As is tradition Brian gets the first week off from previewing because [gestures at a legit novel's worth of content this week]. See you tonight at the Bo Store.

Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs MTSU
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	7:30 PM
THE LINE	Michigan –34.5
TELEVISION	BTN
TICKETS	I have a couple extra. Come find me.
WEATHER	Mostly cloudy, falling from 70 to low 60s with a 50 percent chance of some rain. East winds 5-8 mph.

Overview

Michigan's 2019 opener is the football equivalent of a 2- versus 15-seed. Michigan is a title aspirant in the toughest bracket, already looking forward to the weird exotic in the next round and a notorious big bad between them and the Final Four. MTSU is a mid-major that's been punching over its weight thanks to a good coach in Rick Stockstill who won't leave for anything short of entropy. We're catching them at the nadir of some long-coming offensive line issues, and right after a four-year run with Stockstill's son at quarterback when they geared the entire offense around him.

This new not-Stockstill inherits a superior slot bug and several more reasons to get the ball out as fast as humanly possible. The defense is decidedly mid-major: Old friend Scott Shafer is running his old 4-3 stuff with guys 30-50 pounds lighter than he used to. They have a couple of safeties who managed to miss their few outings against Power 5 receivers but should at least keep gains to a minimum and Michigan's inevitable trips to the end zone workmanlike.

Credit is due to Warde or whomever scheduled this. As far as openers go, give me a very, very poor man's Ohio State, day or night. Catching them immediately after they've been evicted from the House Of Not-Terrible is a lucky bonus. The $1.6 million payout sounds like a lot, but well worth a matchup with a school not known for monumental, hilarious upsets of Big Ten schools.

[Hit THE JUMP for an FFFF chart and the preview]

Run Offense vs MTSU

No previous games means no Foe Film but you deserve a chart. Click for big.

Rich Rod's first defensive coordinator at Michigan was an odd pick to be 2008's fall guy, but was also the most likely to land on his feet. Scott Shafer's came down in Syracuse, trotting from there to a head coaching shot, which went badly enough to land him in Murfreesboro in 2017. The reclamation project is now in Year Three, and most of the pieces he found to work with are third-year starters or those who usurped them.

Shafer means a blitzy 4-3, but his Conf-USA parts are all small even by Conf-USA standards. Returning DT Malik Manciel is now listed at 6'2/250, with his coaches giving "now up to 265" in the latest practice reports. He's a willing plugger and built low, but physics is physics:

The nose tackles, a rotation of Rakavian Poydras and Jordan Ferguson, are just 283 and 272 respectively. Returning WDE Trae Philpots, and SDE Tyshun Render, who was the pass-rushier man in a heavy rotation, are both 10-20 pounds lighter than they'd like.

Shafer makes up for this by getting blitzy with safety-sized linebackers, resulting in a lot of TFLs and a lot of gashes. WLB Khalil Brooks is listed at 5'11/206 (!!!) but had 13.5 TFLs and a healthy 6.5 sacks. SLB DQ Thomas is barely larger—6'2/214—but matched Brooks in TFLs plus half a sack. Brooks reminds me a lot of former MSU SLB Denicos Allen; Thomas tends to overrun plays too much. Last year's middle linebacker kept this all together; he's now hanging onto the end of an NFL roster. The new MLB Cody Smith is a 6'2/214 sophomore who won a battle with their 2017 starting SLB Chris Melton, 6'1/212.

When jumping gaps and flinging speed into unexpected places goes awry the safeties tend to keep the damage to 10 yards or so. Reed Blankenship didn't play against Georgia last year and didn't start until Game 4, but led the team with 89 tackles (plus 8 TFLs, 4 INTs, and 7 PBUs). He'll again be flanked by Jovante Moffatt, a longtime starter who strategically played in just four games last year to preserve a redshirt and two surgery-requiring shoulders. He and Blankenship started in 2017 together and were and 1st and 4th in team tackles then as well. Both safeties are going to be heavily involved in run fits and Blankenship in particular looks like a guy on his way to doing so professionally.

I know we want to take the new Gattis offense out of the garage but this would be a good week to bring the Backside of Power stuff off the shelf and get pushy. Georgia put up 9.17 YPC on these guys last year, a lot of it off zone cutbacks when they caught a slant and took it for a ride. The nature of this style of defense leads to a lot of rock-paper-scissors TFLs, however with those small DL there's usually somewhere to burrow a defensive RPS win into two yards. The corollary is they're also liable to get gashed. Michigan's combination of size and experience on the OL should make this a blowout, and the high likelihood of meeting a sub-215-pound tackler should make Zach Charbonnet Hour worth staying up for.

KEY MATCHUP: LATCHING ON versus FIND THE SQUIRREL. There's something poetic about Scott Shafer running his 4-3 with a 3-3-5 mentality. None of these matchups will go well if a Michigan lineman or tight end makes solid contact—both of my children and all of their accompanying travel accessories weigh less than the difference between Onwenu and the DT across from him.

ALSO KEY MATCHUP: HARBAUGH versus LET ME GO GET THE TRACTOR. It's going to be rough for Harbaugh and the Little Bo Schembechler on his shoulder watching Gattis pilot his spread weapons around a front that practically cries out to be plowed. UAB plowed them last year and they didn't have a football program in 2015. You can run into MTSU for four quarters and go to bed if you like, but the whole point of playing these guys is #SpeedInSpace needs to work in the engine.

Pass Offense vs MTSU

500! [Bryan Fuller]

The blitzball linebacking that characterizes their run defense resulted in a top-25 defense in LB havoc and a very fancy #6 in passing down sack rate. That looks weird next to the 124th (!) third-and-long success rate.

But it makes perfect sense with the personnel. They can shoot little LBs into the backfield all day, but what they can't do is push defensive linemen into the pocket against anyone except UAB (9 sacks in 2 games). Philpots had just 4 sacks last year, Render 2.5, Manciel 2, and if you keep it only to opponents playing FBS in 2015, their entire DL had two. The occasional 3-man rush is just embarrassing.

While I already mentioned Blankenship for his run defense, what makes him so important to this defense is he can do that while staying back, often attacking the spot the blitz just came from. Last year's final free safety, Wesley Bush, and his six picks and 55 tackles are gone, but Moffatt's return makes that a wash—he had five PBUs in those ~3.2 games.

On passing downs they go to a 3- or even 2-DL line and send linebacker-shaped safeties and safety-shaped linebackers at you from all directions, playing either pure man or a Cov 1 shell behind it.

The one to watch out for is that Denicos Allen character, the 5'11"/200 WLB, Khalil Brooks, who had 14 QB hurries last year as well as six PBUs.

Like the offense, the defense leaned a lot last year on longtime starters who've now graduated, along with their position coach. The first new starter elevated was tough nugget CB Greg Grate Jr., a former slot receiver who was roped into safety and nickel duties last year—it went not great (#3 the safety who busted so badly that a bad throw from Justin Fields was still a long completion). The projected winner from fall camp for the the job opposite Grate appears to be redshirt freshman Teldrick Ross, who was a quarterback until a year ago. Expect his competition, 6'1 redshirt junior Justin Brown, to bounce Grate or Ross back to nickel on passing downs. They're all rather untested as cornerbacks, and liable to screw something up.

This seems to be an opportune time to show what we've learned over the offseason about the bomb. Michigan has a fleet of battle-tested mutants with NFL speed or better, and a new OC/receivers coach who was part of Deep State and the Tua offenses. Get rid of the safeties with run action and let 'er rip.

KEY MATCHUP: SHEA PATTERSON vs THROW IT ON TIME. Patterson struggled last year with zone defenses, either from bugging out of a clean pocket too early or throwing the right pass too late. Play-action against this team should suck down the safeties and expose the biggest talent differential on the schedule.

Run Defense vs MTSU

It's a Kemp kind of day [Bryan Fuller]

Remember Maryland's offense last year? Jet-happy? Could line up under center with a wingback or spread 4-wide with the same personnel? Picture that with some tempo and it's a close facsimile of the last Stockstill offense. They don't bother with tight ends, preferring to flood the field with backs and spread H-backs and slot-sized wide receivers, then run a lot of jet motion and pullers.

Mr. Inside is sophomore I-back Chaton Mobley (5.37 YPC), who looks so much like an inside linebacker that 24/7 ranked him as one. Mobley supplanted an entrenched senior as a true freshman and led the sideshow to Stockstill dinks that was MTSU rushing attack. With that senior gone the next-largest RB on the depth chart is 198 and notable for earning "Most Improved Running Back" three years in a row without getting more than 20 touches (or 2.5 yards per touch).

Mr. Outside could be one of many bugs. Brad Anderson (5'8"/175) was putting together a fine highlight reel as a slot receiver before losing the season to injury right after passing the medshirt line. Tiny-tiny sophomore Zach Dobson (5'8"/164) had 196 yards on just 20 carries, most of those jets. The pair has now pushed former wingback Terelle West to Mobley's backup.

The quarterbacks will be heavily involved in the run game, and that will only be more true without Stockstill. They'll go five wide and QB draw, and run some zone read and pure QB power and counter runs with the I-back as lead blocker.

The Blue Raiders lost most of their running game when stalwart guard Chandler Brewer and their other two decent linemen graduated. The two they got back were the weak points of last year's offense. I gave the 6'2" blindside (Stockstill was a lefty) OT a cyan for mostly pass pro issues but the center, senior Josh Fannin, tended to find himself deposited in his quarterback's lap on the regular. That's not too surprising given he's listed at 281 after five years in the program. The rest of the OL are new starters and a guess based on the latest practice reports. Robert Jones stands out if only because he's got 5 inches and 80 pounds on the other guys. Tellingly, 6'2"/275 redshirt junior Will Gillchrist apparently won left tackle job before the returning starter, afore mentioned 6'2"/305 Amir Luckett, re-secured his. I have now revised my thoughts on bad tackle situations.

Michigan is breaking in one or two new linebackers, and has much to discover about a very different-looking defensive line. Last year's group wasn't even a little fooled by Matt Canada's games and a lot of Stockstill's you can see coming from a mile away. Mike Danna was PFF's 1st team All-American DE last year because he got to feast on OTs only marginally better than MTSU's. There may be some growing pains, and senior Stockstill will provide minimal opportunities for this to happen if he can, but if Michigan isn't dominating their physical battles against the Blue Raiders' line we're in for a long season.

KEY MATCHUP: NEW GUYS vs. NOT BEING CHASE WINOVICH OR DEVIN BUSH. The Maryland offense last year was cracking defenses all the time with their speedy wonderbacks because all those jets and pulls provide that many opportunities to screw up. Michigan…didn't screw up. Let's see how their heirs handle it.

Pass Defense vs MTSU

If you thought Jonathan Taylor was tough to Google Image Search there are like six pages of manga and cosplay to get to one of MTSU's top receiver [Fuller]

Another year, another mid-major comes to Michigan with a slot and not much else.

Longtime OC Tony Franklin spent the last four years starting coach's son Brent Stockstill, who wasn't much of an NFL prospect, but got the ball out quickly and accurately. Stockstill's stats last year are boggling: 3544 yards, 70% completion rating, 29 TDs to 10 INTs, 150.7 rating, He was also their second-leading ballcarrier—MTSU's QB run rate (% of non-sack rushes by QBs, courtesy of The Mathlete) was 26th last year, two spots behind triple-option outfit Army. Also they were 114th in standard down run rate. In other words they passed a lot, and when they ran it was more likely than most teams to be the quarterback. Also all that passing was about mitigating an offensive line with one guy marginally more effective than a recycling bin.

Maybe it was a bad time to leave.

In his place is a quarterback battle that seems to be barreling toward its worst case scenario. The best case scenario was for 6'5"/235 JuCo transfer Randall Johnson, the 2018 Golden Coast Conference player of the year, to arrive and win the job and for one of the redshirt freshmen to emerge as a proper heir apparent. As of yesterday, JuCo-Jo had fallen out of the running and the QB battle was down to last year's backup Asher O'Hara, and 5'11"/188 Chase Cunningham, neither of whom made the 24/7 database in high school. O'Hara had a 65% completion rating over 214 passes for the College of DuPage in 2017 before transferring as a sophomore and taking a play-four redshirt last year.

This site think's he's the guy. O'Hara might be in Stockstill's class as a runner (a 6 on our Navarre—>Denard scale) but his one extended outing against FIU last year was ugly: 9/20 for 114 yards, an INT and 4 sacks. When his first read's open he delivers it accurately, but there's a bit of a Sheridan-Bellomy float going on:

They clearly weren't confident in O'Hara because they recruited Johnson, but I should note all of these guys are ahead of four more scholarship QBs and two more were moved this year to WR and RB. Stockstill was preparing for life after Stockstill; sometimes you just miss.

We should talk about that slot you just watched in the clip above. Ty Lee is 5'9"/178 and walking out of Murfreesboro with every receiving record in MTSU, if not Conf-USA, history. He's not particularly fast, but he's just crazy elusive.

This was a dink-and-dunk passing spread geared toward getting the ball out as quickly as possible, and when they went to do that, Lee was reliably open and reliably generated YAC. He's got routes, and his routes have routes, and those routes have exquisite Limoges patterns. Lee's special talent is catching the ball with his body already moving into a running position—if you're not there on the catch you're late. For a more traditional scatback they have Brad Anderson, who officially moved to that jet-back role that's more or less a second slot.

MTSU ran a lot of America's Rollout Out last year with the bare minimum pass pro:

They can't pass block; all numeric evidence to the contrary is a falsehood perpetuated by spreading it out and giving Brent Stockstill places to put the ball before the rush comes. The chopping above was not an isolated incident. Given Army's next I'm suddenly nervous about the knees of our linemen making it to Wisconsin, let alone the shock that awaits them there.

Targets to actual receivers are rare—they got about as many as DPJ/Collins did—and the recipients have to be replaced, but they may have a few up-and-comers. CJ Windham was off to a hot start (though most of his yards were on one big defensive bust) before losing last year to injury. Junior Jimmy Marshall is a 6'5"/215 guy who gets mentioned for his height and hands in roundups. Ty Lee will serve outside sometimes, as will former Tennessee Volunteer Jocquez Bruce, a good route runner whose athleticism has been leaking out over an injury-riddled career.

It may not be great practice, but Michigan ought to stick Hill on Lee and trust the safeties to flag down the other jets. But they won't so…

KEY MATCHUP: NOT LAVERT HILL vs #SPEEDINSPACE. Also DL knees versus our need for them over the season. This game will have more quick screens to little wiggly people than we've seen since the annoying Cincy game a few years ago. If MTSU can pass block longer than that, Michigan's pass rush is in pull-collar territory. MTSU was 118th in 3rd and long success rate last year. Factor in all those new starters, and third and long should be a slaughter.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Junior kicker Crews Holt…

…was automatic from inside 40 and just 1/7 outside of that—the one I saw was a duck that crashed short of the sticks and would have been returnable; might be worth leaving a guy back if they try it. Punter was a competition that the MTSU SID apparently thought was as fascinating as the QB battle for all they covered it this offseason, but the backup from last year seems to have won it. They use a modern shield punt, and based on one clip of this punter's long windup I think Michigan might block one. Stockstill punted against Georgia on 4th and 1 from the MTSU 45. He also went for it on 4th and 9 from the Georgia 45. Ty Lee is the returner.

KEY MATCHUP: AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS NOT YOU CREWS HOLT! CREWS HOLT!

INTANGIBLES

​

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Michigan's Cover 1 is getting chewed up by tunnel screens.
• The DL isn't consistently murdering this OL.
• Gattis is getting worked by Shafer in RPS.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• One of their safeties misses a tackle.
• A Michigan receiver catches single coverage downfield.
• The starters are all on the sideline before 9 PM.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 1 (Baseline: 5; -1 for mid-major-sized mid-major, -1 for seriously they're throwing a 250-pound tackle in the way of Michael Onwenu, -1 for and their linebackers are all safeties, -1 for breaking in a new quarterback in a quarterback is everything offense, -1 their center is 280 and their tackle is 6'2" and those are the only returning starters, +1 for Scott Shafer was done dirty and probably blames Michigan)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; -1 for not a league game, +1 for but it's certainly a local one, +5 for don't ruin this.)

Loss will cause me to…

Win will cause me to… Shake the hand of someone leaving and share a fond memory about Giddy Potts.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Last year MTSU had the ability to be annoying but not much more. Rick Stockstill is a good coach and should have them in contention once again in the C-USA Legends or Whatever Division despite all that roster turnover. Ty Lee will get open some. They'll crack some runs here and there because it's hard to stay disciplined against all those moving parts. Eventually one or two of the redshirt freshmen OL should emerge over various spare parts that happen to know how to football already.

But look again at the defense, and know that even Stockstill thinks they're going to have to carry the team while the offense moves past nametags and icebreakers. The new quarterback is a guy they clearly wanted to replace or the guy who clearly struggled to do that. Their offensive line could be among the worst in the country. Their defensive success is all about flinging small dudes into gaps and—I know, I know, it's Gattis's offense you guys but—Harbaugh's still in the room and has been consistently successful against this style by adding and shifting gaps all over the place. If this game's a struggle, every game will be. It shouldn't be.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Michigan runs more RPOs than they did all of last year (three).
• Zach Charbonnet is the third Michigan running back to enter the game and averages 9 YPC.
• Michigan, 45-11