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Exit Daxton Hill Comment Count

Seth December 8th, 2018 at 9:34 PM

Michigan's 2019 class just took a heartbreaking blow, as five-star/top commit Daxton Hill flipped tonight to Alabama.

Hill is the consensus top safety in the country and likely would have helped Michigan immediately in its quest to suffocate all possible offensive options with more talented players. It especially hurts because of how well Hill would have filled the one hole in Don Brown's system. It triply sucks because #3 overall safety Lewis Cine, a former teammate of Michigan commit Mike Sainristil, appeared to lose interest in Michigan shortly after Hill committed. It quadruply sucks because it's further evidence that our entire reality is some awful child's NCAA 2014 Alabama dynasty.

Hill is the fifth decommit of this class but the first that was truly surprising, and the most impossible to replace. Michigan still has four-star safety Quinten Johnson in the class, as well as viper prospects Joey Velazquez and Amauri Pesek-Hickson, and a slew of lanky prospects from last year. In the past Don Brown has found NFL safeties (John Johnson, Justin Simmons, Obi Melifanwu) in under-scouted athletes but there's no Melifanwus on the board at the moment, unless you count Pesek-Hickson.

With the loss of its only current five-star Michigan's class has dropped out of the top ten in the 247 composite. Michigan is expected to reel in one of its top receiver prospects and one or two giant offensive linemen, and remains the crystal ball leader for five-star DE Zach Harrison.

Comments

Diagonal Blue

December 8th, 2018 at 10:05 PM ^

Alabama has 23 commits, 22 of them are 4 or 5 star recruits, the one three star is a kicker. They are on their way to finishing with the best recruiting class in 247 history. This is what UM has to compete with if it ever is fortunate enough to beat OSU and make it into the CFP, so let that sink in every time someone defends this staff's decision to take a 3 star recruit. This is a catastrophic loss for Harbaugh, no other way to say it. Looks like the 2nd straight year UM is going to whiff on all their big time targets down the stretch. This is a 10 win program TOPS until Harbaugh gets serious about recruiting and modernizes his offense.

What a kick in the nuts. 

Diagonal Blue

December 8th, 2018 at 10:46 PM ^

This is simply not true. No one is forcing the staff to take guys like Tyrece Woods and Quintel Kent and Amauri Hickson. The staff waited forever to offer Lance Dixon and that cost them. They stopped recruiting top 247 WR's like David Bell and Milton Wright who Jeff Brohm happily scooped up to take commitments from the aforementioned Kent and George Johnson. In-state recruiting this year was abysmal as guys like Barnett, Dobbs, Brown and Dixon are all going elsewhere. If UM was beating OSU and making CFP's with this type of recruiting then I wouldn't say a word, but they aren't, and that's why you OSU debacles where 3 stars like Brandon Watson and Devin Gil get abused. Most of the 3 star guys UM is taking don't pan out. There are a couple outliers of course but those are few and far between. Bottom line unless Harbaugh starts recruiting like OSU, UGA, Bama, etc the cap on this program is 10 wins . It's not really debatable anymore.

stephenrjking

December 8th, 2018 at 10:39 PM ^

See, maizen/bluey/shawn, your emphasis on the importance of recruiting has never been completely out of place. But your logic tends to be poor; it's not a "modern" offense that's the issue (doesn't affect Georgia, and it doesn't help Auburn), or "effort" or "getting serious." 

Harbaugh got beat in Columbus and he got beat here. People wish there were some magic formula to make it all better, preferably one that conforms to their priors, but in cases like this, it's just a case of someone working hard and still getting beat. The fact is, Michigan's ceiling is lower than those other programs. Harbaugh may not be able to change that; there may not be anyone who can change that without fundamentally altering how Michigan views itself as an institution that fields a modestly "ethical" program.

That's not to say that there aren't changes that Michigan should make on offense. But "modern" is a red herring. Pretty much proven by Michigan's move to gun-run looks, which are quite "modern." They need to be paired with quality passing concepts (an issue that is hard to properly evaluate, both because Harbaugh deliberately obscures staff responsibilities and because we lack the All-22 film needed to really understand what's going on downfield on a consistent basis) and, more importantly, a willingness to be aggressive on all downs on all drives. 

Regardless, it doesn't change the main problem Michigan has right now: They gave up 62 points to Ohio State. 

Diagonal Blue

December 8th, 2018 at 10:49 PM ^

Is calling me maizen supposed to be some type of burn or act as a means of discrediting my point, because frankly all you're doing is distracting from the conversation at hand and making an ass out of yourself in the process. 

No B1G titles in 15 years

Lost 16 of the last 18 to OSU

Just lost the crown jewel of our recruiting class

But sure, keep up the passive agressive digs that aren't even true in hopes of making yourself feel better about the state of Michigan football.

stephenrjking

December 8th, 2018 at 10:57 PM ^

Gets personal as soon as he's challenged? Check. Doesn't read or address the logic of what he's "disagreeing" with (my position on Michigan having a ceiling as a result of what's happened on the field is pretty clear here and elsewhere on this board)? Check. Reverts to old tropes about getting "outworked?" Check. Consumed with 3-stars as if they're being chosen instead of higher-ranked recruits? Check.

Your problem is, as ever, a combination of assuming you know more than can be known, and choosing to back up your (valid!) points with abuse instead of fact. 

 

Jasper

December 9th, 2018 at 8:34 AM ^

You know, your takes aren't entirely unreasonable. I enjoyed your Cris Carter post.

But, as long your tone stays at "whiny, perseverant adolescent" (which you may actually be), you're going to get lots of down votes. Maybe alter your tone a bit, eh?

ak47

December 8th, 2018 at 11:30 PM ^

It’s never about 1 recruit but about trends. The problem isn’t having a 3 star recruit. It’s that over the last two classes 50% of our recruits have been 3 stars. That makes it our recruiting level, not good staff evaluation. The things people always leave out when they say trust the staff is that the guys we are getting aren’t the first choice of the staff either, they are the backup plans when we get beat for elite recruits by elite schools

uminks

December 8th, 2018 at 10:33 PM ^

Most likely Harrison will now go elsewhere. It would be a lot more fun if we would have beaten OSU and getting ready for the playoffs, and possibly picking up on some more 4 and 5 stars. Now we may plummet down into the lower teens. I just hope the team can play hard and beat FL but I have my doubts.

uminks

December 8th, 2018 at 10:12 PM ^

This is what happens when you get embarrassed in the game against OSU. Oh well, may be if we win the peach bowl we may climb back into the top 10?

Michigan4Harbaugh

December 8th, 2018 at 10:23 PM ^

My god, I can't stand Alabama. They are everything that is wrong with college football. They win games, they win championships, yes. Saban gets the best players, so of course they are going to have success. However, he sucked at MSU, and didn't do jack in the NFL. When your program unabashedly compensates players who attend your program with no repercussions by the NCAA, you have more than a leg up on your competition. I just don't believe that 1 bad game vs Ohio State made his decision. Not a chance. I'm sure they made him a Godfather "deal that you cant refuse" type of offer. As CFB is right now, we will never be able to compete on the level for recruits because Michigan actually has standards.

Michigan4Harbaugh

December 9th, 2018 at 11:20 AM ^

Wrong. Saban was 7-6 in his first year of 2007. Between 2000-2006, Alabama had records of 3-8, 4-9, 6-6, and 6-7. There was even a 7-5 sprinkled in there during that span. Since that 2007 season of 7-6, the most losses Alabama has had has been 3 in 2010. So to say quit whining about bagmen is ridiculous. How else do they go from 7-8-9 loss seasons, to being a football machine? It is quite obvious what started happening around that program in 2007-08.

stephenrjking

December 8th, 2018 at 10:51 PM ^

Saban was quite good at MSU, went to a program that actually took football seriously, and started winning big. He did fine at Miami and would have done better if they had signed Drew Brees instead of Daunte Culpepper.

The fact is, cash flows freely at dozens of programs, particularly in the SEC. Bama isn't winning because it has more cash than, say, Auburn. It wins because for the same cash you can go to a team with better coaching and win big every year. 

And yes, one bad game absolutely can make that difference.

By the way, you don't think there aren't any Michigan players with some extra cash in their pockets, do you?

stephenrjking

December 9th, 2018 at 1:31 AM ^

I was responding to the idea that is often floated that Alabama is unique in the way it cheats, and that this high level of cheating is the only reason for a recruit to flip from Michigan to Alabama.

My contention is that while cheating does occur, it is not a necessary explanation for why recruits flip to Bama. And why a recruit has flipped away from Michigan.

Recruits want to make the NFL and they want to win. Michigan's NFL record is pretty good; our record for winning on the biggest stages isn't so much. A lot of schools can sell the NFL and also beat their rival occasionally. Michigan is struggling in that area.

Ghost of Fritz…

December 9th, 2018 at 4:17 PM ^

Only half right.

There are strong reasons to believe that impermissible benefits cheating can be more complete, sophisticated, organized, etc., at certain places than others. 

You too easily dismiss the role of cheating in building up and then maintaining for such a long period at Alabama what amounts to the greatest run (both on the field and in recruiting) in the history of CFB.

Sure the cheating alone does not explain why Dax Hill in particular flipped. 

But it probably is one of the legs of the stool that turned Alabama into the greatest winner in CFB history.  Without that leg to the stool would have tipped, or at least wobbled, at some point in the last decade.  It helped make and then maintain Bama as a school that gets to the playoff most years and has won multiple NCs, and which in turn allows them to flip almost any guy they want. 

I keep returning to it, but this looks a lot like Lance Armstrong and his 7 TdF "wins."   He was a top 5% cyclist to begin with.  But that alone would not get him 7 TdF "wins." 

The cheating was a leg of his stool.  Most of the other riders used PEDs too, but for many more sporadically than, or at least not was efficiently and systematically as, Armstrong.  He was a phenomenal natural talent, and he trained like crazy.  But he was also the best cheater with PEDs of his time.  All of those had to come together to "win" the TdF 7 times. 

Alabama's run since Saban arrived is just as improbable as 7 consecutive TdF wins.  Saban being a great coach is not enough to produce that result.

Mongo

December 9th, 2018 at 10:29 AM ^

When I read tweets from player flips to Alabama or Clemson, it always says something like "respect my decision as what is best for me and my family" ... I mean that is code to the other recruits.  "Respect" and "my family" have nothing to do with football or college, it is about the money to the recruit's parents. Yes, Alabama also is a football factory but not sure all the players love it there.  The tweets and interviews don't show a lot of genuine "I love my decision" ... it always seems to have a tone of "respect my decision".  Like it is just a business decision versus choosing a college for normal collegiate reasons.  

If that is how the most elite players make their college choice, we will never have a rooster filed with elite players like Alabama, Clemson, etc.  And the CFP with only 4 teams only reinforces that standing as only the elite teams who recruit like Bama will make the playoffs.  College football is going to implode with this structure.  Expanding the playoffs will allow the second tier teams to better attract recruits and have a shot at an upset to change this narrative.  Not many schools are going to pay their way into the competition. Call it ethics, call it whatever but not all schools will support its boosters illegally paying a player's family for the rights to their son.

Boomer519

December 8th, 2018 at 10:51 PM ^

Look at what Hills dad said about Michigan though and why they wanted to come here. Education, the care for the players, and running a pretty successful program while being ethical or something along those lines. Now just weeks later he's verbaling to Bama? Hell Bama is the third ranked school in its own state for academics and we know Saban ain't running an ethical program. 

stephenrjking

December 9th, 2018 at 12:13 AM ^

They liked all that stuff. For real. 

But Hill is the kind of player that should expect to go to the NFL. Football is job #1. 

It was for Rashan Gary. He cared about academics (remember in the Amazon doc, they spent a lot of time with him and his academic advisor? That wasn't fake). But he's going to the NFL. He stands to make MILLIONS of dollars. 

Bama can send him to the NFL and he can win, a lot. Right now it's hard for him to have confidence that Michigan is going to win a lot.

Do any of us genuinely believe that we'll even make the playoff in the next four years? Bama has never missed. 

ComputerEngineer

December 8th, 2018 at 10:25 PM ^

I didn't expect the fallout from Ohio State to take this long to hit recruiting.

 

I wish the NFL would let guys go to the draft after one year. Developing talent is the only way we'll ever be able to compete with Alabama. We'll never win a head to head recruiting battle.

ghostofhoke

December 8th, 2018 at 10:31 PM ^

That’s what happens when you can’t win a big fucking game and you’re stuck playing in the Peach Bowl rather than for another national championship. I love Michigan with all my heart and am as proud of my degree as I am of anything I own but I’d do the same fucking thing if I was a football player. Period. 

Jasper

December 8th, 2018 at 10:34 PM ^

It could be worse. Imagine him flipping to OSU or Notre Dame.

- - -

If anyone is interested in the history of recruiting dong punches, go to 24/7 and look at Michigan's 2015 decommits. At least then you could blame it on a coaching change.

- - -

If you had told me back in December 2014 that Jim Harbaugh's ceiling would be, basically, "Lloyd Carr," I would honestly have been a little disappointed. I understand the culture of Michigan football in the modern era, but I thought Harbaugh could possibly nudge the program a little higher. I've nearly lost hope. (Also, I'm not much in the mood to hear about Lloyd's "natty." That was his lightning-in-a-bottle year. Maybe Harbaugh will have one, too.)

uminks

December 8th, 2018 at 10:41 PM ^

Overall, the program is much improved with Harbaugh over RR and Hoke. We are basically back where we were before under Carr. If Harbaugh can start winning the B1G every other year and reach the playoffs, I think our recruiting will improve and Harbaugh will be back to a Bo type level, which will be good.

Gulogulo37

December 9th, 2018 at 12:46 AM ^

I'll keep repeating it but we're not at Harbaugh's ceiling and it's dumb to think so. Michigan's offense vastly improved over last year with an upgrade at QB and with Warriner and not losing too many players. Next year we'll likely have the same QB but now better able to run a passing game like Harbaugh wants, continuity with Warriner, and almost everyone else back on offense. I expect the offense to take another big leap next year. Barring tons of injuries, if Michigan doesn't have a top 10 S&P+ offense I'd be really surprised.

DeepBlueC

December 9th, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^

You saw the passing game that Harbaugh wants this year.  Dink and dunk most of the time, with a strict limit on deep throws and using elite receivers to their capability.  Patterson is a solid QB, but that's all.  He's not a difference maker, he's not a big game player.  Nothing is going to happen to improve that.  We are still completely lacking in speed and home run threats on offense.  And our defense certainly isn't going to get any better.  

Harbaugh has peaked.  That's the unfortunate reality.