Post-Entry Outlook: Defense
Previously: Offense.
DEFENSIVE END
A paring of Derrick Moore and Josiah Stewart might not be particularly far off the legendary Hutchinson-Ojabo pairing from 2021. Stewart and Moore were already Michigan's top edge guys per PFF, and they were more or less indistinguishable from the departed Braiden McGregor and Jaylen Harrell in UFR grading.
Neither was exactly a star in 2023, but it's not hard to extrapolate them from very good rotation players into stars with another year of development They had pass rush win rates of 17% (Stewart) and 15% (Moore), which was good for 18th and 43rd, respectively, amongst 251 P5 edges with at least 100 snaps. Meanwhile, you may remember some grousing in this space about Stewart not holding the edge in a couple early games but once he got that figured out he was an excellent run defender.
Also: the way Michigan ran its pass rush last year probably put a cap on just how highly they could grade out. Guys like Chop Robinson and Bralen Trice are sent off the edge over and over; Michigan played a ton of games up front to take advantage of their DT's rush and a lot of snaps had DEs diving inside in ways that aren't likely to get an individual pass rush win but could, say, lead to six sacks of Jalen Milroe.
Moore in particular has a flight path that makes you expect a first round draft selection after 2024: highly touted recruit, contributes as true freshman, basically interchangeable with a draftable senior as a true sophomore, ignition time. Stewart will be entering year four and probably doesn't have the ceiling Moore does but he doesn't have to get a whole lot better to vie for All-American-level output.
The main question is depth. There is no shame in getting locked behind Michigan's elite foursome last year but it does mean we have vanishingly little data on any of the guys vying for rotation snaps been Moore and Stewart. TJ Guy did look solid in about 80 garbage time snaps a year ago.
If the main problem here is "who is the backup anchor" I think it'll be okay.
[After THE JUMP: mmmm DTs]
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
the boys are back [Paul Sherman]
Copy and paste the vibe from DE except increment it a couple notches. Whereas it's reasonable to expect one or both of the DEs to gussy up into a coveted draft prospect, Mason Graham is already the highest-graded returning DT in college football, per PFF. The main thing preventing him from scraping Mo Hurst territory is that Michigan had the luxury of rotating him. Kenneth Grant wasn't far off, checking in with an 81 grade that's behind only Graham and Kentucky DT Deone Walker amongst second-year players nationally. These guys are the odds-on favorites to be the best DT pairing in college football this year.
And, unlike DE, there is a clear third option: Rayshaun Benny, who will be a redshirt junior next year and clocked 244 snaps this year. Benny was slightly disappointing early in the season but finished on a tear; unfortunately he went out early in the Alabama game and could not attempt to extend a four-game hot streak to six.
Things get murky beyond that. Cameron Brandt and Trey Pierce both got 50 garbage time snaps; I was hoping they'd pick up one of those Ivy transfers in the portal so they could have another year where they went four or five deep with good players. They could not, but it'll probably be fine. One of Graham's biggest strong points as a recruit was his endurance, and after a couple of years with Ben Herbert he should be able to go most of the way in most games. UFR records will be challenged.
LINEBACKER
[Bryan Fuller]
Pick two of Ernest Haussman, Jimmy Rolder, and Jaishawn Barham. Or, more probably, pick all three. This is a fairly good situation considering Michigan just lost two guys to the draft who had been starting together for three straight years. Hausmann picked up just under 350 snaps, most of them meaningful, whilst spotting the starters. He did not feel out of place, especially as a true sophomore, and reasonable improvement—more likely because this will be only his second year in the system—gets him to a good Big Ten starter.
Rolder didn't do much in 2023 other than have an infamous cameo against OSU but he had ~150 snaps as a true freshman and probably would have had the Hausmann role if Michigan hadn't imported him. Instead he had the luxury of a redshirt. The coaches attitude towards him is encouraging enough to believe he'll be a player.
Meanwhile, Barham started for Maryland from the drop and had a standout freshman year but backslid a bit in 2023. Still, he's a guy with a ton of experience for a third year player and should at least be decent.
Between the three contenders Michigan should find one plus player and one solid one as a median. The ceiling feels higher than the floor with two guys who started as true freshmen in the Big Ten.
CORNERBACK
Two big losses in Mike Sainristil and Josh Wallace, but Will Johnson is a hell of start. With Ja'Den McBurrows the heir apparent at nickel, CB2 will again be the primary worry on Michigan's defense. Last year they had a bunch of true freshmen, a gritty walk-on, a promising converted athlete, and Wallace; this year it will be impingent on one of the second-year guys to step up. Cam Calhoun and Amorion Walker already bolted for greener pastures so this looks like a battle between DJ Waller and Jyaire Hill. Waller was the guy (along with Walker) getting first-half snaps against the likes of Purdue; Hill was the guy with the most hype as a recruit at the position on the field where recruiting hype most directly translates to success. (Michigan also has more veteran options in Myles Pollard and Kody Jones, so they're not entirely dependent on the two second-year guys.)
You can't be as confident Michigan will find a plug and play guy here as other spots because they did not rotate willy-nilly like they did elsewhere, the occasional Waller snap excepted. The swing position on the D is CB2.
SAFETY
Michigan's fourth S just casually PBUing throws to Rome Odunze [Barron]
Michigan's running it back with all four of Rod Moore, Makari Paige, Quinten Johnson, and Keon Sabb. Next question.
Actually, the question I have: will Michigan attempt to kick down one of the four to nickel? They have safeties coming out their ears, so it would make sense to kick the tires on a couple—likely Moore and Johnson—in case the CB2 spot is a little wonky and sliding out McBurrows is their best option.
UPSHOT
The 2023 defense part two. I expect a downgrade a linebacker because the new group won't be as good in space; I expect a downgrade at CB because going from Dax Hill to Mike Sainristil to Also As Good As Those Guys ain't happening and Josh Wallace turned out to be a unicorn.
Offsetting that: the DL play could be better next year. I think year-older versions of Grant, Graham, Moore, and Stewart may than offset the loss of McGregor, Harrell, Jenkins, and Goode. The question is: if first quarter 2024 Derrick Moore is better than 2023 Moore/McGregor, what about fourth quarter Derrick Moore? I think the four individuals starting will be better than the best four individuals you could pull off the 2023 line, but going from nine obvious playables to ~6 is slightly uncomfortable. I'd still bet on 2024, though.
Add in the single greatest safety room in the history of this blog and the main question is wither Jesse Minter? If they can keep Minter another year there's no reason to believe this defense can't be in the ballpark of last year's. Second best of the millennium again… no, probably not. Top five nationally? Book it.
January 22nd, 2024 at 8:23 PM ^
Turned comments on.
January 22nd, 2024 at 9:38 PM ^
Unnecessary. There's nothing else to add...a MONSTER starting group minus CB2 and a 2nd team we are going to be dying to hear about all spring.
January 22nd, 2024 at 8:37 PM ^
The defense, although very good next year, probably won’t look as good statistically because our offense probably won’t be as good.
January 22nd, 2024 at 9:57 PM ^
Is that how it works? Somebody should tell Iowa.
January 23rd, 2024 at 6:04 AM ^
Seven-minute drives are a defense's best friend.
January 23rd, 2024 at 8:24 AM ^
Sure, if you go by 1980s sabermetrics like ppg or ypg allowed. If the other team's offense is on the sideline, that's a great way to keep the overall scoring down. But it's 2024, and we now have things like ypp which measure what a defense does when it's on the field. And if you're not on the field often or long but give up a score every time, your ppg might not be bad but you're still losing games because your defense sucks.
January 23rd, 2024 at 8:40 AM ^
"And if you're not on the field often or long but give up a score every time, your ppg might not be bad but you're still losing games because your defense sucks"
If you are giving up a score every time how if your ppg staying low?
January 23rd, 2024 at 10:21 AM ^
By keeping your offense on the field. This is the logic behind "the best defense is a slow, plodding offense".
For example, let's say your team allows 5 points per drive. This is a bad defense.
- If both teams get ten (meaningful) drives apiece, you're allowing 50 points. Objectively terrible.
- OTOH, if your offense stays on the field and reduces that to four drives, that's 20 points. Hey, that's pretty good, right? In modern football, holding opponents to 20 is fine.
Anyway, that's the argument.
Thing is, the way an offense does that is with fewer, longer drives. You don't run a seven-minute drive by hitting an 80-yard TD pass and then get to go again; you have to give the ball back. Outside turnovers, the two offenses get an equal number of drives, whether that's four or ten. If you extend your drives, you get fewer drives yourself to score points. So paired with a 5pppa defense, the offense needs a TD almost every drive (which would be flat-out elite) to avoid losing a ton of games -- just as you'd expect from a crappy defense.
Since pace alone doesn't translate to extra possessions, all you're doing is choosing between sludgefart or shootout. TBF that matters for things like variation and substitution, but "keep their offense off the field" isn't that sophisticated; it's strictly a badly flawed argument for ToP.
January 23rd, 2024 at 10:05 AM ^
Michigan also won't have Iowa's punter...
January 23rd, 2024 at 10:50 AM ^
Neither will they.
January 22nd, 2024 at 8:38 PM ^
If they retain Minter, their prospects for next year will be sky-high. Minter has proven he can get the best out of this talent, and even if the offense is shaky this defense can win a few borderline games.
Without him, it will depend a lot on who they hire and what the staff looks like. There should still be a pretty good floor - that DL should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage against most teams we will face, and that's a recipe for success.
January 23rd, 2024 at 8:24 AM ^
Minter is far and away the most important returnee. If he comes back or if John has yet another wunderkind that he will lend to Ann Arbor then we are challengers for the title again
Fwiw 247 just posted an article that said Minter was out recruiting so that is a step in the right direction
January 23rd, 2024 at 8:51 AM ^
Minter returning is huge and does his dad remain coaching the lbers or return to an analyst position? His dad was a really good dc and then became the head coach at UC back when they had zero interest in supporting football. He did a really good job at uc with what he had.
Should Jesse Minter leave I expect that Elston is our DC and or Clinkscale co-dc's. Unless there is another in the line to run this scheme? Idk, have to wonder though.
January 23rd, 2024 at 10:09 AM ^
Not like he can stop his job if he doesn't have another. Lots of coaches are recruiting up to the moment they take another job.
January 23rd, 2024 at 12:36 PM ^
Certainly does not mean he is staying which is why I went with "step in the right direction". It at least says he isn't hellbent on an NFL position. That was probably a given seeing as how most of his experience is in college
January 22nd, 2024 at 8:40 PM ^
Thanks Seth…and Brian. Very excited to read about next year’s D being as potent as this year’s National Champion D. Defense wins championships! Not being greedy here, just something to look forward to in my Go Blue dreams.
January 22nd, 2024 at 8:44 PM ^
I'm totally amazed that this article is so early before we know who the coach, coordinators, or even the strength coach will be. If Harbaugh leaves, the whole team has the right to go into the portal. Look what happened to Alabama. Isn't it premature to know who will be on the team?
January 22nd, 2024 at 8:48 PM ^
BPONE lives
January 22nd, 2024 at 10:52 PM ^
Alabama has lost 29. Washington has lost 23. Arizona has lost 21.
January 22nd, 2024 at 10:09 PM ^
Alabama lost, their coach retired, and they hired someone outside the Saban tree. Michigan won the national championship, and they have sufficient coaching to allow some continuity if Harbaugh leaves. They are not the same.
I appreciated the article for just telling us about how things look *right now*. “Do it now ‘cause tomorrow ain’t promised today.”
January 23rd, 2024 at 3:12 PM ^
Did you see the article about why Tennessee is worried Harbaugh will leave and then Alabama will load up on Michigan players?
January 23rd, 2024 at 6:07 AM ^
Another one can be written in the future should there be mass change. I was thrilled to see some quality content this morning.
January 22nd, 2024 at 8:45 PM ^
The qb in 2024 won't need to be a hero due to all the gentlemen mentioned in this article. These guys will be your best friends.
January 22nd, 2024 at 9:01 PM ^
This is great. Thank you. I like the look of the D and if JH, Minter and Moore all return I see no reason why we cannot repeat as national champs. Team unity continues to drive performance.
January 22nd, 2024 at 9:21 PM ^
I hope they rotate like crazy again. I think that was a huge benefit. Play 4 DEs, play 5 DTs. Doesnt have to be split down the middle like it was this past year, but a series here and there.
January 22nd, 2024 at 9:28 PM ^
I suspect that the inactivity on portal DTs has a lot to do with Trey Pierce. Thinking back to his recruiting profile and the flashes he showed in limited snaps, I’d bet on 2024 Pierce turning in a body of work that’s superior to 2023 Goode.
January 23rd, 2024 at 5:24 AM ^
What's the opposite of BPONE?
WMOPE?
January 23rd, 2024 at 8:09 AM ^
The opposite of BPONE is "Seth Fisher".
January 23rd, 2024 at 9:48 AM ^
For that purpose I invented an acronym like "Endless Nirvana of Positive Bliss" or ENOPB, which is BPONE spelled backwards.
It didn't take off.
January 23rd, 2024 at 1:08 PM ^
Very clever. But ENOPB doesn't exactly trip off the tongue.
January 22nd, 2024 at 10:10 PM ^
the DL play could be better next year
I think I just heard a bunch of M fans squeal like excited schoolkids.
January 23rd, 2024 at 5:24 AM ^
And a few fans in Columbus that cannot be heard at all.
January 22nd, 2024 at 10:41 PM ^
I just hope TJ Guy is a Dude.
Having absurd depth on the d-line just makes me feel all cozy inside.
January 23rd, 2024 at 5:28 AM ^
Hasn't he graded higher than expectations? Also he's gotta be 27 by now, so mistake free with sole tools and an urge to prove himself would be enough.
January 23rd, 2024 at 9:23 AM ^
So, not Just A Guy?
January 22nd, 2024 at 11:21 PM ^
I didn’t think QJ was expected to be back?
January 23rd, 2024 at 2:35 AM ^
I thought Berry looked good in the spring, and I think he was on the field early in the season (maybe even before Sabb) -- but then he got injured and disappeared. His recruiting profile said he had WR/CB athleticism. He has decent size. I wonder if he's an option to play nickel.
January 23rd, 2024 at 6:54 AM ^
I am pretty sure he got early snaps at the nickel, maybe in the spring game
Best case scenario for us is probably Berry ascending and playing nickel, McBurrows at CB2, and then the monster safety rotation
Either that, or Waller/Hill absolutely blowing up in fall camp
January 23rd, 2024 at 8:33 AM ^
"Best case scenario for us is probably Berry ascending and playing nickel, McBurrows at CB2, and then the monster safety rotation
Either that, or Waller/Hill absolutely blowing up in fall camp"
Why not all 3/4?
January 23rd, 2024 at 8:32 AM ^
It’s crazy to think that Michigan has 2 DEs that can be AA level, 2 DTs that can be AA level, 2 Safeties that can be AA level, and a CB that can be AA level, and those are without putting on the homer glasses. Throw in 2 LBs that will be somewhere on the all-b1g team, and the talent level of the starting defense is just crazy to think about considering where Michigan was 4 years ago.
Hoping McBurrows takes a big leap into a starting role as he did show a few flashes this past season, and hoping either one of the younger CBs steps up into playing at least as well as Wallace did.
Michigan is going to miss Mikey S., Barrett, and the depth of the 2023 defense for sure. If UM can field a competent top 25 offense that won’t set the defense up for failure constantly then the 2024 defense has a chance to be another all time great defense at Michigan.
January 23rd, 2024 at 9:24 AM ^
Cornerback and depth...to the portal! Maybe? Please? Sigh.
January 23rd, 2024 at 9:46 AM ^
I think between McB, Waller, Berry, Sabb, Jyaire we can find a very suitable combo for CB2 and Nickel. This actually doesn't worry me that much.
Brandyn Hillman should have the lights click here soon too.
January 23rd, 2024 at 9:54 AM ^
I hope Hillman sticks it out. I liked what I saw in the little bit he played early in the year. The downside of all of these guys coming back is that 2025 will have little to no returning experience at S.
January 23rd, 2024 at 9:57 AM ^
Here’s to hoping -nay, believing!- that 2023 Defense Part 2 is like “Godfather 2” and not “Exorcist 2”
January 23rd, 2024 at 1:17 PM ^
And definitely not like Godfather 3.
January 23rd, 2024 at 10:03 AM ^
Next year seems to be shaping up to by 2021 Pt 2 to me, right down to the elite DEs and the question mark at QB. Hopefully we get Minter back
January 23rd, 2024 at 10:13 AM ^
I think the four individuals starting will be better than the best four individuals you could pull off the 2023 line, but going from nine obvious playables to ~6 is slightly uncomfortable. I'd still bet on 2024, though.
It was such a luxury to be able to play these guys 30-40 snaps a game, and I think it's unrealistic to expect that we'll be just as good or better late in games. Hopefully we can develop enough quality depth to keep them in the 40-50 snaps range most of the time. One thing I noted before the OSU game is that their DL was very good but had no depth. The starters never came off the field. And sure enough, in the fourth quarter when we needed to possess the football, they couldn't get us off the field.
January 23rd, 2024 at 10:36 AM ^
I thought Pierce looked okay-ish when he got snaps this past year, I don't think it's unreasonable to think he could be a functional rotational option in 2024, especially with another year of Herbertization. Enow Etta is also DT-ish size, so with his recruiting pedigree maybe he's someone that can slide inside for some snaps? Either way, hopefully they get some leads and can get Brandt and Etta or someone else on the field a bit, too, to see what they can do.
I ask again if Jaydon Hood won't get a look at LB? Doom-squirrel recruiting profile, and when he got semi-meaningful snaps last year he also seemed playable.
The point on sliding Moore down to nickel and McBurrows to outside corner also seems like the floor of the secondary this year - not unlike where we thought we were part way through 2023 . Clink's got a good track record, so I gotta believe he'll turn one or two of the corners into usable pieces by midseason at least.
Two big things to think about here are:
1. Staying healthy - even our most optimistic takes will mean less rotation in 2024, these dudes need to stay healthy if they're going to terrorize like we hope they will.
2. Will the offense keep them off the field? The offense ate up a lot of ToP last year, between that and the defensive rotation, dudes didn't have to play too much. If our offense regresses severely, that means a lot more defensive snaps for fewer players which likely means more injuries.
January 23rd, 2024 at 10:49 PM ^
Mark me down for Trey Pierce as the sleeper to step up. Excellent leverage and his strength should greatly increase with a first offseason with Herbert.
Also suspect Hill might get some run at nickel if Waller inches ahead at CB2; Hill has the athleticism and willing tackler similar to Sainristil.
This defense could be equal to 2023, although depth could erode their effectiveness with such a tough schedule.
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