Essentials

WHAT	#3 Michigan (10-0) vs Illinois (7-3)
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	Noon Eastern
THE LINE	M –17.5
TELEVISION	ABC (McDonough/Blackledge)
TICKETS	From $33.
WEATHER	cloudy, ~0% chance of snow 15 mph wind mid to high 20s.

Overview

It was all there for the 7-1 Illini two weeks ago. Just beat MSU and Purdue and they could have walked into this game already crowned the Big Ten West champs; even a split would have allowed them to lose to Michigan and still control their own destiny in the Hat game against Northwestern.

Illinois did not win either of those games. It in fact lost them in brutally painful fashion, outgaining MSU by about 150 yards and then losing Chase Brown to an ugly-looking injury with 30 seconds left against Purdue. Now they're in a multi-way ACC-Coastal-ass tie atop the West at 4-3 and absolutely need to win on the road against Michigan to have any chance of reclaiming what once looked all but assured.

Run Offense vs Illinois

also in Big Ten West [Fuller]

Before we get into any details we should talk about the Big Ten West. SP+, our leading fancystat, asserts that this is the fourth-best defense in the country. Wow! Nice. However, it also asserts that Iowa is #1, Minnesota is #6, and Wisconsin is #20. I do not think that four of the top 20 defenses in America reside in the Big Ten West.

I think that the insular nature of schedules is causing SP+ to overrate Big Ten West defenses, which are mostly playing against a pile of the worst crap to ever get labeled an offense. There is some level of competence here that has not been seen for many a moon, but the overall talent level here makes it infeasible that this is actually a top-five defense.

That said: For much of the year Illinois has absolutely throttled teams on the ground. They're 6th in line yards allowed, second in opportunity rate allowed, 8th in power success rate, and seventh in stuff rate. They got Paul Chryst fired when Wisconsin netted two (TWO) rushing yards. Wisconsin! Iowa, Nebraska, Virginia, and Indiana all failed to acquire three yards per carry or 100 total yards. Only three opponents have even crested 100 yards—but the bad news for the Illini is that those are three of the last four opponents. Mo Ibrahim put up an efficient day with a 15 for 127 line (Minnesota was held to 46 plays from scrimmage largely because his QBs averaged 2.1 YPA with three picks); Michigan State's three RBs combined for a 22 for 104 line; Devin Mockobee had 28 for 106.

This is not exactly getting blown the hell out on the ground, but also we are talking about the MSU and Purdue ground games. Michigan is on another level. Several other levels.

However! Alex did the Purdue game and diagnosed Illinois issues to be mostly getting optioned and having some bad edge play. In the interior they are stout, running out three 300-pound DL on every snap, two of which got stars:

What stays constant (for the most part) is three down linemen, Keith Randolph Jr., Calvin Avery, and Jer'Zhan Newton. They have not budged much this season and are a big part of why Illinois has allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards per game in the NCAA this season. Newton adds the most pass rush of the three, but all of them are stout in run defense. If Michigan is able to shove these guys around, it will be a very good sign going into The Game.

There will not be a lot of variation or rotation here: it will be three DT types, a big ol' "LB" who's really a standup DE in true freshman Gabe Jacas, a couple of ILBs, and the strong safety playing straight up in the box most of the game.

Michigan has the personnel to add a bunch of tight ends and play around the DTs and there will be a fair bit of that. One open question: is this going to be a game where JJ McCarthy's legs get added back into the equation? This is not a 30 point spread against a backup QB; this game is loseable, and this is a defense that is always +1 in the box but puts a safety in DJ Durkin territory 15 yards downfield. Evening up the numbers with QB option has the potential to rip this defense's approach up.

Meanwhile this looks like a real Kaiju vs Kaiju event in the middle of the line. If Michigan can move these guys they'll go into Columbus believing they can beat OSU upside the head with a shoe until a playoff bid falls out.

KEY MATCHUP: JJ MCCARTHY vs MAYBE MICHIGAN WILL BLOCK THE SAFETY THIS TIME? I do expect McCarthy's legs to re-enter the chat, both because it's likely to be necessary against a run defense that Michigan can't just plow and because giving him some live-fire reps before OSU seems like a good idea.

Pass Offense vs Illinois

present in spirit [Patrick Barron]

So I heard you like Don Brown? I cannot find this tweet any more but Twitter had a graph of the most man-to-man heavy teams in college football and Illinois stood out above the pack. They man you up, they run cover one, they put an extra guy in the box. They solve their problems with aggression, and it's worked out beautifully against some of the worst quarterbacking known to man. It's also held up pretty decently the last two weeks; while Illinois lost those games they held Payton Thorne to 6.3 YPA and Aidan O'Connell to 5.9. Alex notes that they barely bother with standard four-man rushes:

Illinois comes in with a fascinating pressure score, rushing fewer than four players on 21.6% of snaps, a pretty significant number.... yet also rushing more than four on 48.7% of snaps, one of the most blitzy numbers I've tracked this season. In other words, on ~70% of the snaps against Purdue, Illinois was either blitzing or dropping eight into coverage.

The flipside of starting a bunch of DT types without a whole lot of rush mojo is that a four man rush is more or less relying on one guy to get around the corner, and if you don't have that guy—and it doesn't look like Illinois does, not really—you're going to have to get after it with blitzes. A 50/50 blitz rate qualifies you for honorary Don Brown status, but even that only gets you to 67th in sack rate.

Illinois must have some dudes on the back end, and they clearly have at least one in Devon Weatherspoon, PFF's #1 corner nationally. Alex did not see anything to dispute that in Weatherspoon's matchup with Charlie Jones, who he mostly stuffed in a sack. Unfortunately for Illinois they lost both Tahveon Nicholson, the starter much of the year, and Terrell Jennings, his replacement, for the season recently. Tyler Strain came in during the MSU game, getting burned for a Jayden Reed touchdown but otherwise holding his own. Then Strain got knocked out of the Purdue game with a concussion; his status for this weekend is unknown.

That leaves true freshman Xavier Scott, last cycle's #1357 recruit, as the last man standing. He got in against Purdue and got hit with a PI flag more or less immediately, then gave up catches on two of three targets. Illinois is unlikely to change who they are because of CB injuries, but can you play nonstop man-to-man when you're down to option #5 at CB? Even option #4 seems like a dubious proposition.

KEY MATCHUP: JJ MCCARTHY vs NOT THROWING TO RONNIE BELL. Weatherspoon usually follows around the opposition's best, and the guy who is Not Weatherspoon is a true freshman who had one other P5 offer, Pitt, and had heavy service academy interest. Weatherspoon should spend the game having a nice relaxing jog very far away from the ball.

Run Defense vs Illinois

Sounds like Alex just charted a Michigan game:

Illinois has the most diverse array of run concepts- by far- of any opponent I've charted this season. They were throwing the whole kitchen sink out there, power/counter/pin-and-pull + inside zone/stretch/duo + all kinds of end arounds and other funky stuff. Folks who are into play designs like Patrick Mayhorn at Meet At Midfield have been documenting the sheer volume of different run plays that Illinois has been running this season and it is really Harbaugh-esque.

This will not be particularly good prep for OSU, but it will be interesting. Probably.

Because also in unfortunate injury news: star running back Chase Brown left late in the Purdue game. That injury looked pretty bad—couldn't get off the field by himself sort of thing—but Bielema says he's "trending in the right direction" and might be available. If Brown does go Michigan will face off against Kroger brand Blake Corum:

The whole offense revolves around Brown and his talents, his ability to find hidden yards on the ground, carry it 20-30 times a game with no issues, and play a role as a receiver. … The guy can play. His abilities as a runner are all on display right here:

He waits to find a hole, then accelerates, then makes a jump cut, then another one, then gets contacted and spins forward for extra yardage while being tackled. Sign me up.

Brown doesn't hit a ton of home runs—Illinois has just one 40+ yard run on the year—but leads the country with 22 rushes of 15 or more.

If Brown does not go, your guess is as good as anyone's about his backups. Brown has 280 carries already this year, which implies that his backups are a long way away; Reggie Love III and Josh McCray are the names here, though McCray has missed much of the season and may or may not be available himself.

One thing that might reassure is that the underlying numbers here for Illinois aren't actually very good. The Football Outsiders drill-down stats have the Illini around 80th in most categories and they're in the 90s for stuff rate. Purdue just stuffed over a quarter of Illinois runs. One dollar says that this is Bielema's system being too complicated to get all the way right in year two, leading to a lot of mistakes that get plays eaten up in the backfield while everyone else does their job.

This will be a test for a Michigan team that hasn't faced a good rushing offense since…  uh… Penn State? Either Penn State or 2021. It's one you expect them to pass, at least insofar as passing means "give up slightly over three yards a rush as Brown grinds his way to an inefficient 118 yards."

KEY MATCHUP: LINEBACKERS vs RUN FITS. These guys see all kinds of crap in practice so I don't think they'll be overwhelmed but Colson is still getting wildly variable grades in UFR and everyone's waiting to see if Barrett can hold it together.

Pass Defense vs Illinois

guy just really likes orange I guess [Syracuse University]

Tommy DeVito transferred in from lllinois and has made a living as a reliable underneath chain-mover with high accuracy for much of the year, and that's all it takes to be an above-average Big Ten quarterback these days. He's completing 70% of his passes for 7.3 YPA and has performed well throughout the season with the notable exception of an ugly, abbreviated day against Iowa. DeVito will not wow you physically and doesn't have a huge arm, but he's decisive and accurate. Alex charted him with 19 positive events and 7 negative ones against Minnesota, which is statistically a great defense even if Big Ten West caveats apply. Most of those negative events were run o the mill INs that happen from time to time:

DeVito's DSR of 73% lines up pretty neatly with the counting stats from the game: 25/32 (78%) for 252 yards (7.9 Y/A), 1 TD to 0 INT. He was excellent if you adjust it for what Illinois asks him to do. The reason I keep adding that caveat is Illinois does not expect DeVito to be CJ Stroud, leading a dynamic vertical passing game. Bert only asks DeVito to make the passes he should make, between 5 and 10 yards down the field generally, to keep the offense moving and complement the rushing attack.

Electric slot and former dual-threat QB Isaiah Williams is the main target, and when he's the target the throw is generally not leaving the area within five yards of the LOS. Williams has 64 catches(!) that average just over 8 yards a pop. He gets a ton of screens as Illinois runs a bunch of RPO reliefs to keep guys off of Brown.

Miami transfer Brian Hightower and sophomore Pat Bryant are both strapping 6'3" types who will go high point a ball and are options further downfield. Not a whole lot further downfield given DeVito's arm, but he can get out your default thirty yard fade ball.

Pass protection has been dubious given the prevalence of short stuff; when forced into longer attempts to convert Illinois's sack rate drops fifty spots. Michigan should be able to get through from time to time.

KEY MATCHUP: TACKLING vs ISAIAH WILLIAMS. This does not project to be a team that rips off a bunch of explosives; their main way to do so would be getting Williams loose in space and seeing a safety or two get dunked on.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Another middling opposition unit. Punter Hugh Robertson is the worst guy in the league by a mile in terms of raw average, with a 37.6 gross. That's so far back of Minnesota's Mark Crawford for #13 that I wonder if there's a couple of partially blocked punts in there, or other assorted weirdnesses. One upside of the little baby punts is that opponents have a total of six return yards all year. I am a little baffled how this adds up to the #67 punting efficiency, per FEI.

Kicker Caleb Griffin is 10/14 on the year with a long of 48; this slots Illinois in around average nationally. Backup Fabrizio Pinton got seven FGAs up in two games Griffin missed, making all of them. They were all chip shots, though, and he missed an extra point.

Illinois return units have not done anything at all this year. Isaiah Williams is their punt returner, though, and hypothetically has the athleticism to do something interesting.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING THE BEST

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Michigan's gap integrity crumbles against the mirror matchup.
• Isaiah Williams does something five-star-ish.
• Michigan's passing game still seems very off kilter.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• The interior trio is straight up beating on the very good Illinois DTs.
• McCarthy legs break the Illinois defensive approach.
• Michigan DTs are getting to Brown before he can get started.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Hey, They're Us!, –1 for Except Not Like That, –1 for Don Brown Defense With Massive Corner Injury Issues Sounds Bad, –1 for Relative MSU Performances, +1 for Is That A Functional QB On The Other Team?, –1 for Trench Advantage Tested But I Mean)

Desperate need to win level: 9 (Baseline: 5; +1 for OSU vibes, +1 for Slim Chance At Playoff Berth At 11-1, +1 for Undefeated Is Fun, +1 for Once Again I Must Repeat: OSU Vibes, +1 for Golly I Would Like To Beat OSU, –1 for Uhhhhhh Functionally A Mulligan?)

Loss will cause me to… blink repeatedly and then try to explain it all away as I construct a theory of victory in Columbus anyway.

Win will cause me to… ARMAGEDDON TWOOOOOOOOOO LET'S ALL DIE AND ASCEND TO GLORY

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

This is the first team Michigan has played with any claim to trenches equality, and even then you look at the drill-down stats for the two rushing offenses and it becomes clear that one of these things is not like the other. Illinois is on the upswing, but they're still swinging up to the bit where Michigan apparently is.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid on Saturday:

• Corum out-rushes Brown by 50 yards.
• JJ McCarthy hits a deep ball to whoever Weatherspoon is not checking.
• Mmm, field goals.
• Michigan, 26-13