I tend to agree, however the ND and Northwestern games need to be mistake free to win on the road. We could just as easily lose those two.
I tend to agree, however the ND and Northwestern games need to be mistake free to win on the road. We could just as easily lose those two.
We SHOULD be 10-2.
with the word "should" (in this context, NOT in some philosophic manner) is that it isn't grounded in reality. Plenty of work left to do to get to that record, and I hope the team realizes this and starts taking the necessary steps. I know that many folks will place a lot of responsibility on the coaching staff's shoulders, but the senior leadership and the personal accountability for each player's part on this team should be addressed...now.
Problems with senior leadership (or lack thereof) will be a difficult issue to overcome when there are only a handful of seniors on the entire roster.
and I couldn't agree more. However, I hope that players that exhibit the work ethic that we expect to see from team leaders, no matter what year they are, will step up and lead regardless.
True. If you look on the offensive side, Gardner I think will be the lone senior at least with any significant playing time/impact. On the defensive side it's a little better with guys like Ryan, Morgan, Clark and Beyer. I think that guys like this will have a huge impact on the outcome of this team. I think really what it comes down to is that younger underclassmen are going to have to step up and take control, either by their play on the field or by being good locker room guys.
Leadership coming from "senior" players - more often than not from members of the senior class.... Last year's team is different than this years in many, many, ways. Remember too that coach has chosen "captains" of each class that meet regularly -
Effective leadership isn't derived from the quantity of seniors.
Looking at the schedule the only teams you could say 100% for sure are better than us are OSU and MSU.
My personal prediction is 8-4. Just don't have faith in the coaching staff. Mattison included.
Why is Jobu still on this site? He is clearly a troll, as every single comment he has ever made is trolling (seriously, look at his post history) and he has a ton of negative points. Isn't there a way to ban trolling users and at least force him to make a new username to troll with?
You could ignore him. I've done that for months
Well, I don't agree with him in not trusting the coaches, especially Mattison, but what he said is far from crazy unfortunately.
Did Brian ever say anything about bringing back negged comments that don't get shown unless you specifically click on them?
Not every single. Just vast majority. Although I sometimes suspect it is at least a couple of people using that handle.
is pretty unobjectionable. One is allowed to feel pretty skittish about Michigan's prospects at this stage, with this crew at the helm. Overjoyed if Angelique is right, but. . .
to anyone with -165558230 points!
Treat each comment seperately and quit being a twat.
Both of the teams you listed are not even close to 100% for sure better than us.
but I think our D is going to be good to pretty damn good.... if we stay healthy. DLine stays healthy and does their thing..finally...we could see something pretty nasty on the field.
Unless I am in the dark about five new NFL ready senior OL transfers, I don't know why anyone should be under the impression that this team will be significantly better than last year.
and I will believe this for the next several months.
She also predicted 10-2 for last season too. So there's that
Well, to be fair, we didn't know at this time last year that Michigan was going to field the worst offensive line in their history and arguably the most underperforming offensive line in the history of NCAA football. And they still finished two plays (a field goal and a 2 point conversion) away from winning nine games.
And we were basically 3 more plays (Akron, UCONN, and Northwestern) from being not bowl eligible.
The point is if you're taking an objective look at last year's season, you can't just look at the plays we missed out on.
You can look at both sides, and should. But it doesn't make his assertion any less true.
The point is that even with the line playing so poorly, we could have won 9. Slight uptick in line play, and we could hit 9. More importantly, maybe, with a slight uptick in line play, we should comfortably beat the Akrons and UConns of the world.
Right, but if you expect the offense to be even marginally improved by the addition of Nuss, the simplification of the scheme, and the more evenly balanced (in terms of experience) O-line, then it is pretty reasonable to think that we are inching slowly upward rather than down. We are also getting more talented and athletic on both sides of the ball with the addition of Hoke's recruiting classes.
The point is that even with marginal improvement, the close wins become more comfortable and the closes losses become close wins. And if you don't think that the team will likely improve on last year's terrible record, then we should have cleaned house on the staff and started over. Personally, I expect improvement, even if just barely, in a lot of areas, and those little improvements can have a huge impact on the outcome of a game.
on offense. He should complete the compliment handed out to Borges in his final regular season game and do to OSU what MSU did on defense. He definitely has the second and third level talent-probably better than MSU's of last season, although I don't know if they'll play that well. Sparty D was a bitch all year, as we know. I think we borrow a page from them and attack with backers coming forward and harassing what will probably be a gimpy qb. Think we get OSU this year. I'd like to see us win the games we're supposed to as you suggested, but that is the one thing that Brady has to prove still; ability to motivate on a weekly basis and make game time adjustments. We should drop a couple just because there are probably two teams we've yet to prove we're better than. And if the necessary improvement isn't made in terms of having team ready to beat those they should in first half, then we might lose a couple more. If we do that, Brady might be out the door as well. Talent? Yeah, we got it. It's those few guys on the sidelines w/o uniforms, i.e., Hoke and Funk who still have to make believers out of me. And, of course, I hope they do. 10-2 wouldn't surprise. I mean, Hell it was just two years ago South Bend played in the BCS finale.
it's possible to look at things from more than one angle. And to accept other points of view. Humans. . . wierd that way.
Go eat some yogurt
If the O line is not a cluster fu%# of a dumpster fire then 10-2 is attainable. 9 wins should be the min. If either Green or Smith run for 500 yards this season, that would be a success.
She's great and I like her, but she is a pretty big Brady Hoke fan. This is about like me last year saying without a doubt we were going to win the B1G. It's more of a hope thing then probably what's going to happen; however, I do hope that I am wrong and we go 14-0.
Isn't this the first year with the four team playoff?
Oh, yes. 15-0. I simply keep forgetting about the playoff, because I have this eerie feeling that we will not be in it this season.
Man would it be fun to see your eerie feeling proved wrong...
A recent chat with her at DetNews suggested she believes he could be gone if there isn't significant improvement. She's just always very. . . cordial.
If she is a Hoke fan, she isn't doing any him favors by putting that prediction out there. People will now argue "Even his budy Chengelis said he should have won 10 games" if he only wins 8 or 9 games.
It kind of reminds me how Lou Holtz has screwed every ND coach by routinely predicting ND to be in the running for the National Title and, at a minimum, win a BCS game. The Domers take it as gospel and then go nuts when the team goes 9 and 3.
10-2 strikes me as a best case scenario for this team.
10-2 really isn't the best case scenario. You're talking about losing to MSU and Ohio I'm taking it. Msu returns 4 starters on defense, granted they have smacked us around but come on now, have a chance here. We came with in a 2 point convertion of beating OSU last year with a very young/ confused O line.
We have a ton of players who we have been waiting to turn the corner for awhile. Frank Clark and Jake Ryan are playing for their futures now. 10-2 should be the floor not the ceiling. Everybody on our schedule is extremely beatable. We play in the Big Ten which has sucked for almost a decade.
I didn't say that those would be the two games that we loose, nor am I ready to say that we will all of the other games.
Here is my point - undefeated or one loss teams are pretty exceptional. Think about it - even good teams loose games that they should win. This is not always the fault of the coaches. Sometimes Denard fumbles 5 times at ND, PSU connects on three Hail Marys with a CB in great position and you miss three FGs, ND beats MSU b/c the refs blew a couple of PI calls, UGA has two DBs bounce into each other and deflect the ball into the hands of an Auburn receiver, etc. (Think about the last two being reversed - MSU goes to the NCG.) You can't address this suff in stats, points, predictions or changing coaches. Shit just happens - particularly in college football.
To be a perfect or one loss team you need to be so damn good that you overcome all the unknowns. At best, we are good enough to only losse twice. My gut prediction is that we loose 4 plus the bowl game.
Put it another way, do you really think that this team is as good, or just one ot two losses worse, than 1997? No way. They are not even close to that level, even if you adjust for the schedule. The 2014 defense is not that good, the OL is far worse, Devin hasn't show Griese's ability to read defenses and not turn it over, the RBs could turn out to be better but haven't shown it yet, etc.
My guess is that those predicting 10-2 as the floor are one of two things: 1) super-optimistic fans who just beleive in Michigan so much, or 2) want to be able to call for a coaching change even if we go 9 and 3. Maybe you are neither, but I think people are setting the bar pretty high so they can call for Hoke's head later.
I don't know if I'm more irritated by your use of "loose" or your saying that somehow the refs willed Notre Dame to a win against MSU.
Shit, I am sorry for the typo. That's on me.
However, I don't feel too bad since you missed the entire point and went with the douchey let-me-correct-your-typos post.
why not? shes afforded great access, or as great as great access can be at the fort, and always seems to have her questions addressed if not really answered. she writes fluff pieces for a rag...seems like a nice chick but its true...and her bosses apparently seem pleased with her work...so why not give coaches/ players/ teams the benefit of the doubt and maintain easy relations within the fort? they really could go 10-2 yet 3-4-5 losses seem more likely to most given the known vs unknown, roster makeup/ youth, head coaches ability, new systems, home games, etc
I'll have what she's having.
Hey Koolaid Man....
whatsit? Don't quite get how that guy's configured.
10-2 is certainly attainable if a few things go our way.
In order for anyone to go undefeated you have to have some things absolutely break your way several times in the season. With that you almost have to give everyone 1 loss off of the top regardless. Yes, even Sparty this year ! The team certainly has the potential to get to 10 and 2 and in fact it is better potential than last year in retrospect.
Notre Dame will be tough, but we should have won two seasons ago if not for Denard having a career - worst game. We all felt so bad for him. That was hard for him to take. With that we only lost by what, 6 points? Good shot at this game.
I don't think NU is the team of last year or prior years. We should be good there, just need consistency by the skill guys and the line to play solidly.
I hate to say it but I believe that MSU away will be a perhaps tougher game than OSU away. The team psychology and rivalry with State is very different this year ; ).
Go Blue and God bless the doubters !
I don't have the records in front of me but I wasn't NU not very good last year?
Actually, NU started out very good. The OSU game for them unfortunately really impacted that team and they struggled afterwards. Still a good team and always dangerous.
Eh, not sure I agree with this statement. Northwestern was better than their record showed, but what people refused to acknowledge is that they were way worse than their 2012 record showed. If things had balanced out they would have been a 7-5 type team for each of the last two seasons, which isn't exactly something to write home about.
Think about this, the only bowl team that Northwestern beat last season was Syracuse, who ended up going to the Texas Bowl. Northwestern was better than 5-7, but they weren't that close to having some banner year. Even if you swap their OT games, they're sitting at 7-5 and it's not like Iowa or Michigan were great last year either (their OT opponents). Plus, if you add in their Hail Mary loss to Nebraska, they get to 8-4.
The only good team they faced that they played close was OSU, and as close as many of us think that game was, it's not like Northwestern lost on a bad call or something. They were also completely dismantled against MSU and Wisconsin. If a few plays had broken well for Northwestern, they could have snuck to 8-4 and maybe even 9-3, but we're not talking about some great team here.
Was it the OSU game that really impacted them or all the grumblings about a union in their locker room? They did beat Illinois though. Man Illinois was a tire fire last year.
from sports wagering standpoint, northwestern has had an incredible 2-3 year run...the number of games theyve failed to cover (or win) in the 4th quarter over past few years in just incredible and theyve had some historic meltdowns. should be very interesting year for nu though since they get marc back for 5th yr but lose colter and likely roll with that pocket passer
Unfortunately, the 2 comes against Sparty and Ohio, so even with a 10 win season, a 6-2 record in conference is probably only good enough for, at best, a tie for 2nd in the East Division.
I'm worried about the Utah and Penn State games. Utah has a bye week before playing us and everyone knows the ND game will be emotional this year given it is the last game of the series. I keep waiting for PSU to crater but it hasn't happened. I thought the second coaching change in the sanctions era would doom them but they ended up with James Franklin.
I know it is May but 10-2 seems very optimistic. I think the most important thing (for me atleast) is to go 7-0 at home this season. Winning at home keeps the masses happy and if we can take care of Rutgers and Northwestern on the road I'll be happy regardless of what happens @ND, MSU, and OSU.
Yeah, I think that if Franklin stays at Penn St. for a while they will be tough. They are going to be a huge pain in the ass. I also think that Gary Anderson @ Wisconsin will do good too. The Big Ten isn't going to be easy to conquer in the coming years. However I still feel, even at this moment, that UM's roster is probably better than anyone on their schedule, exept maybe OSU and they may be about even.
You'll be happy if we lost @ ND, MSU, and OSU? I sure as hell won't be happy, and I doubt if very many other Michigan fans will be either. Especially in year 4 of the Hoke era.
I just laid out my minimum expectations and if we meet them I'll be happy. Obviously beating ND, MSU, and OSU should be a priority but given the state of the program I am not expecting it.
But it is a very real possibility and one of the reason we may only win 6 to 8 games this year.
Worse case loses: ND, UT, PSU, NU,MSU and OSU. Then MN and IN will be tough games and possible losses. Hoke needs to finish 6-6 to have another season.
Most likely, loses: ND, PSU, MSU and OSU
I'll be happy, loses PSU and OSU.
Hoke is not getting another season if they finish 6-6.
Why the Franklin love? I'd rather have him there than BOB. Franklin doesn't have a great resume. Reminds me of Hoke. Great recruiter, not much else.
No love just impressed that they didn't end up with some coach I've never heard of.
Given what's coming out now about his time at Vanderbilt, it might have been better had PSU gotten someone a little more under the radar
Anyone who can win at Vanderbilt can't be taken lightly.
well he did pretty well at vandy given the resources as well as previously so hes not just a recruiter. hes also proven to be very good recruiter and will continue to reel them in as they inch closer to expiring sanctions. plus franklin is a charismatic dirtbag and will seemingly do whatever it takes to win recruits/games,etc and i think its pretty obvious by now that morally deficient coaches like meyer and saban etc will almost always outperform nice guys like hoke pretending to preach from nonexistent pedestals. um should beat psu, just as they should have last yr, but we all saw how that went. sure its possible but, among other things, um needs to finish plays, drives and games if they want to sniff 10-2
nyquist writes: "I know it is May but 10-2 seems very optimistic. I think the most important thing (for me atleast) is to go 7-0 at home this season. Winning at home keeps the masses happy and if we can take care of Rutgers and Northwestern on the road I'll be happy regardless of what happens @ND, MSU, and OSU."
7-0 at home would be nice, but I don't think many people will be happy if we crap the bed @ND, MSU, and OSU this year. Hoke needs to show he can take his team into a tough environment like South Bend, East Lansing, or Columbus and actually win a rivalry game on the road. Playing both Sparty and the Buckeyes on the road the same season is a raw deal (why did Brandon ever agree to that?!), but if the team is good enough this year to at least gain a split, I'll feel more confident about our future with Hoke.
Phew! That's a relief. Let's start looking forward to 2015.
They're the new Northwestern IMO...and I'm sure they're pissed from last year's basketball on turf game.
If they're the new Northwestern, who's the new Indiana?
My vote is for Maryland. Decent basketball tradition to accompany doormat level performance on the football field. Sounds like Indiana to me.
I don't know... Maryland has been pulling in some really good recruits in recent years. Maybe it won't translate into wins, but I just don't see them being everyone's doormat.
Maryland has the potential to be really good at some point because of the talent available in DC/MD/VA. The DC area just isn't big on college football, though, and that's my guess as to what holds them back.
It's truly sad how far they've fallen since Brees and Orton, and there are no signs of improvement.
the world's biggest drum is stupid. They deserve to lose...
That and the last time I went to a game there we were up 28-10 at halftime and life was good... then came the saddest ride home...
Lloyd stopped trying to win in the 4th quarter and it bit him in the ass.
Rutgers or Purdue. There's always a great chance that the new Indiana is the old Indiana.
Purdue...except not in BB.
I can't stand it when people look to last year's result as a reason why a team would be more motivated to win a game this year. Look, we flat out embarrassed IU's defense last season (as did just about everyone else they played), but that fact will have no impact on their performance in an isolated 60-minute stretch this season, nor will it give them any special superpowers that will make them extra unbeatable.
We got stomped by MSU last season, and yeah it sucked, but that fact is not going to change anything about this time around. Our guys are going to come out 1000% firing on all cylinders and will win because they are motivated to do so, from within and from their coaches and because we are the better team, not because they are extra super mad about a past result.
then Bo Schembechler would have liked to have a word with you in 1969 in the months leading up to the OSU game.
Does the previous season's result always serve as a motivation? No, but if you think it never has an impact you're simply wrong, and the history of college football all over the country shows you're wrong. Football is a game of emotion.
I think that early in the season they are actually a disadvantage. I'd rather our team have an extra game under their belts.
10-2 with the two losses coming to OSU and MSU, or 8-4 with losses to lesser teams on the schedule (@Northwestern, @Rutgers, vs. Minnesota, vs. Utah for example)?
Since both scenarios probably leave Michigan out of the picture of the B1G Championship game, both make me equally unhappy.
I don't want to lose to teams we should beat. we might hate them the most, but there is no shame in losing to good teams
Honestly? Probably 8-4 with wins against Msu and osu. It's sad we've even come to this point.
If we beat MSU and OSU, I won't care if we lose four games to some other scrubs. I'd rather one of them not be Notre Dame though. So . . . we beat MSU, OSU, and ND and go 8-4? That's a good year. Really good.
I think 8-4 and beating those 2 rivals will be better (which is counter intuitive) because
a) we have zero leg to stand on with 1 rival for 6 years, and zero leg to stand on with another rival for 12 years. We need to freaking make these competitive rivalries again.
b) those are going to be 2 of the top 3 teams on our schedule so if I saw we could beat the better teams but we make dumb mistakes to lose to lesser teams at least I know we have potential and we are the victim of mistakes of a youthful team. If we however beat who we should beat but lose to better teams it just means we are beating average teams that are much like us. I'd rather see the potential of beating top end teams and go into 2015 having that confidence.
I'll take 10-2 at this point in the season (yes, I know it is not Football yet - that comes after Summer, before Basketball)! For real though, it seems like she just arbitrarily pick a winner based on nothing.
the word UNACCEPTABLE, but losses to MSU "and" OSU again truly is UNACCEPTABLE.
but I somehow doubt the O-line will be good enough to allow us to get to 10 wins. I'm still expecting 7 or 8
With who as the coach?
Is it bad that I saw 10-2 and my initial reaction was "LOL"? I'm thinking it's bad.
That was more-or-less my reaction too, though. I'm pretty beaten down when it comes to the footall team.
Picking Michigan to beat everyone except OSU and MSU is DIFFERENT than picking them to go 10-2. For Example, If I thought Michigan had a 65% chance to win each game, I'd still pick them on a game-by-game basis but then overall I'd expect them to go 8-4. You see how probabilities work?
I'm sure if you forced Angelique to set probabilities and then did the math, she'd be more at 9-3 or even 8-4. That's just not how the media has ever done predictions because its easier to think in black and white (either X is true or Y is true, the truth is usually in between).
A correct method for picking an overall record is to use the Mathelete's technique.
But you do realize that if you do that, you don't set the MSU or OSU games to 0%, right? It cuts both ways.
There's a difference between binomial distribution and predicting a set of outcomes. You can make the math work out such that you can predict a team to go 10-2 with three predicted losses (9 games at 99% win probability + 3 games at 33% win probability). Which is fine (KenPom does that). But if someone says "Michigan will beat everyone but ND, MSU, and OSU," that DOES equal a 9-3 record.
Yes, I do understand that the MSU and OSU games would not be 0%. Maybe 25% for each of them.
But the point is that if you think we're favored in 10 games of 12, there is a lot more downside in games where we're favored but may lose anyways (see Akron, UCONN and PSU last season) than there is upside in games we're undogs in but may pull out a win. There are 10 opportunities to underperform vs. 2 to overperform.
My only point is that the thread title is misleading, because no where in the article does it state that a 10-2 record is being predicted. All that we learn from the article is who is favored in the writer's mind on a game by game basis. If you did the correct math, this could actually be anything from 5-7 (assuming 50.1% in each game she has us winning, 0% in others) to 11-1 (assume 100% in the games she has us winning and 49.9% in the other 2).
Any reasonable math mapping her statements (predicting close wins against ND, PSU, IU) to probabilities nets out with 8-4 or 9-3.
"FINAL RECORD: 10-2." On the OH slide. I get what you're saying, and likely Angelique would too, but the article does say 10-2.
Aren't you an attorney? What are you doing at the Math table?
/Collects things, eats lunch in closet.
Yeah, no. That's not a good season. At all. Winless vs rivals and no division title?
To another restaurant bowl we go!
Normally I would agree but I'd be perfectly content with 10-2 given the current state of affairs.
I think the whole season rests on how well the O-line comes together. The defense is just loaded with talent. I just have a sneaky suspicion they will be elite this year. We have a 5th year senior QB leading the offense. There are certainly hard games on the schedule but I think MSU takes a step back. They lost a lot on defense from last year. Losing space eater D-tackles can't be understated. Those guys kept the LB's clean all season long which contributed to their success. I think 10-2 would be a good season, but I really just want to see the team take steps forward. There is just too much talent for Michigan to field a mediocre team.
I think our D definitely has the potential to be elite, but all of that determination is going to come down on the D line. If we're getting pressure on the QB and can eat enough space that our LBs can shut down the run game up the middle, we're not gonna give up more than a TD or two per game.
will prevent us from losing 6 or 7 games. May be the O line will come around during the 2nd half of the season?
2014 is not going to be about winning the division or the Big Ten or even beating rivals (although any of these would be nice). 2014 will be about getting this program back on it's feet, establish a winning and physical way and getting rid of the shit storm of negativity that surrounds it. That's all I want to see.
Until we show competence on the road, players and coaches, we will be a 7-8 win program. We will need to have a top 3 D in the B1G.
House money: 10-2
My money: 8-4
Until we improve our fundamentals and develop a couple of more impact players (offensive and defensive) it is 8-4 and second tier bowl games.
I really don't see it. At this point, I have no reason to believe the team will be any better than last season. I desperately want to be terribly wrong, but I am not going to lie and convince myself that we'll have 10+ wins like I do every other off season.
Thats because they havent played since last season... No one has seen anything. It's merely the difference between being an optimist and a pessimist.
Or, it is the difference between being realistic and living in fantasy land.
My prediction 15-0, national champs bitches
Michigan will have to win 2 of the three big road games against ND, MSU and OSU to go 10-2. You know they will lose a close game to a middling team like PSU or NU. The worse case would be 6 wins but that would be difficult to do unless the OL turns out to be a real tire fire! Realist 8-4 with 9-3 or 7-5 possible.
Id rather be 2-10 and reverse her picks. I can't take anymore losses to the evil twins.
2-10 with wins over MSU and OSU and our recruiting goes completely down the toilet.
10-2 with losses to MSU and OSU and we can pull in a heck of a class in 2015 and 2016.
Well, that is the expectation at Michigan at a minimum.
Considering that I'm pretty bearish on this upcoming season (hoping for 8 wins, please don't let there be a second HORROR) you would think I'd be ecstatic if we went 10-2.
But I know that losing to Sparty and Ohio would really eat at me all winter, spring and summer long. The sad part is I will probably not be satisfied unless we beat 2 of our 3 rivals, and that's more important to me than the overall record this season (Most important is no more HORRORs)
Which of these teams we play on the road will be ranked? Looks like 3.
9-3 with PSU and NW being a tossup.
There is a lot of talent on the team. The issue is whether the coaches can get them to play up to the level of their potential.
As Mgo-Bo wrote, "Aanything is possible in college football."
Do you notice that "osu" is autocorrected to "pay", and "msu" is autocorrected to "may"?
Is this where we get to log in and say something pessimistic?
I want to be part of the self-loathing!!! Let's grumble and complain about how disappointed we were with last year. Let's be a part of the fickle fan crowd!!
there is as much optimistic optimism as there is pessimistic pessimism on this thread. I suspect one can rationalize either--and without the latter being considered fickle or self-loathing. What would be your perjoratives for those who may be unrealistically optimistic?
There are not as many optimists posting here. That is my guess. The negative nancies are out if full force after last year. The optimists are often to posting here because the it is like swimming up river I this environment. Remember Brian had to put on his optimist hat in a recent mailbag and it was done begrudgingly.
It makes sense to be pessimistic. It's emotional self-defense 101:
1. Higher upside if things turn out well.
2. Less disappointment if things go poorly because "you knew it"
3. Easier to criticize than to support people.
People are mostly here to bitch and moan. It's because they have a sad face and don't want to be hurt again.
I am having a hard time with that. After what we have seen the last two years and not winning in the trenches.... 8-4 or 9-3.
that's an easy 10-2. I have a feeling they'll screw up at least one other game. Maybe 9-3.
It still won't win the Big Ten Championship, and another loss to OSU and MSU, Hoke's ass should still be on the hot seat in this case.
There's never a great way to do this in May when you don't have any data for the season, of course, but if we wanted to take the Sagarin ratings from this past season and do a little math for the sake of argument, we would possibly be 9-3 if we were to win all games in which the hypothetical margin was positive.
As all wins are not equally likely, consider that the calculated margins for five of those game are between 0 and 10 - Utah (0.78), Minnesota (7.21), Penn State (5.8), Indiana (7.21) and Northwestern (2.15). Rutgers, Maryland and Appalachian State are left as higer confidence wins based on last year's data.
The losses in this hypothetical? Notre Dame (-7.57), Michigan State (-18.53) and OSU (-14.34).
Keep in mind that this is only so useful as it is based on 2013 data and anything could happen this year. I simply find the exercise interesting regardless.
I'll be pleased with 9-3. win the games we're supposed to win by a comfortable margin and look competent while doing so and in the losses to ND, MSU, and OSU keep it close and competitive to the end. and I want it to seem like we're getting better every week.
....what we are now? A program with fans that are "pleased" with mediocrity.
...spring to support a 10-2 season.
Did you see anything in 2006 that would lead you to believe that the 2007 season would start with the Horror and one of the worst home losses in Michigan history?
The door swings both ways, never forget that!
I do not think we will go 10-2. However, we will be closer to that mark than 2-10. BRIGHT SIDE!
Why do we never include the bowl game in our win/loss projections? Clearly anything over 500 (and nobody so far is THAT pessimistic) results in a bowl game yet none of us (me included) ever include the bowl game results in our annual projections.
Why is that?
The article was only speaking about the known schedule. May predictions are hard enough when you know when, where and who. Not knowing what bowl and what opponent is even tougher.
Having said that, I've seen a lot of posts (including mine) where there'll be a discussion of "how many wins do you need?" and those benefit from inclusion of BTCG and Bowl predictions/discussions.
I wish...but wow man.
9 and freaking 3. (8-4 worst case).
Now please, you are unfortunately trespassing upon my front terrace premises (translation: get off my lawn!)
But O depends on the quality of last year's experience on the line. There are a decent number of guys coming back with a lot of plays under their belts. Not all of them will be starters, but they will all be involved. The question is, how useful is experience playing on such a bad line? Should be extremely useful, but with the change in coordinators, I'm just not sure.
I think it more likely that 10-2 would come with one win against either MSU or OSU, but also one close loss to somebody else, but not ND -- you don't get to 10-2 after losing to them.
It makes me want to puke that the general consensus is that the OSU and MSU games can be written off in May. And I don't fault anyone who feels that way, that's pretty much how it looks to me, too. I'm not saying Hoke doesn't deserve another chance, but anyone saying he shouldn't even be on the hot seat needs to pause and really give a thought to that point: it is considered a foregone conclusion that Michigan will not beat either OSU or MSU this year, which would drop Brady Hoke's record against them to 2-6. At what point is there SOME accountability?
When Hoke gets the opportunity to graduate a class of players he recruited, he becomes fully accountable for the successes and failures of the program. When blame can be heaped onto his predecessor (poor player retention under Rodriguez, few OL recruits, The Process), not so much.
Of course there are limits: despite past problems, I still think Michigan should be good enough to win 8 games against this schedule (prone to change depending on injuries, NCAA hammers, etc). But a 7-win season isn't time to fire Hoke, particularly when there isn't a stud hire to replace him with.
I'm not okay with 10-2 at all if that means the two losses are to our tied-for-first biggest rivals.
I'm no longer fearing NW until they can actually show they can live up to their hype.
I'll just be happy if we can win a game on the road against a team that's over .500 in the regular season, something we've yet to do since Hoke took over.
everyone needs to remember this is still a super young team. The way you bomb your program for 10+ years is to just keep switching things up every 3 years hoping something magically sticks.
I'll be disappointed if we only win 7-9 and Hoke is let go. It's just going to set us back again.
Realistically the roster is good enough to win more than 7 games this year especially with the home schedule. If we only get to 7 wins it will be a coaching failure barring injuries. IF Hoke needs to be replaced, the incoming coach will not have the roster challenges that both Hoke and Rodriguez faced.
Not calling for Hoke to be let go but I don't see why people think that hiring a new coach is a setback. Other teams seem to not have a problem with this.
Hiring a new coach, without taking into account the circumstances within which that hire is taking place, isn't a "setback" per se. But, very few things in life exist in a vacuum without the influence of surrounding circumstances.
I've said to anyone that will listen for years: Michigan football is clawing its way out of a hole the depth of which is nearly completely lost upon the fanbase. I've spent more time that I should researching and detailing (mostly on HailVictors/SackCarr) just how far Michigan's program slide, the near unimaginable scholarship deficits, attrition, outdated facilities, etc., that went into the near complete destruction of Michigan's recruiting and developmental pipeline.
These facts, when coupled with the RR debacle, make hiring a new coach (IMO) a serious "setback." The inner workings of the Michigan football program MUST be rectified BEFORE the reins are handed over to someone else. Hoke's not there yet, the depth chart is not there yet, the pipeline is not completely rebuilt at this point -- but we're getting there with every passing season.
I know this falls on many deaf ears. I know that many other Michigan fans out there only care about WINNING, and like to assume that Michigan SHOULD win, and if they don't it's because of the incompetence the coaching staff. Obviously, I disagree.
Michigan needs a stable environment within which to heal, nothing more.
My ears are open and I agree. The sport of football runs at a much slower pace then the other sports. Much slower. Most of the time if there are problems with a program it takes years, not games, to fix. Michigan is finally starting to build a solid and not pieced together roster. There is alot of talent, young, but it's there. 2013 was a dip and I believe that in 2014 we will see this team start trending up.
Sten: Can you post links to that research? I'd be interested in reading it.
The old HailVictors is gone, and I don't think I saved it anywhere, but I'll check.
I mostly detailed the roster, the scholarship deficits, the attrition, and the effect(s) those factors have had on Michigan going forward. Ironically, much of the impetus for delving into the historic record was in SUPPORT of Carr on the old SackCarr? site. I was a strong supporter of Carr's preceeding the Horror.
Basically, I found that Michigan's program began a slow slide during which it had a marked spike in attrition, and a marked decline in the number and quality of players it signed from Ohio. Some of this was the "lockbox" that Tressel put on Ohio recruits (whether due to above board reasons, or nefarious ones). Further, it included anticdotal "evidence" such as Ted Ginn Sr's comment about Carr and Michigan, and my own personal conversation with a former Texas football coach about Michigan's "issues."
I am convinced that Michigan is suffering from hubris, and that hubris arose from having and "old guard" who rested on the accomplishments of it's modern legendary coach for too long. They refused to look at the landscape of CFB and adapt with the times both in culture and in facilities while other programs were doing just that. Michigan's arrogance came back with a vengence.
My finding/opinions aren't encompassed in one post per se -- although some posts are more dense with findings than others. I'll see if I can find any of them.
IMO, RR was handed a ship that was barely afloat, let alone being able to actually navigate. I used to use the huge old mansion on the hill analogy -- from a distance it looked awesome, but when you went inside it was rotten to the core. RR didn't even look, he just jumped in, it was Michigan after all. Then the old guard that allowed the mansion to go to pot crucified him.
Personally, I think Brandon is well aware of all of this -- even though he fired RR. I think he knew that he was never going to get the healing that Michigan needed with RR at the helm because too many people blamed him for everything. He knows football, and he knows Michigan, and I think that he -- more than anyone else -- knows just how fragile Michigan's football program still is at this time. Anything that upsets the healing/rebuilding process must be avoided at all costs.
10-2 my ass. I really hope that happens, but I just don't see it.
Go ahead, down vote me all you want. I'm just thinking realistically.
I love it when people equate pessimism with realism. There's no telling what this team will do one way or the other, but teams go from awful to great all the time. From last year alone look at Auburn, FSU, and Sparty. Its not that unrealistic. We have the talent, and guess what- you hating the youth excuse doesnt change the fact that the team is very young.
I wouldn't say sparty was awful in 2012. They were coming off pretty solid campaigns in 2010-11, almost winning the first B1G title game. They lost a lot of stars, and their losses were all close in 2012. They weren't regressing week to week and getting mudstomped by their rivals every time.
"Awful to great?" Auburn sure, but FSU? FSU went 12-2 in 2012... As for MSU, they had some terrible luck in 2012. ND crushed them but other than that, they lost 5 B1G games by something like 13 points. They barely lost to us thanks to a last-second field goal.
They sure as hell didn't struggle to narrowly beat terrible teams like Akron and UCONN and get curbstomped by rivals. I'll take 2012 MSU offense over our travesty any day, at least they could run the ball.
We got curb stomped by MSU. That's it. We were a two-point conversion try away from knocking off OSU. We beat Notre Dame.
I think the MSU game did more damage to our fan base than anything else.
Am I scared as shit that we'll find a way to lose to App State again? Yes. But at least I know that's the irrational part of my brain working.
I don't think well go 10-2 at all, but:
Two years ago MSU struggled to beat Eastern. They also struggled to beat USF and Western this past year, they scored almost exclusively on defensive TDs.
And MSU lost 5 games by 13 points 2 years ago. Last year we lost 4 BIG games by 11 points. So there are compatibles. But I don't trust our line enough to make the same kind of jump.
Hey, guess what, we lost a lot of really close games too last year. You can say that is a good thing re: us and 2012 MSU or you can say it's a bad thing for us and 2012 MSU, but you can't say that was bad for us and a sign of a team that was thisclose re 2012 MSU
This has to be a 10+ win team. I'm sick of hearing about youth. You need actual results by year 4. Sick of the excuses. WIN a big road game elite coaches can do that and have them play at a high level every week. Hopefully Nuss isn't brain dead like Borges.
I just don't see 10-2
I would like to believe it, but I just don't see it. I can't imagine Hoke just suddenly morphing into a coach who can win big games, especially on the road. If it hasn't happened by now, I don't think it will.
I mostly want the team to play hard and smart, every game. I really disliked that Michigan backed into several wins last year, and didn't play well. I can live with losses if we play our heart out, don't make stupid mistakes, and are in all the games, with the exception of maybe MSU.
Regarding those who state it is "UNACCEPTABLE" for Michigan to lose to MSU or Ohio, what planet are you living on? Let me rephrase this. I think Hoke and Mattison would also say it is unacceptable. But the reality is that we are partially hamstrung by our offensive line and new receivers and the defense of Michigan State. I 'THINK" our defense will be much improved, but that remains to be seen. If Michigan plays to the best of its ability, and the coaches have a good game plan, I just can't be too upset if a better team beats us. Between the skill of the players, their experience, and luck, you aren't guaranteed any wins.
To me, it isn't a foregone conclusion that Michigan will lose to MSU and Ohio. If our defense really improves, and our offensive line is at least mediocre to average, and one of the running backs steps up, and a couple more receivers step up, and we don't have extensive injuries, well, we could win. But that is needing way too many things to line up right. It "might" happen, but we can't expect it to happen.
I personally believe that Michigan will be somewhere between 8 - 4 and 10 -2. Having a 9 - 3 or 10 - 2 record, with improvement over the course of the season, and a win against MSU or Ohio, would make this season very successful in my estimation.
Coming back to my original point, it isn't just wins and losses. It really is about how you play the game. This year, I personally would rather have an 8 - 4 or 9 - 3 record where we competed and were beat fair and square, than a 10 - 2 record where we lucked out a bunch of times.
Correct. I earlier stated something similar in that I believe that this season should not be about if this team can be all world, win the Big Ten, etc. It should be about showing improvement and that they are on the right track. As a couple of the posters alluded to earlier the 2013 team was a few plays away from winning anywhere from 5 to 9 games. A little more improvement and consistency could easily be enough to propel this team to 9-10 wins.
I remember my first beer.
The real headline here should be "Angelique Chengelis Awakes From Ten-Year Coma"
But I am expecting 8-4 with another bowl loss to cap off another 5 loss season
I'm usually wrong about these things, so I'll say 7-5 (7-6) in the hopes that my track record continues.
This team is desperate. Never underestimate a desperate team.
9-3 underestimates them.
YOU DONT LIVE BY YOUR OWN RULES!!!
Hoke fired immediately after bowl game (win or loss). Mgoblog broken for days. Reports of fan suicides occuring in the state of Michigan.
People keep making predictions and have simple answers for what has to occur. To go 10-2 means the team has to play at an exceptional level. Here is what has to happen this year that did not happen last year or what has to happen because of players lost to graduation.
Gardner has to be the starting QB and be heathy the entire year. He has to play at an exceptional level and make plays to win games. If Morris is having to play serious reps we are in big trouble.
The individuals who compose the five starters on the Oline must make significant improvements. This includes the two projected tackles who did not get significant reps or any at all due to injuries. The Oline has to be good enough that when it is 3rd and 2 to go the other team has to respect the run.
The defense must generate two to four play makers. The defense did well in the context of playing as 11. However, we were hurt because few big plays were made that turned a possesion. We were not particulary good at generating sacks or QB pressures. When they did occur rarely was it with a standard rush. One of these play makers should be Peppers. How many games did we lose last season because the Offense of the other team made a play late to win the game?
Someone needs to step up to be a one tech double team monster. Its really hard to beat the best teams if you do not have a run stopper in the middle. If teams are not able to dictate the pace of the game Mattison has the freedom to play chess and win the rock paper scissors war.
Funches needs to go from guy who makes a few great plays and then drops the ball to sommeone who catches everything. One or two other receivers need to step up and not neccesarilly catch everything but make plays.
If most of this happens then we can talk about Big Ten titles and BCS bowls. If most of this does not happen, 10 victories is a pipe dream. So ask of the list above what do you believe is likely?
the team does have the talent to go 10-2. They are not yet good enough to win the B1G title.
Angelique knows Michigan will have more pepp in its step this year.
First year new OC, I'd be happy if they beat MSU and Ohio and make a decent bowl. 10-2 is highly optimistic. Glass half-full 8-4.
I've always been saying 8-4. Anyhting more would be a bonus, and even 7 wins with some growth would be okay.
10 wins “feels” like too much. Especially given the kick in the balls the past two seasons, but game-by game her predictions aren’t wildly optimistic and 9-10 wins isn’t ridiculous given the schedule.
Reasons for optimism…generally:
Reasons for pessimism…generally:
Here is how I see it. Special teams should be above average (maybe even exceptional with a certain recruit on returns). The offense becomes OK with a decent running attack (i.e. minimal losses) and Devin plays good with decent receivers. The difference is our defense...While most of you guys were bitching about the offense last year...I wanted our defense to be 1997 us or 2013 MSU...That is, WIN THE GAME BY YOURSELF!...unfortunately Hoke/Mattison played it soft or maybe they had to...with the changes made this year (Ryan to MLB, coaching changes, Lewis starting at corner, and most importantly a certain prospect coming in) I see a defense that will win the 9 non-rival games and win 2 of the 3 rival games...It would be great to win our division with that...but that part we will wait and see....should be a fun year...Plus I am going to both the ND and OSU games...so lets hope we win both of those, I have a perfect track record on away games I have attended
I'll have what he's having.
Let's face it: 2015 is the year this program is really building toward. We get a favorable schedule with MSU and OSU coming to Ann Arbor, and we'll have almost everybody important back save Gardner, Ryan, and Morgan. Hoke's great recruiting classes should finally be making a big impact, particularly in the trenches on both sides of the ball. If Sugar Shane is ready to take the reins at QB as a junior, 2015 should -- SHOULD -- be the year when Michigan football resumes crushing its enemies, seeing them driven before us, and hearing the lamentations of their women.
But we gotta get there first, and not suffer another coaching transition in the interim. Hoke's seat is deservedly hot; we need to see the following this year for him to return for a big 2015:
Do all that and you're at least 9-3, maybe 10-2, and more importantly, it's clear to everyone (players, coaches, AD, fans & alums, recruits) that the trajectory of the program is heading the right direction. That means Hoke returns in 2015, and we are set up for bigger success.
2017 is really gonna be special. That's the year to watch. Hold on tight!
The talent is certainly there to win 10 games. No question about that. But will it happen? I doubt it. Hoke hasn't beaten one team on the road that had a winning record at the end of the season. And we have to go to ND, MSU (sigh...again), and OSU. At this point in time, I'd be shocked if we beat any one of those teams in their own stadium.
At this point, all I'm hoping for is that there is just clear week-to-week improvement, and no getting out coached. There's few things on this planet that are more infuriating than watching Bo Pelini out coach you in your own stadium. Even thinking about that makes me angry. I can live with losing to a team because they were just simply the better team and that was it. But not getting out coached.
Until proven otherwise, I see next year being 0-3 against the rivals, if for no other reason than that Hoke can't win road games until he proves he can, and we'll probably drop a game that we shouldn't, like Penn State. 8-4, followed by another loss to an SEC team in the bowl game to round out a meh 8-5 season.
I hope I'm wrong. I want Hoke to make me eat crow and make me look like a fool.
10 and 2 as long as its against the thugs and O$U. THe He&^ with ND ...
What if one of the losses is to Appalachian State?
We demand Michigan football post an impressive record this season, and will react with doubt and ridicule toward any homer that actually predicts same. We are counting on being disappointed and outraged this fall, and we will not be denied.
But the separation from the good old boys club didn't work either. We're fucked.
I'll grant you that. But they're not going away. Again, we're fucked!
I would feel better about her prediction if she had more than a photo caption for each game and said a little more about why she thought one team would win.
Is it just me or would you all feel more comfortable going 8-4 and beating our rivals, or at least 9-3 and splitting with them. I don't think dropping both of them will sit well with the fan base.
I'm saying 7-5 including a loss at Rutgers (but with at least one rivalry win) .
Hoke . . . stays. (Brian must be restrained from immolating himself outside Schembechler Hall)
Well this was the point that Hoke stepped in to take over what would have been RichRod's year 4. I don't think any of us expected 11-2 that year.
I have no idea what's going to happen. Hopefully it will be a more fun ride than last year's journey.
In other accurate predictions from people with similar football knowledge, my 22-month old daughter has predicted that, when counting, five comes after three. (Somewhat supporting evidence came from King Arthur when he threw the Holy Hand Grenade, though he believed five came right after two, despite being warned it was "right out.")
Seriously, who gives a rat's ass what Angelique predicts Michigan's football record will be?
Upset OSU, probably not MSU. PSU will be tough.
I urge you to not fall into the trap of the "Next year is our year" folly. If Hoke is anything less than 9-3 with this schedule his seat should be pretty toasty. But you can't fire him without have a valid succession plan.
2027 will finally be "the year". Book it.