What Two Losing Seasons to Start a Tenure Means
Whether you think it likely or not based on this team's performance to date that we will lose at Camp Randall to Wisconsin and back home to OSU to finish 5-7 (after the last two weeks, it's hard to see any other outcome as more likely), this analysis ASSUMES THOSE LOSSES. I'm not pulling for those losses, but these stats/data points are designed to give color to where we'd be IF that comes.
Since 1900 (but not including this year), 47 coaches have begun their tenure with Big Ten teams with two losing seasons. Of those 47 coaches:
*5 (10.6%) have won even a single Big Ten title;
*5 (10.6%) have finished their tenure with even a winning record;
*2 (4.3%) have won at least one Big Ten title AND finished with a winning record; and
*0 have won national titles.
In chronological order, these coaches are:
-James M. "Jimmy" Phelan, Purdue (1922-1929) (32-22, no titles)
-Robert A. "Bob" Higgins, Penn State (1930-1948) (91-57-11, no titles, although PSU was playing a JV schedule at the time)
-John Pont, Indiana (1965-1972) (31-51, one Big Ten title)
-Hayden Fry, Iowa (1979-1998) (143-89, three Big Ten titles)
-Gary Barnett, Northwestern (1992-1998) (36-44-1, two Big Ten titles)
-Ron Turner, Illinois (1997-2004) (35-57, one Big Ten title)
-Glen Mason, Minnesota (1997-2006) (64-57, no titles)
-Kirk Ferentz, Iowa (1999-2008) (70-53, two Big Ten titles
17% of coaches who have begun with back-to-back losing seasons have attained EITHER a winning record in their tenure OR a conference championship. This data, to me, begs the following question: why does conventional wisdom still err toward giving these coaches more time? It appears to me that in a large number of cases, this poor of a start has doomed a coach more than it's been a precursor to a successful turnaround.
I understand that the change from Lloyd's offense to RichRod's is massive, there are plenty of explanations for the bad record, etc., etc., but just LOOK at that list. At this point, based on well over 1,000 seasons of Big Ten Football that have been played, history would indicate that the absolute BEST we could hope for would be three Big Ten titles in a 20 year span from a guy who got run out of town for losing (Fry). Ferentz may end up better than that, but I will also note another common theme - these coaches all came into situations in which the team was a losing team BEFORE they came. Michigan 2007 won the Capital One Bowl.
When RichRod was hired, if you'd been told the ceiling is a Big Ten Title once every five years, that a national title was out of the question, and that there's closer to a 90% chance that he wouldn't finish with a winning record or ever win a Big Ten Title at Michigan, would you back the hire?
My point isn't that we're screwed - it's that we're in truly uncharted territory if we're to stay optimistic here. Getting to where Michigan expects to be from where we're at right now just doesn't happen - once a coach starts this way, it changes the ceiling. Until this season Michigan and Ohio State were the only two schools to never have a coach begin his tenure with back-to-back losing seasons (PSU and MSU have each had it happen just once); here's hoping we stay on that list, and avoid adding to the already voluminous pile of "firsts" or "sinces" we've been attaining this year and last.
Go Blue, Beat Wisconsin and OSU!
First Two | Total # | Total | Total | Total | Conf. | ||
Team | Coach | Seasons | Seasons | Wins | Losses | Ties | Titles |
Illinois | Jim Valek | 1967-68 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Illinois | Bob Blackman | 1971-72 | 6 | 29 | 36 | 1 | 0 |
Illinois | Gary Moeller | 1977-78 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 0 |
Illinois | Ron Turner | 1997-98 | 8 | 35 | 57 | 0 | 1 |
Illinois | Ron Zook | 2005-06 | 4 | 35 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
Indiana | Harlan O. "Pat" Page | 1926-30 | 5 | 14 | 24 | 3 | 0 |
Indiana | Earle C. "Billy" Hayes | 1931-32 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 0 |
Indiana | Clyde B. Smith | 1948-49 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 0 |
Indiana | Bernie A. Crimmins | 1952-53 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Indiana | John Pont | 1965-66 | 8 | 31 | 51 | 1 | 1 |
Indiana | Lee Corso | 1973-74 | 10 | 41 | 68 | 2 | 0 |
Indiana | Bill Mallory | 1984-85 | 13 | 69 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
Indiana | Cam Cameron | 1997-98 | 5 | 18 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Indiana | Gerry DiNardo | 2002-03 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Iowa | Irl Tubbs | 1037-38 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 0 |
Iowa | Slip Madigan | 1943-44 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 0 |
Iowa | Leonard Raffensperger | 1950-51 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 0 |
Iowa | Ray Nagel | 1966-67 | 5 | 16 | 32 | 2 | 0 |
Iowa | Frank Lauterbur | 1971-72 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 0 |
Iowa | Bob Commings | 1974-75 | 5 | 17 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
Iowa | Hayden Fry | 1979-80 | 20 | 143 | 89 | 6 | 3 |
Iowa | Kirk Ferentz | 1999-00 | 10 | 70 | 53 | 0 | 2 |
Michigan State | Frank "Muddy" Waters | 1980-81 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Minnesota | Jim Wacker | 1992-93 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
Minnesota | Glen Mason | 1997-98 | 10 | 64 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
Northwestern | Charles E. Hammett | 1910-11 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
Northwestern | Fred J. Murphy | 1914-15 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 1 | 0 |
Northwestern | Elmer W. McDevitt | 1920-21 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Northwestern | Alex Agase | 1964-65 | 9 | 32 | 58 | 1 | 0 |
Northwestern | John Pont | 1973-74 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
Northwestern | Rick Venturi | 1978-79 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 0 |
Northwestern | Dennis Green | 1981-82 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
Northwestern | Francis Peay | 1986-87 | 6 | 13 | 51 | 2 | 0 |
Northwestern | Gary Barnett | 1992-93 | 7 | 36 | 44 | 1 | 2 |
Penn State | Robert A. "Bob" Higgins | 1930-31 | 19 | 91 | 57 | 11 | 0 |
Purdue | M. Frank "Bill" Horr | 1910-11 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
Purdue | Cleo A. O'Donnell | 1916-17 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
Purdue | James M. "Jimmy" Phelan | 1922-23 | 8 | 35 | 22 | 5 | 0 |
Purdue | Bob DeMoss | 1970-71 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Purdue | Alex Agase | 1973-74 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 1 | 0 |
Purdue | Leon Burtnett | 1982-83 | 5 | 21 | 34 | 1 | 0 |
Purdue | Fred Akers | 1987-88 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 1 | 0 |
Purdue | Jim Colletto | 1991-92 | 6 | 21 | 42 | 3 | 0 |
Wisconsin | John Coatta | 1967-68 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 0 |
Wisconsin | John Jardine | 1970-71 | 8 | 37 | 47 | 3 | 0 |
Wisconsin | Don Morton | 1987-88 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Wisconsin | Barry Alvarez | 1990-91 | 16 | 118 | 73 | 4 | 3 |
TOTALS | 252 | 1075 | 1481 | 68 | 11 |
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