Big Ten Tournament Preview: Wisconsin
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
#24 Michigan (23-11, 10-8 B1G) vs #17 Wisconsin (25-8, 12-6) |
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WHERE |
A Full-ish Arena, Maybe? Washington DC |
WHEN | 3 pm ET, Sunday |
LINE |
Wisconsin -1 (KenPom) Wisconsin -1 (Vegas) |
TV |
CBS PBP: Jim Nantz Analysts: Bill Raftery & Grant Hill |
Right: Zak Irvin's 18 points helped Michigan even the season series at the Crisler Center. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
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THE US
It's going pretty well.
Michigan has pulled themselves off the 8/9 line, moving up to a seven-seed on the Bracket Matrix and as high as a six-seed on some recent updates, including Joe Lunardi's. While they probably can't vault to a five-seed, a win should solidify their standing as a six-seed, which would allow them to avoid a one- or two-seed in the first weekend of the tournament. They shouldn't drop lower than a seven even with a loss.
THE LAST TIME
Michigan avenged a 68-64 defeat at the Kohl Center with a 64-58 victory at Crisler. Zak Irvin snapped out of an ugly slump with 18 points, Moe Wagner dropped 20 points and one thunderslam on Zak Showalter, and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman had a pivotal four-point play to highlight a 12-point outing. For Wisconsin, Ethan Happ torched Michigan in the first half, then went quiet in the second as the Wolverines adjusted their defense, throwing more double-teams his way.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
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G | 24 | Bronson Koenig | Sr. | 6'3, 190 | 74 | 21 | 116 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Obnoxiously Clutch Wisconsin Guard. First matchup: 32 mins, 16 pts (2/5 2P, 3/5 3P), 4 reb, 1 ast, 2 to Second matchup: DNP-injured |
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G | 3 | Zak Showalter | Sr. | 6'3, 185 | 72 | 14 | 125 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Barely shoots but very efficient when he does, low assist rate, good defender. First matchup: 28 mins, 6 pts (3/3 2P), 5 reb (1 off), 3 ast, 1 blk Second matchup: 35 mins, 8 pts (1/4 2P, 1/3 3P), 8 reb (4 off), 1 to |
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F | 30 | Vitto Brown | Sr. | 6'8, 235 | 52 | 20 | 99 | Kinda | |||||||||||
Good defender and rebounder, streaky shooter, turnover-prone. First matchup: 26 mins, 13 pts (4/7 2P, 1/4 3P), 3 reb, 1 ast, 1 stl Second matchup: 18 mins, 0 pts (0/3 2P, 0/2 3P), 3 reb |
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F | 10 | Nigel Hayes | Sr. | 6'8, 240 | 79 | 25 | 108 | Kinda | |||||||||||
Great in semis, but hasn't been very efficient this year. Still effective in post. First matchup: 38 mins, 13 pts (3/7 2P, 1/4 3P), 6 reb (3 off), 3 ast, 1 to, 1 stl Second matchup: 33 mins, 6 pts (3/7 2P), 5 reb (1 off), 1 ast, 2 to, 2 blk, 1 stl |
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C | 20 | Ethan Happ | So. | 6'10, 232 | 68 | 28 | 113 | Very | |||||||||||
Efficient, high-usage post scorer, passes well, dismal FT%, great defender. First matchup: 27 mins, 11 pts (5/13 2P), 6 reb (4 off), 3 ast, 3 to, 2 blk, 2 stl Second matchup: 30 mins, 22 pts (10/13 2P), 6 reb (2 off), 6 ast, 3 to, 1 blk, 2 stl |
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G | 0 | D'Mitrik Trice | Fr. | 6'0, 178 | 46 | 18 | 110 | No | |||||||||||
Travis' younger brother. Started season hot from 3P, went cold in B1G play. First matchup: 14 mins, 4 pts (1/1 3P), 3 reb, 1 to, 1 stl Second matchup: 35 mins, 9 pts (1/9 2P, 1/6 3P), 5 reb, 4 ast, 2 to, 2 stl |
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G | 11 | Jordan Hill | Jr. | 6'4, 172 | 23 | 10 | 100 | Kinda | |||||||||||
Tiny usage, iffy shot. First matchup: 13 mins, 5 pts (1/2 2P), 1 reb Second matchup: 22 mins, 3 pts (1/4 3P), 2 reb (1 off), 1 ast, 1 to, 1 blk |
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G | 1 | Brevin Pritzl | Fr. | 6'3, 195 | 13 | 15 | 108 | Kinda | |||||||||||
Decent when going to basket, less so when taking outside shot. First matchup: DNP-CD Second matchup: DNP-CD |
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F | 25 | Alex Illikainen | So. | 6'9, 232 | 16 | 12 | 102 | Yeah | |||||||||||
Bit player who mostly stays out of the way. First matchup: 9 mins, 0 pts (0/2 3P), 2 reb Second matchup: 4 mins, 0 pts (0/1 2P, 0/1 3P), 1 reb (1 off) |
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G | 21 | Khalil Iverson (out) | So. | 6'5, 212 | 35 | 16 | 103 | Kinda | |||||||||||
Athletic backup guard will miss game due to death in family. First matchup: 11 mins, 0 pts, 1 to Second matchup: 22 mins, 10 pts (5/7 2P), 4 reb (1 off), 1 to, 1 blk |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Wisconsin didn't have starting guard Bronson Koenig for the Michigan win at Crisler due to a calf injury that he returned from the following game. The Badgers will still be shorthanded, however, as backup guard Khalil Iverson, who scored ten points in 22 minutes in the last matchup, went home after a death in the family. Iverson's absence didn't seem to hurt the Badgers much in the semifinal against Northwestern; they won 76-48 in a game they led by as many as 35 before extended garbage time. Only one Badger played more than 30 minutes, which could provide an edge as Michigan heads into their fourth game in four days; Wisconsin is on their third in three days after earning a double bye.
Koenig's return has been welcome. He scored 16+ in five straight games before an off-day against the Wildcats. He mostly sticks to the perimeter, where he's a lethal shooter. While he's not a high-volume assist guy, he takes care of the ball.
Center Ethan Happ remains the go-to guy. Oddly, he didn't play very well in Wisconsin's win over Michigan, then got off to a scorching start in Crisler before frequent double-teams and foul trouble limited his second-half production. Happ is an excellent post scorer, gifted passer, and a dominant interior defender, though Moe Wagner scored 21 the last time around by drawing him out of his comfort zone. Happ went just 2-for-14 from the free-throw line in the four games before the semifinal, then drained 8 of 11 against Northwestern. He's below 50% on the season, but he's capable of much better. Fouling him is still not a bad idea in the right circumstances.
Power forward Nigel Hayes, who will draw DJ Wilson, still hasn't lived up to the potential he showed as a secondary option in his sophomore season. He's still an effective rebounder, defender, and passer, but his shooting splits in conference play weren't pretty: 45/24/57 (2P%/3P%/FT%). Wilson and Hayes essentially cancelled each other out at Crisler, but this matchup could have much greater importance this time around.
Zak Showalter and Vitto Brown round out the starting lineup. Showalter has been very efficient while only using the occasional possession. He's at his best as a spot-up shootert. Brown has been the opposite type of player this season: high-usage and low-efficiency. He attempts more threes than twos but is shooting only 30% from beyond the arc, and he turns the ball over a lot for a player who spends that much time floating around the perimeter. He remains a good defender and rebounder, at least.
Perimeter-oriented sharpshooter D'Mitrik Trice, brother of Travis, is the primary option off the bench. With Iverson out, the rest of the rotation is comprised of players who use scant few possessions on offense: guards Jordan Hill and Brevin Pritzl and stretch four Alex Illakainen.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only stats.
The Badgers don't play a pretty brand of offensive basketball. They finished ninth in the conference in two-point percentage, tenth in three-point percentage, and 13th in free-throw percentage; I can't help but note they run most of their offense through the post. They've salvaged the seventh-best offensive efficiency in the Big Ten with offensive rebounds and turnover avoidance. The offense has perked up of late, but it hasn't been the ruthlessly efficient attack we're used to seeing from the Badgers.
Wisconsin's defense is the best in the conference. Happ creates a ton of chaos in the paint; he's eighth in block rate, first in steal rate, and positionally sound without committing many fouls—a unicorn of a defender. With Happ, Hayes, and Brown forming a formidable last line of defense, conference opponents made only 42.1% of their twos (lowest mark in the B1G) and turned the ball over often. There's some susceptibility on the perimeter; B1G opponents made 40.4% of their threes, albeit on the fourth-lowest rate of attempts.
THE KEYS
Keep the frontcourt battle even. Slowing Happ is clearly the top priority, and Michigan had done that pretty well in three of the four halfs of basketball they've played against Wisconsin this year. The exception was an 18-point, 8-for-9 first half at Crisler before the Wolverines adjusted by doubling in the post. If Moe Wagner and DJ Wilson can match the productivity of Happ and Hayes, Michigan will be in good shape. To do so, they'll need to stay out of foul trouble, knock down outside shots, and force some turnovers in the post.
Early offense. Wisconsin's halfcourt defense is tough to crack, so Michigan should take the opportunities they can to run out and get some buckets early in the clock. Forcing turnovers off double-teams is one way to do this; Michigan has also been very effective pushing the tempo after defensive rebounds.
DEATH TO BACKBOARDS. I shouldn't need to explain this.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Wisconsin by 1.
Michigan has been able to get away with iffy three-point shooting through the course of this tournament, but if tired legs lead to more of the same against Wisconsin, the Badgers interior attack may prove too much to overcome.
ELSEWHERE
UMHoops preview. Quinn pens another must-read, this time with Xavier Simpson talking about what it's been like to sit and wait behind Derrick Walton:
"That's Derrick's game," Simpson said. "It's not that he's added stuff. He's always had it. He was doing that stuff -- the head fakes, the cross-over, the pull-up -- he did it in open-gym (workouts). Now it's just that he's finally bringing it out. He's showing everyone."
Simpson said all this with an apparent dash of post-traumatic stress from those duels.
March 11th, 2017 at 11:57 PM ^
Can the football team do this next fall?
March 12th, 2017 at 12:03 AM ^
It tops the Dakich gifs
March 12th, 2017 at 12:54 AM ^
Pretty sure that's a walkon and not X, unless he grew a goatee mid game.
Yep, although I believe X did have a pretty great bench celebration earlier in the year where he squatted down and stomped around. Did something weird with his arms too.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:13 AM ^
• First generation college student
• Recipient of the Gates Millennium Scholarship, which covers his education through to a Ph.D. program
Daaaaaannnggg
March 12th, 2017 at 12:10 AM ^
Condolences to Khalil and his family. Hurts to lose your dad. I speak from experience. Prayers for strength young man.
member that wasn't quite that close. Losing your dad...I went through that one too but at a much older and more mature age; it was profound then, to lose someone so important to you at such a young age, that's tough. Prayers for him and his family...
March 12th, 2017 at 12:11 AM ^
against Northwestern. Hopefully we can do better than they did stopping him.
March 12th, 2017 at 12:18 AM ^
March 12th, 2017 at 12:26 AM ^
I'm a bit worried here. Wisconsin has been great in the tournament so far, is far better rested, and was a hard game for Michigan in both previous matchups. The "tired legs" issue isn't just a throwaway--Michigan has gotten away with only meh shooting this week with terrific, gritty play in other places, but a dry spell here could be a serious problem.
Then again, maybe things just keep going. Who knows? It will be fun to find out.
especially knowing how much they've given to win the last three. Perhaps Wisconsin's slow-down offense will be a benefit to us today.
March 12th, 2017 at 11:08 AM ^
The upside to his foul trouble is that Wagner should still be fresh. He only logged 17 minutes against Purdue and 18 against Minnesota. His stroke looked pretty good against Minnesota when he was in. Lets hope the back issue was a one day only thing and he can avoid getting baited into bad fouls by Happ.
March 12th, 2017 at 12:27 PM ^
The 3s fell yesterday at the same percentage in the first and second half (and a pretty good 30-something percent both halves). It's an anaerobic exercise to jump shoot. We may not shoot great because Wisconsin is very good at defending threes.
But if the defense is a step slow, they'll eat us alive. That's what really seemed to go in the second half yesterday when we got tired. Not sure how much of that was coasting with a lead, but Mo literally just stood there a couple times and let Lynch blow right by him. The guards just let Mason get to the hole and hoped for help. Some of that is Mason being good, some of it was us being tired, it looked like.
I do think Wisconsin is a better matchup for us since they don't have slashers. I would actually see what we can do one-on-one with Happ so save some energy and don't have to scramble around doubling. If we start out like the game at Crisler, then double him in the second half (or earlier if he gets them a big lead in the first half).
Going away from Kenpom would be a jinx and cause the team to lose. Don't even joke about going away from Kenpom!
March 12th, 2017 at 12:28 PM ^
but we all did foro Purdue and we were correct.
Give Wisconsin credit for finding these big men, seems like a good solid tradition of late. Happ was out there for anyone to get as the 149th player. 175 lbs out of HS, up to 230.
http://247sports.com/Player/Ethan-Happ-21766?Institution=10585
Gotta make Happ defend in space and get him in foul trouble. His whole game can't be just getting in a nice rhythm under his own post. He needs something to think about all game.
Wagner needs to stay out of early foul trouble.
Do they even have an over-the-back rule in Europe? Because that's where most of his fouls come from . . . over the back and bumping guys from behind.
He needs to stay off of guys' backs. He can't keep on picking up those cheap fouls early in the first half.
We need him on offense to keep Happ honest throughout the game.
March 12th, 2017 at 12:33 PM ^
undisciplined defender and rebounder. Reaches, pokes, goes over the back. And sometimes it works so he keeps doing it. My guess is that he was so much better and longer than everyone in Germany that he could get away with it a lot. Now that he's playing bigger guys with position it doesn't work often enough to do it. And our coaches have either continued to allow it or haven't been able to get it totally out of his game. If he's been doing it all his life, it's hard to stop.
He also gets called for a lot of cheap ones, but he's the opposite of what you'd call "crafty" or "sneaky". He reaches and makes a non-foul look like a foul sometimes, if you know what I mean. Definitely gets victimized but obviously puts himself in those situations.
Gonna be tough to win this one. I can't call it.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:36 AM ^
but what is Seth calling it?
March 12th, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^
March 12th, 2017 at 10:25 AM ^
March 12th, 2017 at 10:56 AM ^
So What. Whisky plays ugly. first to 60 wins
M to Win it all.
March 12th, 2017 at 11:15 AM ^
March 12th, 2017 at 11:24 AM ^
is fascinating.
March 12th, 2017 at 11:43 AM ^
The airplane adventure and three previous games might take their toll toay. Also, if the Gophers pretty much had their way in the paint --- both with the bigs and the guards getting to the hoop ---what's Happ gonna do? Without doubt the Badgers first offensive option will be to get the ball into Ethan. I don't know that they have the guards to penetrate to the hoop like the Gophers did, but maybe with Happ in there they don't need them.
Mo, please practice body/arm/hand control and stay on the floor. DJ, we need you to step up, big guy. Derrick and Zack, just continue to do what you're doin', and same with you MAAR. All of you and the rest of the team have already overachieved, and we're all very proud of you.Go Blue.
March 12th, 2017 at 11:49 AM ^
I'm just happy they got this far. I'm not a downer, but 4 games in 4 nights is going to wear anyone out, and Wisconsin has had an easier run of it given the blowouts and the competition they've faced.
One thing I did notice, if you needed any more evidence ESPN is garbage, is their write-up that says Michigan is "playing their way to an at-large bid" in this game. I assume they mean a better seeding, because you'd have to be insane to think 23-11 Michigan isn't in a tournament that apparently has 19-15 Vandy and 18-14 MSU in as well.
March 12th, 2017 at 12:40 PM ^
that number 3 line with Baylor, FSU, UCLA and likely Oregon looks FAR more manageable than Arizona, Duke, Kentucky/UNC and Louisville on the 2 line.
Win and we're a 6, lose and we're a 7. Pretty simple, boys. Let's do it!
If we're currently a 6 (as Lunardi suggests), would losing to a top 20 team really cause us to drop a seed line?
(If we're a 7, I'd agree.)
March 12th, 2017 at 12:50 PM ^
Win or lose, they will be a bit more rested for the first round and I expect them to come out like they have been playing. It's been a great season and Beilein deserves a TON of credit! And of course Walton a sheer stud.
GO BLUE!!
...i almost always expect us to win.
but i won't be too disappointed if we lose this one. wisconsin is beatable, but four games in four days is so tough. if you'd offered me a final berth on thursday morning, i would've taken it in a heartbeat.
that said - good guys 74, thug city 71. walton resplendent, again.
On Bracket Matrix, there is one guy - this one - who has us as a 9 seed. Boo this man.
Four sites (out of 115) think we're an 8 seed. Boo them as well.
Most of the rest have us as a 7 but there are quite a few calling us a 6.
You said that they will have played four games in four days, while Wisconsin will have played just three. You forgot their game on Thursday afternoon when they beat death at Willow Run. Given the stress of that incident, it should count as their first of five games in five days. Godspeed our Wolverine team! May their legs be with them and their energy overflow!
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