Heather Dinich/ESPN: “CFP: Who has the edge in final ranking?”

link: https://archive.ph/u04nV

 

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GRAPEVINE, Texas -- TCU is this year's darling of college football. Even fans of other teams and national media have embraced the gutsy Frogs, their chaotic comebacks, their funky "Hypnotoad" and their relentless quarterback who left the field bruised and bleeding.

How No. 3 TCU lost Saturday in the Big 12 championship game -- by a field goal in overtime to No. 10 Kansas Stateafter being stuffed on fourth down just inches from the goal line -- matters to the College Football Playoff selection committee. While the early inclination is to assume one-loss TCU remains in the top four, the committee will at least discuss No. 6 Alabama, leaving open the possibility -- however slight it might be -- that TCU could be left out because of the very conference championship game it was a catalyst for implementing.

Remember that?

TCU hasn't forgotten. The Frogs dropped from No. 3 to No. 6 in the fifth ranking of the inaugural playoff, and when TCU and Baylor were deemed co-champions, the Big 12 was left out of the CFP entirely. The conference reinstated the game in 2017 in part because of projections and models that said its chances of reaching the CFP would increase if it did.

So here they are again, without a conference title, with one loss and at the mercy of the committee. If CFP committee were to reward Alabama with a semifinal spot instead of TCU, it would be one of its most controversial decisions since ... the last time TCU dropped out. The optics of rewarding teams that didn't play for a conference title while eliminating one that put it all on the line in a close game would lend to criticism of the closed-door process, but it wouldn't be the first time.

In 2016, one-loss Ohio State made the CFP instead of Big Ten champion Penn State, which also owned the head-to-head advantage but had losses to Michigan and Pitt. In 2017, Alabama lost to Auburn in the Iron Bowl but still finished in the top four without winning the SEC West. It's the annual debate of best vs. most deserving that bubbles to the surface of a sport that relies on an ambiguous, subjective system to determine its championship.

The national disagreement is likely to be reflected tonight in the Gaylord Texan meeting room dubbed Selection Central, where the 13 people with the power to decide the playoff will gather to determine their final top 25 of the season. The pairings for the CFP semifinals will be announced live on ESPN at 12:15 p.m. ET on Sunday. The rest of the CFP top 25, including the pairings for all New Year's Six bowls, will follow at 2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

No. 3 TCU is now one of three teams in the top six that didn't win its conference title, including No. 5 Ohio State. There is no expectation Ohio State will lose its edge over Alabama in the discussions, so the Buckeyes should slide into the top four at the expense of USC, which lost to Utah in the Pac-12 championship Friday night.

Why is the committee talking about No. 6 Alabama and not No. 7 Tennessee despite identical 10-2 records and the Vols' head-to-head win?

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"The value of head-to-head is certainly one of the criteria that we look at," committee chair Boo Corrigan said. "We're looking at a full body of work, and when you look at their two losses by Alabama, including one on a last-second field goal to Tennessee, and then you're measuring -- somewhere in there you've got to measure the loss that Tennessee had to South Carolina, and as we went through that, that was part of the determination as to why to have Alabama ahead of Tennessee."

The Tide are still in an extremely precarious position. A two-loss team has never made the CFP, and one that didn't win its division faces a much higher burden of proof.

The committee has had to deal with top-four teams losing in their conference championship game before -- it happened just last year, when Georgia lost to Alabama in the SEC title game -- but the Dawgs were No. 1. Georgia was No. 4 in 2018 and 2019 heading into the SEC championship and dropped to No. 5 after losing to No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 LSU, respectively. In 2015, No. 4 Iowa lost the conference championship game to No. 5 Michigan State and fell one spot to No. 5.

It's possible TCU falls to No. 4, which would pit No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 Ohio State against each other in a semifinal. The committee is instructed not to consider rematches in the semifinal games during its final ranking.

There has never been a playoff with more than one team entering off a loss, but with TCU and Ohio State (and USC) all losing their last games, this could be the year. While TCU made a strong case even in its loss to stay in the top four, here is what the committee will consider as it compares the Frogs with Alabama and makes that final determination:

TCU vs. Alabama

The common opponent: Texas

On Sept. 10, in the second game of the season, Alabama won at Texas 20-19. On Nov. 12, TCU won at Texas 17-10. Alabama's offense found more success (374 yards) against the Longhorns than TCU (283 yards), despite scoring only three more points than the Horned Frogs. The Tide also had a stretch with six straight punts, and there were dropped passes and 11 first-half penalties. The Tide also faced Texas backup quarterback Hudson Card for most of the game after starter Quinn Ewers was injured in the first quarter.

TCU played arguably its best defensive game of the season, holding running back Bijan Robinson to 29 yards. The Frogs allowed just 199 total yards, and limited Ewers to 17-of-39 passing and forced an interception. The Horned Frogs held Texas to a field goal on consecutive drives inside the TCU 10 in the second half.

EDGE: TCU

Résumé

play

1:57

Kansas State wins Big 12 title in wild OT finish

TCU comes back from a 28-17 deficit to tie it in the fourth, but a fourth-down stop and a field goal give Kansas State the overtime win.

Entering Saturday, the Horned Frogs were No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric, but No. 36 in strength of schedule behind Ohio State (35th), Alabama (eighth) and Tennessee (seventh). TCU's nonconference lineup of Tarleton, Colorado and SMU doesn't include a Power 5 opponent with a winning record, while Alabama had the nonconference win at Texas.

TCU is currently 2-1 against CFP top 25 teams, with wins against No. 10 Kansas State and No. 20 Texas, and then the title game loss to K-State. Although TCU lost Saturday, it can still claim a win against the Big 12 champs. TCU has four wins against opponents over .500 (Oklahoma State, K-State, Texas Tech and Texas).

Alabama is 2-2 against CFP top 25 teams. Its best win is against No. 20 Texas, followed by No. 24 Mississippi State. Its losses are to No. 7 Tennessee and No. 14 LSU, which finished as four-loss SEC runner-up to Georgia. Alabama has three wins against Power 5 teams over .500 (Texas, Mississippi State and Ole Miss).

EDGE: TCU

The losses

TCU lost its last game by three points. Alabama lost two games, both on the road, by a combined four points. Both teams lost to ranked opponents. TCU lost to a top-10 conference champion. No. 14 LSU is likely to sink further following its 50-30 loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game.

EDGE: TCU

Final prediction: No. 3 TCU maintains its current position, with Ohio State earning the No. 4 spot.