Who Stays and Who Goes?
Well, its that time of the year that we all start thinking about who may or may not enter the draft this year. You've gotta think that after this performance some guys that may have been on the fence will be coming back.
Offense:
Patterson- We had some early reports that he was staying followed by reports that he's was probably going. After yesterday's game I think it's probably close to 70-30 that he stays. The talent is obvious but the polish is not there for him to be taken in the top 2 rounds. I think he comes back.
Gentry- Had some serious drop problems and when you're projected to be an offensive receiving weapon that doesn't mesh. Outside of his height and relatively good athleticism I see no aspect of his game that is NFL ready. Shaky hands. Mediocre blocker. No way he is NFL ready. 80-20 that he's back.
Bredeson- I was very surprised that Kiper had him as the #3 rated OG for this coming draft. I think he's a 4 year player and has a chance to really improve his draft stock with another year. I think he had a pretty good year but its obvious that he isn't a finished product. He should return to lead what could be a pretty damn good offensive line unit next year. 70-30 that he returns.
Defense:
Gary- Such an enigma. Off the charts athleticism that just hasn't been matched with productivity. I've loved watching the guy and have no doubt that he has the talent to be a good NFL player. That being said, I think yesterday's game is going to take him out of the top 10 pick discussion. I still think its about a 95% chance he leave but the lack of production couple with a strong dline draft its going to push him to probably mid 1st round area.
Bush- I'd say he's almost assuredly gone and to be honest I think he has a real chance to be drafted higher than Gary. Very good player that should put up some strong combine numbers. Production matches his athleticism. Been a real pleasure watching this guy in a winged helmet and I hope he crushes it in the League.
Hill & Long- I'll put these two together because I believe they are in an almost identical situation. Both are super productive players but both are also undersized for the NFL game. I personally think they each could use another year in college and would expect their draft grades to come back between 3rd and 5th round picks. At those draft spots I think they'd be best served returning. That being said, I've always got the impression that they've each been leaning towards entering the draft. I think its a toss up and will put it at 50-50.
Hudson- I don't see any chance that he enters the draft. He lacks a true position and quite frankly did not meet expectations this year. Still love him as a player but I don't think he's going anywhere. I'd put it at about 90% that he returns.
November 25th, 2018 at 6:46 AM ^
They should all stay after yesterday's pitiful performance. it won't happen as millions of dollars await them...
I think Bush and Gary go realistically. Hoping the corners stay.
November 25th, 2018 at 9:48 AM ^
College statistical performances are not nearly as heavily considered in the NFL draft.
Even Heisman finalist QBs sometimes have zero consideration at their position in the NFL.
NFL teams will drool over Gary’s physical prowess.
The combine also serves to see if any players “jump out” in spite of punching below their weight-class statistically.
-Bush and Gary should go no question.
-Gentry should do the eval. because at 6’8” he is still a potentially a matchup nightmare. The thing is, his jump-out characteristic, his height/weight/speed, isn’t going to “improve” after another year. Yes his blocking/catching/route/etc can/needs to, but the question is will NFL OCs take a chance on it now versus later/needing to see better catching first.
-Hudson should absolutely take a serious look and possibly go if it looks good, he’s absolutely physically ready, Hudson’s statistics/non-statistics were based on simply on scheme. If he returns it will be because the “no true position” knock by NFL evaluators will force him back. But physically, he’s ready.
-Long and Hill are more of an enigma, physically and experience wise, i think they are ready, but I am always wary of their PFF grade-outs 1st because it’s just marketing and 2nd because it is absolutely inseperable from UM’s DL (save for the OSU-game) high-quality pass-rush hurrying/worrying/forcing the QB to make low-percentage, desperate passes. I’d have to re-watch more of the last game (which i don’t want to do) to see how they looked in coverage against a comfortable, accurate QB. They both could go, they both could stay. Their sizes alone won’t put them in the first round, but staying another year could absolutely improve their technique and make them more likely to stick around an NFL roster for longer
-Bredeson can absolutely go right now, no question about it. But OL can also vastly improve their draft stock and get the much needed reps with lower risk than most other positions. He should do an eval. see where he stands and/or if he’s a combine freak, consider going because he could more convincingly solidify a bump into the early rounds with a good physical combine showing.
November 25th, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^
everyone should come back. Once they leave they will never play for a team again.
November 25th, 2018 at 7:08 AM ^
Spot on - I think you hit pretty accurate percentages here, but would bump Gary up to 99%. The CBs are the real wildcard - for themselves and for the competitiveness of next year’s team. We are going to be really good again next year - especially if Patterson stays. He is another wildcard, and I argue his return could be the only silver lining from yesterday’s loss that I can currently get my head around. Please come back to Michigan Mineral King.
November 25th, 2018 at 7:13 AM ^
Shea could use another year and likely makes a huge move if he comes back. Gentry had a rough day. Each drop turned into a huge momentum shift with our D getting torched.
Bush is going to be amazing in the NFL. Gary is gone.
I wish Long and Hill had identical twins for our defensive backfield yesterday. We could have used more speed. Maybe Ambry should have been on the field. Watching slow guys chase fast guys was not fun.
November 25th, 2018 at 7:30 AM ^
He’s not making a huge move in 2019 if the offense stays the same.
November 25th, 2018 at 7:42 AM ^
Shea can improve even if the offense stays stuck in their old school mindset.
November 25th, 2018 at 7:50 AM ^
It's not like the offense faltered despite Shea.
He missed some big passes and a couple open receivers.
I didn't like the play action call on 2nd and 2 on yesterday's opening drive and I don't think anyone's happy about the offensive gameplan. But I also don't think it went so far as to have been a season long problem that held back the development of Shea Patterson.
November 25th, 2018 at 9:31 AM ^
Blaming Shea is crazy. Pass protection was brutal all day, from that initial 2nd and 2 to the end. When he had time to step into a throw (and wasn't hit while releasing) he was accurate. The problem was, that was only the case about half the time.
November 25th, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^
I agree, this was the main issue. Haskins had all day to throw and Shea barely had 2 seconds. You give any QB with a decent arm that kind of time to throw and he's going to carve you up.
November 25th, 2018 at 10:05 AM ^
The game plan wasn't Shea's fault. If you fail to pick on the defense's weak areas, while also failing to pick up the obvious - blitzing LBs at the first recognition of pass - you leave your QB vulnerable to a poor game.
November 25th, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
Shea could use another year but he’s probably gone. Throwing the ball 20 times a game isn’t going to do much to showcase his talent and prep him for the NFL. Now if he goes to the NFL he can get considerably more reps as a full time football player, even if it’s just practice, than he can as a student athlete balancing a college schedule.
November 25th, 2018 at 5:56 PM ^
I like Shea but I don't see him as a NFL qb. He should stay another year and enjoy his time at Michigan
November 25th, 2018 at 7:19 AM ^
Stay or go, we support you and ty for your time here.
Go Blue!
November 25th, 2018 at 7:40 AM ^
I thought this was about the coaches after that disaster of a gameplan on both sides of the ball. Gary and Bush should go. Everybody else should come back and improve their draft status.
November 25th, 2018 at 7:51 AM ^
Agreed. I did too.
Only coaches moving on I think are the ones who choose to do so.
Though a lot of people forget that Harbaugh said goodbye to a long time friend and ally last season, so it's not unprecedented. But again, I think the people who call for Pep Hamilton's head don't really know why or what it is he does.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:02 AM ^
November 25th, 2018 at 8:22 AM ^
Isn't that part of the problem? Pep is getting 1 mil a year and no one knows what he even does? The people who aren't calling for his head don't know what he does either.
November 25th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
I don’t think even Pep knows what exactly it is he does. You don’t find that to be problematic for the program?
November 25th, 2018 at 7:53 AM ^
November 25th, 2018 at 8:02 AM ^
How is Bush not ready? He's probably a top-10 pick with production to back it up, and off the charts athleticism that will shine at the combine.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:24 AM ^
Yup. I would argue that Bush is MORE ready than Gary. Both are off to the NFL I’m sure and I wish them the best of luck.
November 25th, 2018 at 9:46 AM ^
I agree. Bush’s production speaks for itself.
November 25th, 2018 at 9:47 AM ^
I’m curious as to why you have this opinion. I’m in the minority here, I’m sure, but Gary hasn’t been that productive when you compare him to other d-line prospects around the country..... and I’m not just talking about this year. Another thing I was hoping to see over the last few years is Gary improving his upper body physique. That hasn’t happened, and it’s something that’s being discussed amongst NFL scouts.
November 25th, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^
It’s hard to reshape your upper body when your shoulder is constantly injured. I don’t think we ever got to see Gary at 100%. I hope he gets a fat NFL contract based on promise and combine numbers, because I don’t think his body can last until his second contract.
November 25th, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
Was his shoulder injured prior to the end of his sophomore year? Honestly, it very well could’ve been, but I thought it happened towards the end of last year. The reason I bring up upper body physique is in the NFL, you better have some serious upper body strength to be able to drive and shed those monsters lining across from you. You look at the top D-Line prospects, and current NFL DE’s, they’re jacked.
November 25th, 2018 at 7:56 AM ^
Fire Pep
November 25th, 2018 at 8:00 AM ^
Your logic on the CBs is interesting.
If you believe they are undersized for the NFL game, what do you suppose another year in college is going to do to address that?
November 25th, 2018 at 8:04 AM ^
if you can go in the first two days I generally think you should go. So I’d say Gary and Bush. Bush will be tough to replace but Gary won’t be missed. I appreciate what he’s done for us but he’s been a massive disappointment. We’ll always have his 2017 OSU game though.
Hill and Long aren’t ready. Especially Hill. Undersized and grab happy in a league that no longer allows that. They’d both probably get drafted though. Patterson won’t get drafted and Gentry shouldn’t but will since he’s 6’8.
November 25th, 2018 at 9:23 AM ^
Replacing a healthy Winovich’s production will be the toughest part on the D-Line level.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:06 AM ^
I agree with almost everything you said. I think Gary is at best a 2nd round pick. He has showed me nothing special in his 3 years here. All he wants to do is try his speed rush around the tackle which pushes him out of most plays.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:07 AM ^
I’d be shocked if long went. He finally goes up against a decent WR yesterday and got roasted
November 25th, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^
Long toasted? Maybe a time or two but nothing major. It was easy. Pick on Watson, LB’s, and safeties.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:07 AM ^
Think you nailed it. Would be shocked to see Gentry or Patterson go. Mildly surprised to see Bredenson go. Not surprised if Hill or Long go. Shocked if Bush or Gary come back.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:08 AM ^
I’m more interested in which coach’s stay and go.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:15 AM ^
Coaches
November 25th, 2018 at 9:15 AM ^
Indeed. iPhone autocorrect for the loss.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:14 AM ^
Gary will be an extremely interesting case. He'll test off the charts at the combine, show some things in shorts, but when you put in the game tape, I just don't think he lives up to the hype. I know teams focused a lot of attention on him, but he could go games without much more than a mention in the broadcast. I'm sure he'll be drafted in the 1st round, but I'd be cautious with him.
Bush on the other hand should absolutely go. Only knock against him is his height, but the dude can straight out ball. He fits the new age linebacker mold of a smaller, quicker guy who can cover sideline to sideline. He will be a fun one to watch at the next level.
For the sake of next year's team, I really hope both corners come back. They will be integral in that defense being a top-10 unit or one that struggles a bit early on.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:15 AM ^
Both corners are gone. Gary, Bush , Hudson, Patterson gone. Weak QB class get paid if you have the chance
promote Mcwlein to OC with full scheme authority. Give Pep the WR’s
November 25th, 2018 at 9:32 AM ^
Did you see his offenses at Florida?
November 25th, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^
Um, McElwain was fired by Florida bc his offenses were so consistently inept and unimaginative.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:30 AM ^
Good post. Patterson and Gentry are not NFL players. Patterson is undersized and slow with decisions. He also, it appears, to struggle with wanting to take hits and plays slower than most guys that make a QB to WR switch in the league. Gentry can't block which is a death sentence for NFL tight ends. They are, however, very good college players and will be important to have back.
Bredeson needs his senior year.
Gary needs to go. He gets a pass on his performance based on his measurables. One more year of being invisible on the field would make people start to question how all this translates to the game. Not worth the risk to come back.
Bush and Long are ready. It's worth the risk for Hill and Hudson to come back and be a bigger part of the defense.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:42 AM ^
Spot on with Patterson. He is not going to play on Sundays. He is an okay college player. He might not even start next year if he stays at Michigan.
November 25th, 2018 at 9:44 AM ^
Exactly. Like, Alabama in years past put out bigger taller guys with the same stats as Patterson and they're out of the league. How is Patterson gonna start in the NFL how he is now? He'll be eaten alive.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:31 AM ^
Anyone know if Joe Moorhead is happy at Miss St? You know. Just asking for a friend....
November 25th, 2018 at 9:16 AM ^
Wouldn't that be something.
November 25th, 2018 at 10:26 AM ^
Is that friend the AD at PSU?
November 25th, 2018 at 8:36 AM ^
The only thing that game showed me was Michigan needs a better O Line and D Line.
November 25th, 2018 at 9:02 AM ^
100 % agree, that was the difference in the game
Zero QB pressure for us, pressure all day for OSU
November 25th, 2018 at 9:23 AM ^
For whatever reason the team lost it's mojo after PSU. Concerns popped up vs. Rutgers and Indiana but we dismissed those as the team just looking forward to OSU. But both Rutgers and Indiana ran the ball effectively and the pass rush dried up too.