March 24th, 2020 at 10:03 AM ^
AMEN. YES it's a terrible virus and infecting hundreds of thousands...it's a virus. The target age group appears to be the 60+ where fatal results for those with WEAK immune systems. Terrible for the over 60 with weak immune systems and their friends/family. What has been missed is the sheer concept of STAY HOME...WASH HANDS...avoid others particularly if you are sick. The number of kids sent to school only to spend the rest of their day in the nurses' office or heading home after vomiting during regular cold and flu season is unreal...like taking care of your kid is somehow an inconvenience and school is your out.
Hell even Beaumont hospital had to issue a retraction/force the hand of a fear-mongering doctor who was posting/had it reposted because social media is the tool of hysteria...stating 20 somethings were flooding their ER and fighting for their lives...WTF?? can't even trust doctors at this point...as he stated he was simply trying to help people see how bad this was??? Yes it's bad...IT'S A VIRUS. UNIVERSAL PRECAUTIONS. The countries seeing positive change didn't PANIC...they FORCED social distancing. Americans are too damn full of themselves, their bullshit entitlement rights...and won't follow simple stay at home recommendations, which become orders...which will eventually become a police state issue because too many idiots need that last 400 rolls of God damn toilet paper to battle a RESPIRATORY virus...can't help stupid.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:08 AM ^
Older people are predominantly the ones dying, but hospitalization rates are quite high among all age groups except under 18.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm#F2_down
It's a myth that this is only an "old people disease," and even if that were the case, that's pretty shitty reason to downplay it.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:38 AM ^
“The countries seeing positive change didn't PANIC...they FORCED social distancing.”
March 24th, 2020 at 10:36 AM ^
sane person. we need more of you
March 24th, 2020 at 11:28 AM ^
My thinking is the new normal for a long while (until they have a vaccine and treatment regimen) should be social distancing and deeper cleaning and hand washing and stay fucking home if you’re sick, but get back to work so people don’t end up on the street and at higher risk.
This, after the current measures have slowed the ramp in most parts of the country.
The problem is that takes herd intelligence, and that doesn’t seem to exist.
China and S Korea are the only ones to get over the hump so far, both around 8-10 weeks. But both acted extremely aggressively (China with total isolation, and S Korea with testing on a massive scale). Almost everyone else is still in the upswing, most exponentially.
My guess is it'll taper off in July or Aug, based on our response. There's also hope of breakthroughs in anti-viral treatments and vaccines which can cut it shorter.
China and Korea are over the hump in regards to cases, but things definitely aren't back to normal yet. Schools are still closed. Hopefully soon things will be more normal though. I've mentioned a couple times in these threads I live in Korea. There were definitely a lot more people out this past weekend, especially because we had highs in the upper 60s. Combine that with a little cabin fever. Doesn't look like it's produced a spike in cases yet. I saw it was bumper to bumper coming back to Seoul from the east (where there are bigger mountains and better beaches) Sunday evening. I'm sure traffic wasn't as bad as a normal nice weekend but still.
Yes, definitely. There's going to be a period of time after case rates fall before going back to normal to make sure there aren't new waves of outbreaks. Still, it's very encouraging to start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:57 AM ^
My wife tutors a Chinese girl in English over skype once a week. She lives in Beijing far away from Wuhan and she's been in lock down for 8 weeks. The big benefit of living in an authoritarian state is that they can lock shit down fast. Not sure when things will lift, but I imagine they have a lot of restrictions in place for awhile. Feels like the minimum amount of time is 6-12 weeks after a complete lock down.
I'm worried about the US because, as noted in a higher thread, the boomers and elderly aren't taking this as seriously as they should and the federal government has decided to punt this to a states right type of deal. Backwater states like Idaho and *cough* Florida are going to extend the need for a lock down. When all of the spring breakers and snowbirds come back infected, we in for a shit storm. Unless we lock it down, we'll be dealing with this until fall.
In a couple months.
I also would not be surprised if this isn't the last quarantine we have in our lives. This virus is bad, but as pandemics go it's rather mild.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:54 AM ^
The first wave of the Spanish flu wasn't that bad, either. It was the second wave that came back and killed millions of people.
Granted, we are lightyears ahead of where we were 100 years ago, from a medical standpoint. But we may only be seeing the beginning of what this pandemic does to humanity. I hope that's not the case, but there is always the possibility that this virus mutates, gets stronger, breaks off into several different strains.
COVID-19 may just be a blip on the radar of humanity's history. But there's also the possibility that this becomes far more than that.
Depends entirely on how far our medical team comes with treating it. If it gets to the point where we
A) Slow the spread
and
B) Have the medial supplies and the discovery of an effective way to treat it for all age groups
Most "experts" are estimating that will come some time in the summer. Life as normal? Could take us some time into next year or late this year whenever the vaccine comes out. More than likely a year.
Yeah the economy will never get back to normal until hospitals have supplies, equipment, and room to treat this. Nor until we get millions of tests to get an accurate assessment of the pandemic.
It'd also be helpful, after any initial wave, to get tested so see if you've had it and recovered and are immune, both for businesses and slowing additional spread.
This virus is going to be passed around in a larger than comfortable capacity for the next 12-18 months, by the projections I read. It all depends on if/when a vaccine is developed, and it also depends on whether or not people become immune once infected and recovered. Also, the virus could evolve and/or break off into different strains.
I don't think things will be completely back to "normal" for a long, long time. I do think that the current levels of lockdown will be eased in a matter of a couple of months. Hopefully. But be prepared for this to last way longer than you like.
There will be a new normal. Eventually.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:32 AM ^
This. It's hard to formulate what the new normal will be, but this complete reset in life is showing us what is and isn't needed in our lives (from personal, family, business, and policy standpoints). Things will change permanently.
We can project (like the lower thread does with businesses), but our old normal is going to be changed.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:59 AM ^
I wonder how different the "new normal" will be from the "old normal". I think that human behavior will change considerably as a result of the pandemic and the effects will last much longer once things return to "normal". A couple of things that come to mind for me are people's comfort level with things like air travel (international and even domestic) and attending mass gatherings (sporting events, concerts, etc.)
I’m going out on a limb and saying sooner than later. Mid April maybe. Depends what you mean by normal. People are realizing there needs to be a pivot point soon for the economy not to tank. Once the medical people figure out how to manage the severe cases that cause the death toll, everyone else can benefit from herd immunity without fear of dying. I expect schools to stay closed, and no large gatherings for sports or concerts until maybe June, but I think we will be free to shop and eat out and travel by the end of April. I could be wrong, but I’m optimistic that our country is capable.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:23 AM ^
Agreed - mid to late April. Trump said as much yesterday. Weeks - not months. Doesn’t mean individual states won’t continue to turtle. And hot spots will be managed differently.
March 24th, 2020 at 12:41 PM ^
Funny that these responses are being downvoted. People have to get back to work soon!! I would imagine the down voters are either college kids at home with mom & dad or retirees that can afford to sit home for months! The rest of us have to provide for our family and we have to get back to work!!
March 24th, 2020 at 12:53 PM ^
Yeah, I don't know why the posts would be getting downvoted either (though saying "states are turtling" isn't exactly good form).
It makes MANY folks uncomfortable to talk about "saving lives" vs. "protecting the economy." I'm not thrilled by it at all. But mature folks know that's a discussion that really cannot be avoided.
Probably because Trump is exactly who you should NOT be listening to in all of this.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
Someone had posted this guy's original article a couple weeks ago. This is the guy that convinced me we had a major problem. He put out an update late last week. I think he does a great job using actual data to lay out when we can begin getting back to normal.
It's a long article, but the short version is if we all buckle down and testing becomes widely available then there is a chance that in three weeks we can begin the process.
The problem is we are still not all buckling down and testing is still sporadic. And then the President is coming out and saying that the cure is worse than the virus. This isn't going to help get people to suck it up for three weeks. I'm holding out hope for here in Michigan at least that come April 13th businesses will be able to begin opening up again if we all do our part now. There will still be plenty of restrictions at that point, but the process can hopefully get started.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:27 AM ^
Trump never said the cure was worse than the virus. I watched the press conference. He said we can’t let the cure become worse than the virus. Why do people need to twist his words?
He doesn’t need any help looking silly, and yet people put words in his mouth at every opportunity.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:58 AM ^
He tweeted it out in all caps
March 24th, 2020 at 11:14 AM ^
Mic drop
March 24th, 2020 at 11:04 AM ^
Sorry, he said “WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF.”
I know that's way different. Sorry I didn't say it word for word.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
Actually, I felt the 'problem' he was referring to was the economy, not Covid-19. He's more worried about the economy than loss of life. At first blush that comes across as stupid, but it makes sense in a Stalanistic sort of way. *shrugs shoulders*
Probably when Michigan Football gets back to "normal"...beating OSU every other year.
When you stop touching yourself at night.
But seriously, who the hell knows? I think you'll slowly start seeing things open back up in the May-June timeframe, but that will be out of pure necessity. The powers-that-be will have to make the choice of whether or not risking people getting sick and dying is worse than letting the economy sit at a complete standstill and drive even more people out of work. When you do that, unemployment costs go up, people run out of money, and your crime rate could skyrocket (no money, no job, no way to pay for food, rent and medicine, no choice but to rob or steal in order to survive).
I do not envy anyone in government who has to make these calls. They are faced with impossible decisions to make in the coming weeks. I'm disregarding whether or not more could've (should've?) been done weeks ago to prevent us from getting to this point. That's in the past and nothing is going to change those decisions now. But if you open things back up, you run the risk of more outbreaks and more people getting sick. If you don't, you further tank the economy and millions of American's livelihoods. No matter what you do, there are severe negative consequences.
As far as when does everything go back to normal where COVID-19 is not the main point of every conversation you have? Could be a year or more. Until vaccines are ready, you'll be hearing about this every day. At this point, I would prepare yourself for the very real possibility that sports are a non-existent part of our lives for the next year. College football and the NFL are in serious danger of being shortened or cancelled, the Olympics just got postponed, and if this isn't looking better by the Fall, or if the virus comes back in a second wave, then college basketball, NBA, and the NHL could all be shortened or cancelled, too. The next sport that I have any kind of reasonable confidence in saying its going to start on time is the MLB season next year. By that time, vaccines could be readily available.
The decision is incredibly easy and just about every major and even minor country has already done it. Rent freeze, UBI, unemployment insurance, paid sick leave etc. Fact is, the government would rather let millions die than see the Dow lose a few points.
Never.
I'm pretty sure I saw an economic expert (he had to be an expert, he had charts) say they had pinned down the window of a return to normalcy sometime between Tuesday, April 14th and when Jesus returns.
Somewhere in there for sure he said.
"when Jesus returns"
There's currently a plague of locusts in Africa. It might be sooner than you think.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:16 AM ^
Jesus comes back
*sees Jerry Falwell, Jr. and Joel Ornstien
*Jesus slips out back door
March 24th, 2020 at 11:18 AM ^
Israel's Health Minister predicted this Passover for the coming messiah. Not sure if he has inside information or if that is just an annual prediction.
Everything will not go back to completely normal until there is a vaccine for this. We will not have a vaccine for many months or possibly a year+. I don't see how we have sports/football this fall with coronavirus outbreaks still out there?
Not even looking at packing the Big House with 110,000 every other Saturday, look at what would be the reality of football season for the players: 100+ guys spitting, coughing, bleeding all over the place and on each other on a daily basis in practice. One guy gets sick, doesn't show symptoms for an entire week, then the whole team has it, travels to play another team and gets that entire team sick. And so on and so on.
Anyone that gets sick has to go into quarantine for 2 weeks at least. So that potentially means teams just not being able to field a whole squad and having to forfeit multiple games. How the hell do you have a football season with that going on?
6.8.0March 24th, 2020 at 10:02 AM ^
Probably never be the same. New world. At some point, the world needs to restart even with some risk. Assume many current precautions with be in place.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:03 AM ^
June 2021 is a good guess for a true return to what we collectively think of as "normal."
Anybody who counts on June 2020 being "normal" is seriously delusional.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:53 AM ^
Sadly, this is the correct answer.
A lot of people are underestimating this...
March 24th, 2020 at 10:16 AM ^
Because of the patchwork state-by-state approach to social distancing, stay at home, etc., this will get drawn out longer that it could have if there had been a coordinated national response. So, I would hope things start coming back in May, but its hard not to believe they'll be some steps backwards as we are trying to go forward. Once people start traveling again, things can get dicey.
Normal-normal doesn't happen until we have a vaccine and enough of the population has received it to create herd immunity.
I've wondered if the fact this virus is so contagious and so effective it actually works against itself. It's so good at infecting people, maybe it shortens the infectious period. It burns itself out somewhat quickly compared to other viruses? I don't know, but it's a random thought that crossed my mind.
Yes to this. Some States are being more proactive to slow the spread, but their success is dependent on how other States respond too.
Will Florida be the State that keeps us all from getting back to normal because of their half-measures?
March 24th, 2020 at 10:23 AM ^
Depends on if dark actors will succeed.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:11 AM ^
I think it could work where we could see a couple of stages of progress here:
1) Massively scale up medical supplies (vents, masks, etc...) so no shortages and massively scale up testing so we can get a clearer picture (ASAP - 2-3 weeks?) and hopefully we get closer to peaks here
2) Slowly relax restrictions in places where outbreaks have been milder, with caution, while maintaining heavier restrictions in hard hit areas (maybe 4-6 weeks). Perhaps in places where things are opened up we double down on mobile testing and make sure its stupid easy to get quick test results and keep procedures in place for postiive tests.
3) When things subside, keeping mobile testing sites open and making sure we've got stockpiles on the medical supply side, and relax guidelines further (next several months or longer)
4) The last piece will be the opening back up of international travel as it's likely we'll be looking at multi-week quarantines for anyone trying to go from country to country anywhere for a while. (TBD)
March 24th, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^
My guess ... after this 15 day general quarantine, some more rural / less impacted regions will go back to work. And if they do well then little by little the whole nation will follow. Come June everywhere is back to work. With exceptions. Senior centers and hospitals will remain with lockdown procedures for longer. And some places will be permanently impacted as small businesses are forced to close and new guidelines come down regarding max capacities in buildings.
And the sooner we return the better. Economy downturns have negative effects far beyond dollars. Lifespans measurably decrease. Domestic violence increases. Depression increases. Quality of cars on the road decreases as money to spend on maintenance decreases. We need a light at the end of the tunnel.
March 24th, 2020 at 12:52 PM ^
I don't know whether June is a reasonable timeframe or not, but forcing the issue prematurely because economic downturns decrease lifespans is maybe one of the most oxymoronic things I've ever heard.
I don't think anyone disagrees that we'd like things to be normal as soon as possible, but we have literally no idea how bad this is going to get, so prognosticating seems like it will only cause more unrest.
The president is now openly calling for things to begin returning to business as usual after this 2-3 week period. Tons of people, even in this thread, believe that that is a reasonable timeframe and are now expecting that result. This isn't a football game where you want your quarterback making guarantees in the face of long odds.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^
I'm going to ask a few questions that need to be asked even if I do get down voted, but they have to be asked. So far the only solution is stay at home, no matter what unless you are essential. How long do we do that before it destroys the economy and impoverishes millions for at least a decade or generation? The question is, how do we not impoverish millions to maybe save thousands? Is the cure akin to cutting of your arm to treat a broken wrist?
These are real questions we need to ask and the answer can't just be social distance and shut everything down. We have to have answers to what that leads to and what do from there. If we come through this and the economy is 50% of what it was meaning millions are without income, what do we do?
I'm not starting an argument, I'm truly trying to find an answer to these questions and no one seems to have an answer.
That's because the questions you're asking don't have answers. The closest we get to making attempts at answering them are probably medical triage and insurance actuaries. When leaders say that "one death is too many" and "we'll spare no expense" it's relatively meaningless; it's definitely not true. Just based on a quick google search, in 2008, Time tackled it from one angle here: http://content.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1808049,00.html
Everyone is going to fall at a different place on the spectrum of "how soon is too soon" but for now the answer is "not yet" and I at least don't have enough information to make truly educated guesses on when that time will be.
I do think that these are questions we need to start looking for answers nearly as much as a cure for coronavirus. We have a recent history in this country of half solutions. We tackle only an immediate aspect with no plan for the ramifications of what we do.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:14 AM ^
Well regardless, our "leader" insinuates he is going to open up the country in a couple of weeks (even though he doesn't really have any power to open up anything) so it will be a CHOICE if life goes back to normal for you. I for one, will still be taking major precautions until doctors tell me its safe, not a serial liar.