how long do I have?
them's some disparaging numbers there. one can only hope rrod and the squad belie those historical numbers.
|First Two||Total #||Total||Total||Total||Conf.|
|Indiana||Harlan O. "Pat" Page||1926-30||5||14||24||3||0|
|Indiana||Earle C. "Billy" Hayes||1931-32||3||6||14||4||0|
|Indiana||Clyde B. Smith||1948-49||4||8||27||1||0|
|Indiana||Bernie A. Crimmins||1952-53||5||13||32||0||0|
|Michigan State||Frank "Muddy" Waters||1980-81||3||10||23||0||0|
|Northwestern||Charles E. Hammett||1910-11||3||6||10||2||0|
|Northwestern||Fred J. Murphy||1914-15||5||16||16||1||0|
|Northwestern||Elmer W. McDevitt||1920-21||2||4||10||0||0|
|Penn State||Robert A. "Bob" Higgins||1930-31||19||91||57||11||0|
|Purdue||M. Frank "Bill" Horr||1910-11||3||8||11||1||0|
|Purdue||Cleo A. O'Donnell||1916-17||2||5||8||1||0|
|Purdue||James M. "Jimmy" Phelan||1922-23||8||35||22||5||0|
how long do I have?
them's some disparaging numbers there. one can only hope rrod and the squad belie those historical numbers.
Coach Rodriguez has been showing a penchant for ignoring historical statistics.
Hopefully his penchant continues for this particular one, and he sets new standards for the others.
Nice table and info. Not to nitpick, but PSU didn't join the Big 10 until 1990, so I'm not sure if you can really count Higgins.
But to be fair, let's also notice that there is a theme amongst the teams listed - they tend to be mediocre programs that have historically had a hard time recruiting and staying with the powers in the conference. Combined, those 5 teams have 54 Big Ten titles; UM alone has 42. UM can always recruit, and that makes me think that once the right players show up, results will follow. I'm not trying to knock your work, but I do think that is a major asterisk when considering these results.
concur - but the fact that UM/OSU haven't ever been here isn't history that comforts me. I'd like to break down the stats for the rest of the BCS teams, but at some point there's unfortunately (at least for me) a time limit.
NW, Indy, Iowa, etc. had been struggling BEFORE those guys got into the job.
I'm not discounting the downward trend UM was under Carr in the 2000's, but RichRod's 2nd year should be a lot better by now. We have REGRESSED and in a very bad way. No way should this team have given up 500 yds and 38 points to both Illinois and Purdue. GERG had a while to get this team ready to hold opponents to "only" 25 points a game.
I think either RichRod gets 8 wins next year, or we will get a new coach who can spark some interest. Even Pete Carroll, after a morobound 2nd John Robinson and Paul Hackett era, had SOME talent at USC to start with. The next UM coach, if RichRod is indeed canned this year or next, will have something to work with.
To expand on what bronxblue said:
Illinois: While they have won 5 NCs and 15 Big 10 championships total, their last NC was 1951 and they've only had 3 Big 10 championships since the mid 60s. All of the 2 losing season streaks have been since they stopped being such a contender.
Indiana: They have 2 Big 10 championships ever. And one was from a guy on your list. Enough said.
Iowa: 1 NC in 1958 (even though they were 8-1-1 and LSU was 11-0). 12 Big 10 championships, only 5 since the 60s. And all 5 since the 60s were with two of the coaches listed.
MSU: 6 NCs in the middle of the century, 6 big 10 championships. Not surprising.
Minnesota: 6 NCs (most recent was 1960). 18 Big 10 championships (most recent was 1967). Both of the coaches on your chart were since they stopped being a contender.
Northwestern: 8 Big 10 titles. I'm losing motivation to keep looking up years as these aren't listed on wikipedia (or at least I didn't see them).
PSU: As noted by another poster, they weren't even in the Big 10 then.
Purdue: 1 NC in 1931. 8 Big 10 titles, somewhat spread out throughout the years, although only one since 1967.
Wisconsin: 11 Big 10 titles. Again, I don't see the years listed on the wiki page.
Thinking of MSU...if it was harder to burn couches mid century...
It's funny to me that MSU has the same number of Big 10 championships as National Championships (though to be fair, two of the NCs were before they were in the Big 10). And that Northwestern has more Big 10 championships.
Chicago has more Big Ten Championships, and they left the conference actively in football in the 1940s.
Michigan is different than those teams. Even if those trends pan out in this case, the administration has to do what is in the best interest of the University. Cutting bait is a cute phrase but it doesn't give us what we want: a winning program.
If you've lost faith in RR consider that giving him more time (at least through 2010) is still probably the fastest way to a recovery. No one worth their salt would come here if we canned RichRod right now. We'd be picking from people who failed at other places rather than up an comers (Brian Kelly, Urban Meyer, Rich Rodriguez).
Personally, I'd like to see what the team does next season before casting a ballot.
This is right; not just statistically but also psychologically for players and coachers. And this is what worries me for the first time about RR and the direction of the program. I'm hopeful that things will straighten out next year (or even for the last two games this year), but I'm genuinely worried that the swagger and aura of invincibility about M football is indelibly damaged. The players are young and don't have the historical perspective of M football to keep their expectations in line with tradition. The coachers haven't been here and the same could be said for them. Us, as fans, hurt because we know where M has been and where we should be. Fans' expectations might be the last to change. RR was shockingly despondent in his post-game presser today--I've never seen a college coach so broken. For anyone who's ever been an athlete, you know how vital a winning mentality is. I fear that mentality might be slipping away. The ceiling at M should be a national championship every year. The fans, players, and coaches need to believe that and aspire to that. Let's beat Wisco and OSU, and if not, show the '97 team highlights on loop during the offseason.
In the main I quite respect your takes; however, this is not MSU valiantly trying to "rise from the ashes" every half decade or so...it seems a bit...hmmmm...hyperbolic related to conclude two seasons indeliably damages the brand.
Anyway, just my take. I would enjoy beating Wiscy and tUofOS.
I think winning immediately brings back any aura you are talking about. USC, OU, Texas, Alabama, PSU and Miami off the top of my head had extended stretches (like longer than a year and 3/4) where they weren't even a blip on the national landscape in recent years. Once successful coaches got the ball rolling, that aura/tradition/invincibility or whatever you want to call it all came back really quick.
When the elite programs (Michigan among them) are winning, the MOJO is in full effect. I also think Rodriguez is just sick of getting grief for a process that is only halfway through. If you baked a cake and people kept coming in and saying you fucked it all up when you had just put the thing in the oven, you would get a little frazzled too. He probably doesn't like Michigan losing any more than the rest of us do, either.
You give good examples of "aura" teams that had down periods and rose again. I'm not going to do the research right now, but I wonder how many of those renaissances were the direct result of a new coaching hire and a resultant new culture (e.g., Saban at Bama, Carrol at USC, Stoops at OU). And this is my point: I worry that RR's regime is becoming associating with losing, for players, coaches, and ultimately fans. It's hard for the guy who bears the association to change it.
By no means do I think M won't be back, but, fair or not, coaches become associated with winning or losing and it's hard to break out of that. I do think that RR can undo all this if he has a break through next year, but I think it's gonna be tough for him to do it. Again, fair or not, cupboard was bare or not, there's a psychological component that sticks and has real traction
Who cares about statistics? Statistics mean nothing to the individual, you either are going to be a good coach or you aren't going to be a good coach.
(Scrubs reference not actually bashing the OP in any way, Scrubs is just awesome)
Not one team on that list has anything approaching the historical success of Michigan. That goes a long way towards expressing those numbers. Also, note that the successful coaches are much more recent (4/8 since 1992, 3/8 coached in this decade).
Hayden Fry, Kirk Ferentz, and Barry Alvarez are all "modern" era coaches who made it. If M could replicate their teams, that would be fine.
Ferentz went 4-19 during his first two seasons, 7-5 his third, then 10-1(and a BCS trip to the Orange Bowl) in his fourth. Alvarez had a losing record for his first THREE seasons (1-10,5-6,5-6)before going 9-1-1 in season four, and winning the Rose Bowl vs. UCLA.
Give CoachRod time, and we will see results, no matter how painful it is right now.
You think the same records as those teams would satisfy Michigan fans? Lloyd did better than any of those three, and people kill him. They want MORE than that from Rich.
Fry, Ferentz and Alvarez won a combined 8 Big Ten titles in 46 years of coaching, roughly once every six years. Lloyd won 5 Big Ten titles in 13 years and RichRod was supposed to RAISE us from where we were.
Carr: 122-40 (.753)
Fry: 143-89 (.616)
Ferentz: 70-53 (.569)
Alvarez: 118-73 (.618)
I think more what Michigan Fans were holding out as a standard was a return to Michigan glory, maybe:
Schembechler: 194-48-5 (.802)
Tressel: 83-19 (.814)
Stoops: 109-24 (.819)
Brown: 115-26 (.815)
Carroll: 88-15 (.854)
I LIKE TURTLES?
data set is you are including programs and coaches that had little chance to ever win a Big Ten Championship regardless of whether they started with a winning record or not.
Illinois--2 of those coaches came in the Woody v Bo era, they had no chance.
Indiana--9 coaches and its Indiana, they never have a serious chance. This is not a lie, look it up.
Iowa--all 6 coaches before Hayden Fry came in a era when Iowa football was only better than Northwestern and sometimes Indiana.....but not always
Michigan State--Muddy inherited a post probation mess
Minnesota--both Gutekunst and Mason could not possibly have been expected to ever win a Big 10 title at Minnesota, not with the state that program has been in since the 60's
Northwestern--all 8 coaches before Barnett never had a chance
Penn State--do I even have to explain how a coach hired in 1930 for PSU could not win a Big 10 Championship
Purdue--again, throw out the two 70's era coaches, the rest are shakey, given the landscape of the Big 10 at the time
Wisconsin--throw out the 3 coaches prior to Alvarez' arrival again Woody v Bo era and UW was just simply an awful program from the mid 60's to late 80's.
So you can throw out 34 coaches who could never realisticly be expected to ever win a Big 10 title at their schools.
I don't think that what Gary Barnett did at Northwestern, or Glen Mason did at Minnesota, or Hayden Fry did at Iowa.....has any bearing on what RR can/should do at Michigan.
Apples and Oranges. Michigan is in a much better position to compete than any of those programs.
Otherwise, there was a lot of good data pulled for the post.
But is it more heartening to think that Michigan, OSU, PSU and MSU have been in this situation a combined two times? PSU was in the 1930s when they were playing the east coast, and MSU fired Muddy Waters after three years. This should reinforce the "unacceptable under any circumstances unless we want to join the conference basement with the others" argument, I would think?
Michigan fans why do you wish to play the waiting game!!! The team has some of the most talent in the country and if you honestly think that Michigan is losing due to lack of talent or system then you are an idiot. There are no excuses to ever have a losing record with this team. Michigan is a team that should compete for the B10 title every year and those of you who are making excuses for the coaching staff need to stop being so ignorant. Changes can be a good thing and in Michigan's case, change would be fantastic for the coaching staff.
some of the most talent? What are you talking about. I'll bet the 061592 is your bday and the reason for your ignorance. Plus you just created your account yesterday. Read and learn before spouting off.
Not all people born in June are ignorant!
Read some of Misopogon's posts. Attrition, esp on defense has killed us. We do not have "some of the most talent in the country". We don't even stack up well against the rest of the B10. We'll get there, but it's going to take some time.
Exactly how many of the 2009 Wolverines would have started for the 1997 national championship team? Here's my list:
Brandon Graham (might start for any Michigan team ever)
Donovan Warren (would be a solid #2 corner on the '97 team)
Anybody else? Brandon Minor would have seen some pt, Koger would have been the #2 or #3 TE, maybe Stonum is the third WR. Martin is in the mix for a D line spot. Molk, if healthy, gets a starting spot. And Zoltan, obv. Stevie Brown? maybe a starter. That's our third or fourth best defender now, and he MIGHT be a starter in 1997. So out of 24 starters (throwing in the kickers to make it closer), the current team has maybe five players better than their 1997 counterparts, with a few current starters as 1997 backups. There are a number of players (like all of our linebackers, much of the secondary, and some of the O-line) that probably don't make the two-deep in '97.
Also, the depth of that team was unreal compared to today's team. Remember, Dhani Jones started that year as a backup. That team lost two key starters on defense during the season and never missed a beat. Tom Brady, in his third season at U-M, was the THIRD STRING QB!
Sure, it's a little unfair to compare this team to the most successful Michigan team in the last 60 years, but it takes talent to win championships. We have some very talented individuals, but we just don't have very many of them. On defense, outside of Graham, Warren, and Brown, we have duct tape and baling wire. And it's not even very good duct tape.
Sorry to inject politics into this, but blaming Rodriguez for this is like blaming Obama for the economy right now. If it doesn't get better next year, then ok, but he's doing the best he can with what he found when he got here. Which, unfortunately, is a big pile of suck.
Why has everyone assumed that UM will lose both of the last two games? You can bet your asses that the players won't be "phoning in" either of the last two games. You guys can do what you want, but I think it would be better to postpone the funeral for the 2009 season until there is actually a corpse to bury.
I don't know what constitutes "good" anymore on defense; it's become a very relative term. But that said, it seems like we've played kind of good against the more run-heavy prostyle offenses that UW and OSU employ. Maybe a break from defending the spread will get us back on track. Hell, last time we faced a prostyle attack we were still a team on the rise. I think we can knock of UW and OSU if our offense keeps firing like it did yesterday.
I'm not of the opinion that anyone will phone in the last two games. Still too much character on the team with Minor and Graham.
We will be playing two of the best D's in the conference. UW plays tough at home and shut out Purdue, which runs the same offense that we do. Also, our D is good for at least 2-3 big scores a game. I just don't see the O keeping up on the road against an excellent D.
As for OSU, our best shot would have been if Pryor had stayed in his funk and lost yesterday. He looks much better than just a few weeks ago. His running will kill our D. Again, the Big Play Monster will bite us a few times in that game.
Let's face it, it isn't JUST coaching right now. These guys are not much better than a 7-5 team even with a good coach. Maybe next year, but not now.
At least I can say that the Offense is good most games. Even if you throw out the 63 pts vs. DSU, we are averaging 28 pts a game. The only really bad games were the PSU game and the 2nd half at Illinois. Last year, we couldn't stop anyone and we could score either!
At the rate they both are going, Ryan Mallett will win the Heisman Trophy before Rich Rod wins a Big Ten Championship.
Heck, at the rate the two are presently going, Mallett will win the Super Bowl before Rich Rod beats all of Notre Dame, MSU, PSU and OSU in the same seaon.
as that even happened?
I was curious myself, and looked it up. Has only happened once: 1997.
Not all statistics mean much. We are 0-1 in games that happen in a dome in New York. This does not mean that we will be forever doomed to lose games in New York forever.
You have to look at the context of your theories. Did we lose because we played in New York? Did we lose because of an indoor setting? Or perhaps it was something else... like Donovan F****** Mcnabb?
Like previous posters have said... look at those teams. Was Northwestern/Indiana/Illinois ever in a good position to win the Big Ten? I know for sure that PSU wasn't a threat in the 30's because they weren't even in the Big Ten...
You can take a lot from history, but meaningless stuff like "Purdue hasn't won in the big house in 37 years" ignores the fact that Purdue has mainly sucked, and we have been pretty good. The Big House didn't have mystical powers against Purdue that were disrupted by RichRod's Jobu sacrifice or anything.
Brian liked to a pretty good xkcd about Correlation and Causation awhile back. I think that's what you're confused about here.
Mary Sue Coleman better hire a sitting AD to replace Bill Martin. If she hires a CEO or money guy, the future of the football program could suffer as a result.
A CEO or money type would only think of ways to bring in $$ and that is a "right now" approach. A sitting AD would understand the dynamics of an athletic department and some times they run better when left to work out their own details.
Overall, I'm happy with Martin. He did finally get the right hoops coach. And, Tommy wasn't that bad, he just wasn't that good. But after Ellerbe, at least the program got decent and the scandals went away.
Martin also tried to get Schiano who I think would have been a great fit here. Hard to blame him for that one. The Lloyd-Les feud really prevented anything happening with my 1st choice. Not sure Bill wanted him anyway (he may want him now).
There are a lot of good AD's out there who would love a chance to manage here. Nor do I think they would fire RichRod before the next season. That gives the guy the 3 yrs he said that he needs.
Actually, we're 1-0 in dome games played in the state of NY. McNabb torched us in the Big House (I was there). We won an ugly game the next year at their place, 15-10.
However, I agree with the context of your post.
We are in a new realm here, one that, quite frankly I'm not sure we will see the fruit on the trees in the end. Hopefully, this ends up leading to lower expectations next year of we start out 4-1.
The significant thing to me is that we are headed toward 1-7 and 11th place in the Big 10. That is new to any one not born since the Ike administration.
I really want to believe that RR's coaching style is going to work in the big ten. But the big ten is power house football. when you look at the big east it is a smaller conference with more spread offenses.
Spread seems to work fine in the Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC, where teams like Florida, Texas Tech, and Oregon don't seem to have too much trouble scoring and winning. Good teams can run any offense they want, irrespective of the system. This offense still leads the Big 10 (last I checked) and that is with a freshman QB and injuries along the line.
was because of the offense.
The fun part will be when we finally turn the corner and begin winning B10 title after B10 title. All of these neg ballers will be jumping on the band wagon when the train rolls in to the station for a quick fill up. "I always knew Michigan would come back!", they will be claiming.
For those of us who are pushing the train to the top of the hill, hang on...it's going to be one hell of a fun ride.
I agree we need an ATHLETIC director. If enough patience is maintained by the execs at Michigan, William Martin will go down as one of the best AD's in Michigan history.
Go Blue. We believe in you coach Rod.
This has mostly been covered, but I really think that in the modern era the experience of Alvarez, Ferentz and Mason is heartening. Yes, we expect better in terms of B10 championships/BCS bowls, but Michigan has and should continue to recruit better than Iowa, Wisconsin or Minnesota. The fact that all of three of those coaches brought their programs to high levels (compared to those programs' histories) suggests that there is hope.
We were BAD last year. Can I get someone to agree? Thank You. We still managed to beat Wisconsin (their first loss). Can we do it again. Data, if I could cram it for you, would say NO. But, last year's data would lead to NO as well. So, how did we win? Well, it's like this.
IT JUST HAPPENED
That is why, as they say, we play the games.
BTW, who knows which OSU team will show up? I mean, it will be the rivalry game, but they are not consistent. Although "popular belief" is that we roll over and die the next 2 weeks, I want to see.....
IT JUST HAPPEN...TWICE