Will the B1G West finally rise?
With the addition of two successful, experienced coaches -- Fickell at Wisconsin and Ruhle at Nebraska, along with the elevation of Illinois's highly regarded DC, Ryan Walters, to Purdue HC -- is it likely that the West may actually become competitive with the East within the next 3-5 years; or at least win a couple of B1G championship games? Can these coaching changes make that much of a difference?
December 16th, 2022 at 5:02 PM ^
No
The incumbents will remain middling. USC can theoretically potentially compete with UM, OSU, PSU...but still no faith in Lincoln Riley building a defense - specifically one that can stop the run in midwest November weather.
December 16th, 2022 at 5:54 PM ^
What you say may be true, but USC will not play all of their November games in the mid-west. IF they enter Nov with 4-5 league wins, all they need to do is win 2 of the Nov league games. That should put them, or any of the other west team, in a good position, except for Illinois (this year).
I'm not saying USC or Nebraska or Wisconsin will win every year, but the three new coaches will definitely make the west more competitive.
December 16th, 2022 at 7:22 PM ^
If Ryan Day is having problems with UM, Lincoln Riley will find it more difficult. OSU is at least built to stop non-Harbaugh offenses in the B1G. If Riley thinks rebuilding his Oklahoma teams in the B1G will win conference titles consistently, I think he is mistaken.
They need to be able to stop the run. I'm sure he's smart enough to realize this, specifically after what Utah (Michigan lite) did to USC twice this year. That said, realizing what he needs to do (get big DT's and physical LB's and safeties) is one thing, going out and doing it is another.
December 16th, 2022 at 7:28 PM ^
Bo, Shhhh… Lincoln Riley = Big 12 Offense. Day / Knowles = Big 12 Defense. I love how those teams could match up. Please, don’t change a thing…
December 16th, 2022 at 5:03 PM ^
I'm dreamin' of a White Christmas!
December 16th, 2022 at 5:06 PM ^
Be much improved? Yes. Compete with the east? No, not until USC arrives at best if we even have divisions at that point
December 16th, 2022 at 7:09 PM ^
Agreed. But I highly doubt we will have divisions in 2024, so the answer is no because the West won’t be competitive next year.
With a 12 team playoff, divisions will hurt the west or number 3/4 team in the conference. If number 1 plays number 3 or 4, whether the lower ranked team is in the east or west, the lower ranked team will probably lose and be out of the CFP.
If number 1 plays number 2, the loser still gets into a12 team playoff, and it doesn’t affect the number 3 or 4 team’s chances of getting it.
it only makes sense, from an overall Big10 representation perspective, to eliminate divisions. Same can be said for the SEC.
I know there are exception years to my thinking above, but in most years, this is what would happen.
December 16th, 2022 at 7:57 PM ^
I’m imagine we do away with divisions given I doubt USC and UCLA Are doing all this for their marquee matchup to be against Iowa. The biggest brands are all in the east UM, OSU, PSU. Those are the matchups the network wants to see as well.
December 17th, 2022 at 7:25 AM ^
If Lincoln Riley can’t build a defense, he’s not competing with anyone for anything of value.
He’s got high flying offenses, but when he sees a physical defense across from that punches his team in the mouth, it can shrivel up quickly. And if this year’s USC defense is any indication of what we should expect to see going forward, then I don’t think Michigan has much to worry about.
December 16th, 2022 at 5:08 PM ^
It will be ready to compete with the east just when the conference drops divisions.
December 16th, 2022 at 5:08 PM ^
It will be interesting to see if Fickell can do it at Wisconsin. Cincinnati was always one of the strongest G5 programs, I don't think it's a very hard place to win games.
Rhule has more of an uphill battle, imo. Nebraska seems to have some deep seated problems and I'm not sure anyone short of an Urban Meyer-level coach could bring them to national prominence.
I don't think either will ever be anything more than what the teams in the West have been since Maryland & Rutgers were added to the conference, but they'll likely be better than they've been for the last few years.
December 16th, 2022 at 6:06 PM ^
Nebraska and Urban are perfect fits for each other.
So perfect, even a Cayman would know it!
December 16th, 2022 at 7:15 PM ^
I think Cindy is much easier than the road for Wisky. Ohio is much more populous than WI and its a football crazed state to boot. Closer to urban centers and the coast.
December 16th, 2022 at 8:08 PM ^
How easy is Cindy? Asking for a friend.
December 16th, 2022 at 9:27 PM ^
Cindy just wants to have fun.
December 16th, 2022 at 9:44 PM ^
The "Cindy" I knew back in the early 80's was very easy...
December 16th, 2022 at 5:09 PM ^
I expect them to be able to compete!
... with each other, and MSU and Maryland.
December 16th, 2022 at 5:12 PM ^
Answer cloudy, ask again later
December 16th, 2022 at 5:16 PM ^
Portal a few more captains from East?
December 16th, 2022 at 5:21 PM ^
Step forward? Probably, but I highly doubt they'll be at parity with the East before the E/W divisions are eliminated.
December 16th, 2022 at 5:42 PM ^
Yeah, the division will be better (it pretty much can't get worse than it was this year). It will likely become deeper, ie the 4th-7th teams (say, Purdue, Nebraska, Minnesota, and NW) could and maybe even should be better than the 4th-7th in the East (MSU, Maryland, Rutgers, and IU).
So the overall West v East division records will improve.
But right now, OSU and Michigan are so good that it'll still be hard for them to win a conference title. Whomever wins it will still be significant underdogs probably until USC joins and can build a defense (if they do).
December 17th, 2022 at 1:10 PM ^
The overall East/West record isn't that lopsided, actually. I forget the East's exact advantage but it's only a handful of games over .500, IIRC. But it's mostly because Rutgers and Indiana absorb a lot of losses.
Where it's really lopsided is at the top (9-0 in Big Ten title games for the East).
December 16th, 2022 at 6:24 PM ^
Yeah, the West has had good coaching before. Their problem is in recruiting. It's tough when the top 3 recruiting classes nearly every year are in the East. I don't see that changing for the current BIG West teams.
December 16th, 2022 at 5:27 PM ^
In a general sense? No.
But they'll get back to one PSU, 10-2 level team every year.
So if that's what you mean...yes.
December 16th, 2022 at 7:34 PM ^
Bear in mind those 10-2 records were built with the benefit of 6 games against the island of tomato cans that is the West.
December 16th, 2022 at 10:37 PM ^
Of course.
December 16th, 2022 at 5:30 PM ^
The Big Ten West will likely be mediocre until it (mercifully) ceases to exist.
December 16th, 2022 at 5:54 PM ^
Fickell took Cincinnati to the CFP, so it seems reasonable that he can take a Wisconsin and get there as well. Nebraska will be a tougher putt. Texas is their primary pool of recruits and they're already competing with all the Texas schools and Oklahoma.
The big wildcard in the next few years is NIL. I think over the long haul, everyone figures it out and the bigger alumni bases will dominant but there will be some growing pains and some teams might figure it out sooner than others and develop a short term competitive advantage.
December 16th, 2022 at 6:16 PM ^
Eh, that Cinci season was a pretty fortunate confluence of events. I think it's tougher at Wisconsin because you have to get through OSU or Michigan (and soon also USC).
I would expect that if he's there for 10+ years, he'll manage to win the conference at least once though, and that should be good enough to get to the CFP.
December 17th, 2022 at 1:13 PM ^
With the 12-team CFP starting in 2024, he won't need to win the conference.
December 16th, 2022 at 5:55 PM ^
That’s what people thought when Nebraska hired Scott Frost. I suspect it will be better, but not as good as the best of the east.
December 16th, 2022 at 5:56 PM ^
It's just harder to recruit in the Big Ten West. Further from the coasts with all the population (harder to get flight home or to get family there), more rural aka farm country not as exciting to recruits, and some say too cold.
Sure a coach could be great, and a lifer, and slowly get national top ranked recruits, but these days they'd more likely jump to another school if they were that awesome of a coach. Only exception may be a coach locally grown with tons of family/community who isn't into the shiny object aka moving to bigger $$ job.
For the rest, it's possible central florida is a more attractive stop for coaches than the big ten west (usc/ucla excepted).
December 16th, 2022 at 5:56 PM ^
Wisconsin from 2015-2019 was at the same level as Penn State was and is - I definitely think that it is possible for one or even a couple of Big Ten west teams to get to that level. Bielema looks to be taking Illinois there. One of Rhule, Fickell or Walters is likely to hit - unlikely that all 4 of those programs can maintain themselves at a top 15 level, especially with USC coming in. At the same time, if we assume the Big Ten East is static (it isn't). it is not crazy to think that in the super-league/expansion phase of the 2020s, the top 15 will be all SEC and Big Ten.
Now, can a Big Ten west team do what Michigan did, and jump from top 15ish to CFP (semifinalist)? I think as a one-off, especially with a 12-team field, yes they absolutely can. Perenially? Well, I'm not sure Michigan can yet be described as a perennial - we've definitely knocked OSU down and taken a step up, as has UGA - but OSU/Clemson/Bama had a 7 season run where they were always in or just barely out. That was kind of crazy. Even in those seasons, OSU's and Clemson's run often felt rickety, Bama always seemed like a machine. But I def think a Big Ten West program is capable of getting to a Penn State/Wisconsin level, and then having a one-off special year that seees them into the CFP semis (a la TCU, LSU, etc).
December 16th, 2022 at 10:11 PM ^
I know LSU has only made the playoffs once, but I don't equate them with TCU. LSU has 3 national championships in the past 20 yrs.
December 16th, 2022 at 5:59 PM ^
Maybe if they spike their gatorade with viagra.
December 16th, 2022 at 6:30 PM ^
Football games last for about 4 hours these days. This could definitely work.
December 16th, 2022 at 6:07 PM ^
I will worry about the West, if divisions are still a thing, once USC and UCLA arrive.
December 16th, 2022 at 6:23 PM ^
Coaching changes can make a HUGE difference. That's why the MGoBloggery spends so much time discussing coaches and their coaching.
In this case, suddenly the Big Ten West has 4 significant changes—Wisconsin, Nebraska, Illinois, Purdue—and #5 if Iowa decides that in addition to a QB and TE, they could use an operational offense.
The Big Ten Waste may start working again.
December 16th, 2022 at 6:35 PM ^
Interesting topic, but there won't be a B1G West as we know it now in a couple of years. It will take longer for any of those teams to get back on track.
December 17th, 2022 at 5:59 AM ^
This.
December 16th, 2022 at 6:57 PM ^
Never say never.
Bielema has done good things at Illinois, and more of that team will be his roster. Minny is getting better - like Illinois, they lost games in the second half of the season they should have won. Northwestern is Fitz, and their roster needs more talent and depth. Fickell will have Wisconsin in contention for the West sooner rather than later. Iowa must change their OC. Nebraska can only improve - could they have a poorer record? I don’t think so, but I do miss Scott Frost. Purdue with a defensive minded coach… that will be interesting.
The West will be more competitive their level of play will improve. However, I do not expect the West division champion to win the CCG in the foreseeable future.
December 16th, 2022 at 9:13 PM ^
There's a chance it will, as long as you properly follow the recipe, especially whatever leavening (baking powder, yeast, etc) it calls for.
December 16th, 2022 at 10:40 PM ^
As long as it's not Iowa next season.
December 16th, 2022 at 10:44 PM ^
Only if they proofed their yeast first, and have it sitting in a warm, isolated place, like in the oven with the light on. Personally I'd recommend a poolish starter to guarantee the B1G rises.
December 16th, 2022 at 10:58 PM ^
The West went exist in its current form after next year. So no, nothing is going to change, it is too late. Fickell's Wisconsin could become nationally relevant, sure. But not soon enough to matter.
December 16th, 2022 at 11:51 PM ^
No. Michigan and OSU (and to a lesser extent Penn State) have a huge advantage in resources and legacy that there is no way all of the West schools with new hires will be able to simultaneously elevate their programs to that level. The East has won 8 straight B1G championship games and I expect that to continue indefinitely.
Sure, it's possible that one year a team could line up all the breaks and win the division, and even be close with the East winner. But I think the max level for a Fickell Wisconsin is significantly lower than an average OSU year.
If anything, B1G West could become like ACC Coastal, where every year a winner emerges semi-randomly out of a mess of tiebreakers and basically equivalent 6-3 teams, and no clear competitor to the top tier East teams.