OT: Mike & Mike: Make 1 out of 10 half court shots for $20M or 2 years in jail
I was listening to Mike & Mike on my way to work this morning (if you don't like Mike & Mike, you can stop reading). They were throwing out hypothetically that if you were given 10 half court shots and all you had to do was make 1 for $20 million but if you miss them all you go to jail for 2 years, would you do it? I think I would have to try this. Thoughts?
EDIT: I didn't hear how long you would have to practice, but lets just say this is a one-time chance and you would have to do this spur of the moment if you wanted a shot at it.
EDIT2: myrtlebeachmaizenblue informed us that they said it's a white collar jail, no risk of harm with conjugal visits. Also, that is $20 million net, taxes paid for you.
These odds seem very low. Even as just a guy who played in high school and helps coach youth teams, unguarded which I would assume I would be, I can almost always make a half courter given 5 to 10 shots. And 20 million is life changing money.
However, 2 years is a significant portion of your life. We are not guaranteed any amount of time on earth and giving up two years seems such a great risk. Yes, without a family, I could just get an online degree and workout, but I still don't think that it would be worth it.
Really, the question is, what do you value more: two of your prime years in your 20s or a chance to make $20 million.
It is a really tough call especially because I think I would probably make it, but in the end, I already enjoy my life. I am not risking 2 years of it.
but I'll play along because I heard the bit as I was driving to work.
No Effing Way would I do that. 2 yrs? Over a bet like that? Nuh uh. The loss isn't just the $2M, its losing the ability to make what you make now and the 2 yrs. I'm not THAT good of a shot.
It's $20 million, not $2 million. You would be set for life if you made 1 shot.
mis-typed. 20M...
You would be set for life if you made one shot, but you have to consider the very very VERY real possibility that you don't make even one.
EDIT: 6 months in jail, I'd consider it.
spent in a month.
You would be set for life financially, but it wouldn't be a guaranteed improvement in other aspects of your life. Whereas missing all the shots and winding up in jail for 2 years would ruin you financially, as well have the potential to destroy your relationships, living situations, future jobs/social connections, ability to interact with others appropriately, etc... The pros in no way exceed the cons here. I love money, but I would not do this.
You would be set for life if you made 1 shot.
Well, you should be, but there are plenty of athletes/celebrities who've found ways to blow through even more than that.
Where am I going to jail?
Edited OP. You wouldn't know where you would be going to jail.
A pound you in the ass prison? I don't know why that would change things for him.
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I would wind up on Death Row.
Give me 20 shots, and I might do it. But not 10. I'm happy enough with my life right now that I don't need the $20 million enough to risk two years of jail time.
I'm currently in a dinner rut. Those Moms/Dads who cook every night can sympathize.
I know that feeling well. Breakfast for dinner is always my go-to when I'm out of ideas.
lately the wife and I have been using 60% of our food budget right on the 1st and creating 20-25 crockpot meals... it is easy as sunday morning and has brought some new recipes into our lives.
jdon
the pessimist in me but that's 20 million DOLLARS right?
I don't think you have to be THAT rock bottom. If you were a good long range shooter in HS, your percentage from half court is probably around 10-15%. Lets say 10%. The probability of missing all 10 shots would be .9^10 = 34.8%. That gives you an expected earnings of $6.97M.
Now let's look at expect losses. So, you lose all earnings for 2 years, and then lets make the assumption that your income will lag behind your current expected income by 50% once out of prison. If you make $80k, you lose $160k right off the bat, and then $40k annually for 25 years (let's ignore things like wage growth and ROI to keep things simpler). ($160k + ($40k *25)) * 0.348 = -$403k
Now your expected earnings are down to $6.57M - math wiz's let me know if I'm way off base. Other factors are difficult to quantify: what (negative) value do you put on prison time, how much damage do you expect it will do to your relations, how risk adverse are you, how much do you value the flexibility that having $20M dropped on you will give you? The prison time is pretty huge, but would it outweigh the expected $6.5M?
I think people do these calculations instinctively, and there are a lot of decent basketball players with a meh career/life that would take that bet.
No way you are 10% chance to hit a half court shot in 10 tries.
Especially if you're starting out cold, with no preparation as the OP suggests in his first edit. It could take you 2, 3, maybe even 4 shots just to determine the best motion and hopefully get the your range dialed in. Bottom line, without preparation, you have pretty much 0% chance of maknig that shot based on any kind of skill, you're just heaving up a prayer.
Being a good shooter is irrelevant. Half-court shots are outside of ANYONE's natural shooting range. You are chucking up prayers from half-court. You can certainly practice that specific shot, but it is completely unrelated to your regular shot. You aren't going to sit there at half-court and put up regular jumpers.
I would be shocked if 3pt shooting and half court shooting were not strongly correlated. A lot of the characteristics that make someone a good 3pt shooter are useful shooting half court shots.
Given that a lot of people are good at 3-point shots but no one is very good at halfcourt shots, I don't see how they are correlated. Heaving up a shot from the timeline is a pretty different kind of motion than shooting a 3.
I think there is a level of hand-eye-coordination and ability to perform under pressure that would mean there is some correlation, however, I do not think that most people without practice are hitting anywhere near 10%. Maybe 3-5%.
i'm highly skeptical at shots 1 and 10 being equally likely
by like shot 7 you're gonna be sweating balls and the basketball will basically be slipping right out of your hands
probably 5 or 6 shots for most people until the pressure is too much to overcome
a standard mgocriminal who is looking at doing time anyway? it'd be like a free ticket in that case. so for the 'institutionally' experienced amongst us, the answer would be a resounding, 'why the heck not?!, and 'give me that ball!'
Do I think I could make 1 of 10 right now with nothing riding on it? I think I could reasonably say I'd come close, if not actually do it.
With 2 years of jail riding on it? No way that ball is getting anywhere near the hoop.
....is a step closer to jail and it's only 10 steps to the gate. You would be a wreck by the 6th shot.
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Interesting.
People would gladly do it if the consequences weren't so great. Which demonstrates an aversion toward loss as opposed to risk. Because if given 10 chances, the odds of making one are theoretically pretty good given the payoff.
Do you have the numbers to back up your stance? You say the odds are 'pretty good'?. What does that mean?
generally looking online it looks like the odds are around 50-1 for an average Joe taking the half court shot. Actually reasonable odds considering the half ice shot in a 4" slot is something like 5000-1. I am with most of you, don't know if I would risk my liberty for a 50-1 shot. Pressure would be on too, cameras, people wanting you to miss.
Because if given 10 chances, the odds of making one are theoretically pretty good given the payoff.Not sure I follow. How does the payoff influence the odds? Are people more likely to make the shot if $20M is riding on it than if it's for nothing?
I wouldn't do it. Time is the one resource you can never get back. Money is. Don't sacrifice time.
$20 million basically means you almost never have to waste time doing anything you don't want to do again. No more mowing the lawn, no more doing your taxes, no more working a job you don't like, no more taking anything but the quickest, most direct, transportation methods. Money can buy tons of time. That's why this is a tough question and the answer for most people is probably highly dependent on how much time they currently waste doing things they don't like to do. I love my job and my life so no way I'd do it, but I do realize I'm fortunate that way.
Thanks for the info. Added to OP.
$20 mil-after taxes?
Sons of Anarchy jail time or Marty Kahn I have to work in the garden jail time?
Not enough $ and too few shots (even for a decent athlete).
All comes down to combined family income (20 years of replacement income for most of us I imagine) and if you have children.
No amount of $ takes me away from my family