Ohio State 68, Michigan 67
The admittedly tired cliché "too little, too late" encapsulates both Michigan's performance in their Big Ten Tournament semifinal loss to Ohio State and the final possession which determined the outcome.
One look at the box score tells you the Wolverines had little business having the game in their hands at the end. Isaiah Livers, ruled out indefinitely with a "stress injury" to his foot, is absent. Franz Wagner shot 2/10 from the field before fouling out in 29 minutes, Mike Smith went 1/11, Chaundee Brown 1/6, new starter Brandon Johns 0/3. Terrance Williams played 12 minutes without scoring a point. The team went 6/19 from beyond the arc.
But Michigan hung around against an Ohio State squad also down a starter, big man Kyle Young. Hunter Dickinson dominated down low with 21 points on 15 shooting possessions, eight rebounds, a block, and a steal in 30 minutes. Eli Brooks was the lone Wolverine to find his outside shooting stroke, netting 12 and hitting 2/4 three-pointers. Austin Davis went 3/4 and played a critical first-half stretch after Dickinson hit his funny bone. The team took remarkable care of the ball, turning it over only twice, and made a living at the line, cashing 21 of 23 free throws.
Washington was money whenever he had space [Campredon]
It wasn't enough. The Wolverines scraped to a one-point halftime lead, then the Buckeyes came out of the tunnel firing. Their two stars, Duane Washington Jr. and EJ Liddell, poured in 32 of their combined 42 points in the second half. Washington worked Michigan's guards off the high screen, hitting pull-up jumpers when a big man loomed or turning the corner and finishing when the paint opened up. Liddell stretched the defense thin and made two three-pointers immediately off inbounds plays.
With 4:19 remaining, a pair of Liddell free throws put OSU up by 13. Wagner had fouled out a minute prior. Livers sat on the bench in a walking boot. Instead, they hit back, and fought tooth and nail to the final buzzer. Brooks hit a three, then Dickinson finished an and-one dunk after CJ Walker responded with a layup; Dickinson answered a Washington layup with one of his own off a pretty feed from Johns; Dickinson blocked Washington; Dickinson put back his own miss. Suddenly, this was a six-point game with 1:39 to play.
Then came a moment that'll stick despite the result. With Michigan pressing in the backcourt, EJ Liddell waved off his teammates to go one-on-one at Dickinson, only for Dickinson to strip him of the ball, grab it, and nimbly work his way to the rim for a transition finish. A possibly rattled Liddell turned it over again on the next play, dribbling the ball out of bounds off his own knee. Michigan worked the ball around the horn beautifully before Brown broke his game-long slump with a triple to cut the deficit to a single point. Walker stepped on the baseline with 28 seconds left while attempting to drive and kick to a shooter.
couldn't be stopped except by his funny bone [Campredon]
Somehow, Michigan had the ball with a chance to win. Juwan Howard chose to go for the regulation victory, letting Smith work the clock way down before going into pick-and-roll action with Dickinson. Smith stepped back and went for a shot he's hit several times over his excellent recent stretch of games; it didn't drop, and there was no time for a putback.
While I don't mind seeing Howard go for the win, it's hard to watch that final possession go by without Dickinson getting either a touch down low—which could've opened up an easier shot for someone else—or a chance at the putback after he and Johns had combined for five offensive boards. If they face the same situation down the line, you may see them start their action a few seconds earlier, at least.
Michigan will not double up on Big Ten banners this season. Howard is still clearly figuring out how best to handle the rotation with Livers out for the foreseeable future. The team has a week and a tune-up against what should be a #16-seed before win-or-go-home time puts every play and coaching decision under intense scrutiny. We at least learned this today: with or without Livers, this team isn't going down without a fight.
[Hit THE JUMP for the box score.]
It was a gutsy play from a team that look disjointed for most of the game. I would have been fine if Smith had taken the last shot but I agree they needed to get Dickinson involved in some way earlier.
But overall feels like a positive sign for the team's resiliency. They do need to figure out an offensive identity again, but if Dickinson's play in this game is signs of a second wind that's a good step in that direction.
TIL that you can elbow/batter/mash opponents faces in the paint without fear of foul call (or even a review for flagrant call) if you play for osu.
Foul tally may show an edge for Michigan today, but that is certainly *not* how the threshold for calls was going today.
Not the main reason we lost, but no way Franz fouls out in a fairly officiated game.
I thought the refs did a mostly solid job today. There were some very questionable and-1s that went in OSU’s favor that were not similarly called on Michigan’s end. The most egregious mistake by the officials was the continuation on Washington’s and-1 where he had not even picked up his dribble to gather the ball for the shot attempt. Overall, not bad, but still some tough breaks from the zebras.
Yes, inconsistency on what the refs gave OSU as and 1s vs the similar fouls they either didn't give us the and 1 or even call it a shooting foul was super frustrating.
I don't think the refs were that bad beyond their weird interpretation of continuations. Like, UM had a couple of and-ones that didn't get called while OSU got a couple that were equally on the line.
Honestly, what got UM was them hitting a below-average number of 3s while OSU hit an above-average of them. I know people will talk about the FT rate with UM hitting 92% but the difference between OSU hitting 54% of their 3s vs. their season average of 36% is 12 points, while UM's FT difference is 5. In a game decided by a point, it really felt like a healthy UM would have shot a bit better and pull away.
Ah well.
After the regular season closeout gauntlet, I'm ok with this. The guys need rest and time to sort out a new rotation. I still think we're primed for a F4 run at minimum without Livers.
You really see a Final Four run without the team's leader and best shooter (along with Franz)? It's good to stay positive. But that's nuts, dude.
Our margin for error is smaller without him. But being a 1 seed will help.
Today our entire team put up bricks from downtown for 90% of the game and still had a chance to beat a team that will be a 2 seed.
Shooting in this building seems to take an adjustment, but we now have practice doing it, while non-Big Ten teams don't. That could be a big factor for us in the tournament.
I mean 31% from three is not much off their average
Also, not every game is being played in Lucas Oil so that's not really an advantage
Our final 3pt numbers don't look that bad, but for the vast majority of the game we couldn't buy a 3 (while OSU did not exactly have that problem). We made a few down the stretch and closed the gap.
We're probably not going to have too many games where we're 3-17 or whatever it was for the first 35 minutes. Nor is it likely that Wagner will foul out with five minutes to go. I don't even remember him fouling out once before this.
This game was pretty much a worst-case scenario, right down to having no prep time to replace Livers. Still we had a chance to win at the end.
Michigan's season average coming into this game was 40% from 3; they shot ~10% below that. That translates to a 6-point swing in this game, which would obviously cover the difference. It's not nothing that they had a below-average shooting game against a team that isn't particularly good at defending against the 3.
Are we guaranteed to have all of our games in this building?
Michigan was in the game because of one very anomalous statistic--the team had TWO TURNOVERS. If they had had their normal 11 or so, they lose by 14+ and probably would have lost by 5-7 with even better than average shooting.
When I look at the boxscore I see a pretty even game...
OSU: 200 minutes
Michigan: 200 minutes
...you can't get any more even than that!
March 14th, 2021 at 12:36 AM ^
Yeah...when I look at the context of the game, you can pretty much get off this thread and
"Go Chuck Yourself".
Kudos to you, sir. It is so important to keep any optimism in check. Important work you are doing.
God forbid he'd be honest and state his opinion. FF at minimum without Livers is very unlikely. Also, people are mentioning how good OSU is except they were also missing a key player. Now my expectations are down so I can only be pleasantly surprised by a deep tourney run.
I mean, Baylor has had the 120-ish defense since they came back and they're locked in as a 1 seed. Everyone is beatable.
I'd love to see M get another shot at OSU in the Final 4 or whenever. The final four in this B1G tournament seems as good as any Final 4 in the NCAA tournament, though it's likely that Gonzaga will be one of them this year. Not surprising though if there are at least two B1G teams in the final weekend group.
I want another shot at Illinois.
Then we have to make it (!)
Whichev-- let's rest up and do it. FF-- see you in April!!!
March 13th, 2021 at 11:20 PM ^
Don't know about M, especially without Livers if that happens, but I'm confident in saying that OSU is not a final 4 team. They closed out the year with multiple losses to meh teams.
March 13th, 2021 at 11:48 PM ^
The meh teams they lost to down the stretch are Illinois, Iowa, MSU, and us. Three teams in the top 5 and MSU (who beat two other top 5 teams in the final week or so of the regular season) and they literally just beat us today.
My opinion is: meh
The team shot like junk much of the game and OSU was just burying stupid contested 3s at a 55% clip. Sometimes the games are just stupid. However, thats the 3rd time in recent weeks it feels like the offense has laid an egg (Illinois, MSU #2, and now). That's a good way to get bounced in the Sweet 16 or earlier...
Agreed the offense has underperformed recently, but the big ten is insanely talented on offense. We aren't going to see an offense near as good as OSU or Illinois until the sweet 16
This team can win with defense against the baby seals, but probably needs at least two guys to step on offense. Dickinson looked good and Franz can take over when he's not settling for jump shots
The shots just weren’t falling today. This game was only similar to the Illinois and second MSU game in that regard.
The offense generated many quality, open looks from beyond the arc, fed the inside players when they had good advantages, etc. There was a lot to like about how the team played today. Shooting 23 FTs is a great indicator of how the team was able to penetrate and get to the cup or feed the big fellas.
defensively the performance wasn’t even that bad. The amount of TOs generated combined with forcing OSU into many bad looks (lots of contested bricks from the 10-14 ft area) shows the effort of the team on the other end. It just so happened that Washington was burying pull-up Js directly off of ball screens and Lidell was still able to get his.
Sadly we caught some bad breaks in the second half (Wagner’s mysterious 4th foul for the continuation on Washington’s and-one being a prime example) but we also got some gifts at the end (Lidell’s missed dunk).
without Livers, this team could still get to the E8. I think the performance today proved that.
The positive way of looking at this is we could easily have won both the MSU and today's game despite poor shooting.
It seems in any tournament run there's one game that comes down to make or miss at the end - today we missed. Hopefully when that moment arrives in the tournament we hit the winning shot.
Even without Livers, this is a good team with a bunch of weapons. I'm gonna stay optimistic.
March 13th, 2021 at 10:00 PM ^
Yeah, we gotta settle in / settle down, dig in, focus, and do it.
This is a bitter pill.
A bitter red pill.
Not the way I'd want to lose any game, but especially bitter losing to osu.
I, for one, and very excited to see Michigan play one (and potentially two!) teams NOT from the big ten next week. This league is a pain in the ass and the team just needs to rest and regain some confidence by beating some overmatched teams
No games this season matter except the next one
I don't get why teams so often let the clock run down to under :05 before taking a last shot. If you leave a few seconds left, you have a potential second chance off a rebound or a put back.
If you make it and the other team drives the length of the court and scores in the 3 or 4 seconds you left on the clock, then hats off to them. Your odds are still much better than leaving yourself with only one buzzer beater shot at the end.
There's arguments either way. You give yourself more chances if you go earlier, but you also give the opponent a chance. Michigan has been on the other end of more than enough buzzer beaters and crazy shit, so I don't think it's unreasonable to wanna shrink the game down to one shot instead of two or three given how good OSU's offense is
I'd rather have 2 potential chances close to the rim while the opponent has 1 difficult chance at the other end of the floor, than to have just one buzzer beater chance. Let the opposition have to make the buzzer beater from full court.
With Livers and Wagner out, they had to win this game in regulation. Don't blame them going for the last shot. Certainly Smith has proven a reliable shooter. Surprising he couldn't get the ball to Dickinson though. He might have gotten fouled going for the last shot. I'd say it was about 50/50 that they score the final basket and it turned up tails instead of heads.
I understand if it the score is tied, because you don't want your opponent to have a chance. But when you're losing, that shouldn't be a consideration. You need points ASAP.
True, but it's a 1-point game so any score either ties or takes the lead. So I am less bothered playing for the last shot than with a 2 or 3-point deficit.
Agree, plus running it down to the end takes away options and usually puts it in the perimeter player's hand.
Would much rather have them gone right away and get it into Hunter - who probably would have been doubled/tripled and then could kick it out for a much better shot.
Yes, plus if you miss you can foul right away. Being down 1, you would still have a shot at a three with a few seconds left to tie it, even if they made both free throws.
What I don’t understand about the last play: Michigan has run a lot of end-of-half plays before halftime this season. Most of them have been very good! They never/almost never do something like that.
It seems pretty elementary that when you’re down 1 and are in the double bonus, you should drive and either 1) get fouled, needing to make 1 of 2 to tie, 2) kick out to an open guy from 3 if the help comes from outside, or 3) do a swing pass like Smith did before halftime yesterday to the guy under the basket if the help comes from there.
That play was especially maddening considering Smith had a poor shooting game all game and Dickinson had been on fire for the last few minutes, *and* he had a mismatch. They had exactly what they wanted for Smith to drive and then dump off to Dickinson...and they didn’t do it. Sucks not to be playing for a second banner because of such a head-scratching decision late.
Oh well... Had that shot gone down, we'd be talking about how brilliant the decision to NOT call a time was. On to the next one.
I think the play was designed for less time on the clock. Hence why Juwan initiated it so late. I'm guessing they just rolled with it once OSU turned the ball over. They should have just gone for the quick 2 and play defense rather than running it down all the way for a 3-point shot that had no chance w/ the way Smith was playing up to said time. There should've been a timeout called there once they got the ball back so early.
I can remember at least 3 different occasions where Hunter had a guard on him and the team didn't give him the ball for whatever reason. It's mind numbing to not use that advantage... and then to get out-rebounded by them when M is the larger team. Blah.
Anything beyond a S16 is a success for the Big Dance especially with an injured/hampered Livers the way this team is in a tailspin on offense.
My belief is they were trying to make something happen in the paint that just didn’t work. I can’t believe the plan was to waste 20 seconds then throw up a contested 3.
Love what Smith has brought to the team but man today he made many bad mistakes:
- missing the front end of a one and one
- shooting terribly and made really bad decisions on many possessions.
- that last play was awful, you're shooting like shit all game and don't work the ball inside when all we needed was a bucket.
Also Franz needs to play way smarter and not make dumb, unnecessary fouls and Brown needs to shoot better if we're going to have a chance to advance.
I did like the positive minutes we got from Johns and Williams but I'd like to see Johns not be so determined to shoot the ball on the block and pick and choose better when he does.
I wish he had landed strong on the last one. I think Liddell would have hit him pretty hard, maybe forcing the call. But collapsing the way he did let the refs off the hook. ...and still hit the floor pretty hard
"... missing the front end of a one and one ..."
"... shooting terribly ..."
What's your definition of mistake? It's not like Smith decided to not have his shots fall.
Made bad decisions too many times and when you're shots are not falling it's a MISTAKE to be a ball hog on the last play of the game!
Especially when Hunter was feeling it at the end of the game and was carrying us on his back to bring us back in it.
I doubt that Smith was waving off Howard and the playcall to hero-ball that last shot. Now, I think there's an argument to Howard calling a TO and dialing up a play, but that was clearly the playcall UM wanted and either they didn't execute it properly or OSU did a good job denying it. But the idea that Smith took it upon himself to execute that final play is why this post-hoc analysis of the final shot on message boards is inherently limited and usually wrong.
Yeah exactly. They got the switch they wanted. Should have given it to Dickenson for the high percentage shot down low. Smith was having a bad shooting day, so you aren’t even going with the hot hand there. Dickenson and Eli should have been involved in that play.
I believe the intention was to hit Dickinson on the roll but they had sueing on Smith so when they rolled it wasn’t onto walker or Washington. Sueing held Dickinson up on the elbow for just a few seconds too long which didn’t allow him to establish position in the post quick enough. I think by the time any entry pass could have been made it was go time and Smith was left to fire. Really wish coaches would have seen the matchup and called a TO to try and reset the play but that’s a slippery slope because then you have the potential for them to steal the inbounds. I think we need to take the positives on this one. We had a chance to win without Livers and Franz fouling out early. Heck of a comeback those final minutes on a terrible shooting day. Free throws kept us in it. Let’s catch fire in the tourney!
The play wasn't designed for Smith to simply shoot from the top. If you notice, Smith, with the ball, starts to drive to his left, toward the FT line, just as Dickinson starts popping out to set a pick for him. However, the OSU defender on the weakside wing breaks back in toward the free throw line, to cut off Smith's lane. Smith realizes that his cut to the basket isn't going to work, so then he steps back and shoots.
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