Essentials

WHAT	Wisconsin at Michigan	well… crap
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	7:44 PM ET Saturday, November 14
THE LINE	Wisconsin –4.5 (Vegas) Wisconsin -10 (SP+)
TELEVISION	ABC PBP: Chris Fowler Analyst: Kirk Herbstreit Reporter: Maria Taylor
TICKETS	not this year
WEATHER	cloudy, mid-40s chance of light rain later 12 MPH wind

Overview

"FWD: I am back" –Wisconsin

Yeah so the Badgers didn't play their second and third games of the season because of a COVID outbreak and some undetermined but large number of guys will be out for this one. QB Graham Mertz was the first guy to test positive, which was on Saturday three weeks ago. (UW's opener was on a Friday.) Mertz may or may not be available depending on how we're defining 21 days. It seems like the Big Ten will not automatically disqualify him…

Wisconsin starting quarterback Graham Mertz remains "in the protocol" as he recovers from COVID-19, but could return for Saturday's game against Michigan.

Badgers offensive coordinator Joe Rudolph said Wednesday that Mertz's status depends on his preparation time this week and if he gets clearance from the team's sports medicine staff.

…and therefore I expect Wisconsin will play him, practice or not.

Anyone who tested positive after Mertz is certainly out. This will disqualify a fairly large chunk of the roster:

According to UW’s news releases on testing data, at least 10 players will be out for UW against Michigan as part of the 21-day timeline. There could be more due to contact tracing. Chryst said Monday he wasn’t sure of the exact number of players he’ll be missing due to the virus because some are still pending clearance that could come late this week.

A total of 17 Badgers tested positive over the duration so that "at least" could be a significant undershot. How important these folks are is unknown. We only know that Mertz and third-string QB Chase Wolf were positive. If Mertz was a significant infection vector the most likely guys to be out are the ones in close proximity to him: RB and OL.

I'm going to forge ahead as if UW starters are available because we have literally no information on the backups. Try to keep in mind that this exercise is useless.

[Hit THE JUMP for not quite the usual]

Run Offense vs Wisconsin

rare [Bryan Fuller]

We do not expect Ryan Hayes to play in this game, and Jalen Mayfield is also probably out. That would leave Michigan with the same line they had last week. This would not be good. Michigan has had two straight weeks of failure to ID blocks and things are not likely to improve significantly if a true freshman is still out there. Also, if you remember last year Michigan all but refused to run the ball in this game

At some level the opposition does not matter if Michigan is going to run a spread attack that has one running back, one tight end, and zero QB run threat. +1 in the box is +1 in the box, and Michigan will suffer. If someone slaps the offensive coaching staff back into a semblance of sense and Milton is re-activated as a runner and—more importantly—an option threat then there is some possibility of success.

There is, of course, an opposition. Seth's FFFF on the Wisconsin front three:

Michigan's struggles to find a good nose tackle aren't made any easier to stomach that Wisconsin unearthed a local 3* in NT #95 Keeanu Benton (+9/-2.5) last year. He can two-gap and keep his linebackers clean, and did all that damage in about 20 snaps because they lift him on passing downs (there were many). It's also troubling that they can get another year of eligibility for the stout senior ends, SDE/5T #97 Isaiahh Loudermilk (+11.5/-3), and WDE/3T #93 Garrett Rand (+8/-1.5), who's been around so long that he played in the Grant Newsome game.

I'd have some optimism that Michigan could move these guys out if the starting line was intact since Michigan played a quality DL in the MSU game and struggled largely because of mental issues from Ben Mason and pullers, but the line shuffle significantly dents that.

Like many things about Wisconsin, their LB group is a rotating series of names with little difference in performance. Jack Sanborn is the guy most likely to put his facemask in a running back in the backfield:

The guy you're going to notice the most is the WLB, Jack Sanborn. He doesn't stay blocked and has that traditional annoying Wisconsin linebacker knifing-under-your-run-game quality that their cloners copyrighted a decade ago.

You'd think Michigan will block up a few runs correctly and do at least a little something to get out of this terrible slump, especially if Milton is a real option again. A series of TFLs and grinds into the line will still result in a lot of third and longs; the hope is that Michigan can rip off a few chunks to take some burden off of Milton's arm. Yes, even if they're coming from Milton's legs.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN OFFENSIVE BRAINTRUST vs WHAT ARE YOU DOING. You're running a no-read spread offense in 2020!

Pass Offense vs Wisconsin

everyone's complaining [Patrick Barron]

This could go fine if Michigan can protect. Joe Milton is up and down but largely up, and Wisconsin's defensive backs are somewhat questionable. Seth:

The three cornerbacks rotate though they favor keeping field CB #5 Rachad Wildgoose (+3/-2, +3/-2 cov). Wildgoose is a good ol' grabby hoody Wisconsin CB who did keep with Josh Imatorbhebhe. … Caesar Williams (+1/-2, +0/-2) didn't impress me as much this year as the last time I watched him … He rotates evenly with CB #1 Faion Hicks (+0/-1, +0/-2cov)…. Hicks would have fit right in Ann Arbor, IE he's slow and grabby.

Wisconsin locked up Megatron-style Illinois receiver Josh Imhatorbebe but Michigan's guys provide a different kind of challenge. Wildgoose is a guy who flashed early in his career and should be on a steady improvement track.

Unfortunately, protection is likely to be dodgy. Last year's line had their worst pass pro performance in this game last year, with a total of 22 negatives en route to a 69% performance. Now all those guys are gone unless Mayfield makes it back in; Wisconsin is mostly back. The Badgers had three sacks on just 22 Illinois attempts in their sole game so far. Jim Leonhard's 3-4 sends guys from a lot of spots, and Michigan is having major issues picking up stunts.

The best way to avoid this is to dump out a bunch of screens to fast guys and constantly threaten QB run that turns into play action—Denard it up—and maybe last week will be a come to Jesus moment. It's tough to have faith in that in year six, with a steady diet of gameplans that seem like Harbaugh yanking back the controller from Gattis.

Milton has been able to move around in the pocket to buy time; his massive arm allows him to drift backwards or throw off-platform with little issue. That's going to have to be the case against the Badgers, with results similar to those from the Indiana game: promise. Hole shots. Too much inconsistency to score a bunch when he's not getting any help from the ground game.

KEY MATCHUP: JOE MILTON vs EVERYBODY. If Michigan wins this game it's probably because Milton won it. Not likely. Vaguely possible.

Run Defense vs Wisconsin

Obligatory Wisconsin OL shot [Bryan Fuller]

This did not go well against Illinois. The Badgers had a long run of 13 yards and the two guys who might could replace Jonathan Taylor, Nakia Watson and Isaac Guerendo, averaged 3.3 YPC on 30 carries. Former third-down back Garrett Groshek had more success with 70 yards on 13 carries, but anyone who breathed a sigh of relief in last year's game when Groshek came in knows that the gap between Groshek and Taylor is large.

The OL, though, is the usual. Seth:

Left tackle #71 Cole Van Lanen (+14.5/-5, –0 pass pro) could have been in the NFL this year instead of prompting announcers to deploy their many prepared facts about Wisconsin OL in the NFL during clock kill hour. Much of that NFL donation came from last year's interior line but they shored up much of it by convincing RG #67 Jon Dietzen (+10/-3, –2 pass pro) to come out of retirement. Opposite him, LG #70 Josh Seltzner (+15/-10, –0 pass pro) is your standard big slab of Wisconsin beef. He can be dodged, but UW got a lot of yards by having him grind down Carlo Kemp last year. Onetime emergency DE #76 Kayden Lyles (+6/-0) has moved into the spot vacated by star pro rookie Tyler Biadasz and was solid; moreover Wisconsin never missed a blitz assignment.

Michigan's DTs have been all right against two of the worst OLs in the conference the last two weeks. This will be an entirely different test. Or it might not be if some of these guys are out.

The late stages of the Indiana game were not encouraging for Michigan in this regard. On short yardage doubles on Kemp still blew him up, and the absence of Aidan Hutchinson was felt keenly. A 10-play, 20-yard four-minute drill to close things out suggests that the seeming progress of the DTs is more about the opponent than Michigan itself—remember all those duo runs by Minnesota that Michigan had trouble stopping.

I don't expect a paving like last year because of Wisconsin's major downgrade at running back, but neither am I expecting Michigan to match what Illinois did.

KEY MATCHUP: WISCONSIN vs COVID. As mentioned above the most likely infectees are RB and OL.

Pass Defense vs Wisconsin

Maham Grertz imo

Graham Mertz did this in his sole start:

Graham Mertz is the 3rd FBS player over the last 25 seasons with 5 pass TD and a 95% completion pct in a game over the last 25 seasons. He joins Gunner Kiel and Matt Barkley.

Mertz finished 20-21 (95.2%), breaking the Wisconsin comp pct record (min. 10 attempts). pic.twitter.com/qIaXmVMksG

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 24, 2020

This is obviously ominous. Gone are the days when Michigan could point at Illinois and say "they're nothing like us." Michigan is now tweet-bros with Illinois.

least efficient P5 schools at covering outside receivers
- illinois
- michigan
- virginia
- texas am

— seth galina (@pff_seth) November 13, 2020

Michigan's been shredded by teams with very little run game. The prospect of trying to keep up with the Wisconsin OL on the ground and also get back into position on play action makes one want to think about basketball recruiting. [thinks about basketball recruiting]

Anyway. Tight end Jake Ferguson was Mertz's main target with seven catches for 72 yards; WRs Danny Davis III and Kendrick Pryor had five between them. Davis and Pryor are pretty similar, shortish outside WRs with limited production entering this year. Neither is likely to be drafted. Both are good enough to give Michigan CBs the business. You may remember Davis catching a slot fade against Jaylen Kelly-Powell that went for 80-ish yards because Kelly-Powell was in the Gray-vs-MSU area. They've also got a slot receiver named Jack Dunn in the tiny-but-effective-walk-on mold.

Michigan is down Aidan Hutchinson and comes up against an offensive line that is far less likely to get dunked on by Kwity Paye on every play, so… this is not going to go well. Unless we get Danny Vanden Boom, which could be a thing.

KEY MATCHUP: GRAHAM MERTZ vs THE HAGUE. War crimes are on the table.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker Collin Larsh was not good a year ago, hitting 12/18 and finishing 100th in field goal efficiency. He hit his only field goal against Illinois, a 19-yarder. Punter Andy Vujnovich is new. He averaged 46 yards an attempt on four punts against Illinois.

Dunn returned most of the punts last year, averaging 8 yards a return, but the only attempt against Illinois came from Danny Davis. Davis had six attempts last year. Neither guy is dynamic. Freshman WR Stephan Bracey had two unremarkable kick returns.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

 

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Michigan's DTs revert back to last year's pumpkin form.
• Paye is relatively neutralized.
• Mertz plays.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• The entire starting Wisconsin OL is out? Which is possible!
• Joe Milton can put the team on his back.
• Chet Holmgren loved Ann Arbor so much he decides to join the #1 class in America.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 7 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Oh No We Suck Again, –1 for More Than Ten Badgers Out, +1 for RIP Aidan, +1 for Accurate QB Against Michigan Corners, +1 for Teamwide Chaos Indicative Of Diseased Program That Is Unlikely To Up And Stop Doing Things Like Jump Offsides Five Times In A Game, –1 for Milton's Going To Win One Game Out Of His Butt, –1 for Likelihood That Absent Badgers Were Breathed Upon By Mertz Means OL Out, +1 for Hard DT Reversion Likely, +1 for We Mocked The Turtle Out Of Paul Chryst)

Desperate need to win level: 3 (Baseline: 5; –1 for LPONE zone, –1 for I Mean If It's Over It's Best If It's Really Clear That It's Over, +1 for Win One For Paye Or Something, +1 for It Would Be Funny If The Worst Michigan Teams Consistently Beat Wisconsin On Some Bullshit, –1 for Hockey Season Also Starts Saturday, –1 for Strong COVID Farce Game possibility)

Loss will cause me to…  expound at length about what happens when Frankie Collins gets to winning time.

Win will cause me to…  consider re-engaging emotionally like kombucha girl.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Nope! Not predicting the outcome of a game where 10-16 random opposition players are out. Except in the next section.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow:

• Michigan's cornerbacks look tolerable.
• The defensive tackles get a harsh wake-up call.
• Wisconsin, 32-25