Big 10 Holds Drawn Per Play vs Sack rating. Michigan is an Extreme Outlier.
Taken from Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/9kr0kn/b10_holds_drawn_per_play_v…
October 2nd, 2018 at 2:32 PM ^
And OSU doesn't create pressure with blitzes and stunts?
Anyway all of this might be a reasonable explanation if Michigan were, say, a little bit higher on the y axis than PSU. Maybe 100 plays/hold. But Michigan is way the hell off in its own lonely corner here - that's much less plausible.
October 2nd, 2018 at 7:27 PM ^
No. M gets too many sacks for your theory to be true.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:56 PM ^
My blood pressure while watching games came up with the same result.
October 2nd, 2018 at 12:57 PM ^
We really should leave the Big 10. Form our own league with ND, Stanford, USC, Texas, some others, and blackjack and hookers.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:00 PM ^
Thanks to the OP who put this on the MGoBoard; and super-huge kudos to the Redditor who posted the graph and did the other analytics. Even the comments at Reddit are entertaining!
For me, bitching about Big Ten officiating is 79.3845% more fun when we have the data to back it up.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^
This is why I did the analysis last December. Every game I find myself bitching about the refs. Am I a homer or is it legit? This was an attempt to answer that question to myself.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
Taco Charlotte was blatantly held at least 12 times in the 2016 MSU and OSU games.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
Please send this to Warde ASAP.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
Tell him to make our jerseys on the d line super flimsy and made of hypercolor fabric so the holding is more obvious.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^
I wonder if you could run the same exercise with Don Brown's Boston College defenses. They were similar in style and also very highly rated defense, so if there's something about the nature of his defenses that results in few holding calls it should show up there as well.
October 2nd, 2018 at 7:30 PM ^
Let DeLany and his minions come up with arguments AGAINST Michigan. We have no responsibility to help him with that.
We all see the calls every game with our own eyes, and now have the data to prove what we see: What is needed here is a healthy self-interest, like other self-respecting teams have--rather than the maniacal objectivity that has characterized M fans for decades.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^
How does this look for offenses? Holds called against you by sacks ceded.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:20 PM ^
Maybe they're letting them go unflagged to balance the holding non-calls on our DBs? They're pretty damn handsy.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^
So are States' DBs.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
Wasn't it two years ago in the Shoe that OSU came into The Game as the team with the most holding calls against its oline. Then OSU in The Game did not get called for a single holding call. hmmm
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^
Correct, I think all they had was 5yds in penalties.
October 2nd, 2018 at 3:21 PM ^
And even that was an accident as those yards were meant for us. Those refs were still from Ohio and likely dumber than your average hillbilly.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:46 PM ^
I guess I'm still surprised why everyone is surprised by this.
Michigan used to be elite and is still pretentious. For the time being, Michigan are beatable and it always makes one feel bigger to take down the person(s) who was in power...whether you are a player, fan or even referee. We also don't carry enough influence in the conference or nation for people to be worried about what we may think or say about them, so they can continue to 'beat a toothless lion.'
So the way back to the top means we have to beat our opponents and overcome a lot of other factors as well. Unfortunately that may be a hill too steep to climb.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^
Thank God TV Teddy doesn’t do football games.
October 2nd, 2018 at 2:02 PM ^
There is a decided negative slope on the graph below, with a strong correlation. Teams with above average sack rating tend to have less plays per holding call in their favor. Michigan's position on this graph is astounding.
October 2nd, 2018 at 2:08 PM ^
If you listened closely to the broadcast on Saturday, the Fox announcers noted that Michigan is one of the heaviest penalized teams in the country and Northwestern is not. This is, of course, a matter of fact. They even cited the numbers and their average penalty markoffs per game.
In addition, they noted another penalty-related stat that is even more critical and telling about Michigan's defensive numbers this season, and that is the fact that of the 74 points the opposition has registered, 57 have resulted from penalty-aided drives, which is incredibly high. And not only that, I would argue that most of the flags have come in passing situations, on either second or third down.
Michigan is averaging 6 more penalties a game from last year and 30 more in yardage marked off. And in their games this season, they have been officiated by crews from three different conferences. In our last three games, Michigan is averaging 11 flags a game and more than 100 yards marked off.
Now, on Saturday, Northwestern was called for two penalties totaling 25 yards.
If you look at penalty numbers for other power five teams and leading conference contenders, you will notice that they are among the highest penalized across the board, For the record, MSU (100) , OSU (109) and even Alabama ranks fairly high at No. 78.
What that implies is that coaches of opposing teams make a concerted effort to gain an advantage by pointing out the various ways these teams skirt the rules within their play to magnify penalty issues with crews. And this works, as the numbers bear out.
Even Fox announcers acknowledged this on Saturday, when they noted that a defensive holding call on NW's left tackle was apparently the result of Michigan coaches calling attention to linemen holding two Olinemen to prevent them from blocking on the next level on certain run plays, and then finally getting the call.
And, of course, this type of gamesmanship goes on in every game in every sport. But the penalty numbers in Michigan's case reflects either closer scrutiny of their team play as the result of opposition prompting, trending issues with Michigan's play that crews review, and penalties called just by virtue of reputation over time and place.
In other words, Michigan's secondary gets more flags than other teams likely because it plays so much one-on-one coverage and teaches its defenders to get their hands on receivers to disrupt pass routes and plays. This will inevitably lead to more subjective officiating. And this now apparently leads to calls being made when there is no foul at all. And that is totally unacceptable.
Because of all the stats that officials keep track of, one is their style of play and how that impacts their penalty record. Not saying they go into games with this on their mind, just that they know which teams are more physical than others with a bigger reputation for committing more penalties and bitching about them on the sideline. Michigan under Harbaugh has that reputation regardless of whether he has redeemed his sideline behavior over time.
October 2nd, 2018 at 2:10 PM ^
These numbers are pretty startling.
Brian or Seth could add some real weight to this by combining numbers with some thorough video study and putting it on the front page. A little public attention could actually affect things positively.
October 2nd, 2018 at 2:16 PM ^
As I said in my tweet, I’m happy to share the underlying data and perform some additional analysis if they see an avenue to better publicize this.
October 2nd, 2018 at 4:02 PM ^
Doubt either would ever run with the story, but it would really need to get air time on BTN and/or ESPN to create enough buzz where action is taken.
And even then, could you imagine all the noise around about M fans complaining about officiating so much that it becomes a major story?
October 2nd, 2018 at 2:19 PM ^
Brian and Seth could be presented with a video showing Delaney instructing the officials designated to do the Michigan game to make sure they lose and handing them a bag of money at the end and they would still claim incompetence, not malice.
It's almost like if they admit there's more going on here than just a wacky coincidence (that keeps repeating itself game after game after game after game) it will make the game less fun to watch.
October 2nd, 2018 at 2:38 PM ^
Actually - they seem to match my analysis over the last couple years.
1) Holding is rarely called. The team getting the most hold calls per 100 plays (Indiana) receives about 0.92 hold calls against opponents per game. Michigan receives about 0.54 hold calls per game. Less than half a penalty per game difference. The bias from insensitivity to sample size is a definite issue here.
2) Better sack rates appear to correlate with LESS called holds. Clemson was the only team last year with a better adjusted sack rate than Michigan. They got even less holding calls than Michigan (5 in 14 games vs. 8 in 13 games for Michigan)
October 2nd, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^
Yea, I mean why the graph is impressive and dramatic looking what is the real world difference were talking here? 1/2 call a game difference? Could this be explained by our defense playing aggressive and OLs not being able to get a hold on them in the first place? !/2 call a game is not really much of a difference
October 2nd, 2018 at 3:13 PM ^
Although I prefer the explanation that the refs are terrible, there are certainly multiple ways to look at the data. I think the most obvious way (excluding the former) is that holding calls are made when a quarterback should be sacked but is not. Michigan is more efficient in actually getting the sack, so inversely they will not get the call.
On the other hand, outlier analyses are very useful and this definitely warrants more investigation. Moreover, holding calls should occur whether or not a QB is sacked and much of our fanbase is up in arms about our edge defenders getting held when trying to set the edge.
October 2nd, 2018 at 3:58 PM ^
The purpose of the visualization is to show the data, not perform statistical tests. That said, Michigan finishing in the bottom 3 of the Big Ten in this metric in each of the last 6 years is evidence enough to be provocative. The goal is to get the Big Ten thinking about this; not produce “proof” of a conspiracy.
October 2nd, 2018 at 3:14 PM ^
What do all the teams not named Michigan have in common? They play against Michigan. Some less than others, you know like Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Purdue to name a few.
October 2nd, 2018 at 4:03 PM ^
You guys are reading this all wrong. It's just that when teams like Western Michigan and SMU play top-rated defenses, their O-lines play REALLY HARD and are REALLY CAREFUL to play disciplined football. Their running backs also try really hard not to get called for holding while being tackled.
October 2nd, 2018 at 4:30 PM ^
Hi guys,
Devil's advocate here. I am completely baffled by the calls of current refs and I know that refs generally give the benefit to home teams. (At least there was a study on it.) This might explain Michigan's poorish road performances. BUT...
I am wondering if the assumption that better defensive pass rushers are held more is solid.
Is it POSSIBLE that some of this chart can be explained this way:
Michigan gets so many sacks BECAUSE their technique and/schemes don't allow them to be "held" by the offense as much? Maybe it means they have great technique in using their hands to break off blocks. This graph lines up with the Mattison era teaching DL technique. Also, we seem to be able to plug in guys like Uche, Paye, etc. and get great pressure. So, it could be coaching on how to avoid or break off holds? Or, maybe it means that the Dr. Blitz schemes get guys through without as much OL contact? You can get a lot of sacks with little holding if the defense gets where they need to go before the offense can grab them.
Also, PART of it might be explained by the beating Michigan puts on teams. Maybe the refs don't call as many holds later in the game because the defense is already smothering the opposing offense. They SHOULDN'T do that, but it might be more of a "mercy" thing than a bias against UM. (like not calling pass interference when a team up big throws a deep ball.)
Anyways, enough devil's advocate stance.
Beat Maryland!
October 2nd, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^
Sort of? I mean, we have not been beating down other teams when we lose the games in question. If we are ahead 4 TDs I could see a few mercy calls, otherwise no explanation for the power of the officials to influence the outcome. Non calls on Michigan have given so much advantage to other teams, and the call on Higdon at NW was something that after thinking you've seen every possible way we could get screwed, the ref invented another one.
Refs are not there to provide enough "mercy" calls to rob a team of a chance to win a game legitimately. I can't go along with the reasoning that we just have to keep playing past the refs - it's gotten to be an ever moving target that we might be able to hit at NW... not so much at OSU.
October 2nd, 2018 at 5:46 PM ^
I am wondering if the assumption that better defensive pass rushers are held more is solid.
While this is a perfectly valid thing to debate, I'd say that the trend in the plot pretty much proves that it's a solid assumption, wouldn't you? There's a very clear trendline amongst all of the non-Michigan teams - better DL equals more opposing holding calls.
Second point I'm not qualified to debate on whether or not that's true so I won't address it.
Also, PART of it might be explained by the beating Michigan puts on teams. Maybe the refs don't call as many holds later in the game because the defense is already smothering the opposing offense. They SHOULDN'T do that, but it might be more of a "mercy" thing than a bias against UM. (like not calling pass interference when a team up big throws a deep ball.)
Um...the other teams on that list put plenty of beatings on bad teams. The most egregious of which are Penn State and Ohio State. I'm sorry but if this were true then we'd see a trend like that applied to the better teams in the league.
October 3rd, 2018 at 10:53 AM ^
" There's a very clear trendline amongst all of the non-Michigan teams - better DL equals more opposing holding calls. "
I'd have to see a lot more data to confirm it - but based on looking at the data for 2017 previously, it appears there is either no correlation or a negative correlation between better DL and opponent holding calls.
I suspect that if you look at something like adjusted sack rate from Football Outsiders relative to number of holding calls on opponents you will find either no correlation, or a negative correlation.
I know that doesn't make intuitive sense - but it appears to be the reality.
October 2nd, 2018 at 7:30 PM ^
O.k., that is a creative theory but...that fact is that it cannot be true.
We all see multiple times each game when M d-linemen are held, but there is no call.
If M d-linemen had techniques that made it hard to ever hold them, then we would not be seeing them held every Saturday with our own eyes.
October 2nd, 2018 at 5:25 PM ^
This is where Warde Manuel needs to step up and do his damn job. It's no accident that OSU and Wisconsin are the best on that chart.
Gene Smith might be a morally bankrupt piece of human trash, but he would never allow this to happen to his football team. Imagine this: the 2016 OSU-UM game plays out the exact same, but with the roles completely reversed (UM wins due to abysmal officiating). Urban makes the same comments Harbaugh did post-game. Do you think he receives a $10,000 fine? Hell no, and if he did that whole athletic department would make sure that the B1G offices never received a dime of that money. Then they would have forced Jim Delany's resignation.
As for Barry Alvarez...that dude suffers no fools. I'm pretty sure he has the power to have people murdered in the state of Wisconsin if he so chooses. Wisconsin might not cheat, and they win in every sport by embracing the most dull and boring methods imaginable, but they're going to make sure they don't get the short end of the stick, either. Just look at how easy their conference schedule is every year.
Meanwhile, Warde Manuel...I'm honestly not even sure he's a real person. He might just be a character actor with a stock photo that the school sends out to convince people there is an actual athletic director at the school.
October 2nd, 2018 at 9:30 PM ^
Having met him, he's a great guy and you would never say what you just wrote to his face. Not just because he is a big guy who could swat you like a fly, but because he is incredibly reasonable and well spoken.
With that said, I agree with your general point that Warde be more vocal about this with each passing week that the nonsense continues.
October 2nd, 2018 at 9:35 PM ^
This is incredible
October 3rd, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^
If someone had the data from the ACC while Brown was the DC at Boston College it would be interesting if they were in a similar situation.