MSU Week - Reasons to be Pessimistic?

The only thing that I am worried about is that Mark D really may have made an actual deal with the devil that allows him to beat us annually.  Barring that, I am no more worried than I am for any other game.  

Lets assume that all of Sparty's lofty defensive rankings are legit.  Fine.  They will keep our offense in check and hold us to 21 points or so.  (Note that Utah St. put up 31, Indiana put up 21, Central Michigan put up 20 and NW put up 29).  Are we really going to give up more than that?  7 points off of a first possession scripted drive.  Another 7 off of some Mark D I-saved-this-for-michigan-because-it-is-our-superbowl nonsense.  Any maybe another score at most.  

Even if they hod our offense somewhat in check, I just don't see their offense being able to handle our D, especially if we get close to a full strength Rashan Gary back.

Shea has been struggled against zone, I know quarters is kind of hybrid but the blueprint is there to make him hesitant and smack him when he breaks the pocket. MSU has the ability to bottle the run game and make this a low scoring game. 

I don’t expect a huge day from their offense but with I could see Lewerke extend drives with his legs and agressive 4th down calls and trick plays from Dantonio could capitalize on their opportunities in front of a juiced home crowd. It might be enough to win especially if the turnovers break the Spartans way. 

Both of Dantonio's wins over Harbaugh were incredibly lucky. There's really no other way to spin that. On top of that, it was against Michigan teams that were nowhere near as complete as this one is. Remember, Rudock hadn't quite had his awakening when we played them in 15. This was the guy who couldn't hit Deveon Smith on an easy flare against UNLV. He missed wide open Chesson deep against MSU. 

OTOH Mork's luck never seems to run out. So who knows 

Sitting at my desk LOL'ing at the Felton Davis bit:

5. Felton Davis is a nightmare matchup, at 6'4" 200lbs. He has 474 yards receiving with 4 TDs, including the game winning score vs PSU. He also has 50 rushing yards and a rushing TD (relevant because Michigan gave up two chunk plays to Wisconsin WRs on running plays to the edges).

Guy is goofy as hell and our corners will toy with him. Lewerke is also hot trash and he's going to be running for his life all day.

If MSU wins, it'll be because (1) they have an entire half's worth of offense designated for this game, (2) Patterson gets a case of the turnovers, or (3) a monsoon decides to make the game into a random coin flip.

Considering that we're objectively much better and Harbaugh is just now adding layers to the offense, I don't see how MSU makes up the difference with a few scripted plays born from obsession.

Michigan is gonna loose cuz ur trash and all ways will b trash!

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Eh, I think Michigan are deserved 7 point favorites in this game. But for MSU to win, we'll have to do what we did against PSU: Muck it up and hope for the best. 

MSU can shut down the run. Even against PSU, take away 2 big plays and PSU was at 30 carries for ~90 yards on the ground. And McSorely couldn't do anything against us.

If Michigan lights 1st down on fire (like they did on the road at NW remember), and sets up MSU for 3rd and long blitzes, MSU could kill a few Michigan drives. 

On defense, maybe this is a repeat of the 2015 MSU/Michigan game, where MSU gets a decent amount of yards by just throwing to Davis every play and hoping for 40% completions. Worked against Jordan Lewis, could work against Hill/Long.

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But I gotta be honest, MSU is in bad shape in all three phases of the game. Have you seen our punter? It's either a 40 yard line drive, or a 25 yard line drive, there's no other options. I think we will be able to muck it up enough to keep it competitive, but I don't think MSU scores more than 17, and I don't think Michigan scores less than 23

One of the worst offensive teams in Michigan history played them pretty tight last year. Let that sink in.

I don't care about S&P+ ratings. MSU will play hard. Michigan will play hard. Michigan is much improved from last year and MSU isn't. It might be a tight game, and probably pretty uncomfortable for the gutless BPONE crew, but Michigan is favored for a reason. 

“the best front 7 Michigan has seen since ND”

Uh, no

yes Dantonio 11-0 ATS, they have a great D and its on the road.

we've yet to play a great game on the road this year

MSU has a great run defense and Michigan is very run heavy.

for some reason, Michigan gets sloppy protecting the ball.

nordin not kicking fgs well

Lj Scott will be back most likely so that may boost the MSU run game a bit.

However...

michigan will have the best defense that MSU has played.

Since penn state laid an egg, Michigan has the best offense that MSU has played.

MSU has not dominated any team in any way.

michigan wins 24-20. (But, up 24-13 late in the 4th qtr, giving up a late garbage td to MSU that will have them covering the spread).

This thread is a good example of what is wrong with our fan base. Perhaps you would enjoy jumping on WebMD and doing some research on potential illnesses you may have.

People still lean on how Dantonio beat up RR and Hoke. The days of MSU physically dominating UM ended the day Harbaugh took over. They haven't pushed around a Michigan team since 2014. Maybe instead of talking about how UM needs to be ready for Sparty, maybe, just maybe they need to be ready for us.

Dantonio is 2-2 against Michigan coaches not named "Rodriguez" or "Hoke."  And those two wins came (1) as a result of the flukiest play in college football history; and (2) against John O'Korn in a monsoon.

Dantonio's career against Michigan has benefited from a Faustian Bargain the likes of which I cannot possibly imagine.  And while he's clearly a good coach, his luck against Michigan ends this weekend, and likely will never be seen again.   

Because terrible people are given nice things all the time.

I will be nervous until there are three zeros on the clock and we have more points than they do. This game is a war every single year, and that won’t change.

Supposed to be very windy with strong gusts. Yay more trash bowl... luckily michigan hasnt been having to take down field shots a lot this year. That could be a factor and rain. I'm okay if michigan wants to get in a grind it out game here. States Rush D is solid but they just got carved up by PSU and they havent really played anyone who runs the ball. Their numbers are inflated. Michigan finally has a center and guards able to deal with the hyper active dbl A gap blitz that MSU loves to run. It wont look pretty but Micigan wins this game score says its close but it never feels close. Similar to 2016. MSU makes you play ugly football. I don't think their front 7 is much better than Northwesterns its not to ND's level however they're sound they don't make a ton a mistakes. Felton Davis will be a problem all game. Make someone else beat you don't let him make big plays.

Worst case scenario:

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Harbaugh and Pep are bad play callers, but I think they will try to run at MSU too much. It's necessary to set up some other stuff and keep them honest, but MSU's DL is good at what it does and the LBs come down hair on fire to stop the run. If you don't get a hat on Bachie, he's going to ruin running plays.

They'll do their quarters coverage and drop LBs into lanes which we've seen Patterson hesitate at a few times this year (not to a scary level or anything, just not always super confident in it). If the WRs and TEs struggle to get open, it's going to be a slog because that's how you get after MSU (though I have no idea what happened with the PSU game since I don't have BTN).

They'll scheme together 2 good drives that end in points. FGs and TOD like 2016 or TDs like 2017 will make a huge difference. Davis is a problem and generally speaking Lewerke throws up a few jump balls per game. Again, if 2017 happens again when the MSU WRs catch those jump balls, that will be concerning. A lot of back shoulder fades and slants.

Nordin still being somewhat scattershot is also a concern.

Have to absorb the big shots MSU will take early. Reverses, wacky screens, an the like. Take those on, don't break, get a lead and I think MSU struggles to come back. They'll throw out 1/2 their playbook (running plays) and if they can't get completions they're screwed.

last year we played a tight game (where a semi competent QB probably wins for us) against an arguably better msu team than they have this year.  We are loads better this year, they are not.  

However, my #1 concern is penalties regressing to the mean.  I could hardly believe the lack of penalties called in the Wiscy game.  Refs will have a tight leash so as to not allow the game to get out of control.  Best to just bury them early so this will not have an effect.

I can think of a ton of reasons why we can lose this game: 

1) Road game, where Michigan is yet to prove it can put a complete game together against a competent opponent. MSU is a more than competent opponent. 

2) Can we win "the big game"? Wisconsin was big. This is bigger, especially now that MSU got back pretty much everything to play for after beating PSU. Michigan has tended to fall apart in the biggest games, or has just not been able to finish. MSU has been the opposite. 

3) You're playing a team that spends 365 days a year, 366 in leap years, preparing for you. Hating your guts. Vomiting with rage at the sheer thought of you. Can we match their intensity? Most years, we haven't been able to. But I don't think this team will be starved of motivation after last year's shit show. 

4) That team is coached by a man who has unparalleled success in this rivalry. He knows how to win this game, and he knows how to get his team to play its absolute best against Michigan. Every. Single. Time. 

5) You can talk about talent differential all you want. That means nothing against a Mark Dantonio-coached MSU team. There are countless instances of his teams beating other teams that, on paper, are far more talented. He went into Columbus with a backup QB and smacked around arguably the most talented OSU team ever assembled. 

For every reason we can win this game, there is another reason we can lose it. We've got a great chance to win, but this is going to be, in my opinion, a lot harder to win than Wisconsin was. 

At the end of the day football is about executing with aggression. There's a good chance that MSU will do that pretty well - and better than in other games this year - because of how much of a focus point this game is for them. There's a still reasonable chance that Michigan will struggle with that and won't be as tuned in - classic Michigan road nerves. That alone would make it a game MSU can win.

I see this game as similar to Northwestern, except I think MSU generally has somewhat better talent than Northwestern and the atmosphere at MSU is bound to favor the home team more.

I think what we are seeing this year (as it progresses, obviously) is that the Offensive line is able to make the "in game adjustments" that are needed. Like on Saturday night, in the 1st qtr, the only thing that seemed to work on the 1st few drives were C gap plays. Soin the final 3 quarters they ran about 4 plays all at the C gap. And we all know the results. 

Those adjustments that we were doing on defense last year and the year prior?? Yeah, we doing them on both side now. Hide your couches in East Lansing, this ones gonna leave a mark (dantonia) disappointed. 

Meeechigan 35 - MSU - 9

I have a feeling there'll be a late "Sparty Nooo..." like a goal line fumble or pick six that will win the game for us, getting things back to normal in this rivalry.

My pessimism? 

MSU destroyed any passion I had in this rivalry. I think it's laughable MSU still has an athletic department. I don't care about our record the past decade, MSU's knack to win games they shouldn't, Mark Dantonio's smug face, or any of the other things that pissed me off before. 

I see those colors, that logo, and all I can do is shake my head and ask how? Why? It's so much bigger than football, and I just cant get passionate enough over what in comparison is a silly game. 

There's my pessimism. 

Double Davis and blitz that oline every play. That's all I got.

We can't lose this game though. So pointless to speculate. 

Same reason as always.  MSU has no rival in it's ability to bring a game down to the gutter, into that nasty ditch along a long-abandoned road.  They desire to turn Sport into a dust up between Les Claypool and Bill Lambier.

This is a near certainty Saturday, unless Michigan whips out a long passing game that is a reasonable simile to thwacking it's junk on Dantonios forehead.

This is my one and only concern, but it's legitimate and could certainly cause us to lose.  It has before.

Quit blaming the rain.

I don't understand how the narrative on this blog for the last year has been that the rain was the major factor in our loss to MSU.  I was at the game.  In the first half, before the heavy rains, MSU dominated.  Not only were they up 14-3 but if I recall correctly, a wide open TD pass was dropped by an MSU receiver.  (BTW, a lucky break for us!)  So, we easily could have been down 21-3. 

So, please stop the excuses.  And, our coaching staff cost us the game in the second half by continuing to try to pass with a subpar QB in a monsoon. 

Having said all that, Michigan will dominate Saturday.  The talent gap is so significant that nothing will prevent a solid Michigan victory.  GO BLUE!!