Coaching Decision in Arizona Game
I was curious what other people thought of a rather interesting coaching decision last night in the Arizona game.
Setup-
Zona is up 3. They have the ball. 4th and 4 from the UTSA 30. 23 seconds left.
Options as I see it
a. kick FG- go up 6 but risk block or fielp position with miss
b. regular punt- risk block but kill time and only gain 10 yds of field position
c. pooch punt- risk block but maybe get some field position
d. go for it conservative- less chance for screw up but probably won't make it
e. go for it aggressive- best chance to end game but open yourself up for disaster.
The time left made it interesting to me. It wasn't a lot of time but just enough if they got the ball at the 30 to get in fg range with 2 or 3 plays. A punt that rolled could kill some time but open up more variables.
In the end Zona went option d. They ran up the middle and didn't get it. I didn't like this strategy as it only killed 2 seconds. UTSA got the ball but ran 2 horrible plays and the game ended, but I wasn't sure what I would do. I liked going for it but I think I would have ran a play to the end zone or a wide run to kill more time. A pooch punt seemed like another attractive option.
Give me your play.
September 5th, 2014 at 10:20 AM ^
A lot of it depends how your team is playing, how the opponent is playing and such. But generally speaking, I go with option E, end the frickin' game now. Play to win, all in.
September 5th, 2014 at 10:33 AM ^
I would've had the kicker make that 20 yarder about 10 minutes earlier
September 5th, 2014 at 10:43 AM ^
September 5th, 2014 at 6:43 PM ^
Not saying I disagree - I probably would go for it. But as a coach, I have to say t's A LOT different when your career and family's well being is on the line. This is a profession where you get fired for losing games and your kids have to move schools.
September 5th, 2014 at 10:21 AM ^
September 5th, 2014 at 11:17 AM ^
get the ball out of the line, eat up some clock...whatever it takes.
September 5th, 2014 at 11:20 AM ^
But you don't want to risk loosing a lot of yards either. I think I would have the QB roll to the wide side of the field. Send someone deep and if there isn't an easy pass for a first down, tell the QB to chuck it through the endzone before taking a sack. Would kill a lot of time if the play for the first isn't there to be made.
Of course, that's given a lot of time to think about the best play call in the situation. I'm not sure running a conservative play up the middle was a bad decision under the circumstances.
September 5th, 2014 at 11:31 AM ^
September 5th, 2014 at 6:23 PM ^
Only one play to run in that situation...
September 5th, 2014 at 10:22 AM ^
How many timeouts did UTSA have? I probably would pooch punt (ideally from a regular formation to avoid a return) and make sure the ball stayed inbounds. This way you burn as much time as possible which should really be the objective with that little time left
September 5th, 2014 at 10:27 AM ^
September 5th, 2014 at 10:34 AM ^
That yardage is meaningless. Statistics don't back up Lloydball puntasaur stuff.
September 5th, 2014 at 12:13 PM ^
Most of those statistics assume something other than an end-of-game situation. Nobody should ever punt on the 30 normally, but this situation is akin to a baseball team up five runs in the ninth and allowing a run to score in exchange for the second out, which they'd never do in the fourth inning. IME a roll-out pooch punt is the play, with a passing option in case the defense foolishly ignores that possibility. Aim the punt for the corner and try and get it out of bounds inside the 10.
September 5th, 2014 at 10:41 AM ^
Ron Zook wants to have your baby.
September 5th, 2014 at 11:02 AM ^
Zook probably would have taken one or two false starts and then booted into the endzone. My scenario ideally takes much more time off the clock - the yardage gained is inconsequential
September 5th, 2014 at 11:54 AM ^
During the RR years we had our QB pooch a couple times. Ideally there is no return man as the safeties have to respect the possibility of an actual play and the roll should allow you to take a decent chunk of time off the clock.
September 5th, 2014 at 12:24 PM ^
Yep, exactly what I was suggesting
September 5th, 2014 at 10:22 AM ^
September 5th, 2014 at 10:22 AM ^
September 5th, 2014 at 10:23 AM ^
If this was ASU and not UA with RR would this be a thread? Asking for a friend
September 5th, 2014 at 11:23 AM ^
I've died on RR hill so the only reason I saw the play is I pull for RR and was watching the game more than I would have if it was ASU.
The post has 0 to do with it though and I purposely said Zona instead of RR to avoid anything coming up about him. I just love analyzing coaching decisions and I thought this one was interesting and based on the variance in responses other people do to.
September 5th, 2014 at 11:57 AM ^
An interesting scenario from the only college football game of the week thus far. It's not that weird that the question was asked. I watched too, and not because of Richrod
September 5th, 2014 at 10:33 AM ^
Option f. Other - We have not worked out a strategy on how to deal with the situation yet.
September 5th, 2014 at 10:25 AM ^
Field goal. Go up by six. KO out of the end zone to have them start at the 25 and need 75 yards to win. If you miss the 47 yarder you are in no different shape than if you fail on a 4th attempt.
If my kicker sucks (which 50% of college kickers can't be trusted to make a 47 yarder) then I'd play action with a single WR 10 out and if he's not immediately open then throw to a releasing TE/RB for 4+ yards and the first down.
I would never punt or pooch in that situation.
September 5th, 2014 at 10:42 AM ^
Ron Zook hates you.
September 5th, 2014 at 11:30 AM ^
I'd never punt from the 30. But from 31-40 I punt each and every time. No matter what.
4th and 1 from the 33, 3:00 left, down 4. I'm punting....
September 5th, 2014 at 11:41 AM ^
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September 5th, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^
September 5th, 2014 at 10:27 AM ^
September 5th, 2014 at 10:29 AM ^
FIRE RICH ROD
September 5th, 2014 at 11:38 AM ^
RABBLE, DA SPRED OFENS WONT WORK IN DA PAK TWELV!!! RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE
September 5th, 2014 at 10:31 AM ^
If I had a QB who could do it, I'd do that QB pooch thing. It's relatively low risk, since the defense isn't rushing the punter, it should burn a lot of clock as the ball bounces around (assuming there's no returner back there), and it could be a meaningful change in field position.
Otherwise, I'd probably go with "e" (aggressive go for it) and just avoid throwing to the sidelines or something that felt like it could produce a pick-six. An interception without much of a return really wouldn't be that bad in that situation -- and might be a lot better than a conservative play that doesn't get the four yards.
September 5th, 2014 at 11:04 AM ^
Agree - without being able to punt with a QB from a regular offensive formation you risk (a) a return, (b) a block, or (c) a fair catch that takes little time off the clock
September 5th, 2014 at 11:54 AM ^
September 5th, 2014 at 10:31 AM ^
Interesting question but I thought you were going to ask about the previous possession which is where I thought Rich made a poor choice (although it worked out for him). 4th & inches from mid-field with 2 minutes left on the clock and UTSA with only one TO left. He punted and gave them the ball on the 20 with a TON of time to either get a FG or a TD for the win. Got the INT a few plays later but still - why give them a chance?
That was the one that was a head-scratcher to me. The one you referenced was with so little time on the clock I dont think there was bad choice to be made.
September 5th, 2014 at 11:05 AM ^
3rd and inches and they run probably one of the worst QB sneaks ever; the QB got flipped over sideways and ended up on his back without lunging forward or anything. At the time I thought they should go on 4th, but it could go either way really. The UA defense held UTSA to a 3-and-out the previous drive, so I imagine RR felt content with playing defense.
I actually turned the game off and went to be bed after the INT and didn't see the choice with 23 seconds to go.
September 5th, 2014 at 11:13 AM ^
I agree with you. I didn't think that was an interesting decision. I thought that was a horrid decision. You have to try and get an inch to probably end it. I've seen a lot of football but this one kind a got me thinking because of the unique amount of time left.
September 5th, 2014 at 10:31 AM ^
was probably right, the play call was pretty iffy.
September 5th, 2014 at 10:32 AM ^
FUMBLEROOSKI!!!
September 5th, 2014 at 10:34 AM ^
Option F: Denard
September 5th, 2014 at 10:37 AM ^
I was okay with the decision to go for it, but I was a,azed at the play call. The clock stops for a change of posession anyway, so if you're going to go for it, you really ought to do a pass play with the option to scramle for it because it offers you a better chance of getting the first down and also burns more time for the play itself in the vent you are not successful.
Given that the call was a run right up the middle needing 4 yards in a system not really designed for conservative runs right up the middle, pretty much every other option that didn't involve going for it was better IMHO.
September 5th, 2014 at 10:37 AM ^
in that situation. There was little time left, no TOs and the QB had not thrown anything longer than a 5 yard out to the sideline all game (throwing up the middle isn't an option). I'm not punting due to risk of bad snap or block. I'm not kicking a FG bc going up 6 isn't worth the risk of block or missing and giving great field position.
So, I'm going for it. I'm not throwing to the sideline due to risk of pick 6. I might be persuaded to run a play action short throw over the middle but only if it's WIDE OPEN, or else have the QB run it. In reality I'd probably have run it like AZ did, but maybe something slower developing like a misdirection play or a QB sweep to eat a few more seconds.
September 5th, 2014 at 10:56 AM ^
Just curious, but did you also agree with the call on the play that mGrowOld referenced above?
September 5th, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^
I think AZ should have gone for it on the 4th and inches and put the game away. They were getting positive yards running all day even as their QB had a pretty terrible game and couldn't hit a receiver. I also hated the 3rd and inches sneak - just run the read option. I just really hate sneaks.
September 5th, 2014 at 10:41 AM ^
I'd pooch punt, if my punter was good at pooching. I have no clue about the UA punter though. I probably wouldn't kick a FG, unless I had an awesome kicker.
I'd probably run their standard read option play and hope for the best.
September 5th, 2014 at 10:41 AM ^
Annexation Of Puerto Rico.. Obvious Choice
September 5th, 2014 at 10:42 AM ^
September 5th, 2014 at 10:45 AM ^
Interestingly, and to my surprise, the NFL Fourth Down Calculator (http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/4thdncalc1.php) indicates that, given the situation, punting gives you a 99% chance of winning, going for it 95%, and a field goal 93%. Obviously that's using average NFL numbers, not college, and you've got to take the specifics of your team into account, but on average it looks like it's pretty much a toss-up, with a slight bias in favor of punting. I would've intuitively thought go for it.
September 5th, 2014 at 10:53 AM ^
With those numbers, that's not even close to a toss up. If you believed those probabilities were accurate for your particular situation, punting is a no-brainer. College is different, though. The field goal kickers are worse, the punters are worse, etc.
I think a FG is a terrible option in this case. That's a long kick for a college kicker, you lose 7 yards of field position if he misses (a big deal in a 3-point game with 30 seconds left), the probably of disaster is relatively high, and the best-case scenario still has you up less than a TD and having to kick off (with kickoffs being other risky play).
Although I don't know much about Arizona's personnel, I'd rank my options with something like (1) QB pooch punt, (2) traditional pooch punt, (3) aggressive go for it, (4) punt out of the end zone, (5) conservative go for it, and then (6) FG attempt.
September 5th, 2014 at 11:05 AM ^
THe one big college difference is clock stoppages on first downs. That makes college comebacks significantly easier when time is running out