Michigan opens as 12pt fav over NWestern

Submitted by I Like Burgers on

So this is interesting...betonline has listed Michigan as a 10pt favorite over Northwestern.  It opened at 12 points, but dropped pretty much right away.  

Guess the score is going to be 13-3?

MGoBoard

Medic

October 4th, 2015 at 4:02 PM ^

I'm not sure if anyone else has noticed but Stanford has been blowing the doors off of their opponents since the Northwestern loss. That NW defense is absolutely legit and being on the road won't affect them at all imo. UM's kicker is also suspect while NW's is pretty good.

I would give Michigan a 3 point edge at home but that's about it. It's going to be close.

 

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WolverineHistorian

October 4th, 2015 at 4:32 PM ^

Ball State led them at halftime. Had about equal stats on the ground (182) and through the air (178). NU came back in the third quarter but could do nothing in the 4th quarter allowing Ball State to come back and close within 5.

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alum96

October 4th, 2015 at 4:53 PM ^

Teams have letdowns in college last I checked.  Taking the exception to the rule rather than the rule to prove a point usually does not work.  They shut down Duke, Stanford, and Minn - 3 decent teams.  Held a baby seal to 0 pts as well in the 4th game.  Ball State was the exception.

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Franz Schubert

October 4th, 2015 at 5:35 PM ^

Have very limited offenses, so Stanford is the exception. I've watched NW and they have nothing on offense and will be shut down by this defense. Hear me now and believe me later, NW has a good defense but will not come into Michigan stadium with a freshman QB and score more than 10 points on Michigan. Durkin is going to have his head swimming.

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RainbowSprings

October 4th, 2015 at 4:06 PM ^

Was expecting at most UM by 3 (basically homefield advantge). VegasInsider now has the spread dropping to 9. Still a surprise, since they list De'Veon as questionable.

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xtramelanin

October 4th, 2015 at 4:07 PM ^

there. or to put it another way, take the cats and the points.  think it will be a dogfight.  our D is doing very well, but so is the cats' D - look what they did to a good stanford team.  our offense is okay, but far from lights-out.   should be a fun game to watch.

 

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BlueMk1690

October 4th, 2015 at 4:08 PM ^

because we're still quite a bit under the national radar. People don't trust Michigan as of now. It feels like Northwestern gets a lot more love than we do, so one wouldn't expact us to be big favorites.

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Franz Schubert

October 4th, 2015 at 4:24 PM ^

Realize how good this Michigan team is. Best defense in the country, and a running game that averages 200 yards a game. Throw in the best coaching staff in the country at home and you get at least a 10 point win. Remember the BYU line was thought to be way too high?

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LSAClassOf2000

October 4th, 2015 at 4:14 PM ^

This is where you see Vegas steering the money a bit - people might take that bet on Northwestern. What's funny to me this time around is that if you used the Sagarin ratings for Michigan and Northwestern as line predictor (which some people do), you would get 6.84 (so, a TD - 88.01-83.88 then add the 2.71 HFA predictor) in favor of Michigan, which is actually what I thought it would have been before I saw this thread

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vablue

October 4th, 2015 at 4:17 PM ^

Could this be purely a function of the fan base? These lines are based on how people will place bets, I would have to believe the much larger Michigan fan base had an affect on this number.

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Franz Schubert

October 4th, 2015 at 4:43 PM ^

If it were that simple then betting against teams with the biggest fanbases would invariably give you more appealing spreads and increase your winnings. This is not the case. It's a nice myth perpetually repeated on these blogs. Studies have proven this false. The opening line is actually what the oddsmakers think will happen and the lines may be tweaked after based on action but it's not as simple as many think. Even if one fanbase was much larger does not mean they would be homers and throw their money away and furthermore for every homer there is a rival fan that might bet the opposite.

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Moonlight Graham

October 4th, 2015 at 4:19 PM ^

I love how we're winning all these games by almost the exact same score/margin following a generally similar template. Stifling defense always; sometimes slow start; good running game, sometimes need to bust a few outside; missed long bombs (grrrrr); stellar special teams; never really out of control of the game at any point, always between 28-35 points to 0-7.



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