Predictions for Mich/IU bball

Submitted by goblue85 on

We have ourselves a huge game tonight on ESPN primetime 9pm at Indiana.  I started the thread early as I am heading to work as we speak.  I really think the pressure will be on Indiana tonight being home and having to win more.  I think Michigan will use the Ohio game as hopefully a measuring tool to help benefit them in this game.  Big games bring out the best of Burke and THJ.  I have been waiting for this moment all week.  I think Michigan steals one and gets a huge win tonight. 

 

Michigan 83

Indiana 79

 

DirkMcGurk

February 2nd, 2013 at 8:28 AM ^

The deciding factor will be if the refs allow excessive hand checking on Burke. OSU one because Craft was allowed to grab and bump Burke when Burke would attempt to drive.

aiglick

February 2nd, 2013 at 9:31 AM ^

I think it is going to happen at some point but I'm hoping it comes at a later point in the season in a game even bigger than this one.

We are definitely due for that considering how many close games where either our shot didn't go in or the other team's did in reecnt years.

mGrowOld

February 2nd, 2013 at 8:49 AM ^

Indiana 86 - 81.  Michigan, the team with the fewest fouls called on it in the country this year inexpicably tuirns the game into "hack-a-Zeller on defense.  On offense Michigan, apparently not able to handle the pressure of the big game (I mean what other explanation could there be) commits several offensive fouls leading to Trey Burke sitting for long stretches in the game.

Afterwards Creen will credit the tough play of his team and their rising to the occasion while coach B points out that it was tough getting his normal rotations set with the early foul trouble Michigan got in. Nobody but Michigan fans will mention that the team committing the fewest fouls in the country got hit with over 20 in this game.

M-Dog

February 2nd, 2013 at 12:48 PM ^

This^^^.  It will be Michigan 81 - Indiana 76 + Refs 10.  Michigan wins the game but Indiana wins the score.

I love what Jalen said about it during ESPN Game Day.  When Reece pointed out the Jalen got into foul trouble at Indiana the last time Micihgan was #1, Jalen said "I had three fouls on me before they were done parking the bus."  

That's the closest I've seen from somebody in the media actually talking about the Assembly Hall homer-calls elephant in the room.

Leonhall

February 2nd, 2013 at 9:01 AM ^

Gets calls, tough to win on road, especially if Morgan is not 100%. I don't think people realize how hard it is to win on a quality opponents home floor.

IU-74
UM-68

LSAClassOf2000

February 2nd, 2013 at 9:03 AM ^

First, some summary comparison stuff for the board:

Offensive Stat Comparison
 
Michigan Indiana
Points/Game 76.9   84.0
Avg Score Margin +18.5   +23.5
Assists/Game 15.3   16.0
Total Rebounds/Gm 37.0   40.8
Effective FG % 57.7%   56.8%
Off Rebound % 32.3%   39.9%
FTA/FGA 0.295   0.491
Turnover % 12.8%   16.1%
Defensive Stat Comparison
 
Michigan Indiana
Opp Points/Game 58.4   60.4
Opp Effective FG % 46.2%   42.8%
Off Rebounds/Gm 9.1   11.6
Def Rebounds/Gm 24.8   26.2
Blocks/Game 2.9   3.5
Steals/Game 5.6   8.0
Personal Fouls/Gm 11.8   16.8

The numbers seem to bear out what this site and others have discussed for the last several days - keep the Hoosiers off the free throw line, mitigate offensive rebounds and find some way to dictate the flow of the game, and a win at Assembly Hall is definitely possible. How possible? Eh, Massey would say 50-50, which sounds about right for this game - whoever wins will likely not do so by more than a couple possessions. There is no game where we do not have a serviceable shot of winning, and if we can keep Indiana a little off-balance, I could see a grinding 76-73-ish victory for Michigan. 

Indiana Blue

February 2nd, 2013 at 12:03 PM ^

here's link for conference only games 

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2012-2013/confonly.html

This shows just how even these two teams are ... with Burke being the MAJOR factor in this game for Michigan (assists to turnovers) vs. Zeller and Oladipo.  This should be an offensive classic (if the refs stay out of the game).

Final Score:  Michigan 102   IU  99

Go Blue !

docwhoblocked

February 2nd, 2013 at 5:44 PM ^

 

Per the B1G statistics web site, Indiana averages 27.4 foul shots per game in the B1G so far this year.  The entire of the league averages 18.4 per game across all league games.  The standard deviation of the league is 3.8 foul shots per game around that mean.   This means that Indiana is shooting foul shots at a rate greater than two standard deviations above the mean.  This would happen randomly about one in a hundred times by chance (2.37 sd above the mean).   The next highest teams Iowa and the Gophers and they are about 1 sd above the mean.  Even Wisconsin at the low end is still well under 2 sd from the mean.  Here is the....

chart

 

tot ft

av ft/gm

Indiana

219

27.35

Illinois

132

16.2

Iowa

184

23

Michigan

145

18.125

Michigan State

177

19.67

Minnesota

171

21.375

Nebraska

124

13.777

Northwestern

179

19.888

Ohio State

119

14.875

P enn State

149

16.555

Purdue

136

17

Wisconsin

104

13

B1G av/g

 

18.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

sd=3.8 free throws/game

Get ready to be (re)f'd at Indiana tonight.

 

jdon

February 2nd, 2013 at 9:03 AM ^

I was asked by my wife if I would rather go to the superbowl tomorrow or Assembly hall tonight.  (hypothetically of course)

 

I said assembly hall.  Because we are going to win tonight, in OT  81-76

 

UMgradMSUdad

February 2nd, 2013 at 9:09 AM ^

The crowd will be nuts, the refs will be influenced (I know, not much of a prediction there), but Michigan will hang on to win a nail biter. They will use their experience at OSU and Minnesota to their advantage. I think some of the players were a bit too amped up to start the game at OSU, then shifted to that deer-in-the-headlights reaction for several minutes as things spun out of control. I don't see that happening again.

Rather be on BA

February 2nd, 2013 at 10:28 AM ^

IU 74 Michigan 72

Indiana is a great team and will be very tough to beat at home.  I like us at home and a neutral site, but beating them at Assembly will be a tall order.  I think we have a good chance to win but if I am making a prediction I would have to say a close loss.

Don

February 2nd, 2013 at 9:54 AM ^

Assembly Hall opened for the 1971-72 season, which was also Bob Knight's first season in Bloomington. According to the IU media guide, IU's record against ranked teams at Assembly Hall through the 2011-12 season is 104-58.



The lopsided nature of this record is almost entirely a function of Knight's career; since he was fired after the 1999-2000 season, the Hoosiers are 23-28 against ranked teams at Assembly Hall.



The record for ranked UM teams against IU teams (ranked and unranked) at Assembly Hall is 3-12 in favor of the Hoosiers. Of those three UM victories, one is against a ranked IU team, when #2 Michigan beat #15 IU during the 85-86 season.



IU has faced the #1 team in the country at Assembly Hall five times, coming away with a 2-3 record, with the most recent game in December 2011 which saw an unranked IU team beat #1 Kentucky.



Assembly Hall has never witnessed a game involving two teams as highly-ranked as today's tilt between #1 Michigan and #3 Indiana.



The meaning—and any predictive power—of these records is largely in the eye of the beholder. Focusing on the overall record of ranked teams at Assembly Hall ignores the fact that IU's record against ranked teams since Knight's departure is less than .500. Michigan has a miserable 5-32 record down there, but only 15 of those 39 Michigan teams was ranked going into the game in Bloomington.
The 2011-12 Michigan team was the first ranked UM team to play in Assembly Hall since the 1997-98 season.



It's probably a mistake to conclude that IU's record in Assembly Hall is a mirage or a function of playing lots of lousy teams; the Hoosiers are 9-3 in Assembly Hall against perennial power Kentucky. And many have pointed out that home cooking when it comes to refereeing in the Big Ten is as pronounced at Assembly Hall as anywhere in the conference, if not the country. The Hoosier's game against then-#8 Minnesota is instructive; Indiana went to the free throw line 40 times, while the Gophers had all of 15 attempts. For that reason alone Michigan is logically the underdog, but maybe the most relevant and important fact about this game is that Indiana has never faced this Michigan team, which is easily the best we've had since at least the 1992-93 season. If we pull off a victory, it will be a significant milestone in Michigan basketball history and another feather in the cap for John Beilein.

Don

February 2nd, 2013 at 8:20 PM ^

I was surprised too. I had to triple-check the IU media guide to make sure I wasn't missing something. The Hoosiers have faced #1 teams on a number of other occasions in other venues.

*This comment—and all the other ones in this thread— are trolling? LOL. Looks like somebody put their hands into their poopy diaper and is enjoying smearing it on every surface they can reach. Hope that makes you feel good!

A_Train32

February 2nd, 2013 at 10:59 AM ^

Zeller gets into foul trouble which negates biased officials and we win a close one. Oladipo harasses Burke all night but GRIII steps up with a 20 and 10 performance.