Essentials

WHAT	#4 Michigan (5-0) vs Indiana(3-2)
WHERE	Memorial Stadium Bloomington, IN
WHEN	Noon Eastern
THE LINE	M –22.5
TELEVISION	FOX (Johnson/Klatt)
TICKETS	From $69.
WEATHER	Sunny, high 50s 0% chance of rain nominal wind

Overview

Indiana was ranked 17th in last year's preseason poll. Since then, woe and disaster. Any level of expectation placed upon Hoosier football evidently induces Mel-Tucker-level flop sweat. This year's edition of the Hoosiers superficially has the same record as the Iowa team Michigan just played but there is a vast gap in projected ability. Iowa is hovering just outside the top 29 in SP+; Indiana is 83rd.

To get a ranking like that with a record like that you have to get stomped by decent teams (Cincinnati), lose to bad teams (Nebraska), and squeeze by dubious teams (WKU and especially Idaho). Also your one good win (Illinois) has to be a statistical fluke against a team that is still getting dogged by preseason expectation is ranking systems like SP+.

Run Offense vs Indiana

Different logo on helmet but same result? [Barron]

On the one hand, Indiana gave up identical 216-yard days to Illinois and Western Kentucky—and that latter team is infamously the most pass-happy in the nation. On the other, the Hoosiers are coming off veritable stompings of Cincinnati (30 carries, 40 yards) and Nebraska (51 carries, 115 yards). Things do look a little different if you correct for a whopping 48 sack yards against the Huskers. You get to 3.5 YPC, but even this is entirely respectable.

This might be another spot in which Michigan dumps all the tight ends on the field. Alex on Indiana's general configuration:

Dasan McCullough plays a lot as the fifth lineman when Indiana goes 5-2-4 (often on running downs). UCLA transfer Myles Jackson is the nominal reserve at these positions. … The interior of the DL sees DeMarcus Elliott return. I was not a fan of his last season and thought his tape this year was better, but we opted to keep the cyan on him. Weston Kramer exits from the program and is replaced by Sio Nofoagatoto'a, who was rotating in with Elliott last season. They don't get any passrush from these positions, but Nofoagatoto'a did okay at not budging. JH Tevis gets a lot of snaps to the point he's basically a starter, rotating in on many passing downs.

McCullough is a 6'5" 225 pound true freshman who looks like fresh meat to the ravenous Michigan TE corps. On the other hand, Tevis is a 282-pound fifth-year senior who transferred from Cal, where he was a full-time starter. You'd think he'd be the main option if Michigan went heavy but we haven't seen Indiana go with that yet. Michigan will probably offer up a few 3TE sets early to see what the response is and if it's any good and then go from there.

Another reason to maybe explore the tight ends are those DTs. Indiana is running out dual Bryan Mones, more or less. Michigan was able to crease but not crack Iowa's DL, and these guys are bigger and less thunkable. Also Indiana will not be so content to leave two deep safeties back. With young, light, and/or dubious players on the edge adding gaps and going off tackle is an avenue to explore.

Meanwhile in linebackers Alex would like to throw into a lake:

Tackling at the LB level was very poor. I mentioned that it was the weak spot of Jones' game but it was a disaster for the other starter, Aaron Casey. The tackling on this next clip is extremely poor all around, starting with Casey:

… Despite general competency in run defense, I did get the sense that when Michigan loads up the TEs and goes with their meat packages, they should be able to slam away at Indiana, like they did Maryland.

Great, or at least tolerable, minds.

KEY MATCHUP: EDWARDS/CORUM vs LAST GUYS. Michigan has not had many long touchdowns this year, probably because of opponent conservatism and blind luck. With some iffy tacking in the back seven this could be an opportunity to pad those YPC numbers.

Pass Offense vs Indiana

this is against DPJ(!) [Barron]

On one level this should be the strength of the team. Taiwan Mullen is still around, and Jaylin Williams made PFF's preseason All Big Ten team as an honorable mention. As far as Indiana position groups go, that's a winner. And yet:

	Name	Pct.	Yards	Yards/Att	TD	Int	Rating
1	Iowa	57.8	808	4.9	3	5	98.65
2	Illinois	43.7	795	5	2	8	79.99
3	Minnesota	57.6	703	5.1	3	6	98.53
4	Michigan	54.4	789	5.4	4	3	104.4
5	Penn State	49.6	1310	5.8	5	5	101.13
6	Maryland	56.9	1262	6	9	2	119.28
7	Ohio State	56.5	767	6.2	4	3	114.21
8	Nebraska	62.9	1345	6.6	8	3	127.99
9	Rutgers	58	933	6.8	7	6	122.8
10	Purdue	51.9	1070	6.9	10	7	122.65
11	Wisconsin	58.6	958	7.2	6	8	122.02
12	Northwestern	56.3	1058	7.5	7	5	128.16
13	Michigan State	67.4	1375	7.7	8	0	147.14
14	Indiana	63.7	1389	8.1	13	4	152.38

Indiana is dead last in the Big Ten in YPA allowed and passer rating allowed. They are almost a half-yard back of Michigan State. They gave up 8.9 yards an attempt to Idaho. They gave up 8.9 to Cincinnati. And they gave up 10.0 to Nebraska. This is a full-on tire fire, and also Williams might be out for this game after suffering a shoulder injury against the Cornhuskers.

Alex took in the Nebraska game and will now attempt to relate how the hell one gives up 10 YPA to the battered husk of Nebraska football. Folks, it's depressing:

The very next play resulted in a TD when Thompson, again with all day to throw against a four man rush, found Old Friend Oliver Martin toasting Tiawan Mullen down the sideline:

That play in particular caught my eye and was the most concerning development. Mullen had impeccable stud credentials as a lock down corner through two seasons at Indiana, projected to be the best corner in the conference entering last season, but his junior year encountered the injury bug. He opted to return to school and so far it is not going well. Over the past two weeks, Mullen has been targeted 12 times in coverage, allowing 9 completions for 178 yards and 3 TDs. He's already allowed nearly as many receptions in 25 targets as he did in 2019 in 40 targets. Mullen has allowed as many TDs through 5/12ths of a season as he did in 2019 and 2020 combined.

Mullen is apparently the Michael Penix of the defense, except he's still in Bloomington.

Also obliquely referenced in the blockquote above is the Indiana pass rush, which is nominally much improved from last year's—Indiana has 14 sacks on the season after gathering just 17 all of last year—but utterly dependent on blitzing. If you file McCullough as an OLB, Indiana DL have 1.5 of those 14 sacks. DB Noah Pierre has double that himself. So Indiana has been faced with a choice: give opposing QBs all day to go up against not-good-enough-anymore CBs or blitz and expose your coverage to the potential for big plays.

McCullough, though, is a potential issue. He's got four sacks on the year despite operating as a part-time player and is the one guy who has the potential to slash through a gap or win around the outside. He shows up on passing downs, which are the same downs on which Allen's creative blitz packages have the most time to get home. And you can see that impact in the FO stats. Indiana jumps from 76th to 14th in sack rate when the downs get late and long. Michigan will want to take early shots against a defense that apparently can defend one thing at a time… but only one.

One Michigan note: Roman Wilson may miss this game after taking a shot to the head against Iowa.

KEY MATCHUP: JJ MCCARTHY vs SHOTS SHOTS SHOTS SHOTS. Calibrate the deep ball again and we're pretty much there.

Run Defense vs Indiana

this near the LOS [Barron]

Indiana cannot run the ball at all. In their three games against FBS-quality opposition (Cinci counts) they've blatted out 32, 68, and 67 yards at 1.2, 1.8, and 2.9 yards a pop. There are some sack yards in there but primary back Shaun Shivers is averaging 3 YPC in those games, and running the ball about 14 times per contest. Even with the element of surprise—the Hoosiers are averaging 57 passes per game(!) against FBS comp—Indiana's ground game is getting stuffed in a sack.

This is largely because their offensive line is a mess. A season-ending injury to Matt Bedford has forced Parker Hannah into the starting lineup. Hannah is a Texas A&M transf—

what?

oh.

Hannah is a West Texas A&M transfer. As in the D-II school, he said as if anyone heard the words "West Texas A&M" and thought to themselves "oh, the D-II school."  On the bright side for the Hoosiers he was Honorable Mention All Lone Star Conference a year ago. On the less bright side, Indiana is now starting an OL who used to play in a conference named for a Spaceballs character. Hannah's ascension means two things: one is that you've got a D-II player in D-I. The second is that the floor for everyone else in the starting lineup is "marginally better than a D-II transfer."

Given the nature of the offense, which is all screens all the time and a desperate need to avoid running the ball, it is likely the floor is pretty close to the reality. Football Outsiders has line stats up for 2022 now and uh yup. I'm not going to bother with enumerating the stats, I'm just going to give ranks for obvious reasons: 128, 116, 128, 116, 87, 126. Horrible. HORRIBLE.

This is going to be a sidelight that mostly hinges on whether Michigan manages to crack and give up one (1) chunk run. Everything else is getting between 3 and 0 yards.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN vs TEMPO. These bastards are back to the #chaosteam style of offense, with all the plays in rapid succession in the vague hope that'll confuse the defense. Michigan has never been good at this under Harbaugh and had some scuffles in the first quarter when Maryland was going at jet tempo. This will be a major test for Minter's ability to get them lined up with good auto-checks.

Pass Defense vs Indiana

different guy throwing to same location [Barron]

I hope you like screens. Wide receiver screens? Running back screens? Yes. But I can't use the Why Not Both gif because we can't forget about tight end screens. If Walt Bell can figure one out I guarantee you he will innovate the quarterback screen*. It's my turn to cackle about UFR responsibilities. Yeah, Seth was watching Iowa run six plays in 20 minutes of football last week, but now he has to break down 74 different screen variations on 10 play drives that go about 30 yards. Checkmate, fool.

Uh… right. I was saying things.

Indiana has major health questions at wide receiver. FSU transfer DJ Matthews Jr was an effective piece for the Hoosiers last year before QB Armageddon came for them, and as a (nearly) top-50 recruit who operates out of the slot he's obviously a crucial piece for the all-screens-all-the-time offense. He missed the Nebraska game; Tom Allen on his possibility of return:

"DJ was here, warmed up, tried to see if he could go. Still not quite 100 percent yet, and don't wanna do anything to set him back. We need him, without question, for the long haul. So hopefully we'll get both those guys back next week, if at all possible."

JUCO transfer Cam Camper is the strapping contested-ball yin to Matthew's yang; he also missed Nebraska and is also looking like a game-time decision:

"Cam's got a non-Covid related illness that, hopefully, he should be back from here soon. But wasn't able to play, and something that we don't have any control over. So he'll be okay, but couldn't bring him on the trip."

If Matthews warmed up last week he's probably ready to go this week, but Allen might be glancing at the spread here. If there's even a faint chance that playing Matthews might aggravate his "lower body injury" discretion may be the better part of valor here. Camper's probably going to be fine; an illness that lays you up for multiple weeks and isn't mono would be unusual.

Mizzou transfer Connor Bazelak is a major upgrade from Donoven McCulley, last year's emergency quarterback turned WR, but let's not get crazy here. Alex:

…decent QB who is okay at running Indiana's offense but doesn't get much help from his offensive line and his arm is not strong enough or accurate enough to be a "good" power five QB. Is he better than Donaven McCulley was last November? Of course. Bazelak at least has the ability to throw the football, compared to the pseudo-wildcat that Indiana was running with in McCulley. Is he on the same level as JJ McCarthy or CJ Stroud? Not even close. …

Bazelak was dinking-and-dunking. The eight screens reflects the amount of Bazelak's work that is very close to the line of scrimmage, and I had several more throws in the catchable bucket that were right on the fringe of being considered "downfield". Slants and out routes comprise most of the "downfield" work for Bazelak.

As soon as things get further downfield than eight or so yards, Bazelak's accuracy gets questionable. This is due in no small part to the OL being a sieve. Basic stats cannot entirely encompass this because of all the screens but FO breaks down sack rates by standard and normal downs, and it's there. Indiana goes from 21 to 77 when downs go from standard to passing, and their sack rate allowed more than quadruples from 2.0% to 8.3%. Somewhat bafflingly, Michigan is 6th nationally at passing down sack rate.

Indiana will be desperate to stay ahead of the chains and get into third and medium—at least—and will probably disintegrate as soon as a passing down appears. They will have to stay ahead of the chains with passes, because of their run game. Can I interest you in another screen?

*[Wait… is the transcontinental a quarterback screen? I think it is! Michigan: master of the quarterback screen.]

KEY MATCHUP: BACK SEVEN GENTLEMEN vs TACKLING. So I heard you like screens in your screens.

SPECIAL TEAMS

First, Michigan has once again ascended to the top of the FEI special teams rankings. Hail JayBaugh.

As far as Indiana goes, they have been very boring. They have not had a kick return of note in at least six years. They've only had six punt return opportunities on the season; these are averaging 3.2 yards an attempt. It is notable that last year DJ Matthews had a return TD and Indiana blocked a punt for a touchdown, but both of those came against Idaho so maybe it's not that notable. Matthews at least has the physical profile of a guy who can do damage as a returner.

Kicker Charles Campbell returns for his third season as the starter and is 8/9 on the year. These have generally been from some distance; he's 12th in field goal efficiency. Last year he was 13/18 and 44th, so he is still under suspicion of being mid.

Punter James Evans returns after a wobbly freshman year  that saw him average just under 42 yards a kick and give back a bunch of that on returns. His 38 yard net was second-worst in the conference, and that was with an extremely low number of low-upside punts (just 12 inside the 20 and 4 touchbacks).  Indiana ranked 100th nationally in efficiency, and things are basically the same this year at 99th. Could be some fireworks opportunities for AJ Henning in this one.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING THE BEST

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Michigan's giving up any non-blitz pass rush.
• McCarthy deep ball still off.
• Michigan can't tackle in space.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Indiana is in a passing down.
• AJ Henning gets a line drive.
• The IU WR corps is still down their two best players.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 2 (Baseline: 5; –1 for D-II Guy Vs FCS Guy But Our FCS Is Built Different, –1 for Ye Gods That Ground Game, –1 for We've Already Seen The All-Screen Offense Twice This Year And It Was Fine, –1 for Broken Shell Of A Pass Defense, –1 for It's A Road Game But Iiiiiis It?, +1 for Tom Allen Weird Blitzes, +1 for Respectable Run Defense, Sort Of?)

Desperate need to win level: 9 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Tom Allen Weird Vibes, +1 for Increasingly Plausible 11-1 CFP Appearance, +1 for I Mean The Team Is Undefeated, +1 for Four Score Spread)

Loss will cause me to… field a bunch of grenades from Indiana Football Twitter, which I submit is the most ruthless twitter relative to actual success anywhere in these twitters.

Win will cause me to… "Wlat Blel," he repeated to himself for seven straight days, going deep into madness and coming out the other side.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

IU will have to rely on explosives but trying to get those explosives means sitting back in the pocket and probably dying. All screens will be annoying but there's a reason offenses like this don't really do a whole lot against generally functional defenses. With the run game DOA it seems like a matter of time before any particular IU drive ends up in third and eight and that's doom.

On the other side of the ball, IU has a decent chance to hold up against the Michigan ground game but they've been just decimated by everyone they play in the air, so if Michigan is wise they'll give McCarthy a bunch of Iowa-like throws early to soften them up and then start blitzing it deep.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid on Saturday:

• McCarthy goes for 300.
• Andrel Anthony takes advantage of the Wilson injury to post a 100 yard day.
• Eyabi Okie puts up another sack and is constantly in the backfield on passing downs.
• Michigan 39, Indiana 15