MSU Week - Reasons to be Pessimistic?

I think it will be critical in this game we punch them in the mouth early and get at least a 10 or 14 point lead before they can score.  Slow starts are a killer against them on the road.  Also, this will be no game for Michigan to play conservative.  We know MSU won't.  They always pull trick plays out of the bag against us and you can count on it this Saturday.  Michigan needs to take advantage of their weak secondary and hit several long passes.  Other than that, if Michigan's OL comes ready to play, we win no matter what luck they get.  

I am not  very optomistic..Michigan will find MORE creative ways to lose in EL..mabye I have just been conditoned the last decade when it comes to beating our rivals..stupid penalties lack of creative offense, 4th quarter collapses etc etc

1. Breaking tendencies. MSU good at taking away what we do well. We need to break tendency. I think we will though and surprise them. We are still a couple of years away from telling them the play and dare them to stop.

2. Pregame advantages disappear. MSU and a few other teams have done certain things well when they have not done that all year. I expect their running game to do well even though they are bad at it. We have a good chance of making half time adjustments and we have shown it this year including at ND.

Dantonio's weather machine will bring a monsoon/blizzard combo of biblical proportions

I can see us having a tough time running the ball against the Spartans and if Patterson is bugging out of the pocket because of pressure or time, Michigan could struggle to score.

But, it is really hard for me to see MSU's offense doing much of anything. They can't run the ball and can't protect the passer. Best bet might be what the State fan suggested: chuck it up to Felton 20 times and hope he pulls down 50% of them. 

Sure, there are reasons to be pessimistic.  You could say probably more reasons to be optimistic.  It's life in football.

Regarding #2, Harbaugh would be 3-0 vs. MSU and Mark Dantonio if:

a. Fluke Special Teams breakdown didn't happen as time expired.

b. Michigan could have presented a decent, functional, upright QB in 2017 game vs. MSU

Shit happens in college football. How likely is either to repeat itself third time in 2018?

Unlikely.

This time the pressure is really on MSU (4-2).

MSU's lone area of dominance right now was rushing defense, 1st in the nation, but they are officially one of the worst passing defenses in the nation.

Except MSU's statistically impressive rushing defense was exposed last Saturday vs. Penn State (205 yards rushing surrendered at 6.4 ypc).

In total defense and scoring defense, Michigan is decisively better than what MSU has shown thus far and against much better competition.

Also, offensively Michigan is by far and away better than MSU in both passing and rushing offense and against superior comparative competition.

The only way MSU wins this game in East Lansing is if Michigan defeats itself with turnovers, penalties and unusual bad luck. That seems highly unlikely, even if Dantonio unloads the kitchen sink and motivates the shit out of his players. The motivation and anger stoking only leads to penalties anyway, which MSU cannot afford.

Every week Michigan seems to be improving, against tougher and tougher competition. MSU won last week in State College mainly because PSU's pass defense is equivalent to Indiana bad.

Dantonio's luck has run out IMO.

Michigan isn't fielding a shitty OL, a shitty QB, a clueless and non-disciplined defense or penalty prone secondary anymore.

So Dantonio may try to run right at Michigan like he did in 2016 with a scripted drive, but it won't work for the course of the game. Felton Davis is the main weapon, and Michigan is just going to shut him down with David Long.

That leaves the MSU OL giving LeWerke time to throw to others, or LeWerke's legs.

These are offset by Don Brown, Michigan's superior DL talent and Michigan's LB corp which are going to chase Lewerke into the turf.

Yes, Dantonio will have them seething from the start. But I think this is going to be that long-awaited Michigan blowout of Sparty in Spartan Stadium, for which many will be relieved, but then kind of feel malaise about because it dawns on us Michigan State is in fact just not very good.

Michigan will win.

We won the last time the game was played in EL.  This team learned how to survive on the road vs. Northwestern.  Confidence is high.  Gary should be back.  Just go play your game.

I fear a targeting/ejection call against Patterson or Higdon.

(not a typo, also not completely kidding)

I am worried about this game. People call it luck, but the truth is there's a reason people expect games against MSU to be ugly: MSU forces teams to play their style. That's not luck .. it's strategy. 

Somebody threw out the possibility that there will be 20-25 mph winds this weekend in East Lansing. I hope that's not the case. That's going to make it tough to throw the football. That plays right into the type of game MSU wants to play.  

Dantonio treats this game like the Super Bowl and over-prepares for it every year. We'll likely see a number of looks and an overall level of intensity from MSU that they haven't shown anyone else this season. The same can be said for Michigan, but to a lesser extent since we have at lease one other rivalry game that outranks MSU in order of priority.

6. Lewerke, who has looked pretty bad all year, will likely find a way to start throwing darts into tight windows against UM secondary. UM 'has to' put pressure on him - he's been playing w/happy feet and a quick erratic trigger this year in the face of any meangingful pass rush.

As good as UM looked against Wisky, Dantonio (who always seems to have the same 'just smelled someone's rotten fart' facial expression) always puts together a good game plan that confounds UM at some level. In game adjustments (by UM) will be necessary.

Here's hoping we see the UW game UM's imaginative offense and UM's 2nd half defense, and UM 'should' win by two TD's or more.

It's going to be a cold rain on a grass field. Both favor MSU.

Everyone on this message board (and zach shaw at 247) is GREATLY overrating our offensive line.  They appear to be taking care of business because they have played Wisonsins worst line in 79 years and a 1 man Maryland defensive line.  And cupcakes before that (except ND).

Our line play is definitely better.  No doubt.  But holy shit pump the fucking brakes people!  Our line is still average, and people are throwing out some crazy shit right now.

Michigan States front will make you realize how good our line is again, as you WILL be screaming at your TV set.

But we still win.  

Felton Davis is a future pro and worrisome.  But I think we're going to make it difficult to get him the ball with D line pressure on Lewerke.

This game is never fuckin' easy anymore.  And it pisses me off.  I want to trounce MSU so bad but they just don't let it happen.

Rain....Please no shit weather in the trash bowl.  Let the superior team win without the elements negating the talent gap!

Get ready for the Dantonio classic:  rain, loading the box, 347 trick plays, chippiness, unbelievable luck, and an afternoon of seeing his smug face.  We need the ultimate game plan this week.

As much as I don't want to see it rain, I don't get why people think it's an advantage for MSU.  If it's a monsoon like last year it will limit both teams' passing.   This bodes well for Michigan for a couple of reasons:

1.  Both teams have very good and comparable run defenses.   However, Michigan's rushing offense has been far better than MSU's this year.   Run-heavy game for both teams:  Advantage Michigan.

2.   If both teams are heavily reliant and one-dimensional with the run it will result in a lot of stalled drives.   This means both teams will be punting quite a bit.   Advantage:   Michigan - bigly.

I don't think they're very good this year. 

Weather looks like shit, so that sucks. 

I worry our WR’s won’t be able to get open.

i worry our oline will struggle some...

i worry about fades, jump balls, and lewerke scrambling. 

I think we win, but I hate this week.