Upon Further Review 2023: Defense vs. Nebraska
Is this where we come to talk about the slants?
Usually we take care of some housekeeping first.
UFR GLOSSARY is here.
FORMATION NOTES: Nebraska used a lot of them with varied personnel. This fullback (#16, Janiran Bonner) is more of a 6'2"/220 running back so I counted him as a back, but he also lined up at TE and WR. Michigan responded to him with their 5-2 personnel.
There was also a 3-3-5 look from Michigan I called a 30 stack.
SUBSTITUTION NOTES: The starters were done after 20-something snaps in this one, with Grant limited to just 17. Harrell and Colson were regulars while the starters were in—both Harrell and Stewart were on the field for obvious passing downs. Michigan was also playing around with different secondary configurations like +Sabb (Sainristil at CB, Moore at Nk), and +CB (Wallace at Nk). Other than that it was the usual rotations before backup time, which they used to rep Wallace and Moore in the slots with one-high looks. Amorion Walker returned and got a few snaps at CB.
Now the slants?
I haven't posted the charting yet.
You're going to make me scroll through all that gibberish?
You could just scroll down to the Neck Sharpies. Or Brian's game column for that matter.
Gibberish, then slants.
And a jump.
[After THE JUMP: Gibberish, slants, more gibberish.]
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
O25 | 1st | 10 | I-Twins Z-Fly | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 2 off | Run | Power | Grant | 1 | -0.59 | |
This is just comprehensive. Grant(+2) swims around a downblock attempt and eats the puller, who was planning on a B gap. Jenkins(+1) stood up a double long enough for Hausmann(+1) to come around behind him. The two tackle together. Benny(+1) got around his downblock too. | ||||||||||||
O26 | 2nd | 9 | Empty 3x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Eagle | 1 press | Pass | 4 | Slant | McGregor | INT | -4.55 |
"A chance to be in Nebraska lore." McGregor(+2) gets up and bats this attempted slant. Anybody's ball, Grant(+3) finds it and catches it away from his body like a future Harbaugh tight end. Behind this, Neb is trying to fit in a slant under Sainristil before Barrett(+1) arrives--Barrett recognizes it's a tip drill and takes down the slot receiver, thus excluding him from our impromptu game of 500. Heady. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Interception. 7-0. 8 min 1st Q. Grant is at +5 already. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Ace Tight H-Cross | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 2 off | Run | Toss Sweep | Goode | 1 | -0.59 | |
Stretch blocking and Goode(+2) and Jenkins(+1) blows it up by getting across their blockers. Benny(+0.5) gets playside of a tackle so there's no cutback and all the LBs are clean and present, though superfluous. | ||||||||||||
O26 | 2nd | 9 | Gun 2x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | Pass | 3 | Hitch | Stewart | 14 | 1.91 |
Drop 8 and leave this wide open as Stewart(-2, cov-2) abandons the top of his zone and leaves this wide open. D-Mo(+0.5) was beating Corcoran but three-man rush and first read open. RPS-1. Discussed on Neck Sharpies (drawn up). | ||||||||||||
O40 | 1st | 10 | I-Form | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Under | 2 fld | Run | Load Option | Jenkins | 2 | -0.53 | |
Nebraska has numbers as a TE steps down and Barrett(-1) gets locked out by taking a step upfield. RPS-1. Jenkins(+2) plants Corc in the backfield and rides him. Harrell(+1) has set up in the QB's path and in position to break on a pitch so Haarberg has nowhere to run but into Jenkins. Johnson(+0.5) was the guy this was going to and dodges the fullback to even the numbers. Can't play this any better. | ||||||||||||
O42 | 2nd | 8 | Gun Twins | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 off | Run | Split Zone | Stewart | 3 | -0.53 | |
D-Mo(+1) slams the backside shut despite a combo doing a good job on Goode(-1) so this has to go to a frontside gap where Benny(+2) and Stewart(+2) both wrenched by their blockers. Barrett(+0.5) kept himself clean and was available to help. | ||||||||||||
O45 | 3rd | 5 | Gun Trips Bunch RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Eagle C | 1 bdy | Pass | 3 | Slant | D.Moore | 34 | 3.18 |
Second play I talked about in Neck Sharpies (drawing). M shows pressure and brings the DTs plus Colson while dropping both DEs. D-Mo(-2) and Sainristil(-2, cov-3) both bite on a pump fake to nobody in the flat and let this slant they were supposed to be bracketing a free path to the top of the N. Jenkins(+1, PR+1) was supplying pressure so the flat was unthrowable anyways. Some sympathy for Sainristil because he's supposed to have help. Much running ensues. At the bottom of the screen Stewart(-0.5) also misplayed his bracket. | ||||||||||||
M21 | 1st | 10 | Ace TTB Z-Fly | 4-2-5 | 404 Tite | 2 off | Run | End Around | Moore | 4 | -0.03 | |
Basically WR power--Tommi Hill at F back jets out front followed by a pulling guard who's supposed to get Moore(+1), playing nickel, who hangs outside until his quarry arrives and shoots into his legs Peppers-style to make the guard useless. Colson(+1) two-gapped a TE to force this to go to the edge. | ||||||||||||
M17 | 2nd | 6 | Gun Str | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 press | Penalty | False Start | n/a | (-5) | -0.45 | |
This was going to be an RPO to the flat that Sabb was lining up. Neb bailed out by their left side jumping early. RPS+1. Hat-1. | ||||||||||||
M22 | 2nd | 11 | Empty 3x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | Pass | 4 | TE Out | Colson | 7 | 0.23 |
Refs-1 miss Corc moving early again. Stunt might be getting Harrell(+0.5) in but this is a quick out. Cov push. | ||||||||||||
M15 | 3rd | 4 | Ace Twins H-Jet | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Under | 1 press | Run | Jet Sweep | Harrell | 3 | -0.14 | |
Same play but this time it goes to the F (who's listed on the roster as a 220-lb FB). Jenkins(+1) steps around his downblock, misses the tackle but delayed the guy. Grant(+1) also swam around an attempted double, which is irrelevant to the play but sweet. What is relevant to the play is Harrell(+1, tackling+1) set up a TE in the backfield and comes off to start roping this guy down with an assist from Sabb(+1) flying down from on high. Ballcarrier gets knocked back but stays on his feet and tries to advance the ball before Wallace(+0.5) brings him down, is lucky they gave him forward progress instead of making it 4th and a long 2. | ||||||||||||
M12 | 4th | 1 | Goal Line | 5-2-4 | Goal Line | n/a | Run | QB Belly | McGregor | 0 | -4.24 | |
Extra OL. Benny(-1) gets doubled and put on skates, and typically that would be enough but McGregor(+2) throws a TE right into the path of the QB so that his blocker soaks up the ballcarrier's momentum as Hutchinso..I mean McGregor soaks up the lead blocker. Momentum stopped short the QB tries to leap and hits a guy Grant(+1) shoved back. Sabb(+1, tackling+1) then comes around from the outside, digs out Haarberg, and yanks him out of there to end any further pushing. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 14-0. 1 min 1st Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Gun TTB | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 1 off | Pass | 4 | RB Swing | Barrett | 1 | -0.59 |
McGregor(+1, PR+1) beats Corc immediately so ball goes immediately to the flat where Barrett(+2, tackling+1) meets and brings him down. Knee is down at the 25, Ref-1 give them an extra yard. | ||||||||||||
O26 | 2nd | 9 | Gun Wk RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 off | Run | Power CT Read | Harrell | 7 | -0.65 | |
Low snap (Hat-2) and they fall on it but Grant(+1) hopped outside two guys trying to downblock and Barrett(+1) blasted into the backfield so this play was going to be a loss even if they got it off. | ||||||||||||
O19 | 3rd | 16 | Gun TTE | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 bdy | Pass | 4 | Scramble | Barrett | 11 | 0.20 |
Stunt fails on the other side but McGregor(+1, PR+1) gets through. He's out of his lane but on 3rd & 16 a flush wins. Barrett(+0.5) corrals him after a little chunk, still well short of a go-for-it situation. WJ takes a swipe at a fumble. Good thought | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 21-0. 10 min 2nd Q. Hot take: M went 3 and out on purpose so they could get Doman a chance to boom it with 20mph winds behind him one time. You know, just to see. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O20 | 1st | 10 | I-Heavy | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Under | 1 off | Run | Down G Lead | Hausmann | 3 | -0.24 | |
Moore(+1) takes on the G's kickout and doesn't budge. Hausmann(+1) comes down to thwack the FB. The two of them combine to tackle. | ||||||||||||
O23 | 2nd | 7 | Gun 3x1 RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 press | Pass | 4 | Slant | Benny | 2 | -0.28 |
This is going at Johnson(+1, cov+1) who's in Washington's hip pocket and in position to break it up but Benny(+2) gets his hands up and bats it. Ball goes directly back the Haarberg (Luck-2), who starts to run with it. D-Mo(+1) and Colson(+1) react quickly to keep that to a 2-yard gain. | ||||||||||||
O25 | 3rd | 5 | Empty 3x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Eagle A | 1 off | Pass | 3 | Slant | Stewart | 12 | 1.86 |
Annoying DE coverage Part 3 (Neck Sharpies). Stewart(-2, cov-2) doesn't wall off and Harris is a step behind because of his alignment, is there to tackle immediately so no minus on him. I do have to ding Colson(-1) for not realizing he needs to be outside, which means M was in the wrong playcall, which meant there was a WR running free with Wallace in trail on the other side that could have been hit for a TD if the slant wasn't open. | ||||||||||||
O37 | 1st | 10 | I-form | 5-2-4 | 4-3 Split | 1 off | Run | FB Trap | Benny | 2 | -0.51 | |
They got clever, Minter was cleverer (RPS+1) as Nebraska tries to trap with a FB dive and M is stunting Benny(+0.5) right back into the gap it's intended to quick hit. He remains parallel to the LOS while Jenkins(+0.5), unblocked, also shuffles and initiates the tackle. D-Mo(+1) ripped through the line from the other side to help stuff. | ||||||||||||
O39 | 2nd | 8 | Gun Twins | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Over | 1 off | PRO | Split Flow | Harris | -2 | -1.22 | |
This is supposed to be that play that looks like arc and options to a TE screen--OL are all blocking way downfield so any pass has to be behind the LOS. D-Mo(+1) plays it perfectly, taking the read, pushing the TE upfield, then cutting off the QB's escape lane. Haarberg (Hat-1) stumbles and now it's over as Stewart(+1) has put a TE on the ground and comes in to sack. The tackle attempt is iffy--he gets a shoulder pad and rips him forward--and there's a lot of room to scramble outside but results-based charting. | ||||||||||||
O37 | 3rd | 10 | Gun 3x1 Bunch | 4-2-5 | Okie | 1 bdy | Pass | 4 | Hitch | D.Moore | 7 | 0.28 |
They want another slant but Colson(+1, cov+1) dropped into it (RPS+1). Rush is taking awhile because Harrell went on a long loop (PR-1) but everyone is covered so he dumps it down to his slot receiver to see what he can get with his legs. D-Mo(-1, tackling-1) whiffs at 4 yards, Colson (tackling+1) doesn't miss at 7 to bring up 4th & 3. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 21-0. 4 min 2nd Q. Next drive is late in the half but Nebraska is gonna give it a go. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Gun 3x1 R-exit | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | Run | 4 | QB Draw | Hausmann | 16 | 1.42 |
0:23, 2TO. OL is 5 yards downfield so this is either an elaborate draw or they just think the B10 refs are that incompetent. Going with draw (RPS-2) because the guy blocking Jenkins knows to seal him and THERE IT IS THE FIRST PLAY ALL GAME THAT JENKINS WAS SUCCESSFULLY BLOCKED. Harrell(-0.5) gets caught flying too far upfield, McGregor(+1)sees what's happening and just misses a chop down but this also forces the QB closer to the sideline and limits the gain. Hausmann(-1) doesn't react to the OL releasing on him, gets in a handfight, and is only able to chase this out at the M41. | ||||||||||||
O41 | 1st | 10 | Gun TTE | 4-2-5 | Nk Under | 2 fld | Pass | 4 | RB Dumpoff | Hausmann | 7 | 0.70 |
0:16. Mush rush with the RB helping Corc with a chip that bops Harrell(-0.5) way out (PR-1). Nowhere to throw and timer goes off so Haarberg dumps to the RB. Extra awareness from Hausmann(+1) keeps this inbounds and short of the sticks with an iffy tackle (results-based). Timeout. | ||||||||||||
O48 | 2nd | 3 | Gun 3x1 Bunch | 3-1-7 | Prevent | 3 off | Pass | 3 | Throwaway | Harrell | Inc | 0.00 |
0:08, 1 TO. Harrell(+1, PR+1) beats the RT clean and forces a scramble. Pursuit from Stewart(+0.5) and Jenkins(+0.5) means there's no chance to launch a Hail Mary and the chase expires the rest of the clock. Sainristil(+1, cov+1) is blanketing the guy he's looking at. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: EoH. 28-0. Things start getting backuppy now. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Gun TTE | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 1 off | Play-action | 5 | Post | Sabb | 56 | 3.47 |
This is basically a super-deep slant. Grant(+0.5) and Benny(+1, PR+1) has beaten single blocking inside so this has to be out quickly to one of only two guys in the pattern. Paige(+1) is covering one of them so it's only this post to Washington that should be bracketed by Johnson(-2, tackling-2) who is beat by yards, and Sabb(-2) who is playing it five yards deep, and Wallace(-1) who has no threats on his side and doesn't find work. Catch is made at the N45, Sabb is outrun, Wallace and Johnson are trying to punch it out for the next 30 yards. I could have graded a lot harsher on this but scoreboard. Drawing. | ||||||||||||
M19 | 1st | 10 | Gun Twins RB | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 1 off | Run | Belly | Benny | 2 | -0.13 | |
Grant(-1) is washed out by a double, Benny(-0.5) did better but couldn't keep a TE from getting to Barrett(-0.5). McGregor(+2) crosses the TE he put in the backfield and closes down a dangerously forming lane. | ||||||||||||
M17 | 2nd | 8 | Offset Str Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1 press | Run | Sprint Option | Barrett | 6 | 0.08 | |
Harrell(+0.5) sets up on the hash for a good delay, which is enough for Barrett(+3) to shoot past a TE supposed to downblock him, meet the RB behind the LOS, and yank the ball loose while tackling. It squirts forward, Jenkins dives first but it bounces to a Nebraska player at the 12, meaning this goes into the books as a 6-yard run, which is Nebraska's longest of the day against the starters. | ||||||||||||
M11 | 3rd | 2 | Gun Heavy | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Under | 2 fld | Penalty | False Start | n/a | (-5) | -0.45 | |
Extra OL in. RB moves forward while TE is crossing. Oops! (Hat-1) | ||||||||||||
M16 | 3rd | 7 | Gun TTB | 4-2-5 | Nk Split! BC | 1 fld | Pass | 4 | Sack | McGregor | -6 | -1.59 |
McGregor(+3, PR+3) gets Corcoran with no help so these are kiddie points. RPS+1 they had Colson(+1, cov+1) slicing crossers. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Missed FG(40). 28-0. 12 min 3rd Q. Last McCarthy drive ensues and it's 35-0 | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Gun 2x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 off | Pass | 4 | Hitch | D.Moore | Inc | -0.70 |
Amoeba. D-Mo(+2, PR+1) pushes the LG all the way back then gets up and authoritatively bats it down. LG keeps pushing long after the play is dead, and Derrick steps on Corcoran, who leaves the game. | ||||||||||||
O25 | 2nd | 10 | Pistol Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 press | PRO | Slant | Johnson | Inc | -0.35 | |
RPS-1 as they see Quinten coming down and check into this. M is sold out on run and Johnson(-2, cov-2) is burned crispy inside by the WR he's got in man. Q-Jo(+2) aborts his rush, gets up, and tips it enough for it to fall harmlessly to the ground. | ||||||||||||
O25 | 3rd | 10 | Gun Trips Bunch RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Split! | 2 off | Pass | 5 | Throwaway | D.Moore | 0 | -0.16 |
Nebraska C does the thing again where he snaps it as soon as his hand goes down, which causes an illegal shift (Hat-1) because a WR isn't set yet, but also this time D-Mo(+2, PR+3) is off at the snap and the LT who's behind the worst turnstile in FBS is dead before he's out of his break. All of Haarberg's receivers are on the other side of the field so he rolls to the sideline and chucks it away. EO3Q for defense. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 35-0. 5 min 3rd Q. Tuttle Time. Boivin. Starters out. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O19 | 1st | 10 | Gun 3x1 RB H-Jet | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | Run | Jet Sweep | Paige | 8 | 0.78 | |
I hate how these are considered passing plays. Anyway Hood(-1) bites on the QB's read and Nebraska has numbers. Hausmann(+1) gets into a TE enough to bend this a little. Johnson is getting blocked in the back a bit but gets through to force a cutback into Paige(-1, tackling-1), whose pursuit was good but he whiffs the tackle to add 5 yards. | ||||||||||||
O27 | 2nd | 2 | Gun TTB RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 bdy | Run | Belly | Hood | 3 | -0.03 | |
Wallace at Nk. Weird RPS tie where the line is slanting and offense is trying to run belly. Benny(-0.5) blown out by a double. Stewart(-0.5) is wrenched inside by a TE and fights back too late. Hausmann(+0.5) fixes things somewhat by burying his face into the knot of humanity. Hood(+1) is replacing and hopped around the LT who saw Benny slant away and didn't find anyone. He tackles but momentum gains the 1st. | ||||||||||||
O30 | 1st | 10 | Gun 3x1 | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1 bdy | Pass | 4 | Sack | D.Moore | -9 | -1.53 |
Nk Amoeba. D-Mo(+3, PR+3) gets his shoulder low and turns the corner on the RT at 5 yards(!) Haarberg is winding up to throw at the light knows what and gets stripped. RT jumps on it. | ||||||||||||
O21 | 2nd | 19 | Gun Wk | 4-2-5 | 30 Stack | 1 fld | RPO | IZ/Slant | D.Moore | 6 | 0.05 | |
Harrell sees something pre-snap that I think tells Stewart to run a scrape exchange with him. It would work but D-Mo(-1) and Hood are running a twist that gets Moore bashed way backwards. Hausmann(+1) fills to keep it to a short gain on 2nd & 19. Not gonna RPS a 6 yard gain on that. | ||||||||||||
O27 | 3rd | 13 | Gun 3x1 Bunch | 4-2-5 | 30 Stack | 2 off | Pass | 5 | RB Flat | Mi.Pollard | 13 | 2.42 |
Garbage time rules. D-Mo(+1, PR+2) beats the RT again and Stewart(+2) bull-rushed LT who got a chip from the RB. Should be a sack here but LT grabs Stewart's shoulderpads and throws him into Moore. Impressive cheating and Refs-3 are in getmeoutthere time so they let it fly. In all of this either Hausman(-2, cov-2) or Micah(-1) Pollard lost track of the RB. Haarberg flips to him and he gets close to the line to gain before Hausmann catches up. They give him the last yard because why not. | ||||||||||||
O40 | 1st | 10 | Gun Wk Demi | 4-2-5 | Nk Even | 2 off | Pass | 4 | TE Skinny Post | Hausmann | 17 | 1.40 |
Amorion Walker and DJ Waller at CB. I totally forgot about this play. Have to Hat+1 this throw and catch to the buttzone with Hausmann(-1, cov-1) just a little too slow to play. Paige tackles immediately. Michigan Scouting+1 for knowing Fidone is a dude. | ||||||||||||
M43 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 2x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Even | 2 fld | Pass | 4 | Slip Screen | Hood | Inc | -0.94 |
Amoeba makes a laugher out of this as D-Mo(+1) forms up on the RB it's supposed to go to then covers him. Hood(+2, PR+2) comes screaming upfield looking for blood so Haarberg turfs it. | ||||||||||||
M43 | 2nd | 10 | Pistol Str H-Orbit | 4-2-5 | Nk Under | 2 off | Pass | 4 | Flag | Sabb | Inc | -1.06 |
Harrell(+2, PR+2) obliterations Corc's backup, who decides nothing for it but to tackle him while he's tackling the QB--they're not calling anything (Refs-2). Haarberg is spooked and tosses it over a triple-covered guy (Cov+2). Sabb gets his hands under it but can't intercept. | ||||||||||||
M43 | 3rd | 10 | Gun 3x1 RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Eagle AA | 1 fld | Pass | 5 | Slant | Hill | Inc | -0.91 |
Q-Jo(+1, PR+1) times this blitz perfectly and comes in unblocked. Throw goes to another slant that another DE, this time Harrell is spot-dropping but at least in position to tackle short of the sticks. WR drops it. Hill was close enough not to earn a minus--this was 6-7 yards if caught. | ||||||||||||
M43 | 4th | 10 | Gun 2x2 | 4-2-5 | 30 Stack | 2 fld | Pass | 5 | Stewart | Stewart | -7 | -3.90 |
Stewart(+3, PR+3) beats non-Corc LT this time, gets his hand on the QB's shoulder, and rips him down. Looked like tight man coverage downfield but didn't last long enough to grade. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 38-0. 10 min 4th Q. Denegal Time. Do I have to do the next one? | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O26 | 1st | 10 | Gun Str | 4-2-5 | Nk Even | 2 off | Run | Counter Trey | Goode | 74 | 5.98 | |
New theory: The football gods shine on Huskers who run Trey. Works perfectly with Pierce(-2) blown out--turned around even--by a double. Atteberry(-1) driven out as well, which cuts off any backside help. On the frontside Micah(-1) Pollard gets a TE--feel for him because he can't really funnel anywhere with Guy(Refs-1) getting ripped down by the arm. Q-Jo(-3) could hold it down but gets outraced. So does Wallace. Moore was in man on a slot, he closes the distance but can't outrun this guy either. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 45-7. 4 min 4th Q. Jake Plummer lives. Next drive starts with 51 seconds with all backups; we're done here. |
Wanna see the Jenkins and Grant scores now or should I save them for later in the narrative?
I thought we were going to talk about the sla—did you say Jenkins and Grant?
I have a chart.
Okay, but we are doing the slants right after.
Chart.
Defensive Line | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Snaps | + | - | T | Notes |
Kris Jenkins | 26 | 7 | 0 | +7 | This is like a +12 on a normal # of snaps. |
Mason Graham | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | DNP |
Kenneth Grant | 17 | 8.5 | 1 | +7.5 | He came, he crushed, he conquered. |
Cam Goode | 16 | 2 | 1 | +1 | Complementary piece on Benny/Jenkins events. |
Rayshaun Benny | 23 | 7 | 2 | +5 | You tried to to stretch Benny. |
Jaylen Harrell | 27 | 6 | 1 | +5 | Nebraska chose to chip his pass rushes. |
Braiden McGregor | 18 | 12 | 0 | +12 | Terrorized Corc and so so much more. |
Derrick Moore | 21 | 13.5 | 4 | +9.5 | When, not if, he gets to star terrritory. |
Josaiah Stewart | 20 | 8.5 | 5 | +3.5 | Did most of this late. |
TOTAL | 192 | 64.5 | 17 | +47.5 | The usual mass destruction of the usual crappy OL. |
Linebacker | |||||
Player | Snaps | + | - | T | Notes |
Junior Colson | 27 | 4 | 1 | +3 | So good in the box, so untested in coverage. |
Michael Barrett | 19 | 8 | 1.5 | +6.5 | Still Michigan's best linebacker. |
Ernest Hausmann | 25 | 5.5 | 2 | +3.5 | Has no fear. Two negs on drives barely worth charting. |
Jaydon Hood | 14 | 3 | 1 | +2 | I like him. |
Jimmy Rolder | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | DNP |
TOTAL | 87 | 22.5 | 7.5 | +15 | Still not sure if Partridge Effect or Never Have to Cover. |
Secondary | |||||
Player | Snaps | + | - | T | Notes |
Rod Moore | 17 | 2 | 0 | +2 | One Peppers play at nickel, not at fault for TD. |
Makari Paige | 27 | 1 | 1 | - | Booooring. |
Quinten Johnson | 20 | 3 | 3 | - | Not Booooring. |
Keon Sabb | 31 | 2 | 2 | - | Feels more like a promising freshman than a soph. |
Zeke Berry | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | DNP |
Mike Sainristil | 16 | 1 | 2 | -1 | Flat-footed on a slant, played a lot of CB. |
Will Johnson | 33 | 1.5 | 4 | -2.5 | Gonna hold this star until the All-American returns. |
Josh Wallace | 43 | 0.5 | 1 | -0.5 | Half of his snaps at nickel. Mostly unnoticed. |
Keshaun Harris | 9 | 0 | 0 | - | Only involved in one play (slant, tackled immediately). |
Ja'Den McBurrows | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | DNP |
Amorion Walker | 4 | 0 | 0 | - | Got in late! |
Jyaire Hill | 9 | 0 | 0 | - | Had one slant late; it wasn't caught. |
DJ Waller Jr. | 13 | 0 | 0 | - | DNC. |
TOTAL | 222 | 11 | 13 | -2 | Halfway through the season they're in Game 1 form. |
Metrics | |||||
Player | + | - | T | Notes | |
Pressure | 25 | 2 | 23/23 | Ruthless. | |
Coverage | 4 | 12 | -8 | Slants of various depth. | |
Tackling | 4 | 4 | - | It was hot out. | |
RPS | 4 | 5 | -1 | Scissors vs Scissors kind of game. | |
Hat Tip | 1 | 6 | -5 | Lots of false starts, some of them called. |
Whoah.
Keep in mind guys were getting like 15-25 snaps in this game.
That coverage score…
Hey look, it's Jenkins blowing up a load option.
#94 second from the bottom
Oh that's pretty. But the cov—
And here's what happened when they tried to run power at Grant!
#78 the nose
That is rather nice. HEEEEY.
I'm just showing you how the defensive front throttled a heretofore functional running game, holding them to 2 YPC until the deep backups were in. Even the 2nd string DL was kicking ass this week. Here's Benny gently placing a guard out of the way while Stewart wrenches a TE to the ground to bait and close a frontside gap the RB had to cut to because Derrick Moore blew up the intended backside gap.
#26 the DT on the bottom hash
Look that is all very nice run defense but I know you're just trying to distract from the thing you know I came here ready to panic about.
Yes.
Which is that Michigan Nebraska exposed a real weakness in Michigan's defense that could upend their season if doesn't improve.
I may agree.
Wait WHAT?!?!?
It's not proof of anything, but I am concerned about the secondary right now.
Jayden Denegal scored a point before anyone on Nebraska.
I didn't say Nebraska was the team that was going to get anywhere with it. Have we switched roles? I thought you were supposed to find things to panic about and I talk you off the ledge.
I am about 90% certain if I stepped off a ledge JJ McCarthy would sprout wings, carry me off to Neverland and serve me corn.
Probably.
And the slants?
There were two different issues, one of which was more about a tactical issue in this game, the other probably having to do with all the injuries in the secondary. Which do you want to tackle first?
Short term.
If you've read any of our non-hockey front-page content this week already you probably already know this, but Michigan had a funky approach to dealing with passing-ish downs that didn't work out as intended, which was to drop their defensive ends into short underneath zones en route to covering the flats.
#5 on the bottom and #8 at the top of the line
I thought Stewart was in a hurry to get to the flat and hopped outside before Harris, who had outside leverage, had an opportunity to get on the receiver's hip. I didn't knock Harris because he's still able to make the tackle, and the way they're set up he has to play the seam before driving on anything that breaks inside. That's what Harrell's there for.
Here's Derrick Moore doing basically the same thing, with the bonus of Sainristil and he both biting on a pump fake to a hitch that's not there.
That one's a little more understandable since the WR travels further and the spot the slant usually hits is outside the hash. The middle of the field usually isn't threatened that way because it's crowded with linebackers.
To a degree I thought Nebraska's OC did a good job of setting up Stewart, because the first time he dropped into coverage they managed to hit him with a TE in the flat. That's in his head, and the next time he drops they hit the slant behind him.
There may have been more to it than that. Nebraska threw a lot of short hooks in their first couple of games, which is how you would usually attack a zone defense like Michigan's. These DEs are dropping into spots where they could wall off slants if they're looking for them, but the way they're playing it's more like they're expecting hooks. Notice how aggressively Sainristil is driving on the pump fake here:
#0 at the bottom-left of the screen
I also noticed on the other side of the field that WR#84 was running a whip route, and totally bracketed.
It seems to me that Minter's scout of Nebraska is they throw a lot of hooks on lean-passing downs, and to a degree Nebraska had this self-scouted and converted those to slants for this game. In this scenario, Michigan's plan of using their defensive ends to take away Nebraska's favorite thing backfired because Nebraska went to a new favorite thing, and if anyone's going to start adjusting their coverage on the fly it's probably not defensive ends.
That doesn't sound like much of a concern. You mentioned another?
Will Johnson's injury is probably still hampering him somewhat.
You're going to have to be more miserable than that if you're trying to be me.
This reminded me a little of 2018?
Too me! Pull it back!
I was specifically thinking about the "Call from Mars" game when Michigan's DBs were giving up inside leverage on everything because they were overreacting to SMU giving up slot fades the week prior. Fast forward five years, and we've got a problem here.
#2 on the bottom
Quinten Johnson saved the day, but Nebraska ID'd inside leverage against Will Johnson and got a LOT of separation. Again, this could be a tactical thing. With success rates against this defense as low as they've been since the Depression, opponents have been taking any opportunity presented by press coverage to launch high-upside fades down the sideline. It's got to be in Johnson's mind the minute he steps down that they're most likely to try him over the top, and when Washington stabs in that direction he responds thusly.
Less excusable: Johnson was also way way off on the post route, which can be viewed as a deep slant.
#2 the CB on the bottom
There are just two receivers running routes and one of them is wiped out by Makari Paige. Johnson shouldn't be expected to have leverage against an inside route there—that is up to Keon Sabb above or Wallace coming over to assist—but you do at least expect Johnson to be on the receiver's ass the way cornerbacks usually are when our offense is running digs to Cornelius Johnson and Colston Loveland.
It wasn't all bad—the ball that Benny bapped back to the quarterback was going to be another slant and Johnson was in perfect position to rake it out.
At this point I don't know what it means. Maybe he needs reps. Maybe he's still dealing with a thing. Maybe he just doesn't trust his let to pivot while in a full gallop yet. Most likely all this means is Will is coming back from an injury and is probably not fully himself yet. We've a couple months yet before he'll be needed to lock down Marvin Harrison Jr. the way Notre Dame was able to with Benjamin Morrison.
And Sabb?
I gave him a -2 for the deep shot under him as well because he's playing it super-conservatively (-1) and doesn't tackle (-1). But I don't know how mad I can stay about that since Michigan was up 28-0 and anything short of a touchdown was likely to result in something less than a touchdown. Nebraska's longest run by that point was six yards, and that only because the running back fumbled it forward for five of them. In a different situation that might be a -3 play, but in this one Nebraska was set up with 1st & 10 on Michigan's 19 and ended up missing a 40-yard field goal.
Also Sabb was a part of that nasty run defense. Here he is at the moment Nebraska came closest to scoring during the game's competitive portion:
And on the next play Sabb was the guy who actually went around behind the enemy's lines to dig out the ballcarrier and ensure there was no advance. On the podcast Brian called him a true freshman, and while this is not true it feels spiritually true. I also finally remembered something from his recruiting profile*:
Keon Sabb is already NFL-sized, but nowhere near that level of refinement, having played as much wide receiver and basketball as safety.
He got a crash course in a year at IMG but it stands to reason he's at the "playable, still learning" part of the learning curve. He also missed last week so he may have been a bit unrehearsed as well.
Speaking of safeties who aren't all the way back, Rod Moore is so rusty Chevy Chase tried to take him on multiple family vacations.
He was…fine actually?
I saw him on Nebraska's late touchdown. On the screen and everything.
We'll get to that play later, but Moore showing up wasn't a negative; he was covering a slot receiver on the other side of the field and made up more ground than anybody. They never threw at him when he was playing safety. I did chart two events for him but both were +1s for playing edge from the nickel-safety position like he was 2016 Jabrill Peppers. I didn't clip either of them but one he stalemated a pulling guard and the other he shot past a confused blocker to cut off an end-around.
You're complimenting him at nickel? Is this trying to set up the You Underrated Sainristil bit?
I am recognizing the fact that Michigan spent large swaths of this game trying other guys at nickel while Sainristil took reps outside or saved his All-American body for greater challenges. He got wrongfooted on one of the slants, and the only other charting moment from this game was running a WR out of bounds on what was supposed to be a Hail Mary. I guess that's your underrated moment.
Did you learn anything else about the nickel subs?
Not a thing. Wallace played there most of the back half of the game, and they never targeted him. They didn't actually pass it all that much actually. Not that I blame them. That left tackle, Turner Corcoran, was bad-bad, and when he got hurt his replacement was bad-bad-bad. You'll note their most successful pass all day had two guys running routes. On that play there were two tight ends tasked with keeping McGregor from getting to the backfield, and the running back couldn't get into a route because he was needed to chip Jaylen Harrell. Part of what made the slants so frustrating was Michigan had plenty of guys in coverage.
It all comes back to that left tackle situation. As soon as they left him alone with anybody this happened:
Okay, Caveat Corcoran, do you have a favorite edge?
In this game it was McGregor. Even if you take away the above, McGregor was the primary culprit on Michigan's two biggest plays: the bat that led to Grant's interception.
And the 4th down stuff, when he shoved a tight end into the QB's path.
#17 the last DE on the line
The funny thing is neither of those were his best play of this game. That would be the 2nd play of the 2nd half, right Johnson and Sabb gave up the big groaner, and then Benny got washed out on a Belly.
#17 at the bottom of the line
It's hard not to get kicked out of that play because McGregor has to worry about getting edged by a QB pull. Most edges will force a give and try to push the TE to close the gap a little so the LB and safety can take care of things. McGregor puts his tight end high, waits until the RB has to go inside, and then crosses the blocker and takes away the gap. This was blocked to the safety, but the RB can't get even access the gap this play was intended to get to.
Now, if you want to talk NFL upside, I can sell you on a guy who's heading to the 1st or 2nd round next year. There's the kind of pass rush that will work on Corcoran, and the kind that will work on anybody, and Derrick Moore gave us another example of the latter.
Combine that with how highly developed Moore is for this stage of his career and Michigan is getting at or better than the level of production they got from Mike Morris last season. I'm talking subtlety. Check this out:
#8 the DE on the top
It took me a moment to figure out what they're doing until I saw the left tackle heading outside to kick a linebacker while the slot receiver came back to crack a cornerback. They're trying to run a split flow option to a tunnel screen. It's a fascinating idea that they probably drew up just for this game. Only problem: Derrick Moore didn't let the tight end get into a route, NOR did Derrick Moore get out of his rushing lane. Play is blown up, and Stewart comes through a TE on the backside to sack.
Speaking of Stewart, he had a sack against Corc's backup.
..and that and some other 4th quarter pass rushes that inflated his score a little bit.
Did he give up an edge though?
Nope. Closest he came was that iffy tackle on the play Moore blew up. Stewart did come inside a few times, but he made sure the guy blocking him was on the ground whenever he did so.
And Harrell?
He didn't score as highly, but I stick to my assertion from last week that he is Michigan's most consistent edge defender, even when teams go to great lengths to get outside of his edge. Here's another look at the end-around that Sabb helped finish on 3rd & 1. Sabb's momentum was appreciated, but the guy who set an edge, shed his blocker, and roped down most of the ATH's momentum was Harrell.
Harrell was also a crucial cog in the load option play that was going sour until he and Jenkins flipped the script. You cannot play an option any better than this.
#32 on the bottom of the line
Harrell should have had a sack against Corc's backup as well, but it's these little things that make him so important to the defense. I also noted Nebraska used a running back to chip Harrell whenever they tried to pass it. Their coaches at least think he's the greatest threat, whatever my charting says.
You didn't name a favorite.
And I won't. But Harrell, Moore, and McGregor are all very close to Dangerman status. Stewart's still a step behind.
Have you formed an opinion on Colson yet?
Nope, we still haven't faced a team that got any chance to attack him in zone, although one interpretation of the dropping ends gambit is this was meant to avoid just that. This was another game where the defensive line was chewing up the running game so thoroughly the linebackers could barely do more than earn half points for showing up in a gap. I did clip Colson playing a slice technique when Nebraska tried to go with crossing routes on the McGregor thundersack.
#25 MLB
…along with his now-typical athletic stops. Hausmann stuck his nose into gaps for a bunch of +1s that didn't get clipped. His only minuses were on drives that didn't matter at the end of each half. The guy who managed to make a couple of plays was Barrett, both times because he got to use his speed to track down a guy in the flat.
This one gets more impressive each re-watch:
Look at him get there. Look how he whizzes by the tight end who was supposed to get in his way. Look how he punches it out without sacrificing the tackle.
Barrett's linebacking career is like that Wheel of Time show on Amazon. The first season had enough good moments to easily finish ahead of other entries in its genre, but it also kept trying to be things it wasn't, had a lot of bad direction in the early episodes, and was still a bit thin at the end. But Season 2 has just been a total breakout, and each week I'm more excited to see what happens next. There's maybe one flaw* a game, but they're easily forgotten beside the triumphs.
*[Most or maybe all of them go back to a lack of development for Rand because they keep giving stuff he should be doing to Moiraine and Lan, who are clearly the showrunner's favorite characters. Let the boy have some agency, Rafe! Isn't that the point of the whole season?]
I think we call this the garbage time of your sports column.
Yeah, it's almost like there were 20 events and the game was over.
What happened on the touchdown?
A true freshman defensive tackle got his Welcome to the Big Ten double-team.
#95 Trey Pierce, the DT on the hash mark
…and then Quinten Johnson and Josh Wallace got run by thinking they could corral him. This is that Baylor transfer who elicited articles about his crazy speed, FWIW. Still, I'm a bit nervous about our secondary.
Heroes?
Kris Jenkins, Braiden McGregor, Kenneth Grant, Michael Barrett, Jaylen Harrell, and Derrick Moore. Benny had his best game yet.
Maybe Not So Heroic?
Josiah Stewart trying to play linebacker. Will Johnson looks rusty. Jesse Minter might've got got by Nebraska putting a ton of curls on film.
What does it mean for Minnesota and Beyond?
Slants might come up in practice this week. If Minnesota's receivers are smart (they are) they'll be practicing their slant-'n-go routes, because it's a holy lock Michigan's defenders are going to be repping these.
Jenkins did not have a perfect game but he came close. They successfully blocked him by running a QB draw with 23 seconds left from their own 25. I look forward to increasingly elaborate plays to find ways to say he didn't beat them every snap he was out there for.
Secondary has more lineups than a Kenpom Page. It's Game 5 and they're still playing around trying to figure out a best five out of eight or nine pieces, several of whom have been in and out of the lineup all year. Would be nice to get this settled so they can play together for a month before the real passing games arrive.
Moore/McGregor is the best SDE combo since Gary/Wormley. Both doing the subtle and not subtle things.
Grant Theory: vindicated? Last week I said he's maximized (for now) when he can play a few snaps and get off the field. This week they ran him out for a few plays, he destroyed something, then came off. Granted it was 95 degrees and a blast furnace on the field, but they didn't use Jenkins this way. Think 17-20 snaps is the sweet spot this year.
I have no linebacker data and I feel fine. At some point I'm not going to care that Junior Colson has like six gradable coverage events this year and Hausmann has like seven.
The 3rd string defense is definitely not beating Ohio State. Just once I'd like to not be ignoring a scoring drive or shoulda-been-a-score'ing drive in garbage time.
Your Moment of Zen:
October 4th, 2023 at 12:11 PM ^
Well after re-watching the game I felt very concerned about the DBs and this didn't make me feel any better about it.
Let's all hope it's just rusty from being injured and low reps, for Moore/Johnson. We really need Johnson to be the shutdown corner this year for the PSU/OSU games
October 4th, 2023 at 12:28 PM ^
tbh it doesn't seem like a shutdown corner/secondary is necessary for PSU. their pass offense is stinky
October 4th, 2023 at 1:59 PM ^
Their offense in general is kind of stinky this year.
October 4th, 2023 at 11:53 PM ^
Very concerned is such an over exaggeration.
The QB completed 14 passes for 199 and 0 TDs (with 1 INT, but that was caused by the DL).
The secondary is returning 4(!) guys who many thought could start this year.
Just like it's too early to panic about Edwards, it's too early for the secondary. Give me 2-3 more games and if guys who missed all fall camp aren't back to themselves...okay, we worry.
Realistically this was like game 1 or 2 for most of those guys.
October 4th, 2023 at 12:28 PM ^
Grant Theory: vindicated? They ran him out for a few plays, he destroyed something, then came off. Granted it was 95 degrees and a blast furnace on the field, but they didn't use Jenkins this way. Think 17-20 snaps is the sweet spot this year.
Is this why he came to play in Ann Arbor? Because eventually it's going to be overcast and in the low 50s and he'll be able to go for 30+ snaps in the games that matter most? Gotta love that Michigan weather!
October 4th, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^
My company is migrating to Teams for instant messaging. I noticed yesterday that Teams set up a chat window for me to talk to myself. I thought, oh great, this bolded alter-ego bit has gone mainstream.
October 4th, 2023 at 1:36 PM ^
Slack has this feature, which is very useful for sending notes to yourself or moving files between devices. Negatives: you're responsible for both sides of the conversation.
October 4th, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
I use teams for both of your reasons. Pics on phone to my work. Sending myself notes and pics of cute girls that i can look at time to time.
October 4th, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^
You sound like a former or future MSU football coach.
October 4th, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^
I like how it says
This is your space
October 4th, 2023 at 9:55 PM ^
You can also mute yourself, but you can't delete bolded alter-ego. Found this out today cleaning out my inbox.
October 4th, 2023 at 12:33 PM ^
Always a highlight of the football week.
Am worried about those pesky slant passes not getting closed down. Hoping the DL, LB and DB all progress.
October 4th, 2023 at 12:48 PM ^
Even watching it live I couldn't figure out why the DEs were dropping into the flats so much while the DBs were playing with so much outside leverage. It seems like those should work more in tandem, but I guess it also seems like that should be pretty easy to fix, either the zone drops or the leverage of the DBs.
October 4th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
Why didn't Jenkins get a tackling minus for missing the tackle on the 3rd and 4 jet sweep?
October 4th, 2023 at 1:33 PM ^
Because he got in the backfield and slowed the guy up, which was a positive contribution to the play.
October 4th, 2023 at 1:57 PM ^
I thought it was ludicrous that the announcers said that was a missed tackle on Jenkins' part. He'd just shed a block, and had a split second to tackle a guy running away from him. That's a play I'd expect Aaron Donald to make and that's about it. In the case of "just an All-American," even redirecting that guy further towards the sideline and slowing his north-south progress is a win.
October 4th, 2023 at 1:07 PM ^
I'm always a glass half full guy... Having said that having 2 pieces of the secondary coming back from injury is causing some of the wonkiness in scoring for the secondary and causing some of us to feel uneasy. Turner is a big loss his speed alone covered a lot of ills over the last two seasons. I expect as Moore and Johnson get in playing shape you will see some of this tighten down. Luckily we aren't in jeopardy of being sliced and diced apart for some weeks. The best news a great DL can cover a lot of ills in the back 5 and we seem to have that.
October 4th, 2023 at 1:14 PM ^
Caveat: I don't know shit. Like zero. I'll stay weigh in because internet and say that I'm giving the staff a lot of doubt benefit re slants. Harbaugh's staff has proven that they're capable of excellent IN-GAME adjustments and I'm sure they'll find a way to program/practice an answer moving forward. I think that it'll take stupid stuff (turnovers, injuries) for Michigan to dump a game, even against talented squads.
October 4th, 2023 at 2:59 PM ^
You might not know shit, but I consider you an expert on the topic of Diabeetuhs
October 4th, 2023 at 4:05 PM ^
Diabeetus: it's the right thing to do.
Wait...
October 4th, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
Considering the schedule thus far, I think we should worry a bit about the secondary. Until we see a fully healthy secondary, it's too early to worry about it. Michigan won't face a good passing team until Maryland game which is in November. It'll give Michigan plenty of time to iron our their issues.
October 4th, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
The secondary obviously needs to get better.
But having the best front 7 in the country can forgive a lot of sins.
October 4th, 2023 at 2:12 PM ^
On the rat drop techniques, I am trying to think back to last year. From my (often faulty) memory I think they have been pretty consistent with approach, having ends drop at a 45 degree angle from the LOS, so not sure how much is gameplan dependent.
Another explanation could be that Michigan runs those sim pressure rats frequently enough that it is expected by opponents on passing downs and the ends aren't selling their rush well enough. Therefore if the pressure is less effective, a team like Nebraska can have the time for the QB to hit the second window on a slant.
ED: looked back at some tape from last year. I was wrong, they do vary drops based on coverage. Still think we may be tipping these sim pressures, but drops need to be better.
October 4th, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^
I'm a lot less worried about the secondary than I might be because, given that we've played a hilariously light schedule while looking like arguably the best team in the country, it's pretty clear these games are essentially being used as scrimmages in various ways. To wit, some of the events we don't love to see are the result of Michigan just trying stuff out. It won't always work
Also worth noting that cornerback is the "baseball hitting" of football positions, in that even elite guys fail a lot of the time. It is what it is
October 4th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
I'm very worried about PSU and Maryland the most. I think our secondary could get torched since they have QBs who can exploit our weakness. Taguviliolioulooa is mobile too and could negate our line play. I was never so sure about Will Johnson being Woodson 2.0 yet like some made him out to be. He seemed solid last year toward the end of the year, but never thought he was lighting the world on fire outside the Purdue INTs and some good tackles. Seems like a lot of projection factored into expectations for him. I think all our position groups are easily A+, except for the line being A- and secondary a B-. Edwards has been a massive disappointment, but it really doesn't matter too much. If we don't win a Natty this year it's because McCarthy got hurt and/or the secondary isn't very good or too injured. This is where shitty recruiting is gonna fuck us. If we just had one more solid speedy corner that could run with guys we'd be virtually a lock. What are we actually missing other than a lack of a dominating Tackle and truly great Corner? A good return guy? I do miss Henning a lot.
October 4th, 2023 at 2:59 PM ^
Serious question about you not buying the Will Johnson hype: what do you make of his performance against OSU and in particular Marvin Harrison Jr.?
October 4th, 2023 at 5:01 PM ^
I thing he's great I just don't think he's best corner in the country or first round draft pick great at this point. He could be eventually. Last year was a small sample size. I don't think he was on even on Harrison all game. See below for chart. He had 5 minuses and graded out as +4 vs OSU. That's good for sure, but not elite domination. Purdue was really his only pure dominance game. He's not better than Jordan Lewis, David Long, Ambry Thomas, or LeVert hill at this point in my opinion. DJ Turner was better for much of the year last year. Ceiling is way higher then any of those guys so I think that's where the hype comes from. I don't think it's a sure thing that he's a lockdown corner though. But we were acting like it's a given.
October 4th, 2023 at 6:30 PM ^
He was PFF's highest graded freshman player. He passed a 5th year senior starter who played multiple years by mid-season as a freshman, and had a statistically better freshman year than any of the players you named. Ambry Thomas basically did nothing but return kicks his freshman year. None of them were put on an equivalent to Marvin Harrison Jr. with no safety help snap 1 in The Game and graded out as "M's best outside cornerback" as freshmen. In the chart you just showed he graded out significantly better than 2nd round pick DJ Turner.
I will grant you that projecting he will be as good as a Heisman winner and 1st Ballot Hall of Famer may be a bit premature, but he had as good a freshman campaign as Michigan has had at corner since Woodson.
October 4th, 2023 at 7:00 PM ^
PFF can't even grade lineman correctly I think he could better than those guys. He was better than them as freshmen, but I'm talking about right now. I don't think he's better right now than any of those guys were at their best. He's also injured. We're extrapolating from 3 good games last year.
October 5th, 2023 at 7:47 AM ^
1st, isn't it waaaay easier to grade CBs than OL? Apples to oranges comparison, IMO.
Second - he's in game one with an injury. We ahve a month of byes until PSU. I have to think they can work out the issues in the secondary by 11/4. At that point, we'll have like 8 guys on the back end with solid playing experience, in multiple roles.
October 4th, 2023 at 4:12 PM ^
Shitty recruiting? Where on this team do you see, at worst, average recruiting or worse?
October 4th, 2023 at 4:57 PM ^
Cornerback. You need 3 solid corners to be elite. We have one. We took Jyaire Hill but it's been mostly 3 star and projects there.
October 4th, 2023 at 10:34 PM ^
Allar hasn't shown anything special yet, even vs an FCS team. He could very well end up being their best QB since McSorely, but so far he's a slight step down from Clifford b/c be can't/won't run.
October 4th, 2023 at 11:32 PM ^
It's more than just the fact that he can't/won't run. (In fact, Allar averages more runs per game this year [5.2] than Clifford averaged last year [4.3]. That's designed runs plus scrambles.)
It's that Allar is a significantly worse passer, too. Clifford's stats from last year: 8.0 yards per attempt; 8.6 average depth of target; 77.1 adjusted completion percentage. Allar's stats from this year (mind you, against not very good competition so far): 6.9 yards per attempt; 6.4 average depth of target; 76.0 adjusted completion percentage.
In my weekly column, I've also been tracking a stat I'm calling YacPy for the time being, which is yards after the catch divided by total passing yards. The closer the YacPy is to 1.00, the more yards your receivers are gaining after they get the ball. It's not a tell-all stat, but it definitely shows on some level if most of the yards are because QBs are doing the work or receivers are. Allar's YacPy in most games is above 0.50. (For reference, J.J. McCarthy is often around 0.25.)
In summary, I think Allar is a significant step down from Clifford because he doesn't throw downfield, most of his yards come from schemes that get receivers in space close to the line of scrimmage, and he's still less accurate than Clifford was a year ago despite the aforementioned.
(EDIT: Oh, and I also forgot to mention how much RB production has fallen off for Singleton and Allen, now that other teams can stack the box and dare Allar to throw downfield on them.)
October 4th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
The link that says Dmo off at the snap goes to the Boivin hit. And at one point you say Watson brings him down, but I think you mean Wallace.
October 4th, 2023 at 2:51 PM ^
Just came here to say I saw this: "Haarberg is winding up to throw at the light knows what," and realized that @Seth is watching Wheel of Time right now, too.
I could never get into it when the series came out in novel form. People told me that the series got better after the first book, but I couldn't make it past that point in print. Maybe because I had aged out of the fantasy young-people-go-on-a-quest-against-ultimate-evil trope. Maybe because the heavy dualistic Good v. Evil themes just don't fit with my real-world views, especially "Darkfriends" that proudly self-identify as serving the Dark. I mean--nobody does that. Read Hannah Arendt about the (depressingly true) banality of evil.
Anyway, the televised version is marching through Season 2 on Prime Video, and I thought to give it a try. It's still a slog, but seeing the visualization of the fantasy world is cool, and at least if I'm groaning at the hokey villains I don't have to force myself to keep reading; the show just keeps going.
I also found it helpful to learn a little more about the life and background of author Robert Jordan--like Tolkein, Lewis, Sapowski, Martin, Vance, Leiber, and others, a fantasy author is a product of their real-world experience, and their fiction often ultimately serves to examine in a safe environment real-world issues that trouble the author. I don't share a worldview with the late Robert Jordan--at least, as expressed in his books--but at least I can better appreciate the blend of Eastern and Western concepts that Jordan was exploring, and have some insight into why.
Oh--and tHE tEaM HAs tO dO bETteR aGAiNSt sLaNTs oR tHEy'Ll nEvER beAT oHIo! Better? ;-)
October 4th, 2023 at 3:34 PM ^
.. of course then I read further down and saw a full write-up:
Barrett's linebacking career is like that Wheel of Time show on Amazon. The first season had enough good moments to easily finish ahead of other entries in its genre, but it also kept trying to be things it wasn't, had a lot of bad direction in the early episodes, and was still a bit thin at the end. But Season 2 has just been a total breakout, and each week I'm more excited to see what happens next. There's maybe one flaw* a game, but they're easily forgotten beside the triumphs.
*[Most or maybe all of them go back to a lack of development for Rand because they keep giving stuff he should be doing to Moiraine and Lan, who are clearly the showrunner's favorite characters. Let the boy have some agency, Rafe! Isn't that the point of the whole season?]
TBH, I always found Rand to be a bit whiny--very young Luke Skywalker-like--and I appreciated the showrunners choosing to focus on Moirane and Lan. Very nice, young man--now let the adults handle the Breaking of the World.
Oh--and Michael Barrett is a dude, and most likely The Dragon Reborn.
October 4th, 2023 at 3:01 PM ^
Wheel of time? really? One piece babyyy
October 4th, 2023 at 3:55 PM ^
You may have convinced me to give WOT season 2 a try after the travesty that was season 1.
October 4th, 2023 at 10:18 PM ^
I'm debating it more now too. Seth's endorsement isn't usually a good thing to me, but his issues with season 1 align with my problems with it too.
October 4th, 2023 at 4:32 PM ^
Is Rolder injured?
October 4th, 2023 at 5:00 PM ^
Yes.
October 4th, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^
so from that game by our defensive line, "maybe not so heroic" Josiah Stewart managed to be selected for B1G defensive co-player of the week honors?
October 4th, 2023 at 5:01 PM ^
He was great except for his coverage. And those awards are always stat-based, so two sacks will get you on it.
Remember when Brandon Herron was Big Ten PotW?
October 4th, 2023 at 5:32 PM ^
Great analysis / writeup Seth! Love the WoT references.
Did have one quibble though... there's no way Barrett recognized there was a tip drill on and took down the slot to prevent him from participating. Barrett's head was fully turned towards the slot basically as soon as the ball is tipped. Think he was just attempting to tackle on the (assumed) catch.
October 4th, 2023 at 10:20 PM ^
Eh, could have heard it or heard someone shout that it was tipped. Reaction seems to imply he knew.
October 4th, 2023 at 5:36 PM ^
Until further notice, in Minter we trust. Seems like the issues with the slants were based on Minter installing or trying something new, and using the game as a live-practice in that respect. And it seems like the other secondary issues were based on Moore and Johnson needing to get back into game shape and up to game speed. This is not Don Brown having to try something weird to cover for deficiencies. I'm not concerned.
That said, the comments about sluggo routes vs. Minny make sense. As in Field of Dreams, "look for low and away, but watch out for in your ear."
October 4th, 2023 at 6:31 PM ^
Several of the videos in this one load extremely slowly for me. Same problem if I load them in youtube (where I am treated to an unskippable ad beforehand). Did you change something?
October 5th, 2023 at 12:43 AM ^
I wonder if it's the HDR causing issues. I'm getting a lot of lag when I try and play any of them (tried two browsers)
October 5th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
Given the lack of plays, its more like Game 3 for the secondary. I'm less worried about this.
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