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Seth December 8th, 2018 at 9:34 PM

Michigan's 2019 class just took a heartbreaking blow, as five-star/top commit Daxton Hill flipped tonight to Alabama.

Hill is the consensus top safety in the country and likely would have helped Michigan immediately in its quest to suffocate all possible offensive options with more talented players. It especially hurts because of how well Hill would have filled the one hole in Don Brown's system. It triply sucks because #3 overall safety Lewis Cine, a former teammate of Michigan commit Mike Sainristil, appeared to lose interest in Michigan shortly after Hill committed. It quadruply sucks because it's further evidence that our entire reality is some awful child's NCAA 2014 Alabama dynasty.

Hill is the fifth decommit of this class but the first that was truly surprising, and the most impossible to replace. Michigan still has four-star safety Quinten Johnson in the class, as well as viper prospects Joey Velazquez and Amauri Pesek-Hickson, and a slew of lanky prospects from last year. In the past Don Brown has found NFL safeties (John Johnson, Justin Simmons, Obi Melifanwu) in under-scouted athletes but there's no Melifanwus on the board at the moment, unless you count Pesek-Hickson.

With the loss of its only current five-star Michigan's class has dropped out of the top ten in the 247 composite. Michigan is expected to reel in one of its top receiver prospects and one or two giant offensive linemen, and remains the crystal ball leader for five-star DE Zach Harrison.

Comments

Alumnus93

December 9th, 2018 at 6:32 PM ^

Ask yourself this... When Carr began to lose consistenly to Tressel, the move there could have been to let him go for someone who could beat Tressel.... akin to finding someone who could beat Woody and that was Bo.   Well, that guy who could beat Tressel?  Mark Dantini who was at Cinci at the time... yep .  Now, how against would you have been if they replaced Carr with Dantini?  I can assure you this lost decade + would not have happened.  

Joined: 09/10/2009

MGoPoints: 9684

Mongo

December 9th, 2018 at 9:25 AM ^

Exactly, Dax Hill covering Pariss Campbell is a fair fight.  We can't keep covering elite WRs with 3-star talent.  The difference in speed and athleticism was right there on display in Columbus.  Our DBs were generally good but not all of them were fast enough to cover elite WRs.  OSU game plan exposed that bigtime.  Dax Hill would have started as a frosh and help bring the defense up a legitimate notch against the best teams. 

Joined: 06/25/2016

MGoPoints: 9585

M-Dog

December 9th, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^

The answer is not Dax Hill or die.  Players of that caliber are rare, and as we have just seen, really really hard to get.

Your entire system can't be predicated on Dax Hill types at safety.  It almost never happens.

The rest of the Big Ten such as Purdue showed us how to defend Ohio State with less than Dax Hill-level talent.

Play more zone, bend but don't break, get stops or hold them to field goals in the red zone where their athletic mismatches in space are severely compressed.

This will limit their offense, not stop it.  But it gives you a chance. 

The other piece of the puzzle is that your own offense needs to keep pace.  You will still need to score 30+ to win.  Nobody, regardless of scheme, is holding Ohio State to 17 points anymore.  

Joined: 07/06/2008

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schreibee

December 9th, 2018 at 11:43 AM ^

You overlooked the #1 strategy employed by Purdue this year & Iowa last year  - get osu not to care about the game, and to quit when they got behind. 

But no matter HOW many times we lose to them we can never quite seem to get them there! Maybe another decade like the last one might do it?

Doubt it, but hey...

Joined: 11/02/2009

MGoPoints: 21143

The Fan in Fargo

December 8th, 2018 at 10:58 PM ^

That's what happens when you don't come out swinging like men. That's what happens when you have a defensive coordinator who cant line up his first or second cover guys anywhere on the field in special situations and lock down a Paris Campbell or KJ Hill. That's what it looks like when you get bitch slapped by the bully. Ask all of the future NFL d-lineman on the team how that goes. I wouldn't ever brag about going to the NFL after I got destroyed like that. I'm still pissed. If I were an NFL owner I'd look right at that game and ask what the fuck happened that day boys? Did your balls drop off?

Joined: 09/04/2016

MGoPoints: 1877

Don

December 9th, 2018 at 9:30 AM ^

Because of his family's ties to Purdue, getting Karlaftis to flip was always a crapshoot that was dependent on Brohm leaving. Once it was clear Brohm was staying, it was over.

I was skeptical about Harrison before the OSU debacle, and if he commits to us after that, he's an unusual young man. Not holding my breath.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 148358

stephenrjking

December 8th, 2018 at 10:03 PM ^

Wins and losses matter. Nick Saban could have (and might have) called up Hill and said, "you want to lose to Ohio State three times?" He could have even been really positive and complimentary, saying something like, "If you spend four years at Michigan, you can probably beat OSU once." 

And he's not wrong. And in this particular case, the way Michigan's defense was eviscerated could not have helped. Don Brown is still an excellent coach, but it's hard to call him a "genius" anymore. Bama has bad defensive games, too, but not like that. 

The probability that Hill wins more playoff games than Michigan wins against OSU during his career is extremely high.

We are second tier now. I said that the OSU game was huge for reasons like this and unfortunately I was absolutely right.

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143866

Mgoczar

December 8th, 2018 at 10:09 PM ^

Good take .

1. All I would say is that it's easier to be good in basketball than football as you only need one or two difference makers. Football, need it everywhere. 

2. May be programs pay and may be they don't. But how did Alabama become really good like initially as soon as Saban shows up (top recruiting class ?) 

3. This may be the ceiling. 10 wins. Has Michigan ever been better than that tbh ? Without D hill type recruits it's hard to get elite and it's hard to get these athletes without being elite. Catch 22? How to solve? 

4. Go basketball ! Make final four again !

Joined: 09/29/2017

MGoPoints: 4198

uminks

December 8th, 2018 at 10:26 PM ^

'97 co NC was kind of a fluke. We did not have a very dynamic offense but our defense played great all season and we had Woodson, the difference maker. I suppose if Michigan can land a superstar on defense or offense we may be in a position like we were in '97 where everything just fell in place. But Michigan will not be a future AL. We will be more like LC/MO and even BO the average 10 win per season program and if we do have the occasional good year we will make it to the playoffs and get our clocks cleaned by AL.

Joined: 11/10/2009

MGoPoints: 32040

stephenrjking

December 8th, 2018 at 10:44 PM ^

1997 simply needs to remain a memory in the past. The sport is vastly different now from what it was then (when the co-champion was an I-option Nebraska team!). A team built like that would not win a title now, and I long for the day when we can stop the "is this like 1997" comparisons? 

The team wasn't a fluke, but it was a product for its time.

What is needed now is something that is not like the past. In many ways Harbaugh is building that, with quality staff hires and changes to the offensive concepts and delegation of defense. Even his win-by-running emphasis isn't so much a desire to evoke Bo (unlike the Hoke era) as a personal philosophy that he prefers.

But a Michigan that competes with what OSU is now, not to mention the Clemsons and Alabamas, is a Michigan that has a different flavor than the past. 

Joined: 03/15/2012

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M-Dog

December 9th, 2018 at 12:54 AM ^

It worked for Dabo.  He wasn't killing it in recruiting at Clemson.  But he went to scheme that could give him an advantage.  It snowballed from there, and the recruiting caught up.

If we ever want to make it to the CFP, we need either better recruiting or better schemes.  We can't do it with neither.

 

Joined: 07/06/2008

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stephenrjking

December 9th, 2018 at 1:22 AM ^

I'm open to seeing evidence that I'm wrong, but I don't believe there has been anything uniquely advantageous about Clemson's scheme. Competitive? Sure. But the zone read is hardly revolutionary. 

Clemson didn't win because of offensive scheme. It might not have held them back, but they weren't doing stuff that other teams weren't doing.

Joined: 03/15/2012

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M-Dog

December 9th, 2018 at 12:10 PM ^

 

No, there is nothing unique about Clemson's scheme.  That's the point.

They did not do anything revolutionary, they adapted what was appropriate.  They didn't artificially hold themselves back.

Clemson won the NC because of Deshaun Watson.  They put him in a scheme that spread out the field, and then let him leverage his athletic talent, his ability to improvise, and his running skills in addition to his good but not phenomenal passing skills. 

In fact, that is how every team not named Alabama has won a National Championship this decade:

Cam Newton - Auburn
Jameis Winston - FSU
Cardale Jones - OSU
Deshaun Watson - Clemson

If you are not Alabama, there is a formula that works.  It may not be the only formula, but it's the one that has shown evidence to date in the modern era.
 

 

 

Joined: 07/06/2008

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Ghost of Fritz…

December 9th, 2018 at 1:22 PM ^

I think the argument would be that Clemson is/was running a very good scheme that got the most out of its guys when they were first breaking through to the elite level. 

Meanwhile, Michigan is running a scheme that does not maximize the guys on the roster, such as for example, getting DPJ only three touches per game, etc., etc.

Joined: 10/04/2014

MGoPoints: 23880

M-Dog

December 9th, 2018 at 10:23 AM ^

Much different.

And that's just fine.

Oklahoma was a wishbone team.  Ohio State was the inspiration for the saying "three yards and a cloud of dust".  Even Alabama adapted their approach.

It's not unprecedented.  It's not actually that big of a deal unless you make it one.

All those teams adapted because they knew they had to, and they knew they could given the talent they can recruit.  

Harbaugh will also need to adapt, even if it goes against his personal philosophy.  He's a smart guy, but he's not smarter than the entire rest of college football. 

Joined: 07/06/2008

MGoPoints: 257507

stephenrjking

December 8th, 2018 at 10:48 PM ^

Over-signing is overrated and with Michigan's current roster philosophy no longer a factor.

Bama became good quickly because they had some good players because they can always get good players due to how many there are locally and how willing Bama has always been to ignore the rules; Saban brought excellent coaching to those good players, and they became title-contenders right away. Then Saban combined his excellent coaching (and he is a terrific coach) with great recruiters and of course a willingness to break the rules, and the wins started to pile up.

Dirty secret: Bama's recruiting in the first few years of Saban was excellent, but it took a few years for him to get to #1-every-year. Now recruiting is a cinch, because they offer the best place to play even if nobody gets paid.

Re: A dynamic QB--Shea might be that guy, if Harbaugh will let him be. Watson was unquestionably Clemson's difference-maker, and we've seen what OSU does with great QBs. 

Joined: 03/15/2012

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The Chancre

December 9th, 2018 at 8:32 AM ^

here do you have proof that all this cheating is going on?

For years on this blog you advertised yourself as a "pastor"--so come with your irrefutable evidence that a "pastor" should have if he is to be some sort of representative of some sort of deity.

Otherwise, youre just another whiny basement dwelling message board guy.

And guess what--some speculative article by some click bait specialist doesn't work. You are so adamant--let's see some REAL evidence of your claim.

Joined: 11/29/2018

MGoPoints: 121

FrozeMangoes

December 9th, 2018 at 9:59 AM ^

Over signing gives you more chances to find difference makers.  I don't buy that he is that far superior as a coach to everyone else. If he is why didn't he do this at LSU?  Why didn't he do anything with the dolphins? He took over 30 kids in his first class.  Over signing allowed him to get a talent advantage.  Then he got so good and the rules changed so he doesn't need to anymore, he has kids lining up to play in that factory.

He is a great coach but 8'ish more chances a year on 4 stars to find difference makers doesn't hurt. 

I do think Shea could be that guy but I don't think we will ever truly find out. 

Joined: 08/12/2017

MGoPoints: 4183

stephenrjking

December 9th, 2018 at 1:26 AM ^

The points are an unearned glitch. Perhaps that will make you feel better.

I'm not clear what data points you allege that I am cherry-picking. I said before the UM-OSU game that the game was the most important Michigan game since 1997 due to the potential for elevation of the program or for contraction of the program's position, in part due to what it means for recruiting. Not a universally agreed-upon take, sure; if you want to call it "hot," be my guest. If you think Michigan is still on the path to being one of the elite, that's great and I hope you're right, but I don't believe it to be so.

There aren't many recruiting data points yet. But this isn't a good one. 

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143866

Don

December 9th, 2018 at 8:12 AM ^

This is all my fault. My first post after the debacle down in Columbus was that it might contribute to notable decommits, and I mentioned Hill specifically.

Anybody who thinks that game wasn't a huge black eye for the program is whistling past the graveyard. We can recover, but it will take victories over OSU. Unless and until they occur, the rest of the country will look at us as being on a tier lower than OSU.

 

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 148358

Indiana Blue

December 9th, 2018 at 9:17 AM ^

Hey, thanks a lot Don!!!  /S  At least, hopefully you "learned" something.  IMO - this is worse than what happened in ohio ... Hill was going to play immediately.  I'll bet that another Alabama safety  will be getting his "medical" dismissal from the team soon ... fuck you Saban, and the SEC / NCAA who has let you cheat for years and years.  This is awful news !!!

Go Blue!

Joined: 09/19/2010

MGoPoints: 5677

Don

December 9th, 2018 at 9:36 AM ^

"Don Brown is still an excellent coach, but it's hard to call him a "genius" anymore."

Nobody should have been calling him a genius to begin with.

I'm not saying it has any effect on how we play, but one of the most ridiculous aspects of MGoBlog over the past decade is how quickly Michigan players or coaches become idolized with insane, juvenile worship that's completely out of proportion to their actual achievements.

Of course, the downside of that brain-dead idolatry is unhinged hatred and dismissal when the games don't go the way we want them to.

It's almost as though putting people up on a pedestal isn't a sensible thing to do.

Joined: 06/30/2008

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