ROMULANS BECAUSE THEY'LL EVENTUALLY ENSLAVE YOU AND PUT YOU TO WORK IN THE DILITHIUM MINES OF PENTAX IV, THAT'S MY MOTTO
SHUT UP, IT'S A GOOD MOTTO
AM I MINING UNTIL I DIE ON A ROCK IN THE DEMILITARIZED ZONE? NO? QED.
THIS BETTING MARKET IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. After pulling their Harbaugh prop over the weekend, it returns with the Raiders a heavy favorite:
Harbaugh coaching odds opened OAK 5-6 Other NFL Team 2-1 Does Not Coach 5-2 SF 6-1 Michigan 6-1 Other NCAA Team 15-1 http://t.co/wgXQWIYuj0
— Sportsbook.com ® (@Sportsbook_com) December 8, 2014
And then a heavier one:
Re Harbaugh 2015 Odds...within minutes of tweeting out the new odds we took heavy action on Oakland Raiders so moved them from -120 to -200
— Sportsbook.com ® (@Sportsbook_com) December 8, 2014
That wild swing is likely because of the weekly NFL reporter scoffing and the fact that Harbaugh talked to Raiders owner Prince Valium after San Francisco lost to his team on Sunday. I'm a little skeptical Harbaugh's going to take the worst possible NFL job, one that might not even be in Oakland next year, but that ain't good. On the other hand:
.@Sportsbook_com If he's 6-1 to coach San Francisco next year, then what is "Raptured following glorious victory over Lizard People?" 8-1?
— Bryan Mac (@Bry_Mac) December 8, 2014
And they just dropped the M odds to 4-to-1 as money comes in on them once again. Woo!
PROPS TO NFL LLOYD CHRISTMAS, THOUGH. This is a good quote:
What did they talk about? I asked Davis, who laughed and said:
“I told him, ‘You stole our dysfunction!” Davis said. “‘That’s supposed to be our thing!’”
THE PLAN B TIER. With everyone laser-focused on Harbaugh there continues to be little clarity as to who might be the backup plan. Les Miles said he had not been contacted by Michigan, and I continue to believe that he's facing too much internal opposition to get a serious sniff.
Sam Webb has had a couple posts on Greg Schiano and Steve Addazio in the last couple days, names that alarm and boggle. The most recent was at least about how Addazio is a more likely candidate than Schiano; I choose to interpret that information as "we do not want Greg Schiano so passionately we would choose to hire Steve Addazio over him." Corroborating is Steve Lorenz, who says all the noise about Schiano has come from his end($), with no Michigan folk mentioning his name.
That leaves Addazio's presence. Bald Brady Hoke makes no sense as any kind of candidate except to your crazy old coot grandfather who has all his savings in gold and doesn't trust the FDIC. Unfortunately, we have a lot of those hanging around. FWIW, I haven't heard one thing about him.
I don't think anyone has a strong grasp on who Plan B is. Rivals is pushing guys like Sean Payton and Bret Bielema; meanwhile on WTKA this morning Sam was talking about Jim Mora. I have heard diverse and sundry names, none of which stand out from the crowd. Clint Brewster's five guys not named Harbaugh or Miles seems like a realistic baseline: David Shaw, Mora, Dan Mullen, Kyle Whittingham… sigh… Addazio.
kind of looks like Scott Bakula
PINKEL? Seeing chatter about Mizzou's Gary Pinkel, but… like… okay remember what happened when Nebraska hired Mike Riley? Gary Pinkel is a bit like that. He's obviously got a much better track record than Riley what with his five ten-win seasons in the last eight years, but he would be 63 by the time he coached one game at M. By the time he got his guys in here he'd be ready to retire.
Pinkel may be an excellent coach, but is he that much better than a guy a decade younger than him? Coaching transitions suck; do you want to guarantee yourself another one in 5-7 years?
HE DOES THIS EVERY YEAR. One of the most attractive candidates on the B tier is on the verge of signing an extension:
Scott Stricklin expects a contract extension for Dan Mullen soon.
"Dan, in his defense, his focus has been recruiting, being in bowl prep," Stricklin said. "But I'm optimistic we can get that wrapped up pretty soon."
Ah but there's a catch with the headline here:
Mississippi state law doesn't allow for a state employee's contract to extend more than four years. In each of the five previous seasons Stricklin and Mullen have come to an agreement. This year appears no different.
Iowa fans envy Mississippi State law so hard right now. But anyway: because of this law MSU has gone back to Mullen every year for a pro forma extension. That statement from the AD is based on hope and expectation and not nearly as meaningful as it would be otherwise.
There's been a bare minimum of Mullen chatter aside from some national guys on Scout saying he would jump if given the opportunity, so for whatever (probably bad) reasons are out there he does not seem like a likely option if Harbaugh falls through. That makes no sense to me, nor big chunks of the coaching fraternity. It is what it is. I'm still hoping this apparent lack of interest is because there is no serious interest in anyone not named Harbaugh just yet.
nope
THIS, HOWEVER, IS THE END OF BUTCH. Butch Jones gets extended to 2020 at $3.6 million a year(!). In two years at Tennessee he's 11-13 and his best win is likely over South Carolina this year. Recruiting's going in the right direction, but as Hoke demonstrated that's not always enough.
In any case, that's enough to knock Jones off the Plan B list.
Etc.: Oregon State contacts Hoke. Note that they have not contacted Schiano. In Oregon State's opinion we would be downgrading if we hired Greg Schiano. Baumgardner column.
December 8th, 2014 at 1:51 PM ^
I've seen it asserted (but not backed up with anything) that Harbaugh has an out in the event he goes back to college. This reporter's statement seems to support that. (i.e., they would terminate him prior to him exercising the out). Did the reporter back that up explicitly?
I hadn't really thought an early firing was plausible, but if he has that clause, and if he could veto any trade, then yes, an early firing is actually a possibility.
December 8th, 2014 at 2:51 PM ^
This 49er beat reporter also explicitly stated last week Harbaugh/Balke relationship irrevocably broken. He doesn't burn his sources, and it was just a tweet, so no crediting his info his forthcoming. If Harbaugh wants to go to Mich, or even if he refuses to go where they want to trade him, he'll be free soon.He's got ALL the leverage here. His worst case scenario (imagine this in your life) is he sits home and collects $5mill next year... I should have it so bad!
December 8th, 2014 at 3:05 PM ^
I don't think it's so much as a contractual out as that Harbaugh can simply chose to resign and become a college coach without causing any financial damage to the 49ers. Harbaugh is prevented from coaching a different NFL team while he's under contract with the 49ers by NFL rules. It isn't written into his contract. That's different than the college game where there is no overarching league to enforce contracts. Thus, you need buyouts (Liquidated Damages clauses in contractual legal terms) in college to keep a coach from fleeing at the drop of a hat. You won't have a buyout in the NFL because there's no fear of your coach resigning to coach your competitor.
December 8th, 2014 at 3:16 PM ^
Thanks
December 8th, 2014 at 12:38 PM ^
Has a coach ever been traded before? Just seems a bit bizzare to me.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:42 PM ^
Gruden, Herm Edwards, Belichick, Parcells... all traded within the last 15 years. Only one of them proved to be worth it. (Okay, Gruden was worth it too as Tampa won a SB in his first year, then the whole thing cratered once he had to develop his own QB. But still, they won.)
December 8th, 2014 at 12:43 PM ^
New England got Bill Bellichek in a trade with the Browns.
There have been a few others, but that's the one that I remember off of the top of my head.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:48 PM ^
I believe it was a trade with the Jets, not Browns.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:58 PM ^
for the correction...I hate to put out misinformation; I don't know why the browns was stamped in my brain.
December 8th, 2014 at 1:09 PM ^
I originally thought the same as you. Belichick coached the Browns from 1991-1995, was then fired/hired by the Jets
December 8th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
Belichick was traded from the Jets to the Patriots after he bailed on becoming the Jets HC.
December 8th, 2014 at 1:19 PM ^
December 8th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^
What would the reaction be if this occurred with Jim Harbaugh. He takes the Michigan job, only to resign and take an NFL job.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^
Gruden got traded to Tampa Bay in 2002 for 2 first round picks, 2 second round picks, and $8 million.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:39 PM ^
I can't believe no one has told Mark Davis that that haicrut is a terrible idea.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:43 PM ^
I think you went wrong when you referred to it as a "haircut" and not a "mop/wig."
December 8th, 2014 at 12:49 PM ^
I get the impression that nobody ever delivers bad news to any member of the Davis family. That haircut and/or incredibly shitty toupee is proof of someone who long ago sent the message "criticize me and I will destroy you."
December 8th, 2014 at 1:06 PM ^
Judging from the hairs spiking up at the top, I think it's real. Nobody would pay money for a wig looking like that anyhow.
I'd love to be a fly on the wall in a bar when he approaches some hot babe and tries to chat her up with that ridiculous 'do.
December 8th, 2014 at 2:03 PM ^
December 8th, 2014 at 2:23 PM ^
Nobody would pay money for a wig looking like that anyhow.
One would certainly think, except that Gene Keady used to spend $600 a week on hair extensions for his unbelievable bad combover. Anything is possible.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:40 PM ^
Please keep these coming everyday. Helps keep me grounded.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:41 PM ^
I feel like Steve Zissou looking for the Jaguar Shark. If we get Harbaugh, I want Sigur Ros playing during the press conference.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
Love that gif. Got the play card up just at the right time. That's a trick someone should have taught Brian Kelly. I saw some similar words come out of Tom Brady's mouth last night, but he didn't have the luxury of the play card.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:52 PM ^
It's definitely one of my favorites. Def needs to show Brian Kelly that move.
Favorite Harbaugh gif
December 8th, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^
MMMM..... ?????????
December 8th, 2014 at 2:43 PM ^
Gesundheit!
December 8th, 2014 at 12:41 PM ^
December 8th, 2014 at 12:53 PM ^
don't think he's coming, but I now think there's a real chance.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:45 PM ^
Meanwhile, the Iowa AD is backing Ferentz 100%.
http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/iowa-athletic-director-…
It's weird, but nepotism and the "comfortable hire" with "who you know" so often comes to bites you in the ass.
1983 Iowa Staff: Bill Snyder (KSU), Del Miller (KSU), Kirk Ferentz (Iowa), Hayden Fry, also Barry Alvarez (Wisconsin), Dan McCarney (Iowa State), Bobby Stoops (Oklahoma).
Ferentz is 115-84 at Iowa (.577) after 16 years as HC.
December 8th, 2014 at 1:12 PM ^
Those guys were all on that staff.
Pretty incredible.
December 8th, 2014 at 3:15 PM ^
Hayden Fry was a legend. Iowa was basically another Indiana when he got there and he made them a perennial contender and had a great coaching tree. He took Iowa as far as anyone possibly could.
December 8th, 2014 at 7:55 PM ^
motherofgod.gif
Now that's a friggin coaching tree.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
When/if a definitive "no" comes from the Harbaugh camp I am pretty sure it will be as like a informal press release. It won't be just a random national NFL guy that gets the info. All the usual insiders will get the same info around the same time. Including any beat people, and probably even Brian. Hackett will want to quash that optimism ASAP as moves forward so the let down for the new guy won't be so fresh.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
I havent read anything from MGOBLOG about Bob Stoops.
I am hearing quite a bit about him if JH says no.
Pretty good "fallback" option IMO.
With that in mind I am not even worried. Something good will happen here before Jan 4th 2015.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:48 PM ^
If Harbaugh eventually is not an option, I am all for hiring Bob Stoops.
December 8th, 2014 at 1:35 PM ^
Except for that part where Stoops is not.
December 8th, 2014 at 8:09 PM ^
like you're nitpicking, now.
/s
December 8th, 2014 at 12:45 PM ^
Butch Jones agent, you da real MVP. I think he parlayed little to no interest from Michigan into a fat raise for Jones. Pretty well done on his part.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:56 PM ^
From what I understand (and it's very little) Dave Brandon made the initial contact with Butch Jone's agent right around the Utah game.
Not sure if Hackett followed up. In this day and age, that's all that's needed for an extra million dollars.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^
That last paragraph sure is a zinger
December 8th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^
I actually think he would have been an awesome Plan B hiring for Ann Arbor. What he's done at Oregon State, while far from glorious from a W-L perspective, is damn impressive if you consider how little OSU has going for it. He has literally nothing to sell for recruits (OSU is not impressive academically, it's facilities are laughable, and Corvallis, while a nice enough town is, at best, "quaint".) Only Washington State is a tougher spot to win at in the Pac12, maybe Utah (though that could be debated.)
Despite the lack of talent, Riley has consistently produced NFL talent out of the 3-star hoardes. This isn't Dan Mullen pulling fringe 3-star athletes who turn into 5-star guys, this is taking rural Oregonians and Nevadans, gray-shirting them, and turning them into linebackers and linemen who can hold up against the USCs and Oregons of the world. This is plucking low-level 3-stars from Texas and building your entire offense on the one skill position guy who has legitimate skills.
Riley's one of the best pro-style coaches around college football. USC wanted him, and that should tell you something. He consistently develops QBs and he rarely does overtly dumb stuff. Every year he pulls off upsets against far more talented teams.
He's extemely likeable (in a very un-Brady Hoke like way). He is positive and energetic. His personality would have gone over great in AA and the west-coast-freindly atmosphere. I'm dubious of the fit in Lincoln, but in AA he would have been very well received. I was actually bummed he was taken of the market in the event that the A-listers don't pan out for UofM, Riley would have been up there for me.
Anyway, my point is that Riley shouldn't be derided as a bad hire without considering the context. I'd give Nebraska a B or B+.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:52 PM ^
Aren't these basically the exact same arguments for Dan Mullen that you have been dismissing for the past few days?
December 8th, 2014 at 1:03 PM ^
I think Mullen would be a great hire. I'd rather have him than Riley.
My argument on Mullen has been that he won't pick UM over MSU (and that Michigan won't hire him, as he's in many way the poor-man's RichRod.) I don't see it working out from either end.
NOTE: I don't mean that as a diss. I think RR is one of the best coaches in the country and Mullen may in the end prove even better, but isn't there yet.
December 8th, 2014 at 1:01 PM ^
to be fair to this guy, Riley is 20 years older.
December 8th, 2014 at 1:14 PM ^
And a pretty curious one for Nebraska.
But at Michigan (hypothetically), given the pro-style foundation Hoke put in, Riley would have very low transition costs and could get the program stabilized quickly. There is something to be said for re-establishing the Michigan identity over the next 5-8 years, even if we're not likely to be contending for national titles in that time. At the very least we want to get back to beating the Minnesota's of the world as well as the MSU's.
Transitions do suck, but the risk of one in 5-8 years can be stomached if it minimizes the risk of a another bumpy transition under a unproven candidate, even if they come with way more upside. As excited as I'd be about Stitt or Chad Morris or some other coordinator with lots of appeal, it's a huge risk for Michigan to take. Riley is not.
Riley is a minimal-risk, moderate reward candidate. Or at least he would have been for Michigan. He's certainly more appealing to me than the Schiano/Addazio types.
December 8th, 2014 at 1:43 PM ^
That is complete nonsense. Over the last five years Riley is under .500. He is also reaching the age when many coaches start going downhill. He is a huge risk. Your takes are reaching fusion levels.
December 8th, 2014 at 2:34 PM ^
I don't believe that W-L record is the only or even best predictor of success. For example, getting a bunch of 8-9 wins seasons at OSU is a lot harder than getting 10-11 win seasons at Oklahoma. 500 is an acheivement at OSU. The Pac12 is loaded right now with coaching talent and Oregon State is out-manned in personnel in nearly every game it plays. Yes, Riley is old and yes, the last few years has been moderately disappointing (albeit still above where OSU should be given their talent level). His track record stands as impressive (4 season of 9 or 10 wins out of the last 10) is very very good for the context.
You're entitled to your opinion and so am I. I think bringing up Stitt is "nonsense" because there is zero chance in hell of it happening and there is massive risk in taking anyone who hasn't coached at this level. But you think Riley is "nonsense" even though he was actually HIRED by Nebraska, a program with many similarities to Michigan. That they did it doesn't mean it will succeed, but there are valid reasons they did what they did. They just don't matter to you anymore, apparently.
Here is quote:
What he's done at Pac-10 Indiana is staggering. He runs a pro-style offense that would fit Michigan's current talent well (and better than, say, Rich Rodriguez' spread option). He turned Joey Harrington into the third pick in the NFL draft. He's young enough to coach Michigan for 20 years but experienced enough (and in one place) to have built the sort of track record Michigan can be secure in. If he wants it, he should be the guy.
That was from Tedford's profile in herioism in 2007. Tedford was obviously NOT the guy, and he was far younger than Riley is now, but much of the rationale still applies today. Riley would have been a decent Plan B for Michigan.
You are overrating age as a factor. It is very logical to think an old coach is a viable candidate to stabilize Michigan. Just as Harbaugh is a viable candidate even if he jumps back to the NFL in 4 years. Your rational in this search has been "nothing to lose" which I don't agree with in the least. Michigan has a tremendous amount to lose. Michigan is still relevant, although grasping at maintaining it's status as so. The risk of a third failure in a row is long term dormancy. Say goodbye to falling back into a pool of 4-star talent to keep you afloat. There is tremendous value in just getting back to the 8-10 win a year baseline. It's not as nice as scaling Mt. Meyer but the risk of becoming Minnesota/Vanderbilt/Boston College/Cal is real. It is pure arrogance to assume otherwise.
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