Essentials

Overview

First, an apology for missing last week's preview: I've been having a series of migraines that started last Friday and have been erratically debilitated. I had two on Saturday, which meant that was not my favorite Saturday of all time. Anyway.

This week Michigan gets the battered husk of an Indiana team that was ranked 17th in the preseason—their first preseason ranking since 1968. Things have not gone to plan, to say the least. Iowa obliterated them in the opener and their only wins to date have been against FCS Idaho and Western Kentucky, the latter by two points. Michael Penix came down with a severe case of Devin Gardner disease before getting knocked out for the third consecutive season; his backup has also gone out; the defense appears to be growing older and frailer by the week. Things are not good in Mudville.

[Hit THE JUMP for depressing like Indiana hasn't been in a while]

Run Offense vs Indiana

[Bryan Fuller]

This is the one chunk of Indiana's team that's sort of kind of lived up to expectations, which were relatively modest. If you recall, a reason for hope expressed last week was IU's performance against MSU. They held the Spartans to 2.9 YPC and were, along with Nebraska, one of two teams to bottle up Kenneth Walker III. They've also done solid work against Maryland.

On the other hand, 4.4 YPC to an Iowa rush offense that suddenly can do nothing, 5.0 to Penn State, and 5.8 to Ohio State are troughs of the weird sine wave that is this rush defense. Overall things are fine—and only fine. Alex:

So what do I think about the Indiana defense? My biggest takeaway from watching them is "they're fine."

I did not read that quote before writing that Indiana was "fine and only fine." Also:

I think there is potential here for Michigan to go to work. DT Demarcus Elliott did not impress me on the interior and that's a matchup the Wolverines could target. He's culpable for PSU's best rushing play (blown out of the orbit), though the LBs were even worse:

…the back seven was relied on a decent amount to stop the running game, and this was against a PSU OL that I'm very suspect of. If Michigan can get their guards healthy, I think they should be able to break off some runs against Indiana. Not to mention the fact that the tackling, like in the above clip, was only so-so.

Michigan's been a bit Jekyll-and-Hyde themselves here, alternating dominant performances with questionable ones. Their own injury issues on the OL play into that, of course. So too does a sudden drop in performance from Blake Corum, who had two massive negative plays last Saturday in between his usual dance through various unblocked guys.

Indiana has a couple of problems on the DL and one LB, Micah McFadden, who is able to make up for a multitude of sins. Michigan has been erratic but mostly paving. This points towards a slight Michigan victory, in that they should expect to put up 4 yards and change on their various carries.

KEY MATCHUP: OL CLIMBING TO THE SECOND LEVEL vs MCFADDEN. Dude sheds blocks and is probably headed for All Big Ten. He's the biggest problem Michigan's going to face in either phase when on offense.

Pass Offense vs Indiana

Can Anthony follow up his MSU performance with something in the same ballpark? [Barron]

Indiana's developed a feisty defense over the years but no one, let alone the generally talent-deficient Hoosiers, is able to weather this kind of storm in their secondary:

All-American cornerback Tiawan Mullen was a surprise pregame scratch Saturday. He warmed up in pads before trainers determined he couldn’t play with a leg injury.

It was a blow to a secondary already dealing with the loss of cornerback Christopher Keys, who is out for the year with a torn ACL. Safety Devon Matthews has missed games, cornerback Jaylin Williams had a concussion but completed concussion protocol. Cornerback Reese Taylor and safety Raheem Layne came off the field against Penn State with injuries, and their status is uncertain.

Taylor and Mullen have been close to returning but have not been major factors. Taylor did not play against Maryland and Mullen was on the field briefly but did not play much. The impact on IU's pass defense was not immediately apparent but has been drastic the past two weekends:

Sort of important to get them back, but both guys are game-time decisions this weekend:

Tiawan Mullen and Reese Taylor have practiced this week but continue to be week to week. Same with Tuttle and Penix according to Tom Allen on Zoom. #iufb

— Mike Schumann @ The Daily Hoosier (@daily_hoosier) November 4, 2021

Meanwhile safety Josh Sanguinetti is "pretty doubtful." One wonders if Indiana's going to bother rushing back their cornerbacks for a road night game where they're 20-point dogs when a much more tractable Rutgers-Minnesota-Purdue stretch beckons. Since IU has to win out for bowl eligibility they might.

Compounding matters for Indiana is that their pass rush has been anemic, particularly from their DL. Ole Miss transfer Ryder Anderson has 3.5 sacks; LB Micah McFadden has 5.5, and the rest of the team has combined for 3. Michigan has given up just three sacks on the season, and these days their passing attempt numbers are not so ludicrously small that you can dismiss that proficiency—they're almost out of triple digits in that department.

So: Cade McNamara should have plenty of time to survey the field and Indiana may be without major pieces of their starting secondary. If he continues his MSU performance he should light this defense up. If those bugaboos about consistency crop up it'll be back to the salt mines. The thing that does seem clear is that McNamara will have the opportunity to follow up without undue duress.

KEY MATCHUP:  ANDREL ANTHONY vs SUDDEN EXPECTATIONS. Probably no exaggeration to say this is the most anticipated midseason game from a receiver with one career game in which he has a catch in probably forever.

Run Defense vs Indiana

Hinton will look to bounce back [Barron]

This has been a slog for the Hoosiers against anyone bearing a pulse. Indiana imported USC transfer Stephen Carr this offseason; he has only cracked 100 rushing yards against Idaho, WKU, and Maryland. Carr in all other games: 84 carries, 225 yards, 2.7 yards per carry. Woof. Alex:

The Maryland defense Indiana saw in this game gave up 321 yards on 5.6 YPC to the Minnesota Gophers the preceding week and was gashed for 66 points by Ohio State the week before that. They are very bad, and if you take out one long run, Indiana was sitting at 3.37 YPC for the game in this one. Not great. … The state of the OL becomes more alarming when you realize that RB Stephen Carr is actually doing a lot of work to grind out extra yards for himself.

Adding QB Donovan McCulley to the mix is hypothetically a lift since he's got more upside as a runner than the broken version of Penix, but a predictable diet of third-and-long QB draws and the occasional play where McCulley finds out that this isn't high school anymore and he can't bounce everything have limited his effectiveness early.

Various IU OL got or neared cyans in FFFF; interestingly it took an injury for former Michigan OL Zach Carpenter to get on the field at guard after spending a chunk of last year as Michigan's starting center.

Michigan is coming off a dispiriting performance against MSU but can take some solace in the fact that big chunks of Walker's yards came on either bounces outside the tackles that are fixable—and don't seem to be in Carr's repertoire—or tempo garbage that Michigan probably spent all week getting a handle on. The MSU OL didn't really get much push, but several critical errors on the part of Michigan players (Kris Jenkins getting out of a gap, poor edge control) resulted in gashes. Michigan has taken on rushing units like IU plenty this season and has generally contained, but not stomped, them.

The major fear here is that Indiana will suddenly get a grasp on how to use McCulley effectively in zone read stuff, but that takes longer to install than a couple weeks and IU's offensive coordinator is former Michigan QB Nick Sheridan. IU Twitter is convinced that Sheridan is a dinosaur and the results seem to bear that out. Kevin Wilson's #chaosteam has degraded to the point where Indiana's put up 6, 0, 15, 7, and 35 points up in Big Ten games. That 35 was against Maryland, and while I think Michigan's defense has some issues that are liable to make them underperform against top-tier opponents, Indiana is emphatically not that.

KEY MATCHUP:

Pass Defense vs Indiana

TyFry: still around somehow [Barron]

Indiana is down to third-string freshman Donovan McCulley after injuries to Michael Penix (inevitable) and Jack Tuttle (less inevitable). McCulley was thrown to the wolves at the end of the OSU game, going 1/6. He started and went the whole way against Maryland, going 14/25 for 242 yards and two touchdowns, although 41 of those yards came when a ball snuck through the hands of a Maryland defender and landed in Miles Marshall's. Overall he looked like you'd expect a freshman Indiana QB to look: tall, pretty mobile, very much a project (even if in this case he was a top-250 recruit). Alex:

McCulley didn't get eaten alive, but many of the problems we saw in the rushing component (notably the "not knowing what's going on" part) reared their head … generally hit a high percentage of the easy throws … wavering accuracy … pocket presence was also pretty bad. … a young QB who isn't up to speed on the pace of college football, whose arm has some flashes but isn't yet consistent at the NCAA level, and who the coaches do not trust to fully orchestrate the offense

McCulley is throwing to a couple of familiar names (slot dot Ty Fryfogle and TE Peyton Hendershot) and then a collection of new ones who haven't built up enough of a resume to make definitive assertions about. The aforementioned Marshall is a 6'4 leaper but hasn't been particularly involved with the offense to date. Fryfogle is reliable underneath but not much of a wiggle guy after the catch. He's in the Drew Dileo mold, but Indiana targets him a ton deep because their other options are not great. You'd think Dax Hill would be able to contain that fairly well, but we've recently re-learned the fact that a well-thrown slot fade is a bear for anyone to defend.

You might be thinking "when a slot and a TE are your leading receivers by miles, that says something about something" and you would be correct: Indiana has 274 passes and has ceded 21 sacks. Teams are lighting up this offensive line, and these teams do not have Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo coming off the edges. It is certain that the Indiana coaching staff is preparing an offensive gameplan that has one overriding priority: do not get McCulley murdered.

Therefore Indiana is likely to put the training wheels on McCulley and try to avoid using him on pure dropbacks unless forced to. That means quick game stuff, rollouts, a ton of runs on nominal passing downs, and, yes, more slot fades since those can get out fast. Michigan will have to have a close eye on Carr, staple the pocket closed with the DTs, and avoid massive coverage busts. When they can do that McCulley is probably going to freak out and a punt will ensue.

KEY MATCHUP: DAX HILL vs SLOT FADES. I hate slot fades again.

SPECIAL TEAMS

For the nth-1 time in the last n weeks Michigan faces a team languishing in the triple digits in FEI's special teams rankings. (MSU was the exception.) They rank hideously in both return phases, although it should be pointed out that FEI does not count FCS games and Indiana lit up Idaho. Against the Vandals: 8 returns, 154 yards, two touchdowns, one of them on a blocked punt. Against the rest of the schedule: four returns, 7 yards. Resolved: don't be an FCS team. Meanwhile at no point has Indiana returned a kickoff well.

They're also miserable in kickoff coverage rankings, but as per usual that's because of one adverse event. Cincinnati returned a kick for a TD, and that's all it takes to rank 120th.

Indiana's punting has been solid, with a 42 yard average and no massive returns given up, and kicker Charles Campbell is 12/15 on the season, which puts him in the top 20 once you account for the distances on those FGs. Indiana's also blocked three punts this year. Michigan's system hasn't been close to getting one blocked for a while, FWIW.

On Michigan's side they check in third in the FEI rankings with every category ranking in the top 30; Michigan's punting leads the way for the unit at #6 nationally.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING WELL

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• McCulley's legs are getting Indiana out of jams, intentionally or not.
• Nick Sheridan channels the essence of Chip Kelly.
• Indiana's secondary is intact.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• It's a passing down.
• McNamara maintains his level of performance.
• Andrel Anthony soars above some more dudes.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline: 5; –1 for Third String QB, –1 for Home Night Game, –1 for Can't Run At All, –1 for Distinct Lack Of Whizbang From The Coaching Staff, –1 for MASH Unit Secondary, +1 for Mmm Collapse O'Clock, +1 for MSU Blueprint For College Crappeing Our DC, +1 for I Don't Have A Reason But I Just Kind Of Feel Bad)

Desperate need to win level: 7 (Baseline: 5; +1 for We Must Restore The Indiana Streak, +1 for I Mean I Guess It's All To Play For Still, +1 for Again I Must Emphasize My Long Experience With Losing Games In Which Your Team Is Favored By 20 Or More And It Is Not Fun, +1 for Home Night Game Record, –1 for Looming Gallows At End Of Season Even Loomier, –1 for Basketball Soon Come)

Loss will cause me to… pay Wayne State university six dollars to watch a replay of the exhibition game.

Win will cause me to… same?

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

This is a battered and beaten-down Indiana team that flashed some life last weekend but projects to get its QB killed several times since their traditional ground game doesn't go anywhere and any passing down is going to be open season for Michigan's ends of doom. Some level of screens and chicanery will allow IU to move the ball a bit; sustained drives look real unlikely.

What IU's defense looks like is going to depend heavily on how healthy their secondary is. A near-total lack of organic pass rush likely dooms them either way as long as McNamara is at least somewhat dialed in.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• McNamara remains dialed in.
• McCulley does not finish the game, as Indiana decides discretion is the better part of valor.
• Michigan, 29-11