BCS simplified...

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November 27th, 2011 at 9:31 PM
#1
Michigan Stadiu...
Joined: 07/28/2010
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BCS simplified...

 

We need TWO out of these FIVE things to happen to make the top 14 (although if Georgia wins, we might not even get the at-large):

 

1) Pokes beat up on Sooners.  By a lot preferably.

2) Les Miles takes care of business and helps out his alma mater.

3) Little Bro hits puberty for a day and wins (or loses by a LOT, like 35 a lot).

4)  Boise has one of the biggest upsets ever and loses to New Mexico.  Ain't gonna happen.

5)  K St loses to ISU...also unlikely, but who knows.

 

At this point, I don't think we can count on losses by LSU, Houston, Okie St, Oregon, or Va Tech to put them below us.

 

[Edit:  added K St...sorry I forgot they were "good"]

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November 27th, 2011 at 9:37 PM | I've seen it posted tons of (Score:2)
VideoTom
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Joined: 06/02/2010
MGoPoints: 1852

I've seen it posted tons of times...but why exactly do the computers love the Big 12? I don't think they are a particularly strong conference.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:41 PM | They were great non-conference (Score:2)
AAB
Joined: 01/14/2009
MGoPoints: 7194

only lost a couple of games total I believe.  

There is no time, sir, at which ties do not matter.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:41 PM | They play nine conference (Score:2)
enlightenedbum
Joined: 06/06/2009
MGoPoints: 1864

They play nine conference games so considerably fewer total creampuffs on their schedules.  And the computers having margin of victory eliminated means that schedule strength is pretty much everything.  The Big 12 also didn pretty well in terms of winning non-conference games this year, if I remember right.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:41 PM | Some of the computers do not (Score:3 Normal)
Sckon
Joined: 01/29/2011
MGoPoints: 296

Some of the computers do not recompute until the end of the season. Hence the reason for Texas A and M being in the top 20 for some computers. There will be a big shift, so expect any questionable teams (South Carolina for instance) to drop significantly once the computers are allowed to recompute some of the inputs.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:53 PM | Where? (Score:5 Normal)
goblue7612
Joined: 03/02/2010
MGoPoints: 1018

Where have you read this?

November 27th, 2011 at 9:37 PM | BCS Simplified Indeed (Score:3 Normal)
LSAClassOf2000
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Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 8704

"Funny isn't it, how naughty dentists always make that one fatal mistake."

Follow the random tweets of a Michigan alum - http://twitter.com/#!/LorneEC3

November 27th, 2011 at 9:37 PM |  What is all this talk that (Score:4 Normal)
Gorgeous Borges
Joined: 10/07/2011
MGoPoints: 680

 What is all this talk that Michigan State won't move behind us if they lose the Big 10 Championship Game?

November 27th, 2011 at 9:41 PM | Absolutely agree. MSU losing (Score:4 Normal)
madtadder
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Joined: 03/24/2009
MGoPoints: 1597

Absolutely agree. MSU losing next weekend will drop them well below us. Even a close loss. There is a pretty big anti-Big Ten bias in the polls that has existed for a while. When we lose, even to good competition, we often drop 8 or 9 spots. When SEC teams lose, they drop about  half that.

November 27th, 2011 at 10:31 PM | There's atty big gap between (Score:1)
DaBigDaddy
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Joined: 08/11/2011
MGoPoints: 581

There's atty big gap between #13MSU and #16Michigan. And given MSU beat UM head to head, if MSU drops Michigan might drop too. That will only hurt our chance of making the top14. Our best bet is MSU beat Wisconsin and they drop behind.

Playing football on Wall Street

November 27th, 2011 at 10:02 PM | yea....the OP kind of (Score:4 Normal)
orobs
Joined: 10/03/2010
MGoPoints: 1729

yea....the OP kind of butchered these

November 27th, 2011 at 10:06 PM | I think it is a mark of the stupidity of the polls, and the BCS (Score:2 Normal)
Section 1
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Joined: 06/29/2009
MGoPoints: 14295

if MSU, by virtue of going to the Big Ten Championship game and losing, drops below a Michigan team that they beat soundly and therefore did not go to the Championship Game.

So having said that, I hope nobody minds if I root for Dantonio, Narduzzi & Co. to lose by 50.

 

 

November 27th, 2011 at 10:40 PM | I don't care who you root (Score:1)
joeyb
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Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 11300

I don't care who you root for, but if MSU loses, then Michigan's SOS takes a hit in the computers. If they win, then it goes up.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:37 PM | Don't forget Iowa State. (Score:2)
KinesiologyNerd
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Joined: 02/10/2009
MGoPoints: 5974

Don't forget Iowa State. Let's hope they can slay the dragon again.

I know from experience dude. If you know what I mean.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:38 PM | I would also include KSU (Score:1)
NYC Blue
Joined: 02/09/2011
MGoPoints: 112

I would also include KSU losing to ISU.  Not likely, but since you included Boise losing to New Mexico, I thought I would include that.

 

November 27th, 2011 at 9:39 PM | Guh. (Score:1)
JR's Flow
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Joined: 11/26/2010
MGoPoints: 529

Sparty ACTUAL B1G Champs..... Excuse me while I puke...Wait, ahh f**k it, no excuse needed.

"This might sound arrogant and if it is, it is. We're Michigan."- Brady Fucking Hoke

November 27th, 2011 at 9:39 PM | What hurt us more (Score:0 Normal)
November 27th, 2011 at 9:42 PM | Not true.  The computer (Score:4 Normal)
turd ferguson
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Joined: 12/09/2009
MGoPoints: 2916

Not true.  The computer rankings don't incorporate margin of victory.  Style points only help with the "human" polls.

November 27th, 2011 at 10:05 PM | True but what I mean by it is (Score:0)
November 27th, 2011 at 10:12 PM | The computers don't factor in (Score:1)
madtadder
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Joined: 03/24/2009
MGoPoints: 1597

The computers don't factor in the human votes. Otherwise the whole thing would be extremely redundant.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:40 PM | Delete. (Score:-1 Flamebait)
November 27th, 2011 at 9:40 PM | A 2 loss Michigan team (Score:5 Normal)
AAB
Joined: 01/14/2009
MGoPoints: 7194

will be ahead of a 3 loss MSU or Wisconsin team, even if that team loses in overtime.  This is how the voters work.  

There is no time, sir, at which ties do not matter.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:41 PM | You don't think a Houston (Score:2)
bdsisme
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Joined: 09/19/2010
MGoPoints: 5474

You don't think a Houston loss will drop them below us?

"It would be a travesty, it would be ridiculous to all of a sudden come back and get the feeling back, get the health back, feel good again and then all of a sudden go throw some other colors on my shirt and go coach."

November 27th, 2011 at 9:43 PM | A Houston loss would be pure (Score:1)
Sckon
Joined: 01/29/2011
MGoPoints: 296

A Houston loss would be pure joy.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:43 PM | Loser of BTCG won't stay ahead of us! (Score:4 Normal)
GRMichFan
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Joined: 08/28/2010
MGoPoints: 118

I see no way that the loser btwn MSU and Wisc stays above us.  Won't happen.  This time next week we will be 14th.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:45 PM | It would be interesting to (Score:1)
Sckon
Joined: 01/29/2011
MGoPoints: 296

It would be interesting to see where State would land if they lost (not taking into account the score). This is why the BCS is screwed up because it actually can be disadvantageous to be in the Championship game.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:43 PM | This isn't correct (or even (Score:2)
turd ferguson
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Joined: 12/09/2009
MGoPoints: 2916

This isn't correct (or even all that close to correct).  It's much more complicated and less certain than this.

One point on which we agree, though:  Michigan needs an LSU win next week.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:44 PM | Houston (Score:1)
bmacjr11
Joined: 08/23/2009
MGoPoints: 12

Agree with the OP to a point... However, I don't see a one-loss Houston being ranked ahead of Michigan.. That would mean they lose to So.Miss(which is possible).. That would be detrimental to them in every poll and ultimately the computers.. I am also not so sure a second loss in a row by okie st. would not drop them a ton.. But that is definitely a lot less probable. 100% agreed on whatever happens in these games, I hope none of them are close!!

Go Blue in AZ

November 27th, 2011 at 9:45 PM | I'm glad people are now (Score:-1 Overrated)
November 27th, 2011 at 10:00 PM | Sarcasm? (Score:1)
U of M in TX
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Joined: 07/01/2008
MGoPoints: 428

I can't tell if your post is sarcastic or not.........I'm just going to assume that it is.

November 27th, 2011 at 10:12 PM | posted from iPhone (Score:2)
Doctor Wolverine
Joined: 08/13/2009
MGoPoints: 411

BIG DIFFERENCE!! In this "tournament" you speak of we don't have a shot at really winning anything more meaningful than playing in the sugar bowl BEFORE the BCS (ie just playing for respect and prestige). If there is a true 8 team playoff, all 8 top teams have a shot at a NC (obviously either way we are not and would not be playing for a NC, nor do we deserve to with the 2 losses we have). The other teams would still play in the other bowls they would normally play in anyway.

Doctor Wolverine

November 27th, 2011 at 9:45 PM | Can still root for Wisco... (Score:1)
Jskohl88
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Joined: 03/25/2011
MGoPoints: 254

I really think whichever team loses the B1G Championship will fall below us, regardless of who it is and the margin.

Just looking at the current standings, a 9-3 Nebraska, who defeated the currently 10-2 Sparty, is below them (and many other teams, but that's besides the point). My point here is that a team with more losses will fall below the team with less, regardless of the head-to-head result. So we don't necessarily HAVE to root for Sparty. I certainly won't. Root for LSU, and that should be enough. 

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders. The most famous is never get into a land war with Asia. But only slightly less well known is this: never go in against a Sicilian, when death is on the line!

November 27th, 2011 at 9:45 PM | Could Baylor jump Michigan (Score:5 Normal)
orobs
Joined: 10/03/2010
MGoPoints: 1729

Could Baylor jump Michigan with a win over texas given the computer circlejerk for the b12?

November 27th, 2011 at 9:48 PM | No, most of the computers (Score:1)
Sckon
Joined: 01/29/2011
MGoPoints: 296

No, most of the computers have not readjusted the conferences. When they do, the Big 12 will dip a bit.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:52 PM | What do you mean? I wasn't (Score:3 Normal)
orobs
Joined: 10/03/2010
MGoPoints: 1729

What do you mean? I wasn't aware on any conference readjustment after the season...

November 27th, 2011 at 9:52 PM | Short answer is yes. (Score:1)
MGoSoftball
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Joined: 10/18/2010
MGoPoints: 3578

People need to understand this.  Baylor could jump over us if they win.  This would put everything in a tail spin.

From the Red Cedar Message Board:  "God hates us."  Yes He does Lil Bro, yes he does.  Everyone hates you.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:45 PM | LSU Win (Score:1)
GRMichFan
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MGoPoints: 118

An LSU win is the only must have, or else SEC gets three teams in BCS.  The rest will take care of itself.

November 27th, 2011 at 10:23 PM | Not possible (Score:1)
Bosch
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MGoPoints: 4275

unless you think that LSU only drops to #2 with a loss to Georgia.  No conference can get three teams in, unless the very unlikely scenerio that #1 and #2 didn't win the conference championship.

All right Lemmings. Bring the heat.

November 28th, 2011 at 12:56 AM | As much as I hate to say it, (Score:1)
duffman is thru...
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Joined: 05/20/2010
MGoPoints: 998

As much as I hate to say it, it is not that unlikely of a scenario (other than the Georgia winning part).

"We alway's did feel the same, we just saw it from a different point of view"

November 27th, 2011 at 9:45 PM | Worried about Baylor jumping us (Score:1)
Bluestreak
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MGoPoints: 1737

If Baylor beat Texas by a lot, they could jump us in the rankings. I hope this doesn't happen.

GMAT score =800 = Defensive POTY

November 27th, 2011 at 9:48 PM | RG3 was injured... (Score:1)
SpreadGuru
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Joined: 10/17/2008
MGoPoints: 1106

At the end of the first half Saturday. He didn't return. If he doesn't play, Baylor is in big trouble.

"Forty-two Big Ten Championships!"

November 27th, 2011 at 9:50 PM | RG3 (Score:2)
GRMichFan
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Joined: 08/28/2010
MGoPoints: 118

ESPN says probable

November 27th, 2011 at 9:45 PM | So, extra simplified: We (Score:3 Normal)
go16blue
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Joined: 04/28/2010
MGoPoints: 3422

So, extra simplified:

We these two things to happen:
1. LSU beats Georgia
2A. Wisc beats MSU by a ton
2B. MSU beats Wisc
2C. OSU beats Oklahoma

COYS and lets go Detroit FC!

November 27th, 2011 at 9:48 PM | Disagree (Score:4 Normal)
GRMichFan
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Joined: 08/28/2010
MGoPoints: 118

I think all we need is a Georgia loss

 

November 27th, 2011 at 9:54 PM | That will not be enough (Score:2 Normal)
MGoSoftball
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Joined: 10/18/2010
MGoPoints: 3578

What if Baylor beats Texas?

From the Red Cedar Message Board:  "God hates us."  Yes He does Lil Bro, yes he does.  Everyone hates you.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:47 PM | Actually (Score:1)
Michigan4Life
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 5662

Michigan would need 3 of the 5 above happen next week in order to be ranked #14 provided Baylor beating Texas.  I think Baylor will jump Michigan with a win over Texas with ease based on the computer poll.

November 27th, 2011 at 9:48 PM | I don't think Houston will drop below us even with a loss... (Score:0 Overrated)
November 27th, 2011 at 10:21 PM | What if Clemson beats VT? I (Score:2)
jrt336
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Joined: 01/16/2009
MGoPoints: 4490

What if Clemson beats VT? I almost think they'd have a better chance of jumping us after that than Baylor would if they beat UT.

November 27th, 2011 at 11:03 PM | Was just going to post this... (Score:2)
ldoublee
Joined: 06/22/2009
MGoPoints: 2888

So all we need is Sparty to drop to 15 after losing to Wisconsin.

November 27th, 2011 at 11:11 PM | Not really (Score:2)
uminks
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Joined: 11/10/2009
MGoPoints: 1441

Even if for some reason sparty was at number 14. No BCS bowl will be inviting a three loss sparty and B1G championship loser to their bowl game. It will be WI (if they win)getting the automatic bid and Michigan getting the invite from the B1G.

expect the best

November 27th, 2011 at 11:05 PM | I over looked this rule (Score:3 Normal)
uminks
uminks's picture
Joined: 11/10/2009
MGoPoints: 1441

Well, looks like we are in the Sugar Bowl since I think they want us!  No need to get heartburn over next weeks games.

 

expect the best

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