I don't know if he's motivated by re-election (probably) but the reality is no one in this country can afford to not work for very long. No money = no rent/mortgage = everyone fucked.
Is anyone surprised this dumb motherfucker is a racist asshole? Anyone?
I thought around Mid-May or June. Now that I see how ill prepared this government is to handle anything, I fear this may go to at least next winter.
We'll get the summer back to "normal" since the virus doesn't like the heat.
There is debate about getting people back to work so the cure (isolation) doesn't kill the economy. We'll know more in "15 days"...
My wife got the toilet paper. I got cigars and whiskey!
There's little to no evidence that warming weather will help.
See: Australia
March 24th, 2020 at 10:17 AM ^
There opinions on both sides of the "heat" debate. Here's a summary of one side:
If all goes well, the new virus SARS-CoV-2, may behave like the influenza virus. Then spring, with its rising temperatures, would kill the pathogens - and stop the spread of the COVID-19 disease. The coronavirus season would pass away just like the annual flu wave, which starts to ebb when winter ends.
Spring may be the season of hope, but it's still too early to say accurately whether SARS-CoV-2 behaves as the influenza virus. Virologist Thomas Pietschmann says, experts can't yet predict the trajectory of the virus because "honestly speaking, we do not know the virus yet."
I prefer to be optimistic about our chances with warmer weather and respect your differing view.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:09 AM ^
Ah yes, that’s why there are no cases anywhere in the south.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:41 AM ^
Does the south get the regular flu or is it completely spared as well?
March 24th, 2020 at 11:52 AM ^
The southern hemisphere gets seasonal flu during their winter (i.e., the opposite time of the year). But Australia (and Brazil, and other places in the southern hemisphere) are having a problem with coronavirus now, which is not flu season in these places, and suggests that coronavirus may not mind the warm weather as much as seasonal influenza does.
The southern hemisphere is going into their fall so they aren't quite hot enough yet. Once it gets consistently above 80 degrees (multiple days in a row) we'll know if it's resistant to heat.
Save us global warming!
Anyone know the average temperature of the human body it is trying to live in? Is it closer to summer or winter temps? Also vitamin C lots of vitamin C.
Two things:
The temperature inside your body versus outside has no relevance here. What studies have shown is that the protective envelope that surrounds a virus, which it needs to stay alive outside a host, does better in colder, drier temperatures. This envelope melts away and becomes irrelevant once the virus is in your body.
It isn't just that the virus 'lives' better in the different weather conditions, it is how those weather conditions impact the way the disease spreads. i.e., low humidity levels has been shown to increase the rate of airborne transmission because the particle sizes shrink from evaporation and are thus able to 'float' in the air for much longer periods of time. It is also proposed that environmental UV rays (more predominant in the Summer) may be able to kill ambient virus (in the same way that artificial UV lights are very good at killing them).
"There is debate about getting people back to work so the cure (isolation) doesn't kill the economy."
There's no debate, just the musings in front of a live mic by someone who's defined the success of his presidency by the state of the stock market. If he does send people back to work, it'll be against the advice of every one of his medical advisors.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:29 AM ^
While I appreciate your frustration with our president, here is something from Forbes:
How long the epidemic will last is guesswork, but past diseases seem to follow a pattern of the worst epidemics ending quickly, while milder outbreaks persist and then flare up again. The disease may end with warm weather, but it may also become seasonal, like colds and the flu. In that case, look for more illness next winter.
Working assumptions for this economic forecast are that the disease spreads widely around the world, causing illness and some deaths, then peters out over the summer. This is a highly speculative projection, though. Short economic downturns are likely in each country affected, though on different timelines.
We'll all know more when we have hindsight.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:44 AM ^
Source? This seems like it was written a long time ago, like when it was still contained to Asia.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:51 AM ^
Published March 10 with update on the 20th.
March 24th, 2020 at 12:24 PM ^
Well, Mar 10 was when the virus hit the knee in the exponential curve worldwide (38k cases outside of China vs 300k now) and started having outbreaks in many countries. The US only had 1k cases then vs 44k today. In terms of the timeline of this virus, it was ages ago.
March 24th, 2020 at 12:39 PM ^
What I cannot figure out is how people talk about this in the abstract.
Like, if given the choice:
A) Pile all of my assets up (so, house, car, money, "stuff", etc.) and burn it all to the ground, or
B) Spend two weeks watching a family member get sick and die
Who is choosing B over A?
Most people don't think of it that way....they only see option C:
C) Spend two weeks watching SOMEONE ELSE'S family member get sick and die while thinking it would never happen to you or yours.
I think a lot of people would choose C if it came right down to it.
People who think it only affects old people and don't have anyone in their life they care about who fits that description. People who literally think its all a hoax and won't affect anyone. People who just do not give a shit about anything other than the economy.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:05 AM ^
Yes part of the government that has other priorities than the virus.
The larger real fact is that the national medical system is not scaled for this.
In many ways it is NOT a system but a group of systems, struggling to coordinate now.
What do you mean by "life as normal"? I think there are going to be certain restrictions for a long time. Months, if not a year or more.
When will businesses and such re-open? My guess is sometime in May.
Life as normal I.e no panic buying, sports back on TV, not having to wear gloves and a mask to work.
Like what kind of restrictions?
Once most people get it / recover and the antibodies are built up -- pretty much just have to wait and hope that, when it does strike, it doesn't hit that bad.
I think, long-term, you're going to see a lot more people having to wear masks and gloves, wash their hands more often in the workplace, etc. Inspections at airports, police officers, hospitals, etc. are going to have long-term policy changes (IMO) regarding how close they get to people/patients and what protective equipment they use.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:47 AM ^
This is the new normal. I suggest watching all the Mad Max movies repeatedly to prepare for the Thunderdome.
Sometime in the summer, probably? But later wouldn’t surprise me either, especially if short cuts are taken in the steps that are currently being implemented in attempts to flatten the curve.
What does normal look like in the other side of this though? Those already laid-off weeks in, what are they left with? What will the long lasting effects of this be on people?
March 24th, 2020 at 11:46 AM ^
My personal belief is the system snaps back better than many people think because it's affecting everyone at the same time - restaurants that closed will reopen the minute they can and rehire everyone they can to get back to business. Landlords aren't kicking anyone out because, that would be shitty #1, and #2, who is there to take the current tenants place? So, it will be a major pause on everything and then will ramp up quickly once the restrictions are lifted.
Best guess.
Assuming people start doing what they are supposed to and we don't see a re-uptick of cases in China and Japan, who have rolled back some measures, we will start seeing some measures rolled back in June. It won't be anywhere what we are used to as normal, but it will be positives.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:46 AM ^
I found this article useful. We actually have other models of how a few weeks of social distancing can work if they are fully implemented. But we also need to scale up testing, contact tracing etc. in the interim. If we do all this in a slap dash manner, looking at our current President, then it seems like this will be quite bad.
April 11. Not normal, but fairly normal. Things will open back up, but many will still work from home and keep social contact down.
There will be no normalcy until we beat OSU...
(am I doing this right?)
We shouldn't be talking about beating COVID until we beat OSU.
That would be Abby Normal.
Hopefully by mid April there will be semi normalcy with stuff opening up again. The problem is, it could come back in the fall or winter.
Zero chance. (The mid-April statement).
There will be a lot of snark here, and probably some doomsday predictions from people who aren't happy with their lives and secretly covet the idea of society breaking down (spoiler alert: they will not like it if society actually breaks down).
But I think what our leaders could be doing a better job of is reminding people that this is temporary. They're probably reticent to say that because they can't put a timeframe on it, but the social distancing and stay home measures will be lifted at some point. I know people understand that, but if it was talked about more explicitly, I think fewer people would be out on the beaches or parks in large groups.
Things will be better by end of April, and will get better from there.
Better than now by the end of April? I really doubt that. Overloaded hospitals are just starting. Things are definitely not better in Italy now than they were a month ago. It's a pretty long sickness for those who get it. By the end of April the best case scenario is the peak is over.
It also seems like it might hit in waves in America. Still hard to say. NYC now. Maybe Arizona (randomly chosen) won't get overloaded for a couple more weeks. Depends on what those states are doing as well, which has been all over the map. Still need testing and tracing.
March 24th, 2020 at 11:09 AM ^
True, I should clarify. By better I mean I think we'll see flattening of the curve in the next couple of weeks and a public view by the end of April that this virus is containable. I don't think all measures will be lifted. I do think some factories will be returning to work, and there will be a much more positive feeling in the air. People will stop hoarding toilet paper (once they've reached an appropriate stock level that we're all going to hold onto for the rest of our lives now).
I do think the country took early action on social distancing (I'm sure a lot of political partisans will spew bitterness and anger at that). I think it will be effective and we'll see positive results in 10-14 days.
March 24th, 2020 at 12:05 PM ^
By end of April we should have a much better idea of who has been infected - simply from the passage of time and then also more testing.
I have been blown away by the sheer number of people that fear monger just to make others as scared as they are. Disappointing seeing as how while this virus absolutely sucks, the numbers death wise are proving to be what we thought they'd be. 1-4% and mostly people that are over 60 with pre existing conditions. But I can't go five minutes without seeing an article about how the 20-30 age group with no conditions is dying rapidly and the world is ending. Clicks still matter during a pandemic I guess. Same thing in 2009.
I guess I'll stand up for the over-60 crowd and say that I don't want 15% or more of them to die in the next two or three months.
I'm weird like that.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:36 AM ^
Cmon Magnus. Where do you get that number? According to Wiki, there’s 50 million people over (don’t have the # over 60 handy). So 15% would be 7,500,000.
Seriously, why so people post such insane BS?
Some people seem disappointed this isn’t proving to be the apocalypse it initially threatened to be.
March 24th, 2020 at 12:23 PM ^
As already pointed out, Italy's fatality rate is significantly higher (granted about 10%, not 15%) precisely because the hospitals are overwhelmed and people who need care cannot get the care they need. Italy reported more deaths yesterday than any day to date (800+), and that despite very aggressive measures put into place some time ago to minimize social contact. A simple search shows the exponential growth in cases and deaths there.
Now, extrapolate those figures over a larger population without the same aggressive measures. That is the risk. It is not hard to understand. It is not the apocalypse, but it is a severe threat is not taken very seriously.
Italy is close to 10% because they're overwhelmed, China peaked at something like 7% for the same reason. That's the scenario we're trying to avoid, it's not fear mongering.
Also, only focusing on mortality rate misses the big picture. Close to 20% of people end up hospitalized, and that's regardless of age.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:50 AM ^
Focusing on COVID mortality also really misses the big picture. More problematic than the people who die of COVID, will be that some will die just because they can't get a hospital bed. If we overwhelm our hospital capacity (which seems nearly certain based on projections, even taking extreme measures), then you will completely run out of ICU beds. At that point, anyone else who needed those beds is completely SOL and all care is first-come-first-served. So you will have a large number of completely preventable deaths for other things like car crash, OD, etc.
I have a slightly different observation: I've been dazzled by the number of complete fucking idiots in our population. Shallow people that don't understand science, y'know? It's always worse than you think.
March 24th, 2020 at 10:01 AM ^
Not sure why you're getting down-voted - you're not wrong.